Viewing Year: 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - October 11, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 October 11, 1985 – – c ThemarkeL environment-. sinceOctober-beganas-turned.f-rom-oneof……decline–toone- of —-c-dullness The Dow'';'eachedi!s 'low at 1297.94 on September 20, imd the S & P 500, a better measlI'e in this case, moved to a new low on September 25. Since that time, both averages have rallied modestly. T.he current hiatus affords an opportunity to assess the damage which has been done. –'-' On an intra-day basis, the S & P 500 is down 8.5 since its mid-July high. A study of the action since that time of 1303 NYSE stocks shows that the decline in the average issue was a good deal greater. Measuring from the July 19 close to the individual low in each case, the average NYSE issue decilned 14.43. The Decilne No. of Stocks distribution of the individual declines is 0-5 139 shown in the table at right. The diffi- 5-10 286 culty of the recent environment from a 10-15 359 portfolio management point-of-Vlew is 15-20 270 underscored, not only by the average 20-40 218 drop of over 14, but by the fact that 40-plus 31 249 issues, or 19 of the total, dropped, during the July-October period, 20 or more, with 31 posting declines of greater than 40. As is generally the case, certain market sectors were particular targets for weakness. 128 issues declined 25 or more from mid-July. Of these, 21 could be generally identified as belonging to the electronics-semi-conductor sector. All of the stocks in the S & P hospital-management group were included in the list, along with a fair number of airlines. There was also considerable representation of financial and utility stocks and a fair number of retailing issues. Market action to Wednesday's close shows that relatively little of the technical damage done – – – h a s – y e t 4 e e n – r e p a i r e u – .-Wlffi-measure-tJre-amount-uf-indiv1uualecovery-fronrthe-jows-irom-both'''—,-,,,-1 a time and percentage-change point-of-view. Considering the former aspect, the table at left shows Date No. of Shares the date on which each of the 1303 individual issues made July-Aug 315 its low. What is particularly striking is the fact that no Sept. 3-13 96 fewer than 315 stocks were continuing to new lows as Sept. 16-20 217 late as this week, and 547, or 42, have posted their lows Sept. 23-26 128 in the past 10 days. This suggests that, despite the mild Sept. 30-0ct. 4 232 recovery in the averages, a fair number of stocks still Oct. 7-9 315 remain in downtrends . From a price-recovery point-of-view, the record has been spotty. After examining the post-July lows for the 1303 issues, we went on to inspect their subsequent highs. On the plus side, it must be noted that 371 stocks completely recovered their declines and moved ahead to new highs above their July 19 close. On the other hand, as of Wednesday, an un weighted average of the 1303 stocks was still down over 8 from July 19. 1055 issues were still below their mld-July highs as of Wednesday, and only 65 had advanced by 10 or more above that high. In the case of many issues, the recovery has been modest. 243 stocks had. as of Wednesday, recovered less than 20 of the total decline posted during the period. As is the case with the large declines, the best recoveries were centered in a few areas. Renewed strength in the consumer group was signified by the fact that 32 issues in that group were among the 131 stocks showing the best advances from their July highs. Domestic-oil and drug issues were also liberally represented in the list, but there seemed to be little evidence of new long-term leadership coming to the fore. The action of individual issues, in summary, suggests that the damage done by the summer's decline is at present not yet totally repaired; AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (10/10/85) 1335.46 182.95 2399.64 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statemlJnl or eplcSSlon 01 opinion or any other maIler hereIn COntained IS or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, drrec11y or IndirectlY, an oHer or the sollCI\atlon 01 an offer to buyor sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented meralyfor the convonlonce of the Subscriber White we behevethe sources 01 our mlorma\lon to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the at.culacy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any actlCn to be taken by the SUbscriber should be based on hiS own Investigalton and Inlormatron Delafield Harvey, Tabel1 Inc, as a corporal Ion and Its oilicers or employees may now have or may later tae POSitiOnS or trades In respect to any securities mentioned m thiS or any luture Issue, and such position may be ddlerent tram anyvlcws nOwor hereafter e.(prcssed In Ihlsor any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Taben Inc, whIch IS registered With the SECasBn Investment adVisor, mByglve adVice 10115 mvestm(!nl advlsmy and othN customers Indepondentty 01 any statements made In thiS 01 In any othel Issue Further Inlormatlon on any securll y montlonerl herein IS available on requast

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - October 18, 1985
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– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 October 18, 1985 – – ..- — With -Rn almosL18point rally-n .Wednesday, the DowJonesIndustriaLAv-erage.rocketed.. to a new high this week Readers of this letter are aware that this particular eventuality was expected, although the timing was not. We had surmised a more protracted base formation period with an advance to new highs taking place around year end. The base formation actu- ally completed itself a great deal more rapidly, and the actual breakout took place earlier this week when the Dow moved above 1340 on Monday. As has been widely advertised, both here and elsewhere, the broad based indices are lagging behind the DJIA to an unusual degree. As of Wednesday, with the Dow at a new high, the S & P 500 was a hug.., 7.67 points behind its high of July 17. This, however, does not essentially alter the overall market pattern. Upside objectives for the base formed since July are modest, with targets in the 1400- 1418 area. Earlier bases yield upside targets in the high 1400's. These objectives are not in- consistent with our overall reading of the market pattern, as will be developed further below. New highs are helpful to the technician since they provide fixed benchmarks. We know, for example, that a bull-market process, in the DJIA at least, was intact this Elk as the high was posted. As far as market breadth is concerned other benchmarks emerge. On Wednesday, when the Dow first posted its new peak, our daily breadth index was 14.26 points below its previous high, which had been posted 61 trading days earlier on July 19. This is a quantifi- able condition which we can compare with the historical record. The first question which must be asked concerns the likelihood of the current breadth divergence's being erased in later trading. A check of the record shows that there has been no breadth divergence in excess of 14 points in any bull market since 1949 which has later been cancelled by new breadth highs within the same bull market. The current divergence may now be said to have existed for 61 days. There are only two caseson recordoLJongerd;x.eJ.'gences….pr,ior to the final one at a bull end One was in 1975-1976. The other was the peculiar mini-divergence of 19R–19R5 which led to the rather severe 1983-1984 intermediate correction. It is highly probable, in other words, that the breadth peak last July was the final one for the current bull market. This piece of intelligence, although certainly not bullish, is not, it must be emphasized, one that should cause uS to run immediately for the storm cellars. As we have repeatedly noted in this space, the distance in time between breadth peaks and peaks in the averages has historically been substantial. In the eight completed bull markets since 1949, the shortest lead between a peak in breadth and a peak in the Dow was nine months, in May, 1965-February, 1966. The longest lead, in 1959-1961, was an astounding 33 months. These long lead times are one of the great advantages of breadth analysis. If we aSSume a breadth high as of July 19, we have a fixed benchmark comparable with past breadth peaks. It is therefore possi.ble to measure how much each of the eight previous bull markets has advanced following occurances comparable to the present one. In the 1950's such advances were large, ranging from 15 to 25. However, the four most recent bull markets saw advances in the 6.0-12.8 range. These percentage advances would be consistent with the upside objectives mentioned above. The one factor that argues against an excessively protracted upside move at this stage is the maturity of the cycle, which must, we think, be dated back to August, 1982. However, this would still allow for an advance continuing into next spring with a target somewhere in the 1400's. This scenario, subject to revision, appears the most likely one at the moment. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (10/17/85) 1368,83 S & P Composite (10/17/85) 188.36 Cumulative Index (10/16/85) 2406.37 No statement or epresslon 01 OPinion or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly or indirectly. an oHer or the sollcltallon of an oHer 10 buy or sell any security referred 1001 mentIOned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience 01 the subSCliber While we bellell'e the sources of our intO/mahan to be rehable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norolthe statements made herein Any aellon to be lalen b the subSCriber should be based On hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey. Tabell Inc as a corporation and lIs oUlcers 01 employees, may now have or may laler take. positIOns 01 trades In respect to any seCUrities men\toned In thiS Of any future ISSue, and such POlhon may be different Irom any views now or hereafter e1pressedm thiS or any other Issue Delaflefd Harvey labetl Inc, which IS registered With Ihe SEC as an Investment d(jvlsor maygrve adVice to lIs Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently 01 any statemenls made 111 thiS or In anv other Issue Further mformatlon on anv securrly men\!oned herein IS available on leQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - October 25, 1985
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'U'Lii.\ IBUE n. n. ' S Lii.\R&E'U' n..1E'U''U'IER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 9872300 October 25. 1985 The most significant feature of thIS week's letter is, actually. the masthead. Readers will note that it carrIes our new address. 600 Alexander Road, and, more importantly. our new telephone number. I (6jj,9 98143 00, ur,post-)ffice-aldl'ess-an d zip ,ode7 –Princeton ,-dfow'/Brsey,-eS5 40—remam the–'….t— same. All ofthis is by way of announcement that Delafield. Harvey, Tabell is now located-In its new quarters ,a scant five miles away from the old ones on the south, rather than on the north. side of PrInceton. We know that most of our readers have experienced the trauma and chaos involved in office and/or residential moves and have no partIcular Interest in the parochial woes generated by our present transfer. It goes without saying, moreover, that the basic objective behind our decision to relocate was to achieve the sort of physical facility which would enable us better to serve our chents. Nonetheless. the occasion of the move constitutes a stimulus for some thoughts on the operational philosophy of Delafield. Harvey. Tabell. which. we think. may be worth sharing with our readership. Fifteen years ago. the Delafield. Harvey. Tabell Division of the then Montgomery. Scott and Co. fIrst opened Its doors at 909 State Road here in Princeton. The principals of the operation had been officers. for many years. of different NYSE member firms in New York City's financial district. They were accustomed to spending large parts of their day commuting to the Wall Street area from suburban homes. The decision to locate the new operation in the relatively placid. university-town atmosphere of PrInceton was a conscious one, engendered by the realization that ours was essentially a service business — one in which there was presumably a correlation between hours spent at one's desk and level of service to chents. Those clients were not beIng served, quite obviously, by principals and employees who were spending a major portion of their day as passengers on a steadily deteriorating train service to New York City. The idea. strangely enough. was a fairly radical one at the time. especially to those who had spent their entire business career m the global-village atmosphere of Wall Street — an atmosphere which still exists and whiCh we still miss, at least to some very small degree. However. even 15 years ago, the age of communications was upon us. and we were able to put in place in Central New Jersey all the facilities to WhICh we had been accustomed In the city. Needless to say, communlCation facilitles – – —h'RVe-tmprove-n-sttU-fulth-er Over-a–'-deCade-ll-ndnmf;affdYlTIa–pracbcru' sense. we are, -tonay , – as close to major financial markets as we were when they were around the corner. The major change, then, has been one of style, and we continue to feel, as we did at the outset, that the relatively relaxed atmosphere of Princeton, with all of our associates residing within a few minutes of the office. essentially cmributes to better client service. What should be stressed is our belief that this will remain unchanged with our move to larger quarters. One writer noted, when DHT began. that we rented a furniture store and set up shop. n This referred to the former usage of the space at 909 State Road. a small portion of which we first occupied. With growth over the years. we ultimately found ourselves occupying a major portion of that building. and the pressures became sufficient that the desirabIlity of a move to new quarters. designed as office space. became apparent. Our new location is in a just-completed office building -in t.he heart of the so-called Route-1 corridor of Middlesex-Mercer County. with a number of Fortune-500 neighbors and with at least some of the atmosphere that we left behind m New York City some 15 years ago. Some of the published prOjections regardmg the Route-1 area. mto which we are catapulting ourselves, are rather interesting and create a certain sense of deja vu in one accustomed to financial markets. The office-space density of our new 10catlOn we are told, will, in the late 1990 ' s, be equivalent to that of downtown Houston. Rosy predicltions are made on the one hand regarding future levels of real estate values and, on the other hand, the usual dire projections are heard regarding traffic density, environmental impact, etc . etc. In all this. Just as is the case with popular concepts which move the stock market, there is some element of truth. As is the case wlth most stock-market stories. however. the projections — on both sides — tend to exaggeration. Traffic is bad and will undoubtedly get worse, but all of our employees still reside within a few minutes of their workplace. The view out the window of our new offlCe remains one of trees and greenery with the towers of the UniverSity in the background. We will, we think. be enjoying the same atmosphere in our new location that has prevailed for 15 years In the former one, along with facilitIes ,that will enable us more fully to meet the demands of our clientele. We look forward, over the next few months. to meeting clients in our new pfflces. and to them we offer the assurance that the service and philosophy of DHT will remain unchanged. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (10/24/85) 1358.31 188.02 2433.65 No statement or epresslon 01 OplnlOO or any other matter herein contaIned IS or IS to be deemed 10 be directly or Incllrectly, an oller or the SOliCitation of an olfer 10 buyor sell any security referred toor menl10ned The matter IS presented merety lor the convenience of the subscriber White webehevethe sources of ourmlorma\lon lobe fellable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any actton to be taken bv the subsCliber should be based on hiS own inVestigation and Inlormatlon Delafletd, Harvey, Tabelt In(, as a COrporation and Its oilicers 01 emptoyees, may now have or may later take, pOSitions or \Jades In respect to any secunUes mentioned In thiS or any fulure Issue, and such pOSlhon may be dlflerent from any views now 01 herealler epressed In Ihls or anyolher Issue Delafield, Harvey labolt Inc which IS reg1stered With Ihe SEC as an Investment ddvlsor, mav gIVe adVice 101tS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independentty 01 any statements made In thIS or In any other Issue Furl her mlormatlon on any secunty mentioned herem IS avaltable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - November 01, 1985
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V Lii.\1m1ED..D..'S Ia1iI Lii.\ IRl lEV Il.IEVVIEIRl 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 November 1, 198, Market action this week followed a familiar pattern. Prior to a Thursday pullback, the . – Dow Jones lnaustrliJ.l1Verage- on o-ctooer- 30posfeda-ne-w -alltifijehlgWll.t137''; '7, -b-e(trlng the- – – 1369.29 peak it had scored a week and a half before, on October 17. At the time of the midOctober high it was widely remarked, both here and elsewhere, that the performances of the Dow and the broaderbased indices had been quite different. A day prior to the Dow's high, the S & P 500, for example, had reached 187.98. This left it almost 4 below its July top of 195.65. The difference is beginning to be erased. The market's second short-term upside thrust this week saw the S & P advance to 190.07, closer to although still a fair amount away from its all-time high of last summer. Interestingly, the original reason for the dichotomy was removed, on Wednesday, in action taken by Dow-Jones itself. That reason had been the action of General Foods which, in the wake of the announcement of its takeover by Philip Morris, had moved recently some 48 above its mid- July level. This week its acquirer, Philip Morris, was substItuted for it in the DJIA. In an era when cigarettes are being equated with original sin, it would have been inap- propriate to have two tobacco stocks in the Dow, and American Brands, therefore, was duly re- moved. We consulted with Dow-Jones prior to the changes, and AMB's successor, McDonalds Corp. appears to us to make eminent good sense. It was I indeed, one of the issues mentioned in this space as a potential Dow replacement on the occasion of the 100th birthday of the Industrial Aver- age in July, 1984. This issue having been disposed of, it is our own feeling that the S & P 500 will shortly follow the Dow into new high territory. The broader index's move to 190 this week constitutes an upside breakout from what looks like a head-and-shoulders base formation, with an objective around the 200 level, comfortably above its all-time high figure of last July. Whether or not the S & P will again begin consistently outperforming the Dow, however, is more of an open question. -IL…we assume that the latter averagl'erior performance is going to continue over the interme- diate term, it is necessary to examine the implicationS, -if any, of suclf actlon-. — ………. — – – – -.- i A number of commentators, referring to the phenomenon of the DJIA's leading the S & P on the upside, had called it a divergence. We cannot quarrel with this as English usage, since it is possible for any two numerical series to diverge, and the two averages have, in fact, done so. It should, however, be noted that ,within the professional community of technicians, the term di- vergence is generally taken to mean diverging action between the Dow and measures of market breadth, not other indices such as the S & P 500. Such a condition exists at the moment, will probably continue to exist, and the ramifications of this divergence have been discussed at length in this space. The condition, as we have noted, suggests a market peak likely to be scored at some point in the future, although not necessarily over the short term, since the historic lead time of breadth over the Dow at market peaks tends to be significant. It is this lead time that makes breadth analysis useful. By contrast, however, inferior action on the part of the S & P 500 is of questionable usefulness as a market predictor. The mistaken impression that superior performance by broad-based indicators is bullish may arise from the fact that such action, with some frequency, has often begun manifesting itself somewhere in the fairly early stages of major upswings. For example, the 500 began to outperform the Dow in late 1982, a few months after the August, 1982 bottom. Although the market had al- ready moved up significantly by that time, the outperformance continued through the fall of 1983 as did the market rise. Superior S & P action reasserted itself in the spring of 1984, shortly before the intermediate-term bottom in July and continued until this summer. A period of Dow outperformance began last May. The trouble with prior periods similar to May to date is that they have been initiated at widely different points in various market cycles. Occasionally they have occurred well after peaks, and, with equal frequency, they have taken place too far ahead of important higbs to be of any use. Reference to divergence. in other words, is best restricted to the classic technician's usage, comparing the Dow with market breadth and not with broad-based indicators. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1383.14 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 189.77 Cumulative Index (10/31/8,) 2444.83 No statement Of epresslon of opinion or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or mdlrectly an offer or the sollcllatlon of an offer to buy or seli any secuflly referred toor mentioned The mailer IS presented merely for tho convenience at the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, weln no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be laen by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may later tae, POSitions or trades In respect to any secufilies mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue and such pOSition may be dlilemnt from any views nower hcreafler expressed In thiS or anyothel Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may glV!! advfce to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers mdcpcndcnHy of any statemenls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further informatIOn on any security mentIoned herem IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 08, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 08, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - November 08, 1985
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DLinIBUEIL.IL.' S IiijiJ Lin IRl IED 1L.1EDD1E1Rl 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. PR If'lCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 November 8, 1985 ..'; —, The……,week!smar..ket8ction occasioned 8bit,of4anfar.et-so uchbecause-e-of..,new.aUt-ime-,Jrighs,in. the Dow on Tuesday and Wednesday, 'but 'because Wednesday's close moved the DJIA' above 1'400. As the average moves higher I financial commentators are going to have to become less euphoric about magic numbers ending in two zeroes. At current levels. a lOO-point move for the Dow is just a bit over 7, a figure just barely qualifying as a meaningful short-term swing. There appeared. as the new highs were scored, to be a fair amount of fighting the tapel! gOlng on. Those who had been bearishly inclined before the entire process started were, as of this week, still clinging to the straw of the S & P 500's failure to post a new peak. As we noted last week, we thInk this bit of bearish ammunition will soon disappear, since our own short-term objective for the 500- stock index IS 200, a level which would place that indicator in new high territory with room to spare. The bearish case had been based on the scenario of a major high's having been made back in July, coupled with the noticeable deterioration. particularly in terms of breadth. that followed the achievement of that peak. We have been discussing this deterioration at various times in this space throughout late summer and early fall. The manifestations thereof still exist and constitute a fact investors must live with. What this letter has tried to do, while drawing attention to the less-than-scintillating breadth action which featured mid-July-mid-October. was to put that phenomenon into historical perspective. What we now have is a quantifiable phenomenon with certain benchmarks. The most important such benchmark is July 19, 1985, the day that market breadth indices scored theIr high. New highs have now been being posted in the Dow for almost a month, and breadth indicators remain significantly below last summer's levels. The divergence could, of course, be cancelled by new highs In breadth. Indeed, it can be noted that breadth action ceased being substandard on October 8, and has, actually, been slightly above average since that time. Examination of the record, however, shows that a breadth de- cline of the magnitude of July 19-0ctober 8 has never. in recent market history, subsequently been erased. We are. therefore, willing to make the assumption that this partIcular divergence will not be erased either. 1 The pitfall to be oiin breadth analysis is dnlwing near-termjmplications from breadth pe,aks'.', -lf-I … s noted above, Jiilfl9, wIth Its close of 1359.54. IS noW a benchmark wHlCh can be compared to sImIlar dates in past bull markets. As we have p6inted out, the Dow, in the post-World-War II period. has, in eight different bull markets, ultimately moved above its breadth-peak level by amounts ranging from 6 to 24. This range equates to 1440-1685itl terms of today's Dow. Past lead hmes of breadth highs over market highs have ranged between nine months and three years which would suggest a bull-market top between March, 1986 and July, 1988. Now these ranges are admittedly so wide as to be almost useless, and our own tendency is to anticipate something on the conservative end of both. Even that anticIpation. however. leaves a fair amount of both room and time for profits in the stock market. In our own view. if there is anything particularly surprising about recent action. it has centered on the leadership. The following list shows the ten best acting S & P industrial-group indices for the past four weeks, together with their percentage change versus a 5.8 rIse in the Dow. l. Department Stores 2. Property-Casualty Ins. 3. Savings & Loan 4. Soaps 5. Multi-Line Insurance Co. 18.4 16.8 15.4 14.7 14.6 6. Pollution Control 7. Life Insurance 8. AIr Freight 9. Retail Specialty 10. Textile-Apparel 14.0' 13.7 13.6 13.4 12.8 What we have here obviously is a return to the atmosphere which prevailed between summer 1984 and summer 1985. We say this is surprising because we had thought that the deterIoration in these dis- inflation-hedge groups. between July and October, had been signIficant. Most stocks in this general class. however, have sailed merrily along to bull-market hIghs with, as noted, action superior to that of the Dow itself. This phenomenon engenders some of the same conservatIsm produced by examination of market breadth. Stocks WhICh have had this long an advafice- can certainly be' said to be at least partially ex' plaited, and, indeed, long-term upside objectives in many of these stocks are beIng approached. With the new highs, however. there obviously remains an absence of current top patterns. which, even under worst-case conditions, would take time to form. This conforms to the thesis that there remains a fair amount of life in the old bull yet. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) Cumulative Index (11/7185) 1395.18 192.71 2484.17 No statemont or expreSSion of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be dlrectty or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter is presented merely tor the convenience of the subSCriber While webellevethe sources of our Information to be rellabl'l, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norot the statements made herein Any action to be taken bv the subscrlher Should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc as a corporation and Its oilicers or employees, may now have, or ma( later take, POSitions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dlfferenl from any views now or heleafterexpressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, which Is registered with the SEC as an mvestment ddvlsor, may give advice to ItS Investment advisory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Furlher mforma\lon on any security mentioned herein IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - November 15, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 987-2300 November 15, 1985 Beginning the week with a 27-point surge, together with an 11-point followup on Thursday, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average pushed further into newall-time high territory. As e-JjadSuggesred- wol.ila'be tJje . case';' itsoined-ii1new'nigh' grourid-by-the broader-oased—- '— ….,… indices, including the S & P 500 and the NYSE Composite. We expressed the view last week that there was nothing particularly surprising about the move to new high ground and went on to sug- gest that the most striking phenomenon of the past two months had been the resumption of upside leadership by those issues which had led the bull-market phase from summer 1984 to summer 1985 and had undergone severe corrections between July and September. This week, we attempted to quantify that phenomenon. Decile —— 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 A v e r a 712/84-7/19/85 e ————— 103.44 65.96 52.74 43.71 36.20 28.0'2 20.39 10.97 -1.73 -31. 37 F' e r C e co t a e 7/19/85-9/20/85 —– – ——- — 11. 83 0.33 -3.23 -5.34 -7.11 -8.74 -10.46 -12.69 -15.97 -25.72 C h a n e 9/20/85-11/12/85 —————'27.76 17.! 7 13.72 10.88 8.59 6.46 4.! 1 1.19 -2.86 -13.53 To do this, we studied the action of 1211 NYSE stocks over three market periods, the 1984-1985 upswing, which saw a 25 rise in the Dow, the correction from July to September and -the-I!ecent rise fr.om-September-to.this-X.u.esdayWeankedtheper.f),anof-eQ()hstkinch-.- , period by deciles of approximately 121 stocks each. The average performance Declle DeC11e for 7/19/85 to 9/20/85 for each decile in each of the three 7/84-7/85 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 periods is shown in the table above. Next we tabulated how 1 11 14 10 5 14 8 10 11 18 the stocks in each decile, based on 8 10 15 17 8 9 9 15 21 10 July, 1984-July, 1985 performance, fared during the correction, the re- 3 10 9 13 12 10 18 13 13 19 5 4 7 14 10 11 14 19 18 10 10 9 sults being shown in the table at right. As can be seen, of the 121 best performing stocks on the upswing, 38, or almost one-third, ranked in the 5 6 7 8 12 14 15 15 14 12 11 19 7 3 10 5 11 17 14 12 14 16 13 10 15 17 12 16 17 12 7 10 5 11 9 14 15 15 14 10 11 10 17 7 last two deciles for the July-September 9 19 13 15 9 11 14 18 5 4 14 correction. Similar bias was shown 10 20 12 6 5 6 8 11 13 6 27 for stocks in the second decile. What was truly amazing, however, is the extent to which the best performing stocks of last year!. rise have recovered and led the market on the upswing from September to date. Dc lle Dec 11 e for 9/20/85 to 11/12/85 The figures for this period are shown 7/84-7/85 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 in the table at left. Of the 121 stocks ranked in the 1 33 21 22 8 5 5 6 10 5 6 first decile for the year-long upswing 2 8 20 25 16 13 13 6 6 11 4 — a group whose average upside 3 13 19 11 13 12 18 11 9 8 8 gain for that year was over 100 — 4-., 10 8 9 20 '21 11 9 16- 11 7 33 issues, or almostone in four, were 5 6 11 12 21 18 13 15 16 5 5 among the best performers from Sep6 10 9 11 20 8 14 12 16 12 10 tern bel' to date. 76 issues, or almost 7 9 14 7 7 12 14 24 14 10 11 two-thirds of the group, ranked in 8 10 8 6 7 15 15 12 12 25 12 the first three deciles for the recent 9 8 4 12 6 9 8 19 10 27 19 rise. Broadening the study further, 10 14 8 7 4 9 11 8 13 8 32 of 363 stocks in the top three 1984-5 deciles, 172 stocks, almost half, also found themselves in the first three deciles for the most recent upswing. It is quite clear, therefore, that the recent advance has consisted largely of extensions of the moves of disinflation-hedge issues, notably in the consumer and interest-sensitive areas, which led the market in its previous major upside phase. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (11/14/85) 1444.38 199.14 2553.60 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statement or epresslon of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, an olfer or the soliCitation of an oUer to buy or sell any secunty referred tOOf mentioned The matter IS presented merely !orthe COfwemence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable weln no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taen by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelt Inc, as a corporation and lis officers or employees may now have, or may laler take, pOSllions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue and such pOSItion may be dlflerenl from any views nowor hcreaiter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Delalleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS InveStment adVISory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informahon on any secull1Y mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 22, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 22, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - November 22, 1985
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V&.\ IBHELL' SiB &'\RIE'1J' IL.1E'1J''1J'IER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRI NCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9872300 November 22, 1985 If the recent rally has been a surprise to many analysts, its 23. OS-point extension to 1462.26 on Thursday probably generated total astonishment. It can, of course, be pointed out that the market is deeply overbought on a short-term basis but this, paradoxically, can be con- strued bullishly, since overbought short-term advances often initiate above average intermediate- term action. The only possible sign of weakness in the market's current technical condition can be ex- emplified by applying the classic test for a good stock recommendation. Such a recommendation should elicit a one-word response. Two such responses are appropriate. The first is That. The second is Here. The only possible quibble with current market action is that there are too many Here1lls and not enough Thatllts. A stock in the latter category should, by definition, be one that has been out of favor for a protracted period of time. From a technical point of view, that lack of investment attention will have produced a long accumulation range, often covering many years, during which the available supply of stock offered by disgruntled and impatient holders has been absorbed. Recent technI- cal action will have seen the stock break out of that long trading range, suggesting an upward adjustment to a new, and perhaps significantly higher, price level is imminent. There do, indeed, exist a few current That-type patterns. One such, offered purely as an example, might be Dupont. A Dow component, it has been out of favor since the Eisenhower administration. It has basically been a non-participant in the last three major market cycles hav- ing, in the bull phase of all three of those cycles, moved, roughly, from 30 to 50 and having then retraced that move on the downward swing. It has, finally, only this year, moved out of the re- sultant trading range, and iScurrently posting new 52-week highs. This is classic good technical – . – –antlon-;4Juttointlng-uuHhe-facHs-likely-to-elieit-ineredulit-yon–thepart-of-most-pept-f()lio—–I managers. Actually, the Dupont pattern is fairly typical of the chemical industry, not one that can be said to have been in recent favor. A few other such industries exist. The market's current in- fatuation with possible lower interest rates is an observable phenomenon, and it is logical to sur- mise that such lower rates might extend to the mortgage market and thus provide a stimulus for building activity. Building-material stocks, however, have only just recently begun to exhibit above-average relative action and, in the process, have tended to break out of the sorts of long trading ranges beloved by chartists. As we noted above, however, this sort of thing is somewhat atypical. We have been sug- gesting in recent issues, that the best relative market action has tended to be shown by those stocks which have been market leaders for the past three years, a great many of them, during the course of that leadership, having more than tripled in price. Analysis of the average food stock, for example, consists essentially of trying to project uptrend lines, trendlines which, as the stocks move to new alltime highs, are still a good piece away from being broken. Insurers and regional banks, by and large, pulled back sharply on the July-September downswing, but have quickly re- based and either moved on to new peaks or give every implication that they are about to do so. To a slightly lesser degree, this applies to other interest-sensitive sectors. Retailing issues, now being increasingly viewed as real estate plays and/or buyout candi- dates have also completed reaccumulation patterns and find themselves resuming the upward moves begun in the summer of 1984. The same is true of most drug stocks. However, mention of the fact that such stocks, now selling around three-year cycle peaks, are possible purchases based on relative strength is almost guaranteed to provoke the Here response — possibly rightly so. None of this, however, should be interpreted as having negative implications, at least for -the intermediate term. The most striking feature of the present market is the almost .complete – — absence of anything vaguely resl'mbling a distributional top, especially a major distributional top. Now we have been taught, in recent years, how quickly such tops can form and how rapidly surprise declines can ensue. Despite this, time is still required for reversal patterns to build, and it certainly will be required in the current instance, where, by and large, intermediate -term patterns consist of intact uptrends with recently-posted new peaks. The maturity of the current cycle continues to be a well-known fact, but the total absence of those conditions which would be necessary precursors to its reversal must also be noted. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (11/21185) 1464.56 201. 70 2580.92 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. NO statement or expreSSion of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any securUy referred to or mentioned The maIler IS presented merely forthe convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our information to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and In!ormatton Delal1eld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may later lak.e pOSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posl\!on may be dllfefent from any views now or heleaftere)(pressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice 10 lIS Investmenl adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 29, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 29, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - November 29, 1985
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T lii.\BIED..D..' S m1iJlii.\R IET D..lETTIER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 987-2300 November 29, 1985 Thanksgiving, 1985 should have been a particular occasion for stock-market investors to ' temem be!'tir Ablessing ,wJlwitthIIl!ljp',mawt,.lv'l.rgs,,,.af;JatW911!0t!,,J tOp9int . advance;haVingAposted 'newall-time highs on -the holiday eve. 'As a group, however, investors may not, in fact, have been sufficiently appreciative, as suggested in the lead story in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, which called the recent advance a strange rally and noted that Stocks Have Climbed, but Usual Euphoria Seems Oddly Absent. We confess that we agree, in large part ,with the Journal article. Our own investment ca- reer spans the bull markets of the 1960's. John Brooks, around that time wrote a book, about an- other stock-market period, entitled Once In Golconda, explaining the title by saying, Golconda, now a ruin, was a city in southeastern India where, according to legend, everyone who passed through got rich. A similar legend attached to Wall Street between the wars. The mid-1960's attitude was not all that dissimilar. Our own reading of the current level of Wall lit reet euphoria would place it at a point on the scale not too far removed from that of the early 1950's. Shortly before that time, the writer's late father ventured the opinion in this letter that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, then below 200, would ultimately surpass its 1929 high of 386. He later revised this to mention a specific tar- get of over 500 by the mid-1950's. For this, he earned a reputation as some sort of kook — or whatever the 1950's equivalent of a kook was. The prevailing Street attitude in those days, with most of its luminaries having undergone the dismal 1930's as their formative years, was that signifi- cantly higher prices were not only unlikely — they were unthinkable. The Journal in its Wednesday article, was at least able, after, we suspect, a fairly inten- sive search, to discover a number of analysts who were at least willing to talk about higher levels. One suggested a Dow gain of 800-1000 points over the next five years, and the venerable John Templeton noted the possibility of a 3000 Dow by 1991. The point is that these predictions, on the high end of the current optimism scale, are not particularly startling. 1000 points on the Dow in –rfive-yenrs-equals-an-annttai-compoundedgainof-H-;-,-and-3000DJ-IA-tal'getfor–l991wol'-ksoutAo. – just under 13 on an annual basis. Both figures are above the long-term rate of return offered by the stock market during this century, but not by wldly unrealistic amounts. An inspection of stock-market history will show any number of five-to-six year periods when the total appreciation on the Dow was well in excess of that figure. From 1949 to 1956, for example, the annual percent- age appreciation for the average was 18!. In our own view, a workable hypothesis for making long-range projections is that a secu- lar bull market 'lxisted from 1949 until 1966, a 17 -year timespan. We also thinK it arguable that a watershed low, similar to 1949, occurred in 1974, following which 17 years takes us to 1991. The 1949-66 rate of growth was 11. 38, and a similar rate would have us, in 1991, at 3592. Our own technical work confirms the possibility of such higher upside objectives. The upside target based on the 1978-1982 accumulation is 1700, and this is confirmed by the 1984-1985 formation. A longer-term projection, taking 1966-1982 as a base, suggests 2600, and higher figures will probably become reachable from new bases formed along the way. However, while we are perfectly willing to go along with long-term suggestions of a higher stock market, we are not sure that they help solve the major dilemma facing investors at the mo- ment. That dilemma centers on whether or not the long-range objectives are going to be attained in a more or less straight line from current levels, or whether the advance will be interrupted by another cycle bear market, mild perhaps, but a bear market nonetheless. Readers of this letter are well aware of our own inclination toward the conventional view that the current cycle, having begun in August, 1982, is currently in a mature stage, and that there exists the possibility that the road whose destination, we fully agree, is a much higher market in the 1990's may involve a detour of fairly significant proportions. It is our hope that technical evidence, as it develops over the short termC. willpr,ovide the dilemma's resolution. . . .,.,.. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (12 00 p. m. ) Cumulative Index (11/27/85) 1475.11 202.75 2584,48 NO statemen or expresSion 01 oplOion or any olher matter herein contained 15. or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly. an oller or the sohcltahon 01 an oiler 10 buyor sell any security referred to or mentIOned The matter IS presented merely j() Ihe convemence oj Ihe subscllber While we believe the sources of ourlnlormallon 10 be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ollho slatemenlS made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own Investlgatron and mlormallon Delafield, Harvey Tabell Inc as a corporallon and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take poSitIons or trades In respect to any securities menhoned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different/rom any views now or hclealler expressed In thiS or any other Issue Dela/leld Harvey Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Iflveslmenl advisor, may give adVice to 115 Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently 0/ any statements made m thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security menl!oned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 06, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 06, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - December 06, 1985
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— – – – – – – – – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 December 6, 1985 Last week's stock market was yet another calculated to set commentators searching for superla- tives. what wIth a 25-point Wednesday advance and a brief flirtation with 1500 before a pullback on — – byThursda;y..Erom-,,–1J. . . tecJ the Dow– at -& -round- tnical. goi number nt….of..- view.. ther.e Mosf significant were morejffiportant occurl'ences wa-s the attainment .of a new high- tbhyandaailnyo-thberreastdtetmh.p,L…. . (\veekly breadth had already reached new peaks last Friday.) For Dow-theory buffs, there was also the achievement of a new peak by the Transportation average. Breadth analysIs, of course, IS a matter of mterpretation, and there are possible adjustments to normal breadth statIstics which, perhaps, should be made in the current envIronment. Nonetheless, it cannot be gaInsaid that conventIonal breadth interpretation now suggests an mtact bull market wIth a rather lengthly life span ahead of it. The latest rally, which began Dn Sepiel.!lber. 20 at 1297.94 and WhICh has advanced 14.37 Oller 52 tradmg days, has two predecessors in the current bull market — the initial explosion starting on August 12, 1982 and the start of the bull market's second phase which began m July, 1984, One unique element of this upswing is that, unlike its two predecessors, it did not begin after a lengthy decline. The present advance has essentially constituted an acceleration of an ongomg uptrend. 1985 is only the fourth year in the past 60 that has managed, so far at least, to finish without a correction of as much as 5 in the Dow. (The other three were 1954, 1958, and 1964.) The present market is compared wIth the other two on the chart below WhICh measures the action of the Dow plus daily breadth for the first 100 days of the three markets in question. The two earlier upswings have had their base adjusted to the equivalent of 1297.94, the tarting point fot tbe most recent ris'e. 9QSl '1iJ, 12 1982(-0-) DOW JONES lNOUSTIRL What is most notable is the extent to which the 1982 takeoff rally dwarfs the other two. Its initial advance, to a point relatively higher than today's Dow, was completed In Just three weeks. The pres- ent rise ,is 11 weeks old. By November 3, 1982, there had occurred a 37 advance, which would be equivalent today to a rise to 1780. The breadth index shows that the number of stocks advancing on the 1982 rally far eclipsed that of the two later rises. -… – – .. The 1984 move, although not as strong as the 1982 case, also far eclipsed the current one In Its initlal stages. The present rise, however, has caught up and has currently reached a point hIgher than any attained in the first 100 days of the 1984 advance. In terms of breadth, the current rally lag- ged in the fIrst couple of weeks, continuing the dismal breadth performance of late summer. Since early October, however, breadth has maintamed a steady advance and has moved ahead to a point almost com- parable WIth the 1984 experIence. The current rise, therefore, perhaps not surprisingly, shapes up as being somewhat less dynamic to date than were the first two legs of the upswmg. There seems to be little doubt, however, that its momentum will be sustainable for some time to come. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m,) 1477.75 S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) 202,67 Cumulative Index (12/5/85) 2625.14 ANTHONY IV, TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC, No statement or e/presslon 01 opinion or any other matter herern contarned IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or indirectly, an offer or the sollcltallon of an offer to buyor sell any secunty referred 10 or mentIoned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of Our Informal Ion 10 be reliable, weln no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor allhe statements made herein Any acllon 10 be tallen by the SuDsconer Should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformallon Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corpora\lon and Its ollicers or employees, may now have, or may later take P051tlons or trades m resect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different Irom any views now or heleafter expa;ssed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey labell Inc whIch IS registered With theSECas an mvestment adVisor, mayg!ve adylce to Its InveStment advISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further InformatIon on any secu'lty mentioned herem IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - December 13, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 987-2300 December 13, 1985 The week's market performance can, certaInly. be said to have been satisfactory. It placated – SrOeptitnedm-nbuemrb'e2r0.,'.ftio'eaAk-s16b.'5y-afdivaalhlcy-e;-ipnos'ttihng,D,oclwosienajbu.sote5-6J.tr!aLdainndg ,extende days. – dA,ltthhei)ui-ngtherwmeeddiaetme,onrissetra.lLteedguinasio-n'–'.-'-,'I week that the vigor of the uptrend. compared with a couple of its predecessors, was less than extra- ordinary. it was certainly nothing to sniff at. With new highs having become almost a regular fixture, it is perhaps worthwhile to reexamine the market's behavior in light of cycle theory. The market has not yet outgrown the cloak of conventional cycle analysis. but that garment is growing more and more uncomfortable. This raises a few questions. The basic tenet af cycle theory, let us recall, is that the market tends to move in repetitive up and down patterns, with these patterns possessing a definite and fairly regular periodicity. Our own interpretation identifies 23 major cycles since 1896, and scholars have carried a eimilar oattern back to the late 18th century. The average length of these cycles,rreasured from low to low,has been 45 months giving rise to the familiar term 4-Year Cycle. Skeptics regarding this pattern should attempt the exercise of listing all major market lows since 1938. With two exceptions (1946-49, and 1953-57) the low years will be seen to have occurred regularly at four-year intervals. Using monthly closing prices, and assuming a closing new high in December, the present cycle, whose monthly low was in July of 1982, is now 41 months old. Since the average cycle length is 45 months, and there have been ample instances of cycles in the 50-55 month range, there still remain some 4 to 14 months for a typical cycle completion. Let us recall, however J that we are measuring cycles from low to low. The current episode J therefore J must find time J in its relatively brief remaining lifespan, for a correction of the advance which continued through this month. What we are talking about here is the shape of the current cycle, or. in other words, what percentage of its total length is spent in an advancing phase. This shape, has, historically, varied widely, but there is ample precedent for as much as 90 of a given cycle consti- tuting the upward portiolll If we assume a maximum length of 55 months, with 90 of those months advancing, we are looking at a 49-50 month expansion phase, one which could take us into Fall, 1986. 1-; –'–ThlLw.t.-hoWllCl'!lingJ!e.,nwximurrV.nJe,!,,-9fhj!loxp'1!Ic . , – It is the strength of the current rally that causes some difficulties with this interpretation. . Breadth, as we noted last week, has recently moved to new peaks, and these peaks generally have significant lead time on peaks in the averages. There remaIns room in breadth analysis for a market topping out as early as next Fall, but just barely. There does exist, as we have noted in the past. a way out of this dilemma which is to posit a completed cycle at the month-end close of May, 1984 (July was the actual lowl. and a new major cycle upswing starting from that point. There are, however, problems with this interpretation. It is possible to regard November. 1983-Summer, 1984 as a completed cycle bear market — there have been smaller ones on record — but the resulting cycle length of 22 months is historically without precedent. The only comparable case on record was the 23-month cycle of August, 1921-July, 1923. As if to compen- sate for the shortness of that swing. the market then produced the most extended cycle on record, running 76 months through November, 1929. If the mere mention of that year causes trepidation, let us firmly note that, if such an experience is to be repeated, we are still in the early stages of the projected cycle, with some pretty astounding upside targets well ahead of us. We cannot say we are totally comfortable with this latter alternative, especially since the present rise has many of the hallmarks of a late-phase extension advance, which brings us back to the conven- tional interpretation outlined above. Even on this basis, however. it becomes evident that the current cycle is likely to run to the long end of the historical range, suggesting a continuation of recent strength for some time into 1986 at least. AWTrs, Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (12/12/85) 1523.85 208.32 2644.23 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. – No statement or expression 01 oplOion or any other matter herein contained IS or Is to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly an offer or the soliCitation of an oller to buy or sell any security referred loor mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience 01 the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to berehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may later take pOSlhOflS or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dillerent from any vle…..s now or heleafter expressed 10 thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harve , Tabel! Jnc ,WhiCh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS avaltable on request

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