Viewing Month: November 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 03, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 03, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - November 03, 1950
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. Walston.Hoffman &. Goodwin' NEW YORK 5, N. Y 35 Wall Street DIGBY 4.4141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93212 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1-1700 . After reaching new lows of 223.07 and 65.67, both averages rallied ; later in the week to recover a portion of the decline from the year's highs 'of 232.75 in the industrials and 71.31 in the rails. The fact that both averages penetrated on the downside of the. recent trading ranges indicates that the intermediate trend is down. As yet, neither average has retraced even a third of the advance from the July lows. The rally in the rails has been particularly disappointing. A one-third retracement would be 220.39 '. and 64.43, one-half would be 214.08 and. 61.00 and tllO-thirds would be 207.83 and 57.55. I would be inclined to favor a half to tHo-thirds retracement. The breadth-of-the-market studies continue their deteiorating pattern. Regardless of new highs in the averages during September and October, the number of advances in individual issues has been decreasing while the number of declines has been growing larger. This is also true of upside and downside volume. , The industrial average has broken belm, the intermediate term 28-day moving average line thus indicating a'downtrend of at least intermediate proportions. The present average is still above the longer term 200-day moving average. There is no change in the unfavorable implications of my technical work for the nearer term. Continue to advise partlal liquidity in investment accounts and no new purchases. POSSible strength in the next fell days should be used to further lighten accounts if not already done so, in acord ance with the advice of this letter for the past few weeks. 'However, if the averages should reach 215-210 and 61-58, I ,,;ould consider the market in a buying range. News events could cause a sharp sudden break so I am listing below recommended purchases in the event that the market reaches the levels mentioned above. These purchases should be made on weakness on a late tape — in other words, when the market looks its worst. his requires courage, but such shakeouts offer the best buying opportuni- ties as witness our buy advice in July in tbe 200-195 area and in June 1949 in 170-160 area. BETTER GRADE Allied Chemical, American Can, American Cyanamid, ArneI'. Potash B, Bethlehem Steel, Buffalo Forge, Chain Belt, Chicago Pneu.Tool, Colubian Carbon, Continental Can, Deere & Co., Distillers-Seagram, Eastman Kodak, Food Machinery, Gulf Oil,Hercules Powder,Interchemical Corp.,International Harvester, Kennecott Copper,Link Belt, Mathieson Chern. ,May Dept.Stores, Mont.Ward,National Distillers,National Lead, Otis Elevator, Phelps Dodge, Pittsburgh Plate Glass,Schenley Ind. ,Sperry Corp. ,Square D, Standard Oil of Calif.,Union Pacific,United Carbon, United Engineering,Western Auto Supply, Wrigley. MEDLJM GRA.DE American Colortype,Associated Dry Goods,Burlington Mills,Carrier Corp., Celanese Corp. ,Colorado Fuel & Iron,Combustion Eng.Super,Davison Chern., Fruehauf Trailer, General Precisio'l Equip., General Tire, Intertype Corp., Jones & Laughlin,Lambert Co. ,Lerner Stores,Lov;enstein,McGraw Hill,National Supply,Pacific Mills,Pfizer (Chas.),Plymouth Oil,Rheem Mfg. ,Tennessee Corp. ,Twentieth-Century-Fox, Vic tor Chem., Worthington Pump. SPECULATIVE Amer.Airlines,Austin Nichols,Balt.& Ohio,pfd.,Balt.& OhiO, Braniff Air., Bush Terminal ,Capital Airlines, Chic .Mil.& St ;Paul, pfd., Copperweld Steel, Dayton Rubber,Denver & R.G & W.,Eastern Airlines,Elastic Stop Nut, Fansteel Metal, Goodall-Sanford, Gray Mfg., Ill.Central, Int .''el & Tel. ,Northwest Air.,Pitts.Coke & Chem.,Pitts.Consol.Coal,Radio Keith,Raytheon,Reynolds Metals,Robbins Mills,St.Louis-San Fran.,Shamrock Oil,Spiegel Inc.,TeLas Gulf Prod. ,United Air.,Western Air. ,Western Maryland,Wyandotte Worsted. Closing Averages Dow-Jones Ind. – 228.10 Dow-Jones Rails 66.67 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON,HOFFMAN & GOODWIN November 3, 1950 This memorandum Is not to b. construed liS an off., or solicitation 01 offers to buy or sell ,fin., securlties From time to tim'll Wo!Iilton, Hollmen & Goodwin mey hen en Int….st In 10m. or o!IlI of the securities m.ntioned henlln. The for.going material hi been prepared by us u a mo!ltter of informetlon only, It Is besed upon inforMetlon ben….ed r.llebl. but not necessarily complete, Is not querflnte.d as o!Iccurate or final, o!Ind is not Intended to foreclose Independent InqIJ!ry III' I1, I I I Ii I, i II 'I .,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 10, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 10, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - November 10, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman (\ Goodwin NEW YORK S, N, Y 35 WClII Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 TABEll'S MARKET lETTER LOS'ANGELES 13, CAliF 550 Soutn Spring Street MADISON 9-3232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, ClIF 165 Montgomery Stret SUTTER 1-1700 The very favorable Election results and a temporary cessation of the Chinese Red threat resulted in a much stronger post-Election market, After reaching new lows on Monday at 220.59 and 64.00 after a sharp three-day drop brought on by the new developments in Korea, the market recovered to 229.20 and 67.4l. The ELection trend toward conservatism has very favorable long term ,implications and strengthens the conviction often expressed ,by this letter that go.od dividend paying common stocks are sound long term holdings under present conditions and that equities should constitute the much greater part of investment portfolios. However, from an intermediate term point of view, it may take some further time before the long term favorable factors offset the temporarily unfavorable short term possibilities. Despite the rally of this week, the technical picture continues to suggest considerable caution. While both averages at Monday's lows had retraced one-third of the advance from the July lows and thus fulfilled the minimum requirement of an intermediate correction, the volume indications continue unfavorable. Friday's volume was 1,640,000 shares which is considerably below the transactions of 2,575,000 shares on Monday's decline. Also, the number of advances has lessened each successive day despite the fact that the general market advanced. There were 857 advances on Wednesday, 813 on Thursday and 635 on Friday. Conversely, 'the number of declines have increased with 137 on Wednesday followed by 261 on Friday. This indicates a few issues are carry- ing the burden of the advance while the balance are under pressure. Also, the sharp swings at the top of the 37 point rise since July leads to caution. These sharp price swings usually occur at the top of an intermediate rise. Since October 25th, a period of thirteen trading days, the industrial average has traveled over an area of 33 pOints in up and down swings, or an average of 2t pOints a day. The rails have had a thirteen point swing or approximately a point a day. The important points to watch are the October highs of 232.75 and 71. 31 and Monday's lows of 220.59 and 64.00. However, most of t,he work in the recent trading range has been on the upper part of the area so a downside penetration would have more significance than upside. The tops have broadened enough to indicate 210-205 and 61-59 in the event of new lows. An upside penetration would carry to 235-237. The present pattern indicates caution on buying on strength. It appears advisable to wait until the pattern clarifies. An upside penetra- tion of the recent range would be followed by a consolidation and an opportunity to buy at approximately present levels. A downside penetra'tion would result in some very excellent buying opportunities in a great many issues with very favorable long term patterns. November 10, 1950 Closing Averages Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 229.29 67.30 EDMUND W TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This m9morandum is not to bl! CDMtrullld III lin offer or solkita!ion of offefl to buy or sell 1'1' securiliu from time to time Wl'Ilston, Hoffman & Goodwin may havil an intered In somo or all of the securities montioned herein. The lorlllgo;og r'lalcHlIlI has been prepared by 1,1 fIS /I matter of Information only. It il balId upon Informatton belulved relible but not neceurlly compl.'e, h not quarl!lntClcd ' accurate or fhull, nd is not intended to foreclose independent inql)iry. ,, n ./

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 17, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 17, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - November 17, 1950
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.Wolston.Hoffmon&Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N. Y. 3S WII Street DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-'977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Sheet MADISON 9-3232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER I 171)0 Both averages have rallied sharply from the lows reached the day before Election and on Frida; were near the year 1 s highs reached last mo. -h October High Nov.6th Low Recent High Industrials Rails 232.75 71.31 220.59 6.00 231.01 70.39 At the November 6th lows,both averages had retraced about one-third of the advance from the July lows of 195.40 and 50.66. This is the minimum requirement of a correctionary decline and seemingly places the market in 'e. position to move ahead into new high terri tory. . However, in my opinion, if new highs are made they will not be much above the highs of OGober. The sharp up and down fluc tua1io(ls of the averages and of individual issues over the two or three weeks has considerably l)roadened the trading range. If this area is a distributional top, the po, tential downside implications have been considerably enlarged. I,. ., an event, the downside objective of the 1. . lstrial average would be in the 210-205 area. As most of the work in the trading range has been in the upper side of the area, a downside penetration would be more significant than an upside penetration. In the event of new highs, the objective would not be much more than 235-237. Under the circumstances, it would appear that the purchases at this high level entail the risk twenty to twenty-five points lower as against fiVe to seven points higher. In my opinion, the possibilities of profit ,. c' not warrant the risk involved. I would rather be a buyer when the possib lities were reversed as they were in JuJ.. Still advise tak 1g profits on further strength. Below is a technical report on some of the issues ,in my recommended list Di3TILLERS-SEAGRAM closed at 26 3/4 on Friday after equalL,1g the 1950 high of 27 dlJ.ring the day. This stock was originally recolJlll.nded at 15 and again at around 17 in July.\while this stock has ,advanced sharply, the technical pattern is still strong with an initial indication of 32 and a long t,c;. 1 40. In event of a general market correc tion the stock would most likely decline but there is .. strong support at 24-23 where the stock should be bought. FRUEHAUF TRAILER closed at 32 1/8 on Friday after reaching a new high. at 32 3/8. Fruehauf was originally recommended in this letter at 19 3/4, and has been often mentioned in the 20-23 range. The stock has reI ched its initial objective a 32 but-the longer term C' c '-ive is 41-47. S, me consolidation may be needed around present levels. Stock should be an attract- ive purchrae on price declines. .. NATIONAL LEAD reached a new high on Friday at 63 3/4. This stock Has recommended around 40 in July. At present prices it has passed its intermediate term objective which was extremely vague at 50-60. Seems high enough at present. Would be inclined to take profits and await a corrective ,reaction. Long term objective is 75-80. NATIONAL marketwise for SUPPLY closed two years. It at 19 on Friday. held' in the 19-16 The rang s e t o' h L'om as la t do e ne 19 4vl euryn\. illit t l e. September of this year. The year's high was 21. Stock has a strong . C(',/1- tial technical pattern and seems behind the marlet. Is near a strong support area, and even in the event of a general market decline should react only . moderately. REYNOLDS METALS closed at 37 5/8 on Friday. The year's high was 38 3/S. This stock was ori(,inally recommended at 21 and was consistently re-reCOlJllnen- ded while it was fluctuating aimlessly in the 21-25 area for over a year. The short term indication is vague but the longer term indication at 65 is so favorable that, despite its sharp advance, I hesitate to suggest taking profits. Recently, the stock has held in the 35-38 range and a penetration out of this area should indicate the next short term move. The upside indi- .. cation would be 41-43 and the downside would be 32-30. At the latter figure, the stock would appear to be a most interesting speculation. November 17, 1950 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON. HOFFMAN , GOODWIN This memordndu'! II -IIot to be construed 41. n off.r !,r solicita!lon f/f off.rl to buy or. ,elf dny stlcuri1ies From time to time Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may have n Interet 11'1 sO.me or al of the securities mentioned herein The foregOing materllll hu been prepared by us as a matter of information only It is bosed upon Information beheved reliable but not nuenerUy compl.te, Is not guarutetld as dccur.ste or final, and is not intended to foreclose indepl1lndent Inql.olry ; … …..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 24, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 24, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - November 24, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman &. Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N, Y 3S Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 TABEll'S MARKET lETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON '3232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 The market advanced into new high territory on Friday with the in- dustrials at a high of 236.63 compared with the October high of 232.75. The rail penetration was less decisive with a high of 71.54 against the October high of 71.31. The upside penetration'indicates that the market could work somewhat higher, but would continue to take profits as individual issues reach their objective. ' It might be expedient at this time to review the issues this letter has recommended and the present course of action. It must be remembered that all recommendations in my letter are for the intermediate term of three months to a year or for long term holding. Recommendations are not for short term trading. ' I have suggested taking profits on the following. The price in paren theSis is the approximately recommended level and the other figure is where profit taking was suggested BETTER GRADE Auminum Co.of Amer.(55) 71, American Cyanamid (38-40)70, Atchison,Top.& S.F.(109) 135, Gen'l Amer.Trans.(44) 53, General Motors (39) 54, Intertype (25) 40, National Lead (40)63, Pullman (34) 48. MEDIUM GRADE California Pack.(35) 52 Crown Zellerbach (29) 43, Northern Pacific (19) 28, Republic Steel (34) 3 to 45, Studebaker (18) 33, SPECULATIVE Chicago,Mil.,St.Paul,pfd.(32) 45, M-K-T pfd.(26) 39, Radio Carp,(11-13) 21-23, Seaboard Air Line R.R.(15-22) 39, Western Union (26) 41. Would also take profits on the following issues. Figure in parenthesis is recommended price and other figure is Friday's close BETTER GRADE Allis Chalmers (28) 43, Caterpillar Tractor (38) O, ColGate Palmolive Peet (44) 49, Deere (39) 54, Federated Dept.Stores (272) 44, .General E1etric (42) 50, Libbey-Owens-Ford (32) 37, National Dairy (39)50, Sears Roebuck (42)-'54;cStandard Oil of Calif.(64).82, Standard Oil of N.J. (70) 90, Youngstown Sheet & Tube (37) 49. . MEDIUM GRADE Celanese (32) 43 Combustion Eng.Superheater (24 7/8) 37, Firestone Tire (54) 73, General Tire (24) 32, Illinois Central (39) 55, McGraw Hill (32) 40. SPECULATIVE Boeing Air.(26) 35, Chicago ilreat Western (15) 22. The issues listed below are the remainder of the list. Would continue to hold provided intermediate term accounts have 60 liquidity and long term investment accounts have 25 liqUidity (in common stock portion).; If less than 40 invested in intermediate term accounts or 75 (in common stock portion) in investment accounts, would purchase issues in this last list BETTER GRADE Alpha Port land (35) 34, -Amer-;-Hmne Pd 30 j American '.NCCeo.wIm.sTm.(eF3r3cinia3aljn8Cc)irae3ld3i,(t 5A5(5n)3de)4r8so5,Cn0o, CluElmanybdtiioacnnotC(t5a5Jrob-5ho7nn)so(7n303(3A141PC2amn9n)oFnarirMbailnlks s(4M)bo)rs55e 50,,(41) 45,Inter.Harvester (28) 32, Kresge (36 3/4) 39, May Dept.Stores (48) 58 McCrory Stores (35) 33,Mercantile Stores (16) 18, Melville Shoe (26) 23, Montgomery Ward (57) 66, Otis El.(35)35,StndiLRd 58, eR Pae-4.-H-c-t87LlOO,United Carbon (39) 43,Western Auto Supply (..) 44, Westinghouse Elec.(30) 34 5/8). MEDIUM GRADE Allied Stores (34)42,Associated Dry Goods (17)19, Avco,pfd. ( 39 ) 44, 1luH.ar.dBtu'en-M;llJ.B.–(-2(…J/.Jt-)–25', Carrier (13) 17 , S.hlD PnatGl36,,City Stores (18 3/4)18, Cont.Baking (13)17,DiBt.gea.(15 17)28;Elec.Boat (18)17,Elliott (26)23,Fruehauf (25)31, Hewitt (17-19 )22, I.fltex .M!ll. Us )11 ,Inter .Dept .Stores (22) 29, Lambert (22 )23, 'Lerner (23)23,Lorillard (27)26,Lowenstein (19)28,McKesson (36 7/8)40,Natl. Dept.Store (15)18,Natl.Supply (19) 21Pac.Mills (30)41,Penn Dixie (22t)24, Pub.Serv.E.(25)22,Purity Bakeries (31)28,Schenley (24)39,Shamrock (31-26) 30, Smith,A. O. (29) 33, Se-rl!aG (52 )6e;-SG 6) 11 11, 20th-Cent. (22 )21 , ..;estern- Pec.O,.) 115. (SPECULATIVE grade stocks will follow in next letter.) November 211, 1950 EDMUND U. 'l'ABELL ,. This mamor,ndum is not ho!lve an infored In ome to or be 1111 COI\trued III an off.r or sohdttion of of the secuntles montioned herem The ofoffreengOtlonoburyl'loterrli.'..!n.LTht,i!''!'('ti;MeelnJ''i'aps3rt!'liit''1)mY.AU1101 e..,R'WmaGniUhi\OtfmYlridMrMii1iNo&nlyGooItd-1-5,b,m,aeyd upon information believed reliable but not nec.eSlarlly complete, 11 not guaranteed lI accurate or final, lind 1 not .nt.nded to foredoso Independent Inquiry , I I

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