Tabell’s Market Letter – July 15, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 15, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - July 15, 1983
View Text Version (OCR)

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – July 15, 1983 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average plunged once more below the 1200 level at mid-week, thus markin-g the tenth successive week in which the market has been able to make little upside progress. Tlleeffectiv.eatarLoL.this…period..m uatJlOw–be..fixedas…May6.J 9.83whenthe-D.ow closed at I 1232. 59- followig 'a essentiallY u;'inte;rupted advance- of over 200 points 'since January – -Although the May 6 close was bettered slightly at 1248.30 in mid June, the entire ten week period now ap- pears as a sideways trading range. It has seen three corrections, in the 31-4 range, each one producing a low slightly below the 1200 level and (two to date) short-term rallies. As the period wore on, there emerged more and more forebodings from various quarters that the ten-week period might prove the precursor of something more serious, perhaps the first serious downside move since the bull market began last August. This may indeed be so, but, as our readers are aware, we have, so far, resisted the urge to state that such is definitely the case. We have cited as one of the reasons for our relative optimism the continued favorable picture shown by individual stock patterns. That picture is reinforced by a computer study we conducted this week analyzing the trading history since May 6 of 1893 individual issues, including most NYSE commons plus major ASE and OTC issues. This study reinforces the impression that, despite the rather desultory action of the averages, the market has not acted all that badly over the past ten weeks. Perhaps the best evidence for this is the continued stream of issues posting new highs each week despite the fact that the aver- ages were moving sideways. The following table shows the number of issues which attained their high for the May 6-July 13 period in each of the ten weeks. Also shown are the closing high and low for the Dow-Jones and its change for the week. Issues Making Dow-Jones Industrial Average Dates High for Period 95 High – Low – Close 1232.59 Points Change — 5/9-5/13 204 1229.68 1214.40 1218.75 – – 5/i66/20 85 1205.79 1190.02 1190.02 -13.84 -28.73 5/23-5/27 157 1229.01 1200.56 1216.14 26.12 5/31-6/3 75 1213.04 1199.88 1213.04 – 3.10 6/6-6110 103 1214.24 1185.50 1196.11 -16.93 6/13-6/17 264 1248.30 1220.35 1242.19 46.08 6/20-6/24 352 1247.40 1239.18 1241.69 – 0.50 6/27-7/1 178 1229.47 1221.96 1225.26 -16.43 7/5-7/8 174 1220.65 1207.23 1207.23 -18.03 7/11-7/13 206 1215.44 1197.82 1197.82 – 9.41 The even dispersal of issues attaining their peaks is a rather interesting phenomenon. Per- haps most interesting is the final line, which shows the action for the first three days of this week. Despite the new low posted by the Dow, it was the third best week of the ten in terms of issues attaining their highs for the period. It will indeed probably turn out to be considerably better than that, since the study does not include Thursday's and Friday's trading, the former, at least, being an up day. The study strongly 'suggests that the period has been one, to use a tired phrase, of rotating leadership. At some time during the ten weeks, most issues have undergone corrections of more than passing significance. The average correction, measured from the high for the period to its subsequent low, is 13.13, and the median correction -11.9. 631 issues have undergone correctil'ns of 15 or mope at somE Rtage of the proceedings. Nonetheless, despite the fact the Dow was some 35 points lower at Wednesday's close than it was on May 6, more stocks are higher today than are lower. 815 issues closed on Wednesday below their May 6 high, – and 32 are unchanged, but 1046 -issues were higher at mid-week than was the case in May. The average change for all issues over the period isa 4. 09 gain, with the median stock being up 1. 94. It does not appear, therefore, that, based on simple price action, the loss of momentum over the past ten weeks has been as serious as some of the more esoteric technical indi- cators might lead us to believe. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.' Cumulative Index (7/14/83) 1196.01 165.18 2003.58 No talement or expression of opinion or any other motter herein contolned fS, or IS 10 be deemed fa be, directly or mdHcctlr,' on offer or the SOIICllat,on of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the conveOlen of the subscriber Whl e we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stalements mude hereon Any 0(110n to be token by the subscriber should be bosed on hiS own investigation and information Jenney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporohon, and Its officers or employees, may now have, ar may later toke, POltiOns or trodes In respect 10 any securilles mentioned In thiS or any future lSue, and such pesltlon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISlue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered wllh the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe 10 lIs Investment adVisory and othel C'Vstomers Independently of any stolements mede In Ihls or In any other Issue Further information on eny securdy mentioned herein IS aVailable on request

Download PDF