Viewing Month: May 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 05, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 05, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - May 05, 1950
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Wolston.Hoffmon &. Goodwin SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. NEW YORK, N. Y. PHILADELPHIA, PA. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. BAKERSfiELD BEVERLY HILLS EAST ORANGE, N. J. LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND PASADENA SAN DIEGO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA EUREKA FRESNO HAGERSTOWN, MD. HARRISBURG, PA. PITTSBURGH, PA. RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SEATTLE, WASH. STOCKTON VALLEJO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 HOTEL WALDORFASTORIA PLata 9-6860 After both averages reached n,ew high territory for the move at 217.13 for the industrials and 57.58 ';for the railS, weakness in the tele- vision group created uncertainty in the general list and the averages re- acted to lows of 214.14 and 55.75. Considering the sharp decline in some of the television stocks, the comparably moderate decline in the averages attests to the underlying strength of the market. The weakness in the television issues was to be expected. After advancing since early January, the pace of the advance increased sharply in the past five or six weeks,'accompanied by heavy volume. Sharp gyrations in price built up fairly substantial distributional tops in a comparatively short period of time. At the week's lows, most of the individual issues were near the downside objectives indicated by the distributional tops. However, conSiderable consolidation may be needed until the next move is indicated. The action of the general market has, in the main been quite differ- ,ent from that of the television group. The fifty-seven point advance from' 'the June, 1949 lows has been quite orderly and the leadership has been good. The better grade issues have led the advance. Every advance has been follow-' ed by a consolidation before the uptrend has been resumed. As a result, our intermediate and longer term gauges have never registered an overbought condition. Until the general market follows the recent action of the tele- vision group, with volume of climactic proportions and inferior leadership, we see no indication of' other than the normal technical corrections. It would appear that the general market has not even started the explosive phase of the advance. I continue to expect a minimum of 225 in the indus- trial average and a maximum of 250-260 before a full fledged intermediate correction occurs, and continue to advise the purchase of recommended issues during periods of irregularity. Some groups of stocks have partiCipated in the advance to only a very small extent and are actually selling at the same price level as they were when the industrial average was in the 170-180 range. One such group is the retail store stocks. Individual issues have fluctuated in narrow trading ranges Since early 1948 when most issues made their lows. As a result, these stocks have built up substantial potential base patterns. If these areas are penetrated upside, some of these issues would indicate a 'return to close to the 1946 highs which are considerably above present L '.. levels. A list of some of these issues is compilea below, together with the trading range in which these stocks have held for more than two years and the possible price objective if the area is penetrated upside. May Depart- ment Stores, which we originally recommended at 40, is the only issue which has broken out of the range. Approx. Approx. 1949 Price Div. 1946 High Trading Range POSSible Indication Allied Stores Assoc.Dry Goods Best & CompanY City Stores Interstate Dept. May Dept. Stores Mercantile Stores National Dept.Stores 34 16 26 17 22 49 15 15 3.00 1.60 2.00 1.20 2.00 3.00 1.00 1.50 63 3/8 36 1/4 52 1/2 38 1/4 50 70 35 39 25 37 12 19 24 30 13 – 21 18 – 26 36 48 13 – 18 14 22 50 55 29 33 48 35 – 40 36 70 25 32 (' May 5, 1950 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN – ,7If,0–',\ \ /Co This memorandum is not to be construed illS an offer or solicitation of offen; to buy or sell any seturities. From time to time IWahton, Hoffmlln & Goodwin may have an interest in some or 1111 of the securitilt. mentioned herein, The foregoing material has been prepared by, us as matt,er of infCrmation only It 11. based upon information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, II not guaranteed as accurate or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry. … r..' .- . ……. ,.ij

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 12, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 12, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - May 12, 1950
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— .Wolston.Hoffmon &. Goodwin – SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. NEW YORK, N. Y. PHILADELPHIA, PA. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. BAKERSFIELD BEVERLY HILLS EAST ORANGE, N. J. LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND PASADENA SAN DIEGO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA EUREKA FRESNO HAGERSTOWN, MD. HARRISBURG, PA, PITTSBURGH, PA. RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SEATTLE, WASH STOCKTON VALLEJO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 HOTEL WALDORF-ASTORIA' PLata 9-6860 The industrial average reached a new high this week at 219.64. The rails, however, were unable to better the high of 57.58 reached earlier in the month. The favorable long term action continues as each successive advance is consolidated and digested before an overbought condition has been reached. The action of the rails has been somewhat disappointing but it must be remembered that they have been faced with two unfavorable developments. The first was the coal strike and now the strike on four important carriers. Regardless of this fact, and while their progress has been Slow, the rail average has been in a very slow but advancing uptrend. This group could assume a position of market leadership once the current uncertainties are settled. The patterns of individual stocks show few signs of important top patterns. The oe exception was the television group which had built up some wide congestion patterns during the period of heavy volume and rapid price swings. The decline in this group recently has at least partially corrected this situation. The fact that the decline in the very popular televisions had no great effect on the general market again attests to the underlying strength of the market pattern. In the past few days quite a number of individual stocks in various groups have broken out of accumulation areas on the upside indicating the beginning of fairly substantial upmoves. In many cases these issues have been in groups that have been relatively backward here- tofore. . The leadership of the market, in the main, remains good and I see no indications of even the start of a buying climax. I would expect no more than ordinary technical corrections at this pOint. Among the stocks that have broken out of long trading ranges is FRUEHAUF TRAILER. This stock had ranged between approximately 17 and 24 since late 1947. This range was penetrated on the upside and the stock sold above 25. This confirms the potentially favorable pattern and from a technical viewpoint the stock indicates higher levels. A numb.er of other issues have formed potentially favorable patterns, although they have not yet broken out of long trading ranges. One such stock is REYNOLDS METALS. After adjusting for the 10 stock dividend in December, 1949, the stock has held in a range between 17 and 26 Since early 1947. Ability to reach new high territory would also confirm its favorable pattern. A great many individual stocks in the oil group have also broken out on the upside of trading ranges and indicate a favorable trend. The action of the oil group early in the year was rather discouraging but Since March 15th the technical performance of this group has improved considerably. Among the oil stocks that have recently penetrated trading ranges on the upside are PURE OIL, OHIO OIL, RICHFIELD OIL, SINCLAIR, CONTINENTAL, TIDEWATER ASSOCIATED, PLYMOUTH, LION OIL, and SHELL OIL. May 12, 1950 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This momorandum Is not hayti an Intared in some to or be all constnJed as an offer or solicitotion of of the securities mentioned herein. The offofreergsotiongbumyateorri.!!s1ellh.!a!snybeseencurpirtipe.s!!rFerdomby time us to as !l time Walsto.. Hoffman matter of Inform.!!tlon o&nlyGooIdt IS.inb.!m!l3eYd upon Information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, Is not guaranteed as accurate or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 19, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 19, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - May 19, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman (\ Goodwin SAN FRANCISCO. CALIF. NEW YORK. N. Y. PHILADELPHIA. PA. LOS ANGELES. CALIF. BAKERSfiELD BEVERLY HILLS EAST ORANGE, N. J. LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND PASADENA SAN DIEGO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA EUREKA FRESNO HAGERSTOWN, MD. HARRISBURG, PA PITTSBURGH, PA. RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SEATTLE, WASH. STOCKTON VALLEJO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 HOTEL WALDORFASTORIA PLaxa 96B60 The industrial average reached new high territory on Friday at 222.79, The rail average at the day's high of 57.23 was close to the recent high of 57.58. The market has now advanced over sixty pOints from the June, 1949 low. The advance has been steady and orderly with only minor corrections. Each advancing phase has been followed by a consolidation and digestion of the rise. The leadership, on the whole, has been good. In fact, while the better grade issues have advanced into new high terri- tory Since 1930, many secondary and speculative issues are still selling at price levelS 50 below their 1946 highs. Despite this long and steady rise, there are no important indications of an important top. The industrial average is now close to the minimum objective of 225 mentioned for a long time in this letter. Never- theless, most of our long term and intermediate indicators show no Signs of an overbought condition. The short term indicator has on several occasions since June Signalled a temporary overbought condition. However, on each occaSion this has been corrected by a consolidation rather than a correction. At the moment, this short term indicator has not reached an overbought condition despite the fact that the market has rallied for five consecutive days. A sharp rally in the industrial average over the next week would result in the first signal of an overbought condition on one of the intermediate trend indicators. A resting period in the industrial average for the next few days would be the best technical ,.', action. While the rail average has not yet succeeded in penetrating the previous 57.58 high, individual rail issues have shown improving action and I would expect this average to attempt to reach at least the 60-62 level before the advance tops out. Individual rail issues have very diverse patterns and extreme selectivity is needed. The following issues have the most attractive patterns Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe Southern Pacific Seaboard Air Line R.R. Illinois Central Gulf,Mobile & Ohio Chicago, Indianapolis & Louis.nAn Missouri, Kansas, Texas, pfd. Chicago Great Western Texas & PacifiC Railroad The following issues also have potentially attractive patterns – !, 1 . ,,'.. '1 Chicago, Rock Island Northern Pacific western' PacifiC Denver & Rio Grande Western May 19, 1950 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ThIs memorandum Is not IIl1ve an Interest In Jome to or be all construed as an offer or sollcitl!tlon of of the securities mentioned herein. The offen to buy or sell any securities. From time to time Walston, Hoffman foregoing matenel has been prepared by, us as a matter of Information o&nlyG.ooItdISi,nbam.!l upon Information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, 15 not guaranteed as accurate or fInal, and II not Intended to forecl05e Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 26, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 26, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - May 26, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman &, Goodwin SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. NEW YORK, N. Y. PHILAOELPHIA, PA. -. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. BAKERSFIELD BEVERLY HILLS EAST ORANGE. N. J. LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND PASADENA SAN 01 EGO SAN JOSE SANTA ANA ) TABELL'S MARKET. LETTER EUREKA FRESNO HAGERSTOWN, MD. HARRISBURG, PA. PITTSBURGH, PA RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SEATTLE, WASH STOCKTON VAllEJO '.35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 HOTEL WALDORF.ASTORIA PLaza 96860 \ ! \I It might be appropriate at this time to repeat my forecast for 1950. The reprint below was issued on December, 23rd, 1949 when the DowJones industrial average was 198.88 and the rail average was 51.53. \ My prediction for 1950 is that the industrial average will attain a high of at least 225 with a good probability that the 240-250 level will be reached. I also believe the rails will test the 63-65 level. Just when these figures will be reached is problematical. Most forecasters expect the highs to be reached in mid-year. I doubt if the low of the year is below 185. In my opinion, the market leaders, at least in the earlier stages, will continue to be the higher grade, long dividend paying issues that are yielding 5t to 8. The present wide spread between high grade bond yields and higher grade stock yields will be sharply narrowed. At this time, five months later, the industrial average has reached a high of 224.24 and the rails have reached 57.58. While the minimum objective of 225 has approximately been reached, there are no signs of the market topping out and the imminence of a sharp . decline. The entire advance from the June, 1949 lows has been orderly and each rise has been followed by a consolidation and digestion of the advance before the rise has been resumed. The market has been gOing through such a consolidation period during the past few days. The low so far this year was. reached on January 13th at 193.94. The chances of this level being again reached chis year appear to be remote . . The leadership during the entire advance has been good. With few exceptions, the bulk of the advance has been in the better grade, long dividend paying issues. The great majority of listed issues have shown onlYi very moderate price advances. In many instances, there are good reasons why these issues have not advanced. On the other hand, there are also a great many good issues that appear behind the market. In most cases these issues are in industries that have undergone some post-war readjustment and. appear at or near a turn. The recent strength in Montgomery Ward may be an indication that we are entering a new phase of the advance. As the present leaders reach new high territory, attention may shift to some of the laggard issues. Some of these issues have been backward only because the attention of the market has been directed elsewhere. The retail store and mail order issues appear to be showing some signs of strength. Allied Stores (35), Montgomery Ward (61), and Lerner (23) are issues that could show good price enhancement. Spiegel (11) is a more speculative issue in the group. The textile group shows signs of returning activity. Lowenstein (), and Pacific Mills (30) are representative issues. The distilling issues have also been backward. DistillersSeagram (19) and Schenley (32) have good patterns. The airlines have strong formations. American Airlines (11) and Eastern Airlines (15) are the, . better grade issues in the group. There are a number of special issues that also have built up good. potential accumulation patterns. InclUded in this group are Electric Boat (18), Servel (13), Penn-Dixie-Cement (25), Shamrock Oil (29), FruehaufTrailer (25) and Reynolds Metals (24). Three of our previous recommendations – American Export Lines (19), Central Foundry (9) and Elliott (22) have reacted back to support levels.–They may be slow but should rally from present levels. May 26, 1950 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Th15 memorandum II not have an interelt in some to or be all construed as .!In of tho securitiel offer or soltdfation of mentioned herein The ofofhremgotiongbumy.1oterrialelUhaasnybeuelncurpirtieDsarlFdrombyt.iUm5 e to IU a time Wa15tcn, Hoffrpan matter of Informahon & Goodwin may only, It Is based upon Imormation believed reliable but not necessarily complete, Is not guaranteed as accurate or fInal, and IS not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry .

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