Viewing Month: September 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 01, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 01, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - September 01, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman &Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N, Y 35 Wall Street DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA , PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5S'in TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, 550 South Spring Street MADISON '3212 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 2b5 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 Ever since the downside gap in the industrial average on Friday, August 25th, the market has been unable to make much upside progress. On Tuesday, the rail average reached a new high at 64.18 but the industrial average, at 220.20, failed to penetrate the August 24th high of 222.17. On Thursday, the industrials declined to a low of 216.21. I am still of the opinion that we will witness a further correction of the undigested twenty-, seven point advance from the July low of 195.40. Volume indications have been unfavorable and there does not seem to be sufficient buying power at this time to immediately penetrate the heavy supply area in the 219-229 range. A decline to the 212-208 area would be suffiCient, in my opinion, to correct the overbought condition created by the rapid advance. If that level were reached, I would advise the purchase of selected issues. In last week's letter, I listed a number of issues suitable for purchase if the industrial average reached the 212-208 area. To that list, I would add the following stocks- Chain Belt, Dresser Industries, Mathieson Chemical, National Supply and Square D. The investor today must keep one thought uppermost in his mind. The main, basic factors that will eventually determine the long term trend of equities are predominantly in favor of higher stock prices. It is not necessary to repeat the details. They have been covered many times before in this letter. The situation has not been changed by the Korean criSis. In fact, the happenings of the last two months have intensified the longer term picture even though they may temporarily hold back the eventual up- swing. The invasion of South Korea will not pressure but it will also mean a high level only add to of business the for inflationary years to come. -, An increasing supply of money and higher earnings should result in higher stock prices. That must be the inevitable result. Temporarily, the trend may be held back by taxes, controls, allocations, re-negotiations, etc. An even more potent factor holding back an immediate rise is fear by the investor of outright war, the atom bomb and war reversals. These fears will not provide the background for unrestrained optimism but neither do they give much reason for flight into a depreciating dollar. It is my opinion that the upward push of increasing inflationary pressure and higher earnings will temporarily be held back by the restrain- ing influences of wartime controls and taxes and by the psychological fears-.; of the investor. It will result in the market, as portrayed by the averages holding a narrow range for a considerable period of time. It is possible ,the range so far in 1950 of 229.20 high and 195.40 low will contain the – market, with a 5 leeway on each side, for a long time to come. This should result in an excellent trading market while the averages and individual issues are influenced by the temporary hopes and fears of changing war con- ditions. However, eventually the basic inflationary factors will become pre- 'dominant. It may be a year or two years, or even three years, before this occurs. No matter what the time element, it still is my opinion that high grade common stocks offer the investor the best protection from a depre- ciating dollar. September 1, 1950 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Closings; Dow-Jones Industrials – 218.42 Dow-Jones Rails 63.38 Thil memorandum Is not hue an Int.rest In some to or b. all construed ,/II .an 01 the securities offer or sol1c1tllllon of mentioned herein. The oHeri to buy or sell any securities From time to time Waldo., Hoff'!lfln foregoin9 material hu been prepued by us as II matter of tnformehon o&nlyG. oIotdwIsinbameady upon Information ben..,ed rellabr. but not eCflnarlly complete, 11 nof quarufd as ccurate or final, and il not Intended to foreclole Independent inq\llry. . . … . … .. . . -t., .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 08, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 08, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - September 08, 1950
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.. 'Walston.Hoffman \\ Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N, Y 35 Wo.'IlI Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADElPHIA 2, PA 1420 Wall'lul5treet PENNYPACKER S 5977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGElES 13, CALIF, 550 SouJh Spring Street M)OISON 932J2 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 2bS Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 n increased volume, the market moved higher on Friday. The rails , were the leaders and the rail average reached a new intra-day high at 64.63. The industrials also advanced but, at the intra-day high of 220.9!', were – just a shade above Tuesday's high of 220.71 and over a peint beloH the rally peak of 222.17 reached on AugUst 24th. Special situations rather than the usual market leaders scored the largesl advances. Despite the seemingly good actio;1 of the market, I would remain cautious. Two weeks ago, with the averages about he same level they are 'today, I advised taking profits and assuming a 50 liquid position in short term and intErmediate term trading accounts. I see L) reason t.o change this advice at the moment. The in-cermediate term inriicator has net 'ret corrected the overbought condition brought about by the sharp rapid advance from the ,Tuly lows. Further consolidation for two weeks or so or a techni,cal correction would be needed to change this pattern. Until this Occurs I would keep a 50 cash position in tradirg &ccounts in order to be able to take ad-Jantage of a reaction. This does not apply to long term invest- -ment accounts. They should continue to remain fully invested. 'l'le 11bral -yjelds and increasing inflationary pressure indicate that good common stocks are a much sounder holding than a depreciat';'ng dollar. Low-priced issues, from a percentage poi t of view, usually show illuch !)reater appreciation than higher priced stocks. A ten polnt advance in a jilO stock is equivalent to 100 profit while a cnilar move in '1 stock' selling at 30 is only 33 1/3. Pro'-idcd one has patiE'YJce and is wDling to assume speculative risks, low-vriced stocks can S10W the holder large percentage profits. Low-priced issues have, not been market fa'/orites a'.d they lave shown only mocerate appreciation from the-lows of the last four years. The twelve issues listed below all hve p0tentially cttractive technical patterns. For a mere 11,'350. (excluding cO.1missions) one can purchase 100 shares of each of these stocks. ' This 'lCkage was worth a maximum 01 34,960 at the 1945-1946 highs. Purchase l'f the entire package is recommended rather than concentratio'1- in one or two issues Austin Nichol Braniff Airways Jush Terminal Central Foundry C0ntinental Motors Delaware,Lack. & West Elastic Stop Nut Gray Mfg Northwest Airlines R-K-O Spiegel Western Airlines 1945-19).6 HiCh 25 3/4 37 1/2 15 3/8 17 3/4 24 16 3/8 16 3/8 24 1/2 63 1/2 28 1/8 39 7/8 40 1/2 7 – /3 9 e 3/8 10 1/2 9 7/8 10 3/4 10 3/4 7 5/8 10 1/2 9 3/8 Closing Averages Dow-Jones Ind. — 220.03 Dow-Jones Rails – 64.39 September 8, 1950 EDNUND -W. '1'ABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN Co GOODWIN Thh hue menmlonrla.nrd.,u'mIni,I()nront. to or upon Information believed bI.I construed illS an of lhe securities on., or sol1cil!lon m.ntioned h.rein of The reliable but not ntunarlly compl.te, h ofoffreengotionqbumy aoternoleillh,nl'beseentur1ptr1eepsarFedromb., not quarante.d al acturate or fiMi, and time 10 time Wolllo.n, Hoff,!,,n .. Good!,ln m., us as is not a matter lnl.ndad of 10 foinrf.ocrlmolaotioInndoopnle.,n.deItntIIlnbqolsr.yd. -;-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 15, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 15, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - September 15, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman &, Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N. Y. 35 WlI Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 265 Montgomery Street SUTIER 1-2700 The industrial average on Wednesday decisively broke out on the upside of the long trading shelf between 222.17 and 216.21 in which the average had held since August 18th. A high of 226.32 was reached on Friday. The rails were the original leaders of the advance and the rail average, at the week's high of 67.10, was approaching the 1946 high of 68.77. I .wulrl not follow strength at this stage. Three weeks ago, when the averages were around 220, I advised ta.king profits on 50 of' holdings in short term and intermediate term trading accounts and while adviSing com- pJ ete retention of long term holdings, suggested no nevI purchases. The present pattern of my technical work indicates n) change in that advice. The industrials are entering an area of he.cvy supplr at a time when boch the'short term and intermediate term indicators are in an overbought condition due to an undigested advance of over thirty pOints in two months. It would appear doubtful that 'che up\,iard mome,tum cnn continue to be rl8.in- tained for a suffic ient time to absorb the overhead ''Jfferings. The consolidating period from mid-August restored e. lou,h technical strength for a short te'm advance to the 223-226 area but the il'.termedlcte term ina.icatul' is still in overbought territory and this 'eek's ltrengt, has again placeC the short term indicator. in selling territory. The two main motivatin forces behind the present rise are (1,) hlr;her. earnlngs and dlvldends and, (2) the.lnflationary potential qf greatly increaser, government defense spending. Both t'ese factc'rs will, in my oplLion, result in much higher stock prices. I can eventually envision the possibility of a prLe level above the highs of 1929. But I do nei., believe that this is the. time, for ,such, a move. Inflati h and .,;l1gher commodity prices would 'be directly against the interests.of' the defense program and the government will do everything in its povler to hold down the inflationary potential. Actually, we have not yet felt the impact ;f iJ'1creased government spending. It will not be evident until the latter paLt of 1951 and in 1952. There is a time lag between appropriations for purchase and the actual spending. The cash deficit for the 1951 fiscal year will be comparatively small. In the meantime, the government will do all it can to .hold back rising prices by a strong anti-inflation pr,)gram. This will be particularly true after Election Day. Cre01t controls and higher taxes and moves by the Federal Reserve Boa;j can be expected. All of tese thlngs can adversely affect common stock prlces for the short term. , I continue to believe that the factors pushing up prices will be 'temporarily balanced by factors that will hold back the marlet. The re'suIt will be a rather narrow tradlng range for an E'xten.ded period of time, possibly or'as long as two years or more. During that period, I do not 'believe the market will move much above the June 1950 high of 229.20, or 'much below the 195.40 low of July, 1950. When the inflationary factorf gaLl t8.llpordry ascendency, and the averages reach ,he 220-230 area, I would lighten trading accounts and (l,f'er invest;ent purchases. When the repressive factors seeming to be holding the line against rising prices and th averaes enter the 210-200 area, I would becoe fully invested for' both the short and longer term. Closing Averages DO',1-Jones Industrials – 225.85 Dovi-Jones Rails 66.74 EDMmm W. TA3ELL WALSTml, HOFFl'flAN & GOODWIN September 15, 1950 This mamorandl,lm is not to b. construed Cli an oH.r or sollci'aUon of offers to buy or sell any securities From tiMe to time Wahton, Hoffman & Goodwin mey have an Int.r.st In 10m. or all of the securities mentioned herein The foregoing malerial has been prepred by 1,1, .n II matter of information only It is baled upon information beheved rellabl. but not necenarlly compl.t., II not guaranteed U o!Iccurate or final, and is not Intended to faradaiC! Indo pendent Inquiry. . .. – .. . .'. . … … – -,;;.–

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 22, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 22, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - September 22, 1950
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,,' Walston.Hoffman (\ Goodwin 5 NEW YORK 5. N. y, 3S Wall Street DIGBY' 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5;977 TABELL'S MARkET LEnER ' LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON 91m SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF, 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1.2700 , , In June, 1949, this letter recommended the purchase of stocks in the 165-160 area of the industrial average. The low was 160.62. Later it was .. stated that the upside obJective for the advance was a minimu.'ll of 225 and a maximum of 240-250. In June, 1950, the average reached a high of 229.20. 'Then followed Korea. We again advised purchase of selected issues in the , 205-195 area. The low in July, 1950 was 195.40. The market has now, in a , little over two months, regained almost the entire decline. Friday's high ,was 228.17. At this stage, I would advise caution in following the advance. It is possible that the'maximum objective of 240-250 may be approached, but', 'I would rather doubt it. The market entered overbought territory on August' 24th when the average reached 222.17. At that time we suggested lightening , intermediate term accounts 50 while continuing complete retention of long term holdings. Would continue to follow the same procedure. The market appears to have enough momentum ta hold in the broad 230-220 area for a , little further time and special situations may have moves of their own. I , 'trading accounts, some advantageous switches might be made in order to take 'advantage of such special situations,provided 50 of funds remain liquid. ,,' Below is a review of some of the issues in my recommended list. ALUMINUM CO.OF AMERICA was recommended in late February at 55, so it , is now,a long term holding. The last sale was 71 3/4. The original object- ive was 70-75. Seems high enough at the moment. ! CALIFORNIA PACKING was originally recommended at 36. The technical , pattern indicated an advance to 52-55. The recent high was 52. Is near its obje'ctive. ', INTERNATIONAL MINERALS f, CHEMICAL. Originally recommended at 25 and 'again in July at around 35-37. Last sale was 49 3/4. The longer term pat- ,'tern still indicates higher levels at 60-65. Would buy on declines. LOWENSTEIN & CO. This issue has been conSistently recommended in the '20-25 range. Last sale was 38 1/8. Recent advance has been rapid but longer, term indication is 50-55 on present stock. Declared 25 stock dividend this week. Buy on price declines. MISSOURI-KANSAS-TEXAS, PFD. Originally recommended at 26. The stock 'has a very bullish long t8rm pattern and indicates much higher levels. However, at Friday's high of 39 1/4, the stock was just below the upside supply at 40-50 and may need some technical correction before the advance ,is resumed. Buy on dips., PACIFIC MILLS was recommended late in May at 30. Thursday's high was 47. The advance has been rapid but the intermediate term objective is 50-56 and the longer tern objective is even higher. Would not follow . strength at this stage but would add to holdings on price declines. , REYNOLDe METALS has conSistently been recommended in the 10\1 20s. ',Recent high was 32 3/4. There is some supply of stock around present levels that temporarily may hold Qack the stock but long term indications are much ,higher. Buy on declines or on ability to reach 33. ' SCHENLEY INDU3'rRIES was one of favored purchases early this year when it \'fas selling at around the equivalent of 24 for the present stock. Last 'sale was 33. While some consolidation may be needed, highet levels are ul- timately indicated. The objective is 45-50. Buy during periods of market weakness; SEABOARD AIRLINE. This has been one of our favored rails. Stock was originally r,ecommended at 15 and again at 22. Recent high was 39 3/8. At that level it had over-reached its intermediate term objective of 37 and may need some consolidation to form a new pattern. WESTERN UNION originally was recommended at 26 in May wher, it broke out on the upside of a long accumulation area. At that time it was stated that the objective was 0-)5 where a heavy supply of stock would be met. At Friday's high of 41 7/B, this objective has been approximated. Closing Averages Dow-Jones Ind. -,26.64 Dow-Jones Rails – 67.90 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN September 22, 1950 This memorandum is not to b. construed 1111 an offer or solicitation of offe,.. to buy or sell any ,ecurltlos. From time to lime Waldon, Hoffman & Goodwln may hay. an Int….lt in lome ot all of the securlthll mentioned herein, the foregoln9 matl!rial has been prepared by us a1 a matter of information only, It is based ut!on Information believed liable but not neceuarlly compl.t., Is not Guaranteed lIS accurate or final, and i, not Intended to foredose Indopendent inquiry. . ;… \' .,… -. – ……

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1950

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1950

Tabell's Market Letter - September 29, 1950
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Walston.Hoffman &, Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N. Y. 3S Wall Street DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55'77 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9-3232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 2bS Montgomery Street SUTTER '1700 The market underwent a week of rather erratic gyrations. After reaching a high of 227.51 on Monday, the market declined to a low of 222.00 early Wednesday. The favorable news from Korea resulted in an advance that .. reached a high of 227.69 on 'lhursday. It will be noted that at no time during the week was last week's high of 228.17 penetrated and that the week's low of 222.00 was below the previous week's low of 223.00. Wide price fluctuations after a steep advance quite often are at least a preliminary indication of a change of trend. The market as a whole has been unable to make much upside progress since the high of 222.17 reached on August 24th. From the July 14th low to August 24th the market advanced almost twenty-seven pOints. In almost the same period of time since August 24th, the market has been able to advance only six pOints, regard- less of sharp upswings in individual issues. Continue to advise caution. Below is a review of some of the issues in my recommended list,plus a few that have interesting patterns ANDERSON CLAYTON & CO. was originally recommended in July in the 55- 57 range. The recent high was 71 3/4. The stock has broken out on the up- side of the long 47-61 range in which it had held for three years. The technical objectives indicate an initial intermediate advance to 85,follow- 'ed by higher longer term levels. Would buy during periods of decline in the general market. CHICAGO, fULWAUKEE, ST. PAUL, PFD. reached a new high for the move at 45 on Friday. This issue was placed in my recommended list in July when it was selling in the low 30s.. Stock is a volatile performer and may work somewhat higher, but the upside objective was 45 and this has been reached. EVERSHARP , INC. was recommended early in the year as a low priced spequlation at 10 3/8. A high of 12 7/8 has been reached. There is some supply of stock at 13-15 which may take time to penetrate, but the longer .term accumulation pattern in the 7-11 range indicates a potential 17-20. Would purchase on moderate dips. GRAY MANUFACTURING has been mentioned several times in this letter. The company anufactures a dictating machine which seems to have caught the public fancy. Sales have increased sharply. The company recently de- clared a 251 dividend, the first since 1945. The supposition is that if earnings hold up, this payment will be continued quarterly. The stock has done little r;,arketwise. It has held in the broad 7-14 range for over three years. An upside penetration woulj indicate a level above 20. Ability to reach 12 would be an encouraging near term development. At the present price around 11, tile stock appears to be an interesting speculation with an excellent potential income. PLYMOUTH OIL, which closed at 48 3/8, is not on our recommended list but it has one of most attractive patterns in the oil group. The stock has held in the broad 37-50 range for almost two years. The recent high .. of 51 was encouraging. Due to present position of general market, would endeavor to buy on price declines. There is support at 46-44. The upside potential indicates a testing of the 1948 high of 70 followed by higher , levels. STUDEBAKER CORP. was originally recommended at 18. It reached a high of 35 3/8 in June and declined to 26. Stock has rallied back to 33. The objective is 33-37. Some further strength is indicated but the stock is approaching its objective. ' U. S. RUBBER reached a new high since 1947 on Friday at 51 3/8. This stock is not on our recommended list but it has a most interesting forma- tion. It was in a pronounced downtrer,d since the 1946 high of 80. At the June, 1949 low of 32, it appea.red to have reached its downside objective. Since then it has formed a very strong technical pattern. Would add the stock to recommended list on price declines. The potential upside ob- jective indicates the possibility of substantial price appreciation. Closing Averages Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails .September 29, 1950 EDlUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This hllYe memionrtenredsvtl'fIln is not some to or b. all construed . 611 of the s4Icuritiel oft.r Dr ,ollenaUon of mentfoned herein. The offofre.'golfnogbumyateorris11Ihaasn)'bereencurp/'feiep', rFedromby time to us as I!I timma.HeWr 0h1tonIn'fHoortmfmhao-nn o&nlyG, oIotdwISinbameady upon Information bell,'.-.d reliable but not necessarily complete, Is not guarant..d as accurate or final, and is not Intended to foreclose Independent inquiry. I I , 3' ..talill .. I ….. Iblll ,iL.'''''',II,I''''''1 .11..1111 I.

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