Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1984

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 November 9, 1984 ed to Eleclion l'esults-re now in, and we are' the conventional election-year pattern. cBlaossiec-atlol-yd, isict'osveeerminsg-hoto w well–1-984 too far out willhaveconform- of line. With today's market level fairly close to' the 1983 close, the year appears unlikely to be a severe bear- market one. a statement whiCh has been true of all but three of the past 21 election years. Even more typically, the Dow is likely to end the year above the June average price of 1110.37, which conforms to the notable tendency toward strength in the second half. One way in which it did not conform was in the proclivity, which we pointed out early this year, for weakness through April to suggest a change in administrations. Such weakness indeed occurred, but it did not bother Mr. Reagan. In the spirit of looking ahead, we have produced the following table which indicates how the stock market did in the 22 most recent years after an election. Like our usual election-year table, it shows the average price for each month on the Dow as a percentage of the previous December's close (i.e . 110 means the market was up 10; 90 means it was down 10). Year President ———- 1897 1901 1905 Cleveland Mcllinle, Roosevelt 1909 Taft 1913 Wl1son – – 1917 W11 son —–t-921–Ha-r d 1-ns 1925 CoolidSe 1929 Hoover 1933 Roosevelt 1937 Roosevelt 1941 Roosevelt 1945 Roosevelt 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 Truman Eisenhower Eisenhower I\enned, Johnson 1969 Nixon 1973 1977 1981 Nlon Carter Reagan Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma, Jun Jul Ami Sep Oct Nov Il .. c D 84 82 82 79 R 96 97 97 104 R 101 106 112 115 R 99 97 97 101 D 97 92 91 92 l 10'2 96 100 99 R-I-04-105-104-107- R 101 100 100 99 R 102 103 103 103 l 103 92 96 111 D 101 105 104 99 D 98 92 93 92 D 101 103 103 105 l 101 99 99 99 R 99 98 98 94 R 97 93 94 97 D 102 105 109 111 l 101 102 102 104 R 99 98 97 99 R 100 D 97 R 101 95 93 93 94 94 93 99 103 104 79 85 92 104 107 101 95 98 101 109 104 101 99 92 93 89 107 108 114 117 115 118 123 134 105 107 110 it4 114 114 114 114 90 85 BEl 91 93 90 BB B8 – -98 10'2 98 93 88 83 75 -107 – 9-6- 95………93 9.b l00J05 74 .U.1 104 107 111 115 118 125 128 1-28 103 105 114 120 11 97 76 82 139 157 164 165 166 153 159 165 96 95 99 102 89 78 69 ,,9 89 92 96 97 97 93 89 85 109 109 108 110 117 121 124 126 97 93 97 101 102 105 108 111 94 91 '13 9 B9 93 95 96 100 101 103 98 94 89 88 88 112 112 112 117 115 114 117 118 106 100 100 102 10 108 109 109 101 96 89 87 87 8B BEl 83 90 88 89 87 90 95 87 80 92 91 90 87 B5 82 EI; 81 102 103 98 95 89 89 90 91 The most obvious conclusion suggested by the table is, unfortunately, that such years appear to have a fairly significant bearish bias. In 13 of the 22 years, the average price for December was lower than the previous December's close. This is in direct contrast with the record for all years since 1897. The market was up in 52 of those 87 years, or 60 of the time, thus sug- gesting that the post-election pattern is a bit unusual. Nor does Mr. Reagan's party affiliation help. The market has been down in the year following the election of a Republican in every post-election year since Hoover. (This bias was apparently not present in the first part of the century, with the accessions of Theodore Roosevelt, Taft, Harding, and Coolidge all producing good years.) Based on what we currently perceive to be good market action we are not sure how much weight should be given to the above table, especially as far as the first half' of 1985 is concerned. Nonetheless, it is worth keeping in mind. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1231. 78 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 169.10 Cumulative Index (11/8184) 2100.45 No statemerll or Brpresslon of opinion or flny otl1er matter herein contamoo IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an offer or the soircltallOn of an oller to buy or sell any secUrity referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merelv for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our rnlormatlon 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stateml'nlS made herein corporallon and Its oilicersor employees maf nON Any have action to be liJken or may later lahl, by the subSCriber pOSitions or Irade s s ho In uld be based on hiS own investig respect to any seCUrities mentio ation and ned In \hl mtormal10n D sor any future eIslasfuiee,ldnHdasrvuecyh Tabe)) Inc as a position may be different from any ews now or hewalter e)(presscd In this or my olher Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc, which 15 registered With the SEC as an Investmflnt adVisory and other customers Indflpendently of any statemonls m ..de 10 thiS or In any other Issue Furlhflr mformatlon on any securltv Investment mentioned haedrVeisinorImavaayiglalvbflleaodnvlrceflqtuoelsist