Viewing Month: December 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - December 04, 1964
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Walston &Co. Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 4, 1964 There is nothing so disturbing to the stock market as uncertainty. The monetary prob- lems of Great Britain and the increase in the British bank rate, followed by a rise in the Federal Reserve rediscount rate, raised some doubts about the possible effect of these moves on our own banking structure and on our own forward moving economy. The result of this uncertainty was a sharp decline in the market in a relatively short time period. From an intra-day high of 897.00 on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on November 18th, the mar- ket tumbled some thirty-six points in ten trading days to an intra-day low of 861. 08 on Wed- nesday. The decline carried down into the two months trading area between mid-September and mid-November and this week's intra-day low just about equalled the intra-day low of 861. 42 reached on October 15th. – — — – – – – – — The sharp decline has brought several of our technical indicators into or close to oversold territory on a short term basis. The downside potential of the trading area built up since mid-September indicates a possible decline to 855-845. This coincides with an initial support level at the July and August highs of 855.19 and 847. 19.At this week's low of 861. 08, this area was closely approached. Tax-loss selling in December usually brings about a mar- ket correction of which the extent and timing is predicated on the amount of tax-loss selling. In years like the present, when the market has been moving higher for most of the year, the tax selling pressure is slight and the low for December usually takes place early in the month. After some possible further near term irregularity, we would look for the market to move higher for the balance of the month and into January. We stated the following in the letter of November 20th Since the beginning of the year the market, as meas e Industrial Average, has moved slowly higher. The percentage e c 0 far een 17, a modest rise as compared to past bull markets. The d m v nt has consisted of a series of advances averaging 3 or 4 a ow ing shelf and an ultimate up- side breakout into new high territory. The la t – ewi ovement was relatively lengthy and lastedJrom mid-Septemberuntil e t on–Monday.-At-W-ednesday's intrao- — day high of of 874.11. 897.00,th e From a,t h points from last week's closing level the two-month base around the 870 level suggests a rise to fo h onsolidating period before the next move of im- portance. Somewh g i e e of these consolidating periods in the averages will turn out to be the sm . st' tional top of intermediate term significance. There is, however, no indication f s a development at the moment. Since the Kennedy assassina- tion low, each new high' e average has been confirmed by a new high in our breadth index and this action was repeated during the past week. Furthermore, the industrial average has held above its 200-day moving price average on every decline since early 1963, thus indica- ting no loss of momentum. The average price of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average for the past 200 trading days now is at 835. The only technical indicator that has given a warning signal of a loss of momentum is the 25-week moving average of volume which reached a high in May and has been moving downward since that time. In the meantime, regardless of the action of the averages, individual issues have been going their own merry way, both up and down. In the later stages of a general advance, some stocks that have lagged behind the mar- Iket often break out of accumulation patterns on the upside for worthwhile moves. We see nQ reason at the moment to change the above opinion. The upside potential was reached at 897 and, at this week's low, the downside potential was nearly reached. Before a wide move is indicated in either direction, a new technical pattern must form. The breadth index during the past week has dropped sharply, but there is as yet no divergence from the general market pattern. The 200-day moving average is now at 840 and still well below the industrial average. However, the market must continue to to ahea.d of the . moving average. Total volume continues to drop on a 25-week baSlS wlth a conhnued warmng of a loss of momentum. The present phase of the market could be another consolidating like the several witnessed during 1964, or it could be the start of a distributional top of at least intermediate term significance. From a technical viewpoint, we will probably not get the answer until the early part of 1965. Dow-Jones Ind. 870. 93 Dow-Jones Rails 210. 55 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter 19 not, and undcr no circumstances IS to be construed 8S. nn offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy Bny securltws referred to herem The mformatlon cnntnined herem IS not l.nmrantecd a6 to accuracy or completencss and the furnishing thereof IS not. Rnd under no clfcumBt.nncc'I IS to be construed as, B representa- tIOn by Wnlston &. Co, Inc All expreSSions of op18lOn nre subJeet to chnnlte Without notice Wnlston & Co, Inc, nnd Officers. Directors, Stockholders nnd Fmllinyees thereof sell nnd may have an 18ter('8t In the securatles mcntmncrl herein ThiS market letter IS 18lcnrled and presented merely ns a general. IIlfnrmal c('lmm.. on day to day market news and not as a complete nnniysis Arldltionnl mformatlon With 1e5JCCt to any securlhes referred to herein \\'iIl be fUTnl;hcrl upon request \\;0.. 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - December 11, 1964
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Walston &Co. Inc ;;…—- Members New York Stock Exclu1nge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 11, 1964 The market declined further during the past week and at Thursday's intra-day low of 858.46, the Dow-Jones Industrial average had dropped below both the December 2nd low of 861. 08 and the October 15th low of 861. 42. The Industrial average has now broken the up- trend line extending back to the Kennedy assassination low of 710 and is touching an even longer uptrend line extending back to the Cuban crisis low of 550 reached over two years ago in October, 1962. This uptrend line has several contacts up through the Kennedy assassination low and the June low of this year at 796.90. A decisive downside penetration of this line would indicate the end of the two and one-half year upswing from the May-June 1962 low of 525 and a prior consolidation period before the advance is resumed. Jusni6w far a decline could carry' is obviously uncertainat-themoment – The -topping out pattern is probably not complete either in terms of the averages or in individual stocks. However, we expect no more than a moderate decline that might retrace a third to a half of the advance from the 1962 lows to whatever highs are reached on the present move. This would apply to individual stocks rather than the averages. Considerable price movements in individual stocks and groups could take place at various time periods and not have as grea an effect on the averages as if they all occurred at the same time. For example, many of the airline issues retraced a third of their steep advance from the 1962 low to the April 1964 high in the period between April and September of this year without having any great effect on the average. The market, from a technical viewpoint, appears to be building a distributional top tha may take some further time before it is completed. We the distributional top built up since mid-September indicat a last week's letter that ecline to the 855- 845 level. This Monday's advance back to an tential top, and an 835-830 downside objective is now be reached on the present move is problematica Th h 8 1. 3 s broadened the po- ible. her this objective will s pport level at the July-Augus high of 855.19 and 847.19, and most of our s t rm sold territory. Unfavor.able-news ts ul nical indicators have entered ove territory, but considering market to reach a low some ti be normal technical action for the and stage a year-end rally that could last at least until the a Considering e technical background in a market that has already reached a mature sta deve ent, such a rally should be looked upon with considerable suspicion. If such a ra yo rs, we would advise building up a partially liquid position, if you have not already d so. This letter has for a considerable pepiod of time advised sell- ing on strength in order to build up 250/0 liquidity. It now appears doubtful that the anticipated year-end rally will carry into new high territory, but an advance to the 880-890 area is a possibility. This would broaden the present top pattern and indicate the probable extent of the decline. Just as the advance since the first of the year has been highly selective, so would we expect the decline or consolidating period to be equally selective. Many individual stocks that have broken out on the upside of long term accumulation patterns indicate a possible dip to the top of these areas prior to an ultimate resumption of the advance. The issues in our recommended list have been selected because of their extremely in- eresting long .term potentials. A decline back to support levels would indicate, in our op!.nion nother buying opportunity. -Clevite (42), for example, which has just sold its unprofitable semi-conductor division, is near the 40 support level. General Dynamics (35) has declined from 41 and is now near the 35-33 support level. Seaboard Airline down from a high of 57, is near a 45 support level. Copperweld Steel (52), down from 2, is near the 52-50 support level. This stock is now selling at approximately ten times estimated 1964 earnings. Riegel Paper (41), down from 45, is in the 42-39 support level. Metromedia (41) 's also close to downside support levels, as is Newmont Mining (43). Other issues in our recommended list for long term capital appreciation will be mentioned in subsequent letters. ow-Jones Ind. 864.34 ow-Jones Rails 205.52 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This mnrket letter is not. and under no cIrcumstances IS to be Clnstrued as, an offer to sell or a sohcltatlon to buy al)Y seeurltles r.eferred to herem 1'he information contained herem IS not guaranteed all to nccurtlcy or completeness and the tbereoC 111 not, and under no to be construed ao, a tlon by Walston & Co Inc. All expressions of opInion are uhJect to change without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and l;mpoyees thereof, sell and may have an Interest in the securities mentioned herem. This market letter io mtended and presented merely as general, Informal commontary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Additional informatIOn With respect to any seeuflttes referred to herem will be furnished upon request \\,N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - December 18, 1964
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Walston &Co. ';lnc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET LEnER December 18, 1964 After reaching an-intra–da-y10w of 850.19 on Wednesday, down over 14 points from the previous week's close, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average regained all of the lost ground, and more, and closed Friday at 868. 73, up 4. 39 on the week. In our opinion, the market, on Wednesday probably reached its low for the present phase of the decline from the 897.00 intra-day high of November 18th. While there will probably be some scattered tax-loss selling in individual issues until the year end, the trend of the market should be upward for the balance of the month and into the ea,rly part of 1965. All of our short term technical in- dicators entered oversold territory during the past week and the industrial average reached a logical support level in the area of the July-August highs of 855. 19 and 847. 19. Just how far the traditional year-end rally will carry is problematical. As far as the averages are concerned, from a technical viewpoint, the upside potential was reached at the November intra-day high of 897.00. A new base pattern must form before any sizable ad- vance is indicated. This will require time. Furthermore, there is' considerable overhead supply in the 870-890 area that will be difficult to penetrate in the immediate future. The decline to 850 has broken most of the uptrend lines extending from the Cuban crisis low of 1962 and the Kennedy assassinati.on low of 1963, and there is a distinct probability that the market is in the process of forming a distributional top of at least intermediate-term'signif- icance. As yet, the potential top pattern formed is of no great importance, but a rally into the overhead supply could broaden the potential top pattern both in the averages and indivi- dual stocks and indicate lower levels if the December low enough uncertainty in the pattern to suggest a e )\fa)Jd in 1965. There is general market and the building up of some reserve buying on This letter believes that the action of is of much greater importance market. our occasions in which the action of t , . . .,fteeos,tber.eJaYeJ,o.olli, et outweighed the price trends in indi- idual issues. The market selective over the years and indiVidual stocks often move in cont to maintain an investe s' . 0 n al market trends. Therefore, it is our policy . es in issues that appear to be in a favorable long term uptrend. Ho r casions in the general market pattern when interme- diate term correction c ur offer extremely favorable buying opportunities. These changes in trend are ofte ought about by changes in investor confidence rather than in any great change in the ec mic pattern. In order to take advantage of these buying opportuni- ties it is necessary to build up a buying reserve while the rna rket is strong. This letter was fortunate enough to turn quite bearish in late 1961, and extremely bullish in mid-1962. We suggested building up a buying reserve in 1961 which was available during the buying oppor- tunities of 1962. In the last six months we have been somewhat cautious. We have advocated the continued investment of 750/0 of funds in issues with favorable uptrends, but the gradual building up of a 250/0 cash xeserve on strength. The situation today is vastly different from the dangerous market pattern of 1961, but both the stock market and the business pattern have reached a mature stage of development and, with a change in the investor confidence factor, could work somewhat lower during 1965. Such a decline, if it occurs, will probably be relatively modest. The pattern is not complete;-'but the worstweenvision at the moment, is a decline to somewhere around the long term support level in the area between the high of 767 reached prior to the Kennedy assassination low and the 1961 high of 741. In the meantime, individual issues will continue to show favorable price action. Last week we mentioned several issues in our recommended list that were near support levels. Additional issues include Southern Railway (58 3/4) down from a high of 73 and with a yield of 4.80/0, EI Paso Natural Gas (21 5/8) with a yield of 4.50/0, and Vulcan Materials (16 3/4) which is selling at 9 times the 1. 79 earnings of the last twelve months. Dow-Jones Ind. 868. 73 Dow-Jones Rails 206. 10 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS nlllrkct letter IS not. and under no drcumstances 16 to be construed as, an offer to sell or ( ontained herem IS not gUArnnteed as to accurACY or completeness and the furmshmg thereof a sohcltation to buy 111 not. and under no nn)' securlttes r.eferred Circumstances l!I to be to herem construed ATSh, ea information representn. 'on by W,.lston & Co. In(', All expreSSIOns of opinion are to change Ydthout notice Walston &. Co, Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and EInmCpolroryo(n'l('8cotmhmer'elfolft,nrpyurocnhdasaey, sell find may have an mterest In to day market neWl! and not 88 8 the SeCurities mentlOned herem. ThiS market letter 18 mtended and pr.esentcd merely jl.S a general, complete analYSIS AddItIOnal mformatlOn With respect to any securities referred to herein Will be furnished upon requeot WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 24, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 24, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - December 24, 1964
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Walston &Co. – – – Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 24, 1964 EL PASO NATURAL GAS COMPANY Current Price 21 El Paso Natural Gas has in the past Current Dividend 1. 00 two years, at least, been a rather dis- Current Yield Long Term Debt 4.80/0 851,218,266 appointing holding for the growth-seekin investor. True, it has had a certain at- Minority Interest 10,261,314 traction for those primarily concerned Cum. 1st pfd. stock Conv.Cum. 2nd pfd. stk. -Commori-StocR' .. 755, 750 shs. with income. The 1. 00 dividend has 22,784,263 shs provided a close-to-50/0 yield and this bdei veindleanrdg;e-liyn -traexcaebnlte' yteoa rt hs ea t'least, holder h as as a Total Oper. Rev. 1964-E 512, 000,000 return of capital rather than ordinary Total Oper. Rev. 1963 512,250,000 income. However, its price performanc Earn. per Sh. 1964-E Earn. per Sh. 1963 Mkt. Range 1964-63 1. 50 1. 21 23 1/4 – 17 –the stock has fluctuated between 23 1/ and 15 1/8 since early 1962 — has been singularly uninspiring. Indeed, the present price compares with a 1957 high of Includes 59 million conv. into common at 28. Convertible into common at 26. 67 35 1/2. At the core of this investor disenchantment is, in all probability, the com pany's difficulties. EI Paso is,. of compames, brmgmg gas from Texas and Canada mto the P California. It also has various producing propertiesI') major gas pipeline 1 'c thQ.est and southern n g a t e s some 130/0 oUts gas needs. As a gas'pipeline, however, its rates ration by the Federal and the, financial press over the rs has been replete with stones of rate lncreases dlsallowed and urrently, however, all major rate cases have been settled and with 0 one from the horizon, EI Paso is positiori'to reflect in gas demand in the area which it Recent studies t natural gas demand in the southern California market will expand y e eseeable future. EI Paso has recently been authorize to increase its deliv to i ea on a temporary basis and hearings regarding a perma- nent increase are now The possible award of a certificate for increased delivery to southern California substantially increase the earnings base of EI Paso. Other areas old promise for growth. The company is an important petro-chemical producer and is engaged in a number of highly interesting joint ventures, It jointly owns a polypropylene facility with Rexall Drug & Chemical and it is to participate with Beaunit Corporation in a jOint nylon production venture. Oil and gas production interests are located in the western United States, the Gulf of Mexico area, and the French Sahara. A major question to be resolved in El Paso's future concerns its northwestern division, formerly Pacific Northwes t Pipeline. The courts have ruled that the original Pacific Northwest acquisition was in violation of the anti-trust laws, and the compary must divest itself of the acquired property, There is some question at the moment whether the stock will be spun off, sold, or a combination of the two, but recent experience would indi- cate that, whatever is decided, it will not be unpalatable.to the individual stockholder. Ulti- mately he could find himself the owner of a very valuable piece of property in addition to the present El Paso stock which could probably continue the 1. 00 dividend even after divestitur Meanwhile, recent progress has been gOOd. Earnings for 1964 are estimated at around 1. 50 per share, up from 1. 21 in 1963. Accounting is relatively conservative and although investment credit tax savings are allowed to flow through, tax savings from accel- erated depreciation are offset by a charge against income. The dollar dividend should at least be continued. From a technical point of view the stock has an upside objective of 33 followed by possible higher levels and is being added to our recommended list for inclusion in capital gains accounts. Dow-Jones Noon Indus. 869.69 Dow-Jones Noon Rails 204.40 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thlb rnark('t Jetter IS not, and under no circumstances 8 to be construed as, an offer to sell or a aohclwtlOn to buy any oecurltiC'l referred to 'herem The information ounUlIIll!.d…hereJU…lS nOl l!uarantA!cd as to accuracy or completeness nnd the furnlshwg thereof IS not, and under no clrcumstance9 is to be construed as, a repre9cnta- Iton by Walston & Co. Inc All expressions of oplnlOn are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co. Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purcha'ie. sell and may have o.n Interest In the securltles mentlOned herem. ThiS market. letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general. Informal commRntary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS. Addltlonal mformatlon WIth respect to any seCUrities referred to herein will he furnlhed upon request WN 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 31, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 31, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - December 31, 1964
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(! (r. I I Walston &- Co. —.;..;, Inc. ;,.-.;…….;…..;;.. 93' 5NEW YORK Members New York Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA 'CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER December 31, 1964 For some years now, we have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market to stage a year-end rally, and it has been the custom of this letter each December to point out some of the conclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. We have suggested that an exhaustive study of chart patterns since the Dow-Jones Industrial average was first computed in 1897 indicated that such a rally, however minuscule, had invariably taken place. This year the apparent starting date of the rally was on December 15th at 850. 19 in the Dow. A number of . .. — — —— — may be n9.t.!d.. . – (1) As stated above, an identifiable year -end rally has taken place in every year since 1897. This rally has often been of great magnitude with advances as great as 280/0 having been recorded. It has also, on occasion, continued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. However, on other occasions it has been of only a few days duration, reaching a top extremely early. Thus, in 1960 and 1962, the rally reached a peak in the first week in January. In 1961, 1963, and 1964 it continued into the latter part of February or March. (2) There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up and late when it has been down. In recent upward years, 1959 and 1963 are examples, in the year. the rally commenced from . early in Decembte\r\.\ In 1962, it began late (3) The important thing to watch in connection in the early months of the year is the low for the previous s been broken in 39 years out of the past 66. In 23 of these cases, it wa\\ since 1937 it has never been broken later i ruaryand Feb.ruary, and us, 1f the market 1S able to hold above its December low for the good that this low will not be broken. nth a p. the new year, chances become broken early in January d 1961, 1963 and 1964 1t was never broken (4) In years wh t downward two-thir he been broken the subsequent trend has been 1 and 1962, of course, are typical cases. (5) The rna 0 t ally is an important clue as to the year's rna rket trend. For 00/0 or more from the December lows has been followed by an upward or neutral m in 28 of the 33 years tha t such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 100/0 from the December low before an identifiable correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in 22 of 33 years. In 1961, 1963, and 1964, the year-end rally approximated 100/0. In both 1960 and 1962 it was under 50/0. (6) The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is also important. For example, in 18 years the rally has continued into March or later. In 16 of these 18 years the eventual trend was upward. In 1964, the year-end rally continued into March and in 1961 and 1963, into late February. In the coming year, therefore, theDecember low of 850. 19 is an important point to watch. If the present rally tops out in early January and breaks this low, it would be a strong indication of probable market weakness. A like indication would be a failure of the Dow to advance 100/0 or to approximately 935. On the other hand, if a rally continues into late February or March, or reaches above 935, an extension of the upswing might be indica ted. ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Noon Indust. 875.71 Dow-Jones Noon Rails 205.93 ThIS mllrkel letter IS not, and under no Circumstances 18 to be construed as, an offer to sell or n soliCItation to buy any aecurities referred to herem The informatIOn contained herem IS not gunrnntC!ed RS to accuracy or completeness Ilnd the furnlshmg thereof Is not. and under no circumstances is to be construed as a representa- , tWD by Wnleton & Co, Inc All of OPInion are subject to chanJ!e WIthout notIce Walston & Co., Inc, and OffIcers, DIrectors, and Jomployccs thereof, purchDBc, Bcll and may havc an mterest m the securities mentIoned hcrem ThIS market letter is mtended and presented merely as a general, mformal comm..ntnry on dny to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS AddItional mformntlon With respect to any securitIes referred to herem Will be furnIshed llpon request WN 301

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