Viewing Year: 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 10, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 10, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - July 10, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

W—-a–l-s–tIonnc–&—-C–o–. Memben New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 10, 1964 CLEVITE CORPORATION Current Price 46 At its present price, the common stock of Current Dividend 1. 40 Clevite Corporation sells at some 11 1/2 times Current Yield 3.1 Long Term Debt 4. 50 Cum. Pfd. Common Stock -Sales 1964-E Sales 1963 6,631,247 24,031 shs. 1,948,339 shs. 110,000,050 103, 150,000 Earn. Pe r Sh. '1964-E Earn. Per Sh. 1963 4.00 3.57 1964 estimated earnings of 4.00 per share. It has sold at a higher price/earnings ratio than this at some time during every year since 1956 and, indeed, never sold this low in relation to earnings during most of the 1960-61 period – wilen tile stock The failure of Clevite's stock to command a higher multiple probably stems from a tenden cy on the part of the financial community to place the company in one of two categories, Mkt. Range 1964-60 72 1/2 – 31 1/2 neither of which fully describes it. Manyana- lysts, on the one hand, tend to regard the stock as a rather unglamorous auto equipment company and thus unable to command a high multiph. Others tend to regard it as a rather marginal scientific-technological operation whose value was over inflated in the speculative boom of the early 1960's, and should correspond- Mingly be downgraded today. Such an either-or analysis inhiJits a real understanding of ClevLitee.t us take the first conception. Clevite is, admittedl , a to the automo- tive industry. Some two-thirds of its sales are accoed b e earings and the greater number of these find their way into automob' i0 e to draw, moreover, an extremely close correlation between sal nd' ces of auto production. Stop- ping at this point, however, fails to take into t t e ellence of Clevite's bearing , a.multiplicity of sizes and types of bearings. u of process control, these bearings are turned out using I it1\ The efficiencies of this plant are at least partially demon f that the company has been able to increase earn- ings in each of the s ur. , pite the impact of heavy losses in the semiconductor area which reached 1 . 63 and will only be partially mitigated this year. On the other han , 't IS to easy to point to these semiconductor losses and downgrade Clevite along with the r of the semiconductor industry. This divison, located in Natick, Mass., has, admitte y, been a thorn in the company's side in recent years, but it is by no means the company's only venture in the scientific area and, indeed, results of the other tech nological divisions stand in happy contrast to it. Brush Instrument is the largest prOducer of pen-writing oscillographs used in various research applications, and sales of this division have expanded sharply over recent years with gratifying profit rna rgins. Basic research takes place in a number of different areas, including that of Naval armaments and the company's research capability in metallurgy, particularly as it applies to the problem of metal to metal contacts which manifests itself in bearing manufacture, is high. The ring bearing, to be discussed below, is a product of just such research. Clevite, in summary, appears to be selling at record lows in relation to earning power at a time when significant imp.rovement is in the offing. Such improvement couldctake place in a number of areas. (1) Certainly a strenuous effort will be made to eliminate or reverse the, semiconductor losses. (2) Brush, and the other scientific divisions, should add increasing amounts to earnings over the years. (3) A new product, the ring bearing, could have an important impact on the entire bearing field. This bearing, consisting of two concentric ring operates on the principle of metal to metal contact as does the familiar sleeve bearing, but incorporates capabilities of the much more expensive ball, roller and needle bearings. The total market for bearings of this type is over 900 million annually and it is easy to see the significance that even a small penetration of this market would hold for Clevite. While commercial sales of the ring bearing are not imminent, they provide a strong long range plus. From a technical point of view Clevite has an upside objective of 57 followed by considerabl higher levels, with support not too far under the current market. It is being added to our recommended .list.fo.r..long..term .capitl appreciation. Dow-Jones Ind. 847.51 Dow-Jopes Rails 218.20 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl.. m,lrket Jettel IS lIot. nnd under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, nn offer to sell or 8 soliCItatIOn to buy any o;ecunl1C,'s referred to herem The information rtlntllincd herem IS not Junrnntccd as to ac('uracy or and the furnlshmg- thereof not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, n rePresenta. 1wn hy & Co Inc. All eKpr(!'1stQnll of O)lInJon nre subject to chllnfe Without 'Walston & Co, Inc, and OfflcefB, DIrectors. Stockholders and Implov('('s thereof, purchase, sell .md mllY have an interpst III the seCUrities mentIoned hereHI. ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, IlIformnl commontnry on dny to flay market news and not us n complete Additional information With respect to any securltles referred to hereill WIll be fUl nlhc!l upon requeMt \\ X 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 16, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 16, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - July 16, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc. -,;-….;….;… Mem beTs New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS EDMUND W. TABELl'S RECOMMENDED LIST QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH Close Qual- 7/15/64 ity Comment Amerada 82 1/8 A Buy at 80-75. American Can 46 B Buy Amer. Home Pro 68 3/8 A Hold DuPont 262 1/2 A Hold General Elec. 83 5/8 A Buy at 80-75. Gulf Oil 57 1/2 A Buy on dips. Close Qual7/15/64 Norf.& West. 138 1/4 A Penney, J. C. 57 1/4 A Reynolds Tob. 44 1/8 A Royal Dutch 46 1/2 A Std. Oil N. J. 88 1/2 A Comment Buy on dips. Hold for 65 Buy Buy on dips. Hold PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- 7/15/64 Atchison, Top. 35 1/4 A- Beaunit Corp. 33 1/2 B Clark Equip.. 53 1/8 A- Clevite 46 7/8 B Cluett, Peabody 54 7/8 B Conso!. Coal 50 1/4 A- Copperweld Steel 55 B Denver, Rio G 22 B Disney, Walt 44 B Eaton Mfg. 47 1/2 B First Charter F 33 3/8 Fruehauf Trail. 32 7/8 B Illinois Central 66 1/8 B Intern'l Min. Chern. 70 1/8 A- Kansas City So. 48 3/8 A- Kerr McGee 41 1/2 A- Korvette, E. J. 36 1/4 B McDermott, R. J. 27 7/8 B Midland Ross 37 3/8 B Comment Buy on dips Buy Buy at 50-45 Buy Buy at 55 -50 Buy at 50-45 Buy at 53-50 Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy Buy on dips Buy at 70-65 Buy at 48-45 Holdfar 48-52 Hold Buy Hold for 45 Close Qual- 7/15/64 Newmont Min. 37 5/8 A- No. Amer. Car 30 A Penn R. R. 34 3/4 B- Pure Oil 58 1/4 A Rayonier 36 B Reynolds Met. 36 3/4 B RIegel Paper 41 1/2 B Schlumberger 67 A Scoville Mfg 36 1/4 B Southern Rwy 69 3/4 B Stevens, J. p. 41 7/8 B Storer Broad. 45 7/8 B Sundstrand 21 B Swingline A 35 B United Fruit 22 3/8 B U. S. Plywood 34 1/4 A- Univ.Oil Prod. 343/8 B Vornado, Inc. 31 3/8 Comment Buy on dips Buy BUY'on dips Hold for 60-64 Buy at 35-32 Buy at 37-34 Buy at 40-35 Buy Buy Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy Buy Buy Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips LOW- PRICED SPECULATIVE Close Qual- Close 7/15/64 Comment 7/15/64 Amer. Metal Pro 21 7/8 B Buy on dips Microwave 10 7/8 Amer. Radiator 22 3/8 B Buy Mohasco 13 1/2 Audio Devices 10 1/2 B- Hold National Can 18 Braniff Airways 24 1/4 B Hold Pacific Pete 12 7/8 Campbell Chib. 3 3/8 Buy as Spec. Raytheon 23 1/4 El Paso Nat! Gas 20 3/4 B Hold Reeves Bros. 18 Foote Mine ral 17 5/8 B Buy on dips Seaboard W. Air 6 3/8 Gt. West. Finan. 13 Buy on dips Sperry Rand 14 1/4 Hewlett Packard 19 3/8 B Buy on dips Univ. Match 13 1/4 Intern'l Packers 11 1/8 B Hold Varian Assoc. 11 1/4 Mesabi Trust 14 3/4 – Buy for income. Vulcan Mat. 16 1/2 Quality B B BB- B C B B B B Comment Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold for 26 Hold Hold Buy Hold Buy July 16,1964 …. ThiS lIulletm IS not, ami Hn,lr III ell' I he 1t.,.1n olft', to ' II ..ht Illliion to) lmy ,my refer! eu tn h('lcm Th(' inf01 maluJIl cnn. talne, herr'ln IIllt by I;lun 8.. t…. Inc All l aCClIl,Il'V HI .lnri the rmlll-.hlll)t lhclcl)f lIt nd under IIU 1 to be cont.trucd a .. of (,,'inIOn .111 IllhJect to rh.lnj.('(' without & C Inc ,,d Offl'C'r;, …, SwekhuldC'n. and fmplo)et!I thC'rcor, Ilurehae, ,('11 nnd nlny hvc ,m 1I1t1'rC'llt III the '(lIrHIC nlpntlIlC' hClcm TIll … IS Intenderl and 11lC''''Cllted merely n; n RCneral. mformlll tary and not j, Addll\n.il mrrnlHlton \\Itlt re… pcrt In nny '('(!llltle… '('(CII 10 herein \1.111 he ftllll\hed 01)()n rc(uest WN-91.6 ..

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 16, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 16, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - July 16, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

W—a-lsltnocn.&–C-o-. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS EDMUND W. TABELl'S RECOMMENDED LIST QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH Close 9/15/64 Amerada 80 American Can 44 1/2 General Elec. 87 5/S Gulf Oil 57 3/8 Norfolk & West. 1291/2 Qual- J!L Comment A Buy on dips Bf- Buy A Buy on dips A Buy on dips A Buy on dips Close 9/15/64 Penney, JC 59 5/8 Reynolds Tab. 45 Royal Dutch 45 1/8 Std. Oil NJ 86 Qual- A A A A Comment Hold for 65 Buy on dips Buy on dips Hold PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- 9/15/64 Atchison, Top. 33 1f 4 A- Beaunit Corp. 32 3/4 B Clark Equip. 54 5/8 A- Clevite 443/4 B Cluett, Peabody 54 3/8 B Consol. Coal 52 3/4 A- Copperweld Steel 58 1/4 B Crowell Collier 24 1/2 B Denver, Rio G 21 1/4 B Disney, Walt 45 B Eaton Mfg. 46 7/8 B First Charter F 30 Fruehauf Trail. 33 3/8 B Gen'l Dynamics 34 7/8 Illinois Central 62 3/4 B Inte rn 'I Min. Chern. 71 1/4 A- Kansas City So. 45 1/4 A- Koppers Co. 47 3/4 B Korvette, E. J. 34 3/8 B McDermott, J ..R. 32 1/4 B Comment Buy on dips Buy Sell at 60 Buy Buy Buy at 50-45 Buy on dips Buy Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy Buy on dips Buy at 70-65 Buy Buy Hold Buy on dips Close Qual- 9/15/64 Metromedia 38 5/S B Midland Ross 40 3/4 B Newmont Min. 45 1/2 A- N.Amer. Car 31 7/8 A Penn. R. R. 38 3/8 B- Rayonier 37 B Reynolds Met. 33 5/8 B Riegel Paper 41 1/2 B Schlumbe rger 71 A Scoville Mfg 37 1/8 B Shell Oil 49 3/4 A Southern Rwy 64 1/4 B Stevens, J. P. 42 3/8 B Storer Broad. 49 1/2 B Sundstrand 22 B Swingline A 37 5/8 B United Fruit 21 3/4 B U. S. Plywood 38 3/4 A- Varnado, Inc. 30 1/4 Comment Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy at 40-35 Buy Buy Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy on dips Buy Buy Buy Buy on dips Buy on dips LOW-PRICED SPEC ULA TIVE Close Qual- 9/15/64 ity Comment Amer. Metal Pro 22 B Buy on dips Amer. Radiator 22 1/8 B Buy on dips Audio Devices 9 3/8 B- Hold Braniff Airways 22 1/8 B Hold Campbell Chib. 4 3/8 Buyas Spec. EI Paso Nat! Gas 21 1/4 B Hold Foote Mineral 16 1/2 B Buy on dips Gr. West Financial 12 5/8 Buy on dips Hewlett Packard 19 1/8 B Buy on dips Intern'l Packers 11 7/8 B Hold Mesabi Trust 15 1/4 Buy for inc. Close Qual- 9/15/64 !!L Microwave 9 1/2 B Mohasco 14 B National Can 18 B- Pacific Pete 11 3/4 B- Raytheon 23 3/8 Reeves Bros. 17 3/4 B Seaboard W.Air. 65/8 C Sperry Rand 14 B Univ. Match 14 3/4 B Varian Assoc. 13 3/4 B Vulcan Mat. 16 3/8 B Comment Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold for 26 Hold Hold Buy Hold Buy American Home Products (661/8), duPont (272), Kerr McGee (475/8), Pure Oil (62 3/4) and Universal Oil Products (31 1/2) have been dropped from the Recommended List since the list of July 16, 1964. Crowell Collier, General Dynamics, Koppers Company, Metromedia and Shell Oil have been adred. September 16, 1964 ThiS Bulletm IS not, and under no cllcumslnnccs is to be construed as, an ofTet to sell 01 B l'iohcilntlOn to buy any securities refcned to herein. The Information con tained herem by Wlliston & IeS lnl,otIn/,cuoA.rlalnteeu A'l to or Rnd the furnihlnJ. I.'! not, 8.nd under no circumstances 18 to be construed 811, a representation of opinion are subject to Without notice Wal!ton & Co. Inc, and Officers, D.rectors. Stockholders and Employees thercof, purchase. sell and may hale an mterest In the SecUrities mentIOned herem This Bulletin IS Intended nnd presented merely as a general. Informal commen- tary and not DS II. complete analYSIS Additional informatIOn With respect to any referred to herem Will be rurmshed opon request. WN-916

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 17, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 17, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - July 17, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. —–Inc —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 17, 1964 On Friday, all three Dow-Jones avera'ges'm-oved modestly above the previous week's all-time highs. The near term objective on the Industrial average has been reached and, from a technical viewpoint, a consolidating action is probably needed before a wide move in either direction is indicated. The amount of fluctuation in the Industrial average since the first of the year has been remarkably small as compared to price swings in recent years. So far this year the Dow-Jones Industrials have traced only 37 moves up and down in units of five points. This is at the rate of approximately 72 such moves annually. This compares with 122 such swings in 1961, 204 in 1962 and 114 in 1963. Since the averages were then greater than indicated above when the compared to present price mo19v6e1m;.e6nc3t.ps..e,dAos9a result, the congestion areas on the point and figure charts of the various averages are relatively small and show no indication of an important broad move in either direction. The advance from the June 15th low of 796. 90 has been brought about largely by a cessation of the March-June selling pressure rather than any great increase in buying power The 10-week moving totals of volume on the NYSE indicate that downside volume has dropped sharply in recent weeks and is near the lows reached in March. On the other hand, upside volume has so far failed to show a comparable increase. It is well below the highs reached in March, or even in June of 1963. This would seemingly indicate the lack of sizable public participation on the buying side. Considering the increasing number of listed shares, normal volume of trading probably should be around the eight-million-share level rather than the present level of under five million shares. Until broader occurs, the market is vulnerable to selling pressure brought about by ex n INS developments. Regardless of the averages, it has been our t a an ocks, from a techni- cal viewpoint, have been in broad long term area r the past two years. Whether or not this results in a breakout on t mmediate future, or at some later date, is, of o. v su should offer excellent. . long.er-term.opportumttes.–Two ,such -s . -n r- o mTIlended-bst-aTeJ' RayMcDermOlt (28 1/4) and Schlumber er, oJ..tMse companies provide oil well drilling services and an increasi g fut could result from offshore petroleum and gas exploration in th a J. Ra McD i to being a leading factor in the engineering and con- orms, also has sizable oil and gas reserves of its own. Earnings for the twelv s ending March 30th totaled 2.12 a share which was down from 2.70 in the pre' s twelve-month period. Present indications point to earnings of around 3.00 a share in the next fiscal period. Increasing areas are opening up for offshore development. These include the Persian Gulf and the coasts of Mexico, Japan, Alaska, Nigeria and Libya, as well as the North Sea area. McDermott reached a high of 33 in early 1962 and dropped to a low of 19 later in the year. It has built up a sizable potential base pattern with- in this area with technical objectives considerably above present levels. Regardless of im- mediate action, the stock appears, in our opinion, to be a most interesting long term holding Schlumberger, Ltd. should also benefit from new major oil and gas developments. The company provides oil well drilling services including seismic logging of underground form- ations. These services account for 50 of revenues. The other half of revenues are contri- buted by the electronics divisions which industrial control systems, telelI!etry tems for aircraft and missiles, radio and high fidelity kits and television test equipment. Earnings for the twelve months ending March 30th were 4. 20. Technically, the stock has an interesting formation. A high of 981/4, 50 above current levels, was reached early in 1962, and a low of 49 later in the year. Since 1963, the stock has ranged in the 54-75 zone. Recently, the stock has been showing improving relative strength action. The long potential base has a substantial upside potential for the longer term. A new edition of our recommended list will be in the hands of Account Executives earl next week. Two issues, American Can (45 3/8) and Clevite Corp. (46 3/8) have been added since the last edition. Two issues, Libby-Owens-Ford Glass(59 1/2) and Union Bag-Camp Paper (34 3/4) have been removed. Dow-Jones Ind. 851. 35 Dow-Jones Rails 220.98 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIS mnrket Idwr LS nOI. and under no elrcumRtnnces is to be eonstrued as. nn after to sell or a Boh(';ltBtlOn to bu) any !leeuritleH reCl!rred Ito herem The information contamed herem Is not guaranteed as to BCcUrncy or completeness and the !urnlshml! therco! IS not, and undel no circumstances is to be as, a representa- tH.n h & Co Inc All el'pressione of opinion are subJect to ehanJ!e Without notice Walston & Co, Inc., and Officers, Directors. Stockholders and thereot, sell and may have an Interest in the lIecurlties mentlOned herem. ThiS market Jetter is intended and presented merely 8S 8 general. mformal f'omm ..ntnry 6n day to dny market news and not as II. complete annlysis AdditIOnal mformatlon WIth respect to any securltlee referred to herem WIll be hu IIpon request \\ r.; J01

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 24, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 24, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - July 24, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

. . – – — –..-;.- —– – . Walston &- Co. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEnER July 24,1964 Despite a flow of favorable-s-econd quarter earnings reports, the stock market, as measured by the averages, continued its sidewise movement. Friday's closing level of 845.64 on the Dow-Jones Industrial average compares with the 851. 35 closing of the pre- vious week and there were more declines than advances on each day of the week. As noted in last week's letter, the advance from the June low of 796.90 has been brought about by a sharp decline in selling pressure rather than increasing buying power. Rallies of this nature rarely result in a sustained uptrend. Since the upside potential of 850 has been reached, it would appear that a further consolidating period is needed. Since the beginning of the.ye3lr, price ll.Qvements in the Jndustrial average have been indicated by a relativel.y small base and top patterns. Another such pattern may be in the process of forma tion. The next support level is around the 835-825 area. At the moment, there is no indication of a move of great importance in either direction. As we have continually stated, the action of individual issues is of much greater importance than the action of an average. In fact, at the moment, the various industrial averages present a very distorted picture. It would appear that with the Dow-Jones Indus- trials selling at over 100 points higher than the December 1961 intra-day high of 741.30, and over 300 points higher than the June 1962 low of 524.55, that most stocks are selling in new high territory. This is not the true picture. Recently, we tabulated the price action of five hundred leading industrial stocks since 1956. Over 67 of these issues, at their recent highs, were selling lower than their 1956-1961 highs of three to eight years ago. If all of the common stock issues listed on the New York Stock Exchange, plus the speculative leaders of 19!W6196 and American d market, were included, we would probably find that over 80 of , eir recent highs, were selling below the highs of three to eight years ago. to!'Jhe t issues in the Dow-Jones Industrial average, only eleven are selling -1961 highs. Nineteen, or al- most two-thirds, are selling below in the Inaustrfal average r'ea-chenli i e eight years ago. If all t!J.irty stocks -1 ghson the same day, the average would have reached 911 instead of stock reached its high in 1956-1961, each stock declined ei'lod. If each stock reached its low on the same day, the average wou each issue. Since a h a e 4, a decline of 45 from the respective highs of 1al average has advanced sharply. However, if all thirty stocks in the averag e ch eir recent highs on the same day, the Industrial average would have been 890. T 1S still below the 1956-1961 high figure of 911. What does this all mean It means, for one thing, that the general ma rket is not as high as the averages indicate. It also confirms, in our opinin, the thought that the market reached a major top in the 1956-1961 period, a major bottom in the 1960-1962 period and is now in a broad accumulation area that will result in much higher prices in the latter part of the 1960's. This accumulation period will probably continue somewhat longer before the start of a broad advance in which the majority of stocks participate. This concept is somewhat contrary to the general opinion that the market is still in the broad bull market move that started in 1949. If this opinion is the correct one, there must be a corollary. Whenever the high of the fifteen-year bull market is reached, it must be followed by a correction.of major proportions. We do not agree with this opinion. It is our thought that the advance from the 1949 lows ended in the 1957-1961 period and was fully corrected by the 1962 decline – the sharpest percentage drop in twenty-five years. Probably one more decline is needed before a new broad major advance. Such a decline, in our opinion, will hold considerably above the 1962 lows. A one-third to one-half retrace ment of the advance from the 1962 lows to whatever high is made on the present move is the maximum we can envision at the moment. Such a decline, if it occurs, would present a most attractive buying opportunity. Dow-Jones Ind. 845.64 Dow-Jones Rails 220.48 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrh.et letter IS not, lind under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an ofTer to SE'lI or n solicitatiOn to buy any Recurities referred to herein The information ntmnen herem IS not Illnrantced to accuracy or comp!.eteness and the fUTntBtnn, thereof lS not, and unde1 no clrcumatances 18 to be construed 8a, a rep-resenta tiun by Walston & Co, Inc All e'l(presslOns of opimon are suhJcct to chan!'!!! \qthout notice \yalston & Co, Inc.' and OffICers, DIrectors, Stockholders and thereof, I'ul chllse-, sell and may bll\'c nn anterest 10 the securItIes mentIOned hereIn ThiS market letter 18 mtcrld('d and presented merely as a general, informal comm..ntar.j. on dny to day market news and not 08 a complete Ilnalysls AddItIonal informatIOn With reqpect to any securltleB referred to herein be furmqhC'cl upon rcquC!st \\ N 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 31, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 31, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - July 31, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc, Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET LEnER July 31, 1964 The Dow-Jones Industrial average d'eclined to the upper part of the suggested 835-825 support level to reach an intra-day low of 833.47 on Tuesday. This decline, incidentally, was approximately a one-third retracement of the advance from the June low of 796.90 to the re- cent high of 855.19. Since the start of the year, price movements in the Industrial average have consisted of a series of small base patterns followed by an uptrend and a normal tech- nical correction of a third to a half of the previous advance. This has kept the market in sound technical condition. At no time during this period has the market been sharply over- bought or oversold. The near term pattern suggests another consolidating period before a move of any great significance is indicated. In last week's letter we stated that the recent price action of the various Industrial averages has not been an accurate pattern of what has been happening in individua-l-stocks. For example, the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached its 1963 high of 761. 21 in October. At Thursday's close of 839.37, the average was approximately 90/0 above the 1963 high. The table below shows the price performance on each of the thirty stocks in the Average since their 1963 highs. The month in Clqse 7/30/64 which the 1963 1963 High high was rliachedi ' Month Reached salAsdo'v70naontceed.or Decline – Intern'l Harvester Swift & Co. Sears Roebuck 80 52 117 63 45 102 May December September 27 16 15 Standard Oil of N. J. 88 77 December 14 International Nickel 78 69 WJohns Manville 59 52 \/Lay 13 0 Owens Illinois Glass DOW-JONES IN DUS. Texaco Eastman Kodak Woolworth Bethlehem Steel DuPont, DeNemours – 101 839 81 130 29 37 .264 89 Bb 767 , er 75 A. t &j \).122 \\!Apr' W V ember April Decembe-r- 7 7 6 .6 Chrysler General Motors Procter & Gamble American Tel & Tel 5 4 72 5 October 1 October 81 October 71 November 4 4 4 2 Goodyear 43 October 2 Union Carbide American Tobacco U. S. Steel 124 34 58 122 34 58 December April October o2 o General Foods 90 91 September Aluminum Co 68 70 October Standard Oil of Calif. 66 69 September 1 3 4 General Electric 84 88 October 5 American Can 44 47 August 6 Allied Chemical 53 59 December United Aircraft 48 54 January International Paper 32 36 Septembe!' Westinghouse Elec. 35 41 October Anaconda 45 54 June 10 10 11 14 17 Adjusted for split. It is interesting to note that unless the right stocks were bought, the holder of individual issues in the Inaustrial average would not have shown much profit over the past seven to ten months. Only seven of the thirty issues have acted better than the Industrial average. Eleven have shown below average action, two have shown no gain and ten are selling lower than the highs of seven to ten months ago. , rhe only point of the above table is to again stress ou, thought that, c!es pite the new hlghs m the averages,the great bulk of stocks are below thelr 1950-1961 hlghs and are in ou opmion, in a broaa accumulation range that will result in much higher leveIs in the later part of the 1960's. Individual stiYck'S'ar,e'..irRi(!\ti!ferti!ht stages of the techmcal pattern. Some C , lower levels before the start of the broad advance. Others have already built up sufficient po- tential base patterns to indicate the type are in our recommended list. probability of anEaDdMvaUnNceDawt .anTAeaBrEliLeLr date. Issues of thi DDoouwr–JJoonneeis' RInad,l.J 8 4211. 71.0gO WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS not and under no circumstancC'9 IS to be construed as, an offer to eell or a soliCItation to buy any securitIes referred to herem The InformatIOn contmned herem 18 not 110n b)' olston &. Co, Inc. All as to accuracy expreSSIOns of or completeness and OPinIOn are subJect the to furnishi change ng there Without of IS no nohce t, and Walst un on der & no circumstances is to be construed as, n. repreaenwCo, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Empi(j)ee'l thereor purehose sell ond may ha\.e an mterest m the securities mentIOned herem This market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general. mformnl on day to day market nev.s and not as a complete analYBiB Additional mformatlOn with rC'lpect to any securities referred to herem will be furnished upon request WN J01

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 07, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 07, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - August 07, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston Co.&- lnc —– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER August 7, 1964 The wide price swings of the past week were motivated mainly by emotional reactions to the news development rather than by any fundamental change in the economic background. Probably we can expect a continuation of such nervous price action until Election Day with the market moving up and down in response to the swings in foreign and political news. We would expect the price range, however. to be relatively narrow just as it has been for the past six months. The Dow-Jones Industrial average first reached the 800 level about six months ago in the average has roughly held in a sixty-point trading area witlya high of 855. 19, and a low of 796.90, or a range of 80/0. At the moment, the Industrial average is right in.the middleoLthis six-month trading area. The low for the past week was 820.78 and, at that level, most of our shorter term technical indicators had reached or approached oversold territory on a short term basis. Absence of any disturbing news over the weekend might result in a rally toward the upper part of the trading area. How ever, we would not expect such a rally to carry into new high territory at this stage of the market pattern. From a technical point of view, the Industrial average reached its upside objective at 850 and time will be needed to form a new pattern that would indicate higher price levels. On the downside, there is strong support at the 820-800 level. If unfavorable news developments resulted in a decline below the June low of 796.90, the next support level would be around the 775-765 level. The ma rket high prior to the Kennedy assassination low was 767.24. Probably the Industrial average will continue to hold in the six-month trading range of roughly 850 to 800 for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, there are individual situations, such as the following, that appear interesting. 0 Seaboard World Airlines, in the low-priced se..s,;tion f u ended list, rose 1 3/8 points on heavy volume, closing at 7 3/8. th' rength was a Civil Aeronautics Board decision giving all-cargo carrierE\\ as board, the exclusive right to sell large volume cargo space on Q I' carriers, air freight forward- ers and bulk shippers. This u important change in the air freight traffic'picture and could'be of-gr-eat e t in addition to the CAB ruling e speculative attraction at this time. In 1955, Seaboard arne s aPe and sold at a high of 67 1/2. It achieved these earnings with propert os ue of some 2 1/2 million, and the company had no debt. In the ensuin ; perty has increased to over 40 million, but debt, at the end of December 6, w vel' 33 million. Deficits were incurred in every year be- tween 1957 and 1961, an e book value per common share has decreased from over 28 to a minus figure. The ck sold as low as 2 1/2 in 1961. Clearly, Seaboard's equipment purchases during the past decade have been somewhat less than profitable. There is, however, some evidence that the heavy investment of bor- rowed funds during the past ten years is beginning to bear some fruit. Seaboard, as a carg airline, engaged primarily in carrying freight across the north Atlantic, is a beneficiary of a stable rate structure, longer average flights, and high rates which are providing the com- pany with excellent yields per revenue ton mile. New routes will permit the company to serve Europe on an area basis at substantial savings in cost and improvements in utilization The CAB decision, if it stands, will also stimulate growth in volUIlE,The effect of all this on earnings could be dramatic. The leverage provided by Seaboard's huge debt is, after all, a two-edged sword. Just as leverage led to a dramatic collapse of earning power 111 the late 50's, it can lead to an equally dramatic improvement as equipment utilization improves. Indeed, some improve- ment has already been noted. Earnings have expanded from a deficit of 1. 08 in 1961 to 29 in 1962, 47 in 1963, and a projected 80 in 1964. Future expansion could be at an even greater rate. Obviously speculative, the shares, nonetheless, appear attractive for those individuals who are willing to assume substantial risk in return for the prospect of substantial gain. From a technical point of view, the stock has held in a narrow trading range since 1961. An ultima te upside would indicate considerably higher prices. Dow-Jones Ind. 829.16 Dow-Jones Rails 213.02 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter 19 not, and under no circumstances 18 to be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitatIOn to buy any eeeUrltles referred to herem The Information ('untamed herem is not gUllranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furRlshlng thereof 18 not. and under no circumstances 15 to be construed as, a repre!lenta- tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc All expreSSIOns of opmlon are subJect to change without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Dlrcctors, Stockholders and Employees thereot, purchase, sell and may have an interest In the secUrities mentioned herein, ThlS market letter 18 Intended. and presented merely as a general, mformal comm.mtsry on day to dRY market news and not as a complete analYSIS AdditIOnal mformatlon With respect to any securllJes referred to herem will be furnished upon request WN .301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 14, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 14, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - August 14, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. —–Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFfices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEnER August 14, 1964 -FilE CROWELL-COLLIER PUBLISHING CO. Current Price 24 The regular reader of investment liter- Current Dividend 4/0 Stock ature is, no doubt, already familiar with the Current Yield growth potential inherent in companies ser- Long Term Debt Common Stock 25, 205, 700 3,396,276 shs. ving American education. Myriads of statistics have been cited describing the projected futu growth of school and college age population Sales – 1964-E Sales – – 110150,,010600,,-000000- and the effect that this growth is expected to or-textBooks antFanciHary . Earn. Per Sh. 1964-E Earn. Per Sh. 1963 1. 50 1.31 Mkt Range 1964-1961 45 1/4 – 133/4 Includes 11,787,600 4 1/2 Conv. Deb. due 1981, convertible into common materials used in education. On this basis, the common stock of Crowell-Collier appears to have a good deal of speculative appeal. The company is perhaps the only operation with an entrenched position in four major areas of the Education Industry. These are textbook at 40.43 a share, and 5,418,000 5 Conv. Deb. due 1983, convertible into common at 15.38 a share. publishing, encyclopedias, home study courses and supplemental rna terials. The growth of Crowell's sales in each of these areas bears eloquent witness to their attraction. Sales of encyclopedias and other books sold Subscription Book Division have grown almost steadily from 121/2 million 19 apeak of 42 million in 1962. School and college textbook sales have increaffj 5 i-in 1960 to 25 million in 1963. LaSalle Extension University, the y 0 study division, has al- most tripled sales since its acquisition in 1961, and unt or 12.6 million of revenues last year. Crowell, in addition, is the ra – tations, Brentano's Book Store, – .. 0 ,,' tho .om,,y ae'm. earnings record over the pas c than impressive and accounts, undoubt- edly, for the relative s is!ia n of the stock compared to that of other textbook publishing compan- s. e t' c Clered, however, that the years since 1956, when the company discontinu m a' operations, have been largely years of acquisition and rebuilding, it become app t that the past record is a less than accurate guide to future potential. When the co y discontinued magazine publishing, the encyclopedia division became its only majo source of revenue. Since then it has acquired the Macmillan Compan in 1960, LaSalle Extension University and the Free Press of Glencoe in 1961, and other small operations including Brentano's in 1962. The integration of these companies into the Crowell-Collier operation has taken time and, until recently, penalized efficiency. Recent results, moreover, have been hurt by the entry into the paperback book field in late 1961. The paperback division produced heavy losses in 1962 and, to a lesser degree, in 1963. Losses from this division have now, it is believed, been eliminated. Moreover, extensive financial realignment has been accomplished. Improved cost and budgeting controls have been established over the past year and bank debt has been substan- tially reduced. As a result of all this it appears that Crowell is now ready to demonstrate the earnings growth to be expected from a company serving so many growing areas.. Indeed, in the past two years earnings have begun to increase more in line with sales growth, which has been -steady and rapid since 1957. From a low of 91 per share in 1962, per share results moved to 1.31 in 1963, and should be slightly better than 1. 50 in 1964. The company has followed a policy since 1959 of paying an annual 4 stock dividend in orde to conserve cash and no change in this policy is anticipated in the near future. Selling at sixteen times estimated 1964 earnings, a considerable discount vis-a-vis comparable companies, the stock appears -attracti;eJol'.oapital gains purposes. From a technical point of view the stock moved-liIp'alDngW-ith.theothe-p''Publishing companies to a high of 45 1/4 in 1961. It reacted to a 1963 low of 13 3/4 and has since then formed a substantial base in the 14-26 range. Eventual upside breakout from this range would give the stock a long range upside potential of 49-54. It is being added to our recommended list for capital appreciation. Dow-Jones Ind. 838.81 Dow-Jones Rails 213 59 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO INC ThlB mnrkd letter IS not. and under no clrcumstancCS Is to be construed as, an olter to sell or !l soliCitatIon to buy any securities r.cferred to herein The InformatIon cuntained hcrem Is not jtuarlmteed as to accuracy or complctencss and the not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed all, a tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc All ellpressions of opinion are 8ubJect to c;hange Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, at'ld Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Fmployees thereof purchtlllC on day sell and may to day marke have t new an sa In nd terest not a I s n a the SecUrities mentIOned herem This market letter is mtended complete analysll, Additionailnformation With respect to any and presented merely 88 a general, securities referred to herein furnished upon request.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 21, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 21, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - August 21, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston & Co. … Members New YOI'k ,Stock Ex,change NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEnER August 21, 1964 There would excited about the price action of a stock that has been fluctuating between 851/2 and 793/4 for the past six months. That is what the Dow- Jones Industrial Average has been doing percentagewise since late February. Furthermore, the amount of fluctuation within the trading area has been so small that neither a sizable po- tential top pattern nor a sizable potential base pattern has been formed. Probably the mar- ket will continue-to hold within the rough confines of the 850-800 range for the foreseeable future. Volume indications point in this direction. In recent weeks, total volume has declined quite sharply with most of the decline brought about by lowered buying power rather than any sharp increase in selling pressure. On our graphs of total volume of trading on the New Yor Stock Exchange for the past thirty-five trading days', the upside volume has dropped — – 26,756,000 shares while the downside volume has increased only 352,000 shares. This is a rough estimate based on the percentage of advancing and declining stocks on each day of trading. It obviously denotes uncertainty and a lack of buying interest despite a rising earn- ings pattern in most companies and a fundamentally sound economic background. The present market appears to be dominated by emotional factors rather than fundamentals. This is not unusual. In the past, the market has probably moved contrary to the immediate trend of earnings 650/0 of the time. Despite the sidewise movement of the averages, there have been many price moves of importance in individual stocks and groups in both directions. The airlines are a case in point. Readers of this letter will recall that this group was one of our favorites at the 1962 lows. As noted in the table below, the airlines had a a period of less than two years. Western Airlines showed a 529 advance from 1 ow roughly 7 to the high of 44 reached in April of this year. Of the nine t eta, Eastern Airlines had the smallest percentage advance at 1690/0. The avera as compared with a rise of 63 in the Dow-Jones Industrial e time period. 196' Low /, to 1/' Re' C10 8/21/64 . .. – .. –. National Airlines Northwest Airline Pan Ame r. World Trans World Air. United Airlines Western Airlines 7 43 49 42 34 48 40 65 43 44 37 34 41- 33 45 – 36 31 – 25 35 – 28 51 – 43 32 – 26 511/4 541/8 31 3/4 401/4 49 35 Most of these stocks reached their 1964 highs in April of this year. At that level, most issues had reached the upside potentials of the bases formed in the 1960-1962 period and ap- peared in need of a technical cOrrection and a consolidating period before the long term ad- vance was resumed. It was our thought that a one-third to one-half correction of the advance from the 1962 lows to the 1964 highs, 'followed by a consolidation period, was the probable price pattern. This would be normal technical procedure in a group that probably was tempo- rarily overbought, despite a most favorable long term outlook. In the table above, which is adjusted for stock splits and stock dividends, several of the issues are approaching the point of normal correction and shou ld be watc..h.. ed closelyfo,r….,.,l…o.–.n.. g ter-m-buying-.–o pportunit,i..es. T… h'etr downside potentials of the teclinical patterns formed since April are very close to the one- third to one-half retracement figures noted above. It is interesting to note that sharp decline, of 200/0 and more in this group have had no effect on the general market pattern. This cO)ltin- ues to point up our market thought that the action of individual stocks beam little relationship to the price action of the averages. In our recommended list, this letter attempts to pick out individual situations that will show above profits at the appropriate time. We suggest the sale of Pure Oil (60) which was re'commended il. the 40-38 range late in 1963. There have been two offers to buy this issue at 60 and 65. It may move moderately higher, but we suggest a switch into Shell Oil (47 3/4) which we will review in detail in a later letter. Dow-Jones Ind. 838.62 Dow-Jones Rails 211.38 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is flot, Dnd under no circumstances is to be construed DS, an to sell or contained herem 111 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlShlrilt thereof So solicitation to buy IS not, and under no Dny securities ref circumstances ill etorrebde to herein construed The in!ormntlon 8.8, a representa- tIOn by Walston & Co. Inc., All expressions of opimon are BubJeCt, to change Without notice Walston & Co. Inc. and Offlcen. Directors, Stockholders and E I yees thereof purchase sell and may have an Interest In the lIecurities mentioned herein. ThiS market letter Is Intended and presented merely as a general. Jt;on day to day market neW8 and not as a complete analysis. Additional mformation with respect to any securities referred to herein furnished upon request (

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 28, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 28, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - August 28, 1964
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COA.ST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET.LETT.ER, —- August 28, 1964 – —- GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 33 none One of the more noteworthy market develop- ments of the past summer has been the sharp improvement in relative strength of aerospace issues Long Term Debt 2. 90 cum. conv. pfd. Minority Interest Common Stock 99,000,000 1, 663, 634 shs. 13,299,292 9.998, 259 shs. Earn. Per.Sh. 1964-E – – 3. Earn. Per Sh. 1963 4.97 Earn. Per. 1963 (Adj.) 3.28 Since April, the aerospace index has advances al- most 15/0 versus a 3 rise in the 500. The reasons for this improvement are many, but most important, perhaps is the growing realization that, despite the nuclear test ban treaty, it is unlikely that be any substantial reduction in de- fense spending or aerospace contracts. Stocks of most aerospace companies are sell- Mfrt.Range 1964-63 331/4 – 23 1/2 Adjusted to assume full tax payment. ing at modest multiples of 1963 and projected-1964 results, and many companies are of interest. How- ever, General Dynamics incorporates a number of elements which seem to make it attractive at this time. These elements include the TFX contract, which should lend both stability and growth to earnings in the late 1960's, the turn around from the 1960-61 commercial fet debacle, whose momentum continues even today. the identification with the nuclear submarine program, and broad diversification. General Dynamics is, indeed, diversified. Sales general cate- gories, including aircraft. missiles and space, submarine e and industrial. During 1963 the Electric Boat Division launched m es and current backlo is 17 vessels. The company produces the Atlas rock. e Te r and Tartar missiles, and through its Stromberg-Carlson Division, it isejO 0 r of telephone equipment. Its General Atomics Division is active v nt uclear power stations, and anothe divisionpLiquid.Carbonic. is amajor – 0 om Throughout the latter e potential inherent in the company's operation was widely recognize s ck\v\;;; speculative favorite selling as high as 685/8 in 1957. Then of uced profit margins,culminating in the unparallele loss of 341 milli' t of the Convair 880 and 990 jetliners. Most of this wa written off against 1 1 0 m nd the company showed a deficit of 14. 32 per share in that year. At the end of 196 1 erm debt was up to 250 million, short term borrowings were 90 million, and the c any had a precariously low net working capital of under 50 millio Dividends were eliminated and in the 1962 market break, the stock sold as low as 20. In 1962, Mr. Roger Lewis took over as president of the company and a new manage- ment team was gradually installed. Since then, progress has been encouraging. Pre-tax ea ings rose in both 1962 and 1963 and will show another gain in 1964. although reported figures will show a decline due to expiration of the tax-loss carry forward. Profit margins have widened and in 1963 they were back at the level of the mid-1950's. Short-term debt has been completely eliminated. Long term debt has been reduced by more than 50 million. Working capital has increased to 188 million. and the company, under a modified debt agreement, is now in a positin to resume dividends. In short, the progress of the past three years is nothing less than remarkable. Meanwhile, the company is still selling for less than 'nine times estimated 1964 results. Results of the TFX contract have yet to be reflected to any significant degree in earnings, and this source will probably provide a continuing flow of income throughout the latter part of the 1960's. The nuclear submarine program should continue to be profitable and growth should be shown in numerous of the company's other operations. From a technical point of view the base formed in the 24-33 area indicates a sizable long term upside potential. The stock is being added to our Recommended List for capital appreciation. Dow-Jones Ind. 839.09 Dow-Jones Rails 207.49 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter 18 not, and under no eireumstance'll 18 to be construed as, an ofter to sell or a 801ieltatlon to buy D!'y securities referred to herein The Information contained herem is not guaranteed 8S to accurney or completene!l8 and the furnishing thereof 16 not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a representa- tion by Walston & Co Inc. All cJpre!lsions of opinion are subject to ehl'lnge wltbout notice. Walston Co., Inc., and Offlcel'll, Directore, Stoekholders and Employees thereof sell and may have an interest in the securities mentioned herein. This market letter ie intended. Ilnd presented merely 8e a general, on day to day market news and not as a complete analySIS. Additional information with respect to Bny eecurlties referred to herein will be furnished upon request. WN 301

Download PDF