Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1984

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1984

Tabell's Market Letter - November 02, 1984
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'\ TABELL'S MARKET ….. H.' LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 November 2, 1984 Symmetry is a not uncommon feature of stock-market patterns, The Dow, it will be recalled, ,made its high almost a year ago, at 1287.20, and dropped sharply to 1134 in February. That low constituted the' bottom,lof a -trading – rangew-Iiich-lii.sted fOUr monthsand- waslinally -broKen- in-April'. ' . Then, unexpectedly. the rally in August of this year moved the Dow back through that trading range and almost to the previous high. However, the rally attempt failed some 50 points under the November peak. the most recent high being 1237.52 on September 14. On a much smaller scale, an- other trading range was then formed between1175 and 1200. The subsequent rally attempt in mid- October fruled just under the September high at around 1225. Despite the surface negativity of this pattern of lower peaks, there has been, since the mar- ket reached its hIgh in mid-September, some pattern of underlying improvement. This improvement can be seen in breadth figures. For example, if one cumulates the advice-decline difference since September 18, the day the market started down, one finds that it has returned almost to its start- ing point despite the fact the market was, in September, 20 points higher and indeed, the cumula- tive a /d figure was actually plus when the Dow was at 1225 two weeks ago. It is possible, by ana- lyzing some 9000 days of trading, to arrive at a normal or expected figure for both advances and declines, given the change in the Dow. We have set out in the following table the actual and ex- pected figures for each of the breadth components since September 18. The figures show fairly clearly that breadth on most days has turned out somewhat better than the normal expectation. DJIA A d van c e s Dec 1 1 n e sUn c h e d Cumulative Date F't Ch Act. Ex. Dlff. Act. Ex. Diff. Act. Exp. Diff. Act. Exp. SEF' 18 -10.82 SEF' 19 -13.25 687 559 128 77B 499 279 851 1048 -197 478 409 69 -164 -4B9 B04 1097 -293 419 405 14 -190 -10B7 SEP 20 3.53 SEP 21 -14.BO B68 877 -9 731 464 267 71B 731 -16 437 412 25 -40 -944 832 1137 -305 443 405 38 -I'll -1617 SEF' 24 3.32 576 861 -285 947 72B 219 472 406 66 -512 -14B4 SfP 25 2.10 649 835 -186 900 756 144 450 408 42 -763 -1405 SSEEFP' 26 27 44..6964938034- 897 877 -63 -53- 694 –5B1- 692 690 2 1'0-8- – 445608-4'4O0'7l-S5-6-1—'-2672'35–,1I2,0O-0I–I–. SEP 28 -10.05 658 556 102 872 1005 -133 427 396 31 -489 -1462 OCT 1 -7.73 458 612'-154 1101 967 134 422 402 20 -1132 -1817 OCT 2 -7.62 530 614 -84 926 967 -41 528 403 125 -1528 -2170 OCT 3 -8.50 496 598 -102 1057 997 60 448 406 42 -2089 -2569 OCT 4 4.53 786 876 -90 690 689 1 490 401 89 -1993 -2382 OCT 5 -4.86 769 667 102 691 898 -207 504 399 105 -1915 -2613 OCT 8 -4.64 517 648 -131 B41 861 -20 535 384 151 -2239 -2B26 OCT 9 -2.76 6BO 722 -42 794 B62 -68 514 404 110 -2353 -2966 OCT 10 2.10 711 B23 -112 7B5 743 42 471 401 70 -2427 -2BB6 nCT 11 5.B5 977 910 67 540 662 -122 458 403 55 -1990 -263B OCT 12 7.62 1067 960 107 4B4 630 -146 447 40B 39 -1407 -230B OCT 15 12.26 1019 1060 -41 550 527 23 427 409 IB -93B -1775 OCT 16 -5.19 743 675 6B 819 922 -103 443 408 35 -1014 -2022 OCT 17 -1.88 777 751 26 771 850 -79 462 409 53 -1008 -2121 OCT 18 29.49 1264 1462 -198 433 150 283 334 419 -85 -177 -809 OLT 19 23OCT OCT 0.55 -8.73 -4.19 1079 827 252 694 606 88 787 703 84 618 817 -199 859 1008 -149 767 904 -137 367 420 -53 471 410 61 463 410 53 284 -799 119 -1201 139 -1402 OCT 24 3.42 757 880 -123 807 741 66 472 415 57 89 -1263 UCT 25 -5.41 612 676 -64 946 932 14 459 409 50 -245 -1519 OCT 26 -6.07 490 657 -167 1050 941 109 465 407 58 -805 -1803 UCT 29 -3.54 598 710 -112 904 882 22 495 405 90 -1111 -1975 OCT 30 15.90 1083 1157 -74 500 457 43 447 416 31 -528 -1275 OCT 31 -9.93 744 578 166 821 1037 -216 461 411 50 -605 -1734 NOV 1 9.70 1027 1006 21 546 590 -44 434 411 23 -124 -1318 Especially significant is the fact that the number of declining stocks has, since September, generally turned out to be considerably lower than expected. For example, on September 21, with a 14. SO-point decline in the Dow, 1137 declines would have been normal. There were only 832. On 13 of the 33 days under study, the number of declining issues was more than 100 fewer than expected. Also interesting is the relatively large number of stocks that have managed to remain unchang- ed. On only two of the 33 days has the number of unchanged issues been less than one would normally expect. All this lends some credence to the belief that the ultimate resolution of the current impasse will be on the upside, perhaps even, in the process, erasing the breadth divergence which has ex- isted since mid-summer of last year. In any case, it will be worth continuing to watch breadth action closely. Dow-Jones Industrials (12'00 p.m.) 1220.07 S & P Composite (1200 p.m,) 167.35 Cumulative lndex (11/1/84 2074.27 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. NOTE In keeping with this letter's quadrennial tradition of predicting the result of the Presidential election, we forecast the reelection of President Reagan, No statement or e. pression 01 opinion or any other matter herein Contained IS or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or Indlrectlv, an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to bu) or sell any security re1crred tOOl mentioned The matler IS presented merely lor the con\lenlcnce of Ihe subscriber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable, we In noway represent or guaranteetne accuracy Ihereol nor 01 the statements made herOin Any aellon \0 be tal-en bv Ihe subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation ilno liS ofllcer, or omployeo may now I'ilve, or may liller tal-.(. pOSitions or trades In respecll0 any securities menlloned In thIS or any future Issue, and such poslilon may be diliment from any views nowor hO!l;afler c1pmssd In thiS or any olher Issue Delafield Harvey labell Inc whiCh IS reglslered With Ihe SECas an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 ItS mves/mlml adVisory and ollwr customcrs mocpeno8nlly 01 any Sla/ements made m thiS or many o/het Issue Further mlormallon on any socumy mentIOned herem IS avaIlable on reQuest

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