TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANoe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 19, 1982 Regular readers of this letter are aware that it is our practice to follow the action of major market indices, in .terms.of.computed trend-channels.hesechannels aresimilarto the '!,eyeball -.,. trend lines drawn by technicians for years, but they have the additional virtue'of-being correct mathematical descriptions of past market history. In and of themselves, of course, such channels are simply descriptive, having no intrinsic predictive value. They do, however, possess the virtue of allowing the analyst to determine whether market action at any given time is consistent with that exhibited by past trends, thus allowing a judgement as to whether such trends may still be in effect. We plot these trends from past recognized high points to low points (or vice versa), usually trying to identify a major, an intermediate, and a minor trend. In the case of the Dow it seems obvious that the last major high was 1024.05 on April 27, 1981 and the last intermediate high on December 4, 1981 at 892.69. The last minor high may be taken to have occured on January 29 at 871.10. The low for all three trends was 795.47, reached on March 8. The following chart shows all three trend channels, with the Dow shown daily through this Thursday and the trend channels ..2!otted forward until early next Fall. DOW JONES INDUSTRIRL RVERRGE WITH COMPUTED TREND IRRED B( OELRI!LD, I-!P'!VE'!', TfI!!ElL The steepest trend, as is usually the case, is the minor trend from January. If this trend remains in effect, it can be projected forward to intersect the low point of the major trend channel at around 720 in late April-early May. This would be a logical juncture to look for a bottom to occur. If, on the other hand, the minor trend is broken, something that could occur with continu,ance of the recent strength, and the upper level of the intermediate channel, now around the 820 level, holds, the eventual bottom would have to be projected out further in time to a level just under 700 some time in September. Of course, the breaking of either or both trend channels on the upside could suggest that an attempt at a bottom was taking place at a higher level prepatory to an eventual assault on the upper limit of the major downtrend, which is now at approximately the 855 level. With the timing about right for the end of a major-cycle downphase, trend analysis may well be of some aid in pinpointing just when that phase may have reached its low. AWTr Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 804.03 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 110.37 CttfIltHate illi'lex (a 118182 1948.68 . No !.totement or exprenlon of Opinion or ony other matter herem contamed Is, or 1510 be deemed to be, dlrectlycr-indlreCtly, on offer or the solicltotlon of on offer to buy or sell ony se,urlly referred to or menhoned The motter 1 presented merely for the convenient! of tneSubscr,ber WhIle -He belIeve the Ources of our Informa hon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the s'otements mude herein Any action to be tolen by the subscriber should be based on hIS own Investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, moy now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any secUflhes mentioned In this or any future !ssue, and such posillon moy be d,fferent from any views now or hereafter expreued In thiS or any other issue Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, whICh IS registered wilh the SEC as on Investment adVisor, mav give advlCc to Its Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In ony other Issue. further ,nformatlon on any secuflly mentioned herCln IS avaIlable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08!S40 DIVISION OF MEMSEA NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEM8ER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE r– March 26, 1982 – I f -market-action-in-March -has-done-nothingelse, -i-t-has – at .Ieast createdA a-new-benchmarkdate That date, it can'now be recognized some three weeks 'after the fact, is 'II-larch' 8;-ori-which the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 795.47. At that level, the Dow, along with most other indicators, had decisively broken its prior low of last September and had reached a new nadir for the ll-month old downswing from the highs of April, 1981. All of this is not simply the technicians' oblique way of painting out that the market has rallied over the past three weeks, Indeed it has, and at Thursday's close, the Dow found itself up just over 4 from its March 8 low, Establishing that March 8 low as a benchmark, however, reqmres recognition of the fact that in many ways, market action since that date has been demorstrably better than the rather dreary sort of behavior which characterized most of last year. Using a 2 filter, the action of the past three weeks constitutes only the ninth identifiable rally since the beginning of the downswing, back on April 27, 1981. In terms of percentage advance. it has, so far, demonstrated nothing better than normal action. The swings for the eight completed rallies to date have averaged 4,2, and the strongest was the 6.5 rally from the September 25 low. In terms of staying power, however, the present advance is fairly impressive. Through Thursday's close, it has lasted for 13 trading days. The first bear-market rally back in May-June 1981 persisted for 24 days, but since that time tre market has been able to put on nothing better than an ll-day advance. It is, in sum, possible to detect substantive improvement in recent action. There are, indeed, other areas beyond simple measurement of rallies in which improving market action can be detected, Many individual issues have reached at least initial downside objectives and, in many cases, appear to be making attempts at base formations in recent trading. This sort of thing is reflected in the new-low statistics which, at least for the last downside phase, are a matter of record. Despite the fact that almost all major market mdices moved into new low territory early .this,month, .the.peak.number of individual stock lows achieved on March 9 was '263, considerably under the peak levels of aimost-60'Iich9.Kea-upbacKiTlsepteriiber. we'tio nol-UrtrrJrirn-misremiing– of the facts to call this a sign of technical improvement, at least in large sectors of the market. A number of signs of improving technical action are, of course, conspicuous by their failure to materialize. Breadth (the best advancing day so far featured 1210 advances on March 22) has been consistently less than impressive. Nor, despite the fact trading activity has picked up on the upside, is it possible to read too much comfort mto volume statistics. Volume reversal action, as we have pointed out, generalt'consists of a series of sharp one-day trading expansions to well above normal levels. What has instead been taking place is a steady expansion in the average level of volume which, on a 2S-day basis, has now reached over 57 million shares, by far its highest level on record. This high average level of volume will make it even harder for a conventional upside volume reversal to be recognized. Where does all this leave us In many ways the average investor can best obtain the answer by a process of self-examination — in other words by asking himself how the current improving market action makes him feel. The most bullish conventional wisdom at the moment would be the widespread certainty that the present rally constitutes a selling opportunity and it is only a matter of time before the market moves once again to new lows. On the other hand, to the extent that the current advance causes investors to feel that they have missed a major hottom, it becomes more and more likely that such a bottom has not yet occured. We are willing, for the time being, to remain neutral on the subject, which is why we went no further in our opening paragraph than identifying March 8, 1982 as a benchmark to watch. While recognIzing improvement — and indeed, as we have tried to point out, improvement of some signi- ficance in the past three weeks of trading — we think it grossly optimistic to suggest that improve- ment is dramatic enough to indicate the end of a confirmed ll-month downtrend. Moreover, while recognizing the possibility of further strength, we suspect. tl'!.at the least likely eventuality at the present time is for the market to run away on the upside. What we are saying, in other words, is that the technical picture has not been drastically altered by just three weeks of mildly amelior- ated action. Insofar as the pattern for the averages is concerned, the Dow has now moved up to the trading range, roughly between 820 and 840, which characterized most of February. The most constructive possible action, we think, would be a relatively protracted (2-3 week) period of backing and filling within that range. Were this to be followed hy a decisive move through 840, upside possibilitles would then have to be reassessed. For the time being, we are willing to await the formatIOn of this sort of pattern. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL AWTrs DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 822.01 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 112.40 Cumulative Index (March 25, 1982) 1078.12 oe,No sfatemen! Of expreSSion of opmlon or any other matler herein contOlned '5, or IS to be deemed fa direCTly or indirectly, on oUer or the sol,eltatlon of on offer 10 buy or sell any seC\Jr11y referred 10 or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While Ne believe the sours of our Information to be reliable, we 'n no way represent or guarantee the cccurocy thereof nor of the stateMents mude herem Any oeilon to be tolen by Ihe subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own ,nvestlgotlon and ,nformation Janney Montgomery Secll. Inc, as ( corporation, olld Its officers I)r employees, may now have, or may later toke, positions or trade! In respect to any securltlet menttoned In thiS or any future luue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS regIStered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to tis Investment adVisory and olhe! customers tndependently of any statements mode In Ihls or ' any OTher usue Further informaTion on any secvrlty mentioned herein IS aVOIloble on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVIBION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHAhlOe April 2, 1982 The S P 500 attained a high of 140.52 on November 28, 19S0, some 70 weeks ago, and, 'at fts-IowOii-March-S, was down'237Qoear marltet'by' allconventibhal-standards–Under-';'–'I' these conditions it is no surprise that large numbers of stocks are scraping along the bottoms of their ranges for that 70-week period and have, during the period, posted substantial declines. What is surprising, however, is that a significant minority of issues imd themselves, at the moment, in the upper 10 of their range since November, 19S0, having moved up 40-50 and retraced very little of that move. The following table, based on the S iii P group indices, highlights this fact. For each group, the first column shows its current decile or position within its 74-week range, ranked from 1 (highest) to 10 (lowest) The next two columns show the number of weeks since the high for the period was made and since the low for the entire time frame wss scored. From thst high and low is derived the last major move, the percentage change from high to low or from low to high, depending on which of the two was scored more recently. The final column shows the percentage of thst move retraced as of this Wednesdsy Typical bear market performance, of course, is that of the Oil group which is down 4S from a high made 70 weeks ago to a low made four weeks ago. Only 5 of thst total move has been retrsced. At the same time that this has been going on, however, the Retail-Department Store group has scored a 4S upmove to a high just a week ago and has, this week, retraced only 3 of the total move. Even in bear markets, diversity continues to be the rule. GR 0 UP mKS SINCE LAST PERCENT DECILE HIGH LOW HOVE RETRACED GR0 UP WEEKS SINCE LAST PERCENT DECILE HIGH LOW MOVE RETRACED AEROSPACE 10 65 2 -47.3 6.3 AlUMINUM 10 54 2 -45.2 3.3 AUTOMOBILE -I—EXCLUDIH6 GEN. MOTORS ,…6.7. 41 73 22 -37.4 31.8 22 -39.6 44.3 .- AUTOI'ATSAFTEIf1IARKET- 441'-2l-217-'6r.1 AUTO PARTS-ORG. EQUIPMENT 10 41 2 -24.1 B.O AUTO TRUCKS t PARTS 10 41 3 -36.4 1.8 BEVERAGES BREWERS I 0 67 44.3 0.0 BEVERAGES DISTILLERS 10 69 2 -29.2 6.1 SOFT DRINKS 3 42 73 32.1 24.7 BLDG. AIR CONDITIONING 3 13 67 41.6 20.7 CEMENT 10 40 0 -34.2 0.0 HEATING I PLUMBING 9 44 3 -35.9 13.0 ROOFING I WALLBOARD 10 O 0 -31.2 0.0 BUILDING COMPOSITE 10 40 3 -30.7 4.4 CHEMICALS 9 53 3 -35.9 10.0 CHEMICALS-MISC. 10 51 3 -32.2 3.7 COAl BITUMINOUS 10 37 3 -40.5 7.1 COMMUNICATION EQUIP/MFRS 5 21 57 64.2 49.9 COHPUTER SERVICES 9 43. 3 -37.6 12.5 CONGLONERATES 10 70 2 -30.6 5.B CONTAINER HETAl I GLASS 10 44 4 -27.2 0.1 CONTAINER PAPER 4 44 27 -21.9 65.5 COPPER 10 33 3 -57.9 6.0 COSHETICS 10 49 2 -33.2 5.4 ORUGS 7 43 68 24.2 6.9 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 8 40 72 25.4 76.7 ELECTRONIC KAJOR COS. 5 54 22 -22.8 53. ELECTRICAL HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE 3 43 68 35.6 25.3 ELECTRONICS-INSTRUMENTATION 8 43 3 -24.3 21.1 ELECTRONICS (SEMICONDUCTORS/CO 8 70 II -44.8 21.7 ENTERTAINMENT 2 43 73 52.2 18.6 FERTILIZERS 10 66 2 -68.1 3.0 FOODS I I 68 31.5 1.8 FOREST PRODUCTS 10 54 2 -41.3 4.3 GAHIN6 COMPANIES 5 44 26 -31.1 56.8 GOLD 10 73 2 -59.0 4.2 HOME BUILDING 10 5 2 -53.6 0.6 HONE FURNISHINGS 9 40 67 41.4 83.8 HOSPITAL KAHAGENENT COMPANIES 9 43 2 -3.8 17.4 HOSPITAL SUPPLIES 3 6 29 29.0 20.3 HOTEl/MOTEL 9 41 2 -32.0 17.1 LEISURE TIME 6 8 73 53.6 56.6 MACHINE TOOLS 9 41 4 -43.3 12.3 AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY 10 69 0 -48.6 0.0 KACHINERY CONSTRUCTION I HAT. 10 48 2 -32.8 2.1 KACHINERY INDUSTRIAL/SPECIALTY 10 71 2 -38.9 5.6 METALS MISCELLANEOUS 10 33 2 -2.9 6.5 MOBILE HONES 5 41 68 65.3 43.9 OFFICE I BUS. EQUIP. 9 71 19 -29.7 17.5 EXCLUDING I.U 101 2 -!O.J) 5.10. OFFSHORE DRILLING 10 66 27 -.8 8.1 CANADIAN OIL I GAS 10 33 2 -7.5 2.5 OIL CRUDE PRODUCERS 9 70 3 -51.0 10. OIL Ole IINHTETGERGATRElDiTDOEMDEISHTITCERHATIO1N0AL-170070-4 -253;.1o-5.794–1 OIL COMPOSITE 10 70 4 -48.1 5. OIL WELL EOUIPMENT AND SERVICE 10 70 0 -52.2 0.0 PAPER 10 53 2 -31.8 0.4 POLLUTION CONTROL 9 49 3 -37.8 1.5 PUBLISHING 5 U 68 31.0 44.2 PUBLISHING (NEWSPAPERS) 7 2 67 41.3 64.7 RADIO BROADCASTERS 5 21 67 34.2 42.3 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT 9 71 2 -38.3 11.5 RESTAURANTS 2 I 68 48.0 13.2 DISCOUNT STORES 8 45 3 -30,2 28.0 RETAIL STORES DEPARTMENT I I 68 47.9 3.1 RETAIL STORES(DRU6) 7 4 66 47.1 62.3 FOOD CHAIN 4 41 27 -21.4 69.5 GENERAL MERCHANDISE CHAINS 4 41 67 43.7 38.7 RETAIL STORES COMPOSITE 3 41 68 40.0 28.5 SHOES 6 42 68 36.5 51.6 SOAPS 1 4 67 28.4 6.9 STEEL 10 53 0 -38.0 0.0 EXCLUDING U.S. STEEL 10 53 0 -40.9 0.0 SUGAR REFINERS 7 73 26 -37.2 39.8 TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. 10 53 3 -40.5 8.2 TEXTILE PRODUCTS 5 48 67 37.8 42.7 TIRES I RUBBER 4 40 68 33.0 32.3 TOBACCO 6 20 67 22.6 51.7 TOYS 9 71 3 -55.6 11.8 ELECTRIC COMPANIES I 3 68 23.9 6.1 NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTORS 10 70 2 -36.5 7.6 NATURAL GAS PIPELINES 10 70 2 -1.5 5.5 TELEPHONE 4 19 68 32.5 34.6 EXCLUDING ANER. TEL I TEL 5 20 58 36.6 49.9 AIR FREIGHL. . , 9- 2 -43.1 15.7 AIR TRANSPORT 7 4 9 -44.8 35.6 RAILROADS 10 70 3 -3.7 6.0 TRUCKERS 9 42 66 SO.2 82.0 BANKS(NEW YORK CITY) 5 41 73 3.5 0.9 BANKS(OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY) 10 41 2 -29.7 6.4 LIFE INSURANCE 6 I 6B 29.0 SO.7 HULTI-LINE INSURANCE I 4 68 1.5 7.2 PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE 4 I 68 34.0 30.9 SAVINGS I LOAN COHPANIES 10 72 2 -52.7 7.3 PERSONAL LOANS 10 I 2 -27.1 3.7 BROKERAGE FIRHS 6 I 57 67.3 57. INVESTMENT COHPANIES 9 65 2 -30.9 11.2 INVESTMENT COS.(BOND FUNDS) 5 19 29 15.1 49.5 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS 5 34 70 35.3 44.7 DOw-.fones IlrdUlifrftils (12 00 pm.) 835.33 S iii P Composite (1200 p.m.) 114.43 Cumulative Index (4111S2 10SS.23 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No tolement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly. on offer or the sol,cllotion of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred 10 or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of Ihe subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be rellOble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of thc statements mude herein Any action 10 be laken by Ihe subscnber should be based on hiS own Invesligahon Clnd information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, Clnd Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may !cller lake, paslhons or Irodes In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thl or any future usue, ond such poSition may be different from any views now or hereofler expressed In Ihl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVICe to Its Investment adVISOry and athel customers ,dependently of any statements mode In thiS or In any alher luue Further Infarmohan on any secu(lly mentioned herem IS avollable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW 'tORI( STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER A.MERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE April 8, 1982 —– –We-are – hold-your hats —-about-to..ssue–another-oneof.outfearlessforecasts .The stOck market has eitlier reached a major bottom — or it hasn't. – If you, dear reader, are still with us after the above pronouncement, let us hasten to state that, in our view, it is not as entirely without information content as it might first appear, nor do we feel particularly inclined to apologize for it. Uncertainty is, very often, a fact of life, and the advisor does his audience no service by pretending that it does not exist. There is little doubt that con- ventional cycle theory argues persuasively in favor of a major stock-market bottom's occuring sometime during the year 1982, and at this moment, we have an identifiable low having occurred in the major averages exactly a month ago, on March 8. Market action since that time has been marginally con- structive. Indeed, a base could be forming which would make the most plausible short-term forecast one which called for a rally — perhaps extending as far as the low to middle 900's. Were such a course in fact to ensue, the obvious question would become whether or not such a rally constituted the initial phase of a major upswing from that March 8 low or whether another bottom, testing and lor penetrating March 8, was yet in the offing. Sticking our neck out just a shade further, we confess, that given current evidence, should a short-term rally take place, we would be inclined toward the latter view. We are not certain, in other words, that March 8 — or indeed the entire September, 1981-March, 1982 configuration — possessed all of the characteristics of a major cyclic bottom. This opinion is, of course, subject to change based on the further accumulation of technical evidence, and it will be our job to keep our readers thus informed. Characteristically, one of the more diffichlt decisions which' has to be made at the occurance of a putative major low is whether or not market psychology has reached its absolute nadir. Important bottoms in the past have tended to be characterized by maximum visibility for whatever conventional wisdom assured us were the major worries of the moment and the accompanying absolute certainty that these worrisome factors coulaaonauglitoUt1iecomeworH'-resUlchasgefterallybeen-a–nllar— consensus forecast, at each low, that the market could only go lower. It is necessary only to pick up the newspaper to identify the conventional worries of the moment. They can be summarized as (1) Deficit, (2) Recession, and (3) Interest Rates. Simultaneous concern of any magnitude about the first two is, of course, a form of double counting. If the seeds of con- tinuing recession or even depression are in fact present, then, of course, a deficit becomes nothing more or less than appropriate fiscal policy. This is true whether one adheres to the now-largely- discredited fiscalist view or to the conventional monetarist view. The former would hold that fiscal stimulus is a necessary ingredient for recovery. The latter would suggest that, within limits, decreased private credit demand makes it a simple task to finance the deficit while maintaining the proper growth rate for monetary aggregates. If, on the other hand, the recession is close to its end, the convention- al wisdom about the size of the deficit — which, it must be remembered, is projected not actual — may be widely off the mark. Regarding the third factor, high interest rates, it is. of course, fashionable to blame them for about every concievable ill other than this week's snowstoI'III and the Falkland Island war. We are perhaps overly optimistic, but we find ourselves unable to view double-digit interest rates as a totally unmixed disaster. It would be hard to claim that those individuals who have invested almost 200 billion in money funds, where, at minimal risk, they earn record returns in a period of reduced inflation, have not received some economic benefit from current interest-rate levels. We have become used, fortunately or unfortunately over the past three decades, to an economic environment that favors borrowers and spenders. It is not surprising that the transition to one which tends to favor lenders and savers should be painful in many sectors. A value judgment as to which climate is to be preferred, however, is something else again. To many, the above view will be incredibly optimistic, but. we are not sure it. would .be universally considered outrageous, which opinion would be a necessary precursor to the sort of market psychology discussed above. Difficult as it is to gauge these things, we are not sure that concern regarding the three spectres discussed above has yet reached the stage of irrational panic. We can be sure that, when it does, the stock-market bottom will be at hand. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Cumulative Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (4/7182) 838.66 115.71 1104.74 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWT It No statement or eoprC5lon of OPinion or any other moUer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed fo be, direCTly or indirectly, on offer or the ol,c,tallon alan offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentIoned The matter IS presented merely for the convenienCE of the subscrlbef WhIle we believe Ihe sources of aUf Informalion to be rel'oble, we In no way represent or guarantee the ocurocy thereof nor of the statements mllde herein Any actIon to be token by the subscflber should be based on hl own InvestigatIon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, 'nc, 010 corporatIon, and Its off,cers or employees, may now have, or may later tae, positIons or Trades In respect 10 any seCUrllles mentIoned In thIS or any future Issue, C1nd such poslllan may be dlffClenl from ony views now or hereafter e;.precd In HilS or any other luue, Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whIch IS regIstered WIth the SEC os on Investment adVIsor, moy gIve adVIce to ItS tnvestment adVisory and othel cvstomers IndependenTly of any statemellls mode ,n thIS or m ony other 155ue Further mformotlOn on any security mentioned hereIn 1 avmloble on requeu

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STA.TE ROA.D. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE i—- .– The Dow Jonesdndustrii'ilAverage-shoWed April 16, 1982 a.mooest -decline me tiFSt part oftJUs weelt;-……… I – – I through late Thursday afternoon rallying in the last hour to trim most of its losses posted early in the week. Within this framewo'rk continued rotation of leadership in groups – can be observed in a diverse market climate. On the one hand, constructive group relative strength is being seen in Drugs, Insurance, Retailing and Utilities, holding above their September, 1981 lows during the recent March decline. On the other hand, others, such as the Oil-related groups, for example, have penetrated last year's September lows during the March decline, together with the broader-based market averages. Considerable attention continues to be focused on the March 8, 1982 low of 795.47 on the DJIA. Is this 5.97 rise in the DJIA an intermediate rally in a bear market, or is it, in fact, the start of a major bul! market The fol!owing exhibit examines the major bull markets and bear markets that have occurred since the DJIA first attempted to penetrate the 1000 level in the Fall of 1966, some 16 years ago. For purposes of this exercise we are defining bull and bear markets as percentage swings of greater than 20 up and 20 down. EXHIBIT D-a-te 6/26/62 2/9/66 10/7/66 -' -1-2-13/.68 . — – 5/26/70 1/11/73 12/6/74 9/21/76 2/28/78 4/27/81 3/8/82 Average Advance Average Decline DJ Average 535.76 995.15 744.32 – – -985.21 631.16 1051. 70 577.60 1014.79 742.12 1024.05 795.47 59.68 31. 08 Chan 0.00 85. 75 -25.21 – .b32…36 -35.94 66. 63 -45.08 75. 69 -26.87 37.99 -22.32 Length 669 Days Length 319 Days Number Days This Swing – , . 0 913 167 51 R 367 665 481 452 362 798 218 – Three observations become immediately significant when inspecting the five advances and declines that have occurred since 1962. First, bull markets tend to last twice as long as bear markets, both in time and amplitude. Secondly, the average decline of the five bear markets is 31. 08. Thirdly, the average number of trading days for the five declines is 319 days. Therefore, historically, it would not be unprecedented for the recent bear market both in ex- tent (22.32 vs. 31. 08 average) and duration (218 trading days vs. 319 trading days average) to reestablish itself. This possibility continues to exist in an environment, as this letter has repeatedly emphasized, where a major technical constant has been present over the past 16 years – the flat secular trend of the equity market. Point-and-figure analysis of the DJIA gives another perspective of the dilemma which would seem to argue against a major advance developing immediately from these levels. The two-point and fivepoint- charts of the DJIAindicate' upSide(jbjectiveS-inthe-880 area.- Were- the DJIA to rise sharply toward these objectives it seems apparent overhead supply would pre- sent an effective barrier to a further advance until additional reaccumulation, base-building, and lor a test of the March low takes place. This type of pattern is also reflected in a great many individual chart patterns. The above is not able to give a definitive conclusion to the question asked earlier. How- ever, what this seems to indicate is that all the technical evidence is not in. Participation in the current advance for as long as it might last would seem logical. But we must wait for the accumulation of further technical proof to appear to demonstrate the case for the next bull market. RJS rs ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 841. 23 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 116.46 Cumulative Index (4/15/82) 1108.81 No statement or expression of opinion or any other moIler herem contained is, or I.to be deemed to be, dlrt!ctly or Indirectly, on offer or the 50llcilolIOn of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred to or menhoncd The molter 1 preenled merely for the convenience of the ubscrlber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any oehon to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own mveStlgot,on and informaTion Janney Montgomery coll, Inc, as 0 corporohon, and .15 offICers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, poslhons or trades m respect 10 any securities mentioned .n thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSitIOn moy be different from any views now or hereofter expressed m thiS or any other l.Ssue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers mdependently of cny ,!olemena mode In thiS or m any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK E)(CHANQe, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK E)(CH4H13E April 23, 1982 This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, although over-bought short term, continued –toHshow strengtflrallyiilg 7.25 t6 datefrolldts' March 8 low of 795 47. 'Upside objectives in –the 880 area continue to be indicated. We mentioned last week the continuing rotation of leadership in the market since the 1981 September lows were established and then recently tested during the March decline. The list- ing below of the one fiimdred S 8. P base-weighted aggregative groups shows the percentage change ranked best to worst of these groups from September, 1981 to March, 1982. While it can be seen that three-fourths of these S 8. P groups have in fact penetrated the September 1981 lows, there remains a number of groups which have held above their September lows in many cases reflecting substantial gains of 10 or more. Careful analysis of this latter group, given individual groups that reflect above average relative strength on downswings also tend to perform well on the next up cycle, could provide guidance to the investor in identifying market leadership in the next up market. SEPT. HARCH SEPT. HARCH 1981 1992 1981 1982 GROUP NAME LOW LOW . CHANGE ————— ——- ——- ——– ENTERTAINHENT 255.30 302.00 18.292 -G-R-O-U-P–N-A-H-E—– —LO-W— LOW ——- — CHANGE —— TOY MANUFACTURE 12.89 11. 92 -7.525 FOODSUGAR 29.51 34.87 18.163 MACHINE TOOL 13.Ol t 1 .58 -7.901 MULTI-LINE INSU 21.75 25.45 17.012 BANKS OUT NYC 105.1.6 96.19 -8.530 HOSPITAL surPL Y 45.65 3.33 16.84 HOME rURNISHING 25.03 2.8B -8.590 RETAIL STRS-DEP 159.57 184.01 15.316 fERSONAL LOAUS 70.34 64.14 -8.814 SOAPS 139.B7 161.20 15.250 EVERAGES-DISTI 190.48 172.58 -9.397 BEVERAGES-BNEWE 45.24 51.17 13.108 AUTOMOBILES 51.15 45.95 -10.166 fOOD CHAIN STOR 50.01 57.41 1.90 f'OLLUrION CONTR 41.70 37.35 -10.432 BLnrAIRCON431S8 7 -l–2-.-8-APE-R 2 . J 5 …JB–O–..J.'O-.-S40 FOODS-eotU'Os I TE 7S.53 tH.85 J . 340 I INVESTHENT COS 57.07 50.99 -10.671 CONTAINERS-PAPE 193.32 215.55 11.499 I COMPUTER SERVIC 17.66 15.76 -10.79 UTIL-ELEC f'WR C 28.34 31.40 10.798 I RAILROA1 EQUIP 75.52 67.22 -10.991 PROP-LIAB INSUR 133.08 147.15 10.573 I CONTAIN-METAL!G 39.08 34.41 -110950 GAMING COHPANIE 9.97 11.02 10.53! I CHEMIUILS 56.08 49.26 -12.161 RETAIL STORES 73.B7 80.85 9.449 I CONGLOMER(lTES 24.4B 21.50 -12.173 RESTAURANTS 38.63 41. 89 8.439 I IlL! MA1ER-COMP 60.14 59.67 -12.430 ELECTRONIC(MAJO 89.19 96.66 8.375 OIL INfERtlATION 09.44 183.19 -1.S33 RETAIL-GfNL MER 6.09 6.52 7.061 BUI HA1-CEHENT 39.77 34.53 -13.176 GOTIRES&RUBER 121.01 18ol6 LIFE INSURANCE 219.0 232.00 5.909 5.039 F.I'lILROADS 78.80 67.77 -13.998 IlLD MAT-f\OOFtWA 66.24 56.92 -14.070 BANIS-NYC 50.79 53.74 5.809 E'LD HAT-HEAT&f'L 104.46 89.68 -140149 INVESTMENT COS( 6.B4 7019 5.117 CHEMICALS MISC. 13.09 110 15 -14.821 AUTO PARTS–AFTE 15.94 16.60 40141 AEROSPACE 135.86 115.68 -14.854 ELECr-HOUSEHOLD 155.2 1610 87 4.083 UrIL-tI( GAS f I P 203.25 173.04 14.964 PUBLISHING MOBILE HOME 418.00 434.00 62.32 64.67 3.B28 3.771 HOSPITAL MANAGE 3B.07 3.3B OFltJSS EXC IIIH 227.20 193010 -14.946 -15.009 BEVERAGES-SOFT 101.02 104.67 3.613 Tr..UCI\ERS 103.47 87.74 -15.203 AIR TRANSfORT 43.6 44.66 3.236 MACHINE-CaNtHAT 377.50 319.90 -15.258 AUTOHOBILES(-GM 11.92 12.23 TDBAC-CI GARETTE 110.58 111.91 2.601 1.203 IJfIL-NATURAL GA 104.37 88.42 -15.202 FOREST F'f\OnUCTS 20.06 16.98 -15.354 ELECT-INSTr..UMEN 41.60 41.60 0.000 COSMETICS 51.33 42.91 -16.404 DRUGS UTIL-TEL CDS 205.30 205.20 25.85 25.75 -0.049 -0.397 AGRICULT MACHIN 52.22 43.27 -17.139 AUTO TRUC,&PART 41.65 34.44 -17.311 OFF I CEBUS EaUI 948.60 943.60 -0.527 STEEL 47.00 38.67 -17.723 HOTEL MOTEL' 66.00 COMMUNICATION E 21.7 UTILe-ATT) 42.84 .RTAIL-DF.UG 31-.63 65.65 21.55 42.10 30a9 -0.530 OIL-COMPOSITE 258.70 211.50 -0.783 MACHI tiE – I NDUSTR 173.91 142.03 -1.727 ALUMINUH 121. 99 99.26 -2.340 ,1- COAl- BI TUM INDUS 369.00,…. 299.80, -18.245 -18.331 -18.633 -18.753 TEXTILE PF.ODUCT 59.92 58.35 RADIO ElRonCASTE 556.60 541.80 ELECT-SEMI CONO 26.15 25.3B -2.457 -2.659 -2.945 STEEL(-USSTl) TEXTILES-APPAF.E HOMEBUILIING 46.98 46.16 32.30 37.97 35.61 24.89 -19.178 -22.855 -22.941 ELECTRICAL EQUI 376.30 364.90 SHOES 70.06 67.82 OFFSHORE DRILL 135.66 131. 07 -3.030 -3.197 -3.383 OIL PETR-CRUlE 611.00 469.60 OIL DOMESTIC 32.10 246.70 I1ACHItIE-QIL UEL 1953.40 1450.00 -23.142 -23.409 -25.771 DISCOUNT STORES LEISURE TIME L ESTATE-INVES BROKERflGE FIF-tiS AUTO PARTS-OR E PUEtL-N(WSf'AF ERS 17.28 65.04 2.72 26.59 18.89 36.74 16.66 61.37 2.56 24.97 17.67 34.26 -3.588 -5.643 -5.882 -6.093 -6.458 -6.750 METAL MISC CANADIAH OIUGA S&L ASSN HOLD C COf'PER GOLD MINING FERTILIZERS 115.40 23.60 20.72 67.65 300.70 18.97 77.43 15.78 13.31 39.29 174.00 10.77 -32.903 -33.136 -35.763 -41.922 -42.135 -43.226 Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 856.16 S 8. P Composite (1200 p.m.) 117.97 Cumulative Index (4/22/82) 1130.91 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL – No statement or e)(prenlon of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any ecunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscrlber While Ne believe the sources of our Informahon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statement, mode herein Any odlon to be token by lhe ,ubscrlber should be based on hIS own Investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as I corporohon, and lIS officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, pos!tlons or trades In re'pect to ony securilies mentioned In thiS or ony future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereofter e)(pressed In thIS or ony other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVICe to liS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herern IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – April 30. 1982 ,,- ,.— – StUYl-'-ng'-t-o-c–k–m;';–k-e-t-his't'ory–h-a-s-.,-t-o'-u-s-.-a-iw,.,–a-y-s….b..-.e..;''n-.f;'s..,,c-i-n-iiti-ng-b-e-c-a-u-s-e…it-h-a.s,…–al-w–Ii'ys-''''''''''''' constituted a blend of the new and the old. It is. essentially of course. a product of the collective action of human investors subject to the same emotions that have afflicted humans. presumably. since Adam. Yet simple-minded analysis of historical data often comes to grief because peculiar circumstances produce trading patterns that have previously never — or only rarely-occurred. An instance is 1976-1978. a conventional bear market fitting neatly into the major fouryear-cycle pattern which had prevailed back to the inception of the Republic and also into the order of swing magnitude that has existed for the past eight years. However. 1976,,78 also produced a phenomenon that was historically unique. that of secondary issues rising in the face of a sharply falling market. something that a close study of market history revealed had not occurred previously in this century. It is at least conceivable that such a relatively unique pattern is tracing itself out at the present time. 1981-82 has seen what. like 1976-78. was a conventional bear market in the aver- as. running at least through last September. There fOllowed a six-month period of sideways action. an event unusual if not entirely unprecedented. followed by a new low early last month. That decline. however. failed to follow through and has been superseded. at least through mid- week this week. by a burst of market strength. It remains. of course. possible that this consti- tutes only another interruption preceding a test and lor penetration of the March lows. We have felt for some time that this interpretation was appropriate. and we are. at this stage. still not readv to abandon it At the same tim-e. it cannot tie denied that the lack ofMysubStlmtive—I and continuing downside pressure since last September has caused improving technical patterns to manifest themselves in large numbers of stocks. 1976-1978 was dubbed. at the time. the two-tier market. and it is just such a pattern which may once again be emerging — with the components of the two tiers in question unsurprisingly quite different. The tier showing superior strength. with most components having manifested sharp rises since last Fall. consists of a diverse group of issues such as Banks. Insurance Companies. Utilities. Foods. Drugs. etc. Conversely. the bear market over the past year-and-a-half has been led by Energy and Commodity issues. It is not hard to find a common denominator unifying each of the two tiers. The latter are the classic inflation hedges; the former. uniformly. are those issues which may benefit. in one way or another. from the abatement of inflation. It can hadly be accidental that this phenomenon is becoming evident at a time when the Consumer Price Index has just fallen. on a month-to-month basis. for the first time in 17 years. Quite obviously this event is dramatic. It is also. in our opinion. not a fluke. It is. in fact. part of an ongoing pattern of a reduced rate-of-increase in the CPI going back to last October. Adminstration forecasters were accused of wide-eyed optimism at the beginning of the year for suggesting thst 1982 inflation might be under 6. Three months later. something on this order has now become the conSensus forecast. and it is probably far too high. If the average inflation rate of the past six months prevails for the remainder of 1982. the year's rise in the CPI will be ont-heorder.of-2t. -We would suggest that a.rate even closer to zero would not be a bad long-shot bet. Stock prices. and the prices of financial assets in general are. in our view. just beginning their adjustment to this drastic change in economic circumstances. This adjustment. we suspect. is far from over. It is difficult to accumulate long-range data on shifts in market preference between inflation and disinflation issues specifically. However. similar shifts in preference between broad general market areas have generally tended to persist over long cycles, 0 n average four to six .,ears. We may. in other words. be living with the two tiers that have developed in 1981-82 for quite some time. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 846.56 S 8. P Composite (1200 p.m.) 116.42 Cumulative Index (4/29/82) 1132.18 No slalemel'lt to buy or sell or expreUlon of opmion Of any other any seurhy referred Ie. Or ment,oned motter herein The motter IS contol1led pre5ented IS, or IS to be merely for the deemed 10 be, convenience of tdhierec5tulbyconrbeInrdirWechtillye, an we offer or believe the SOll;llotlon of the sources of our an offer Informo- lion to be reliable, we In no way repre5enr or guarantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any o;llOn to be token by the sub5cnber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformallon Janney Montgomery ScolI, Inc, os 0 corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, posrllons or trades In reSpect to ony secUfltl(lS mentioned In thl or any future Issue, and such positron may be different from any Views now or hereafter erpressed In thl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS mV(!stment adVisory and olhel aJstomen Il'Idependently af any statements mode In thiS or m any other ISSue Further Information on any serurrty mentioned herein Il available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVII!IION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( EXCHANOE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGe ,,- It is time, we think, once again to drag out the four-year cycle, a subject which will not be unfamiliar to those who have perused this letter during the past few years. We think an understanding of the cycle is of particular significance at this juncture, since it appears highly likely that a major turning point in the context of this pattern will ultimately be identified as having taken place sometime during the year 1982. We have stated in the past our view that the cycle is definitely not a statistical aberration. A careful study of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average back to its inception will identify 23 such cycles which have occurred since June, 1896. The length of the 22 completed ones has averaged 45 months and, with the exception of two cycles in the 1920's, the only examples of significant non-conformity with the pattern, all cycles have lasted between 3l' and 55 months. We already know a great deal about the 23rd cycle in this series. It appears obvious that it began in March of 1978 at an average monthly price of 756.14 on the Dow. Its end (the cycle, remember, is measured from low to low) cannot have been any earlier than March of this year at which point the average price for the DJIA had retreated to 812.33. It is interesting to note that, if this turns out to be the actual low, the cycle will have justified its popular appellation, turning out, in this instance, to have been exactly four years in length. It appears equally obvious that the advancing phase of this cycle ended in April, 1981 during which month the average price was 1004.86. That advancing phase thus consummed 37 I–t-mont-hs.signifieanan-t-he-similarphases-of–the-threepreviouscyleswhichad,- 1 vanced for 26, 32, and 21 months respectively. In contrast, the four cycles starting in June, 1949 advanced for periods of between 43 and 48 months. If the cycle ended in March, those 37 advancing months will mean it spent 77 of its time in an advancing phase, an interesting figure, since it is exactly the average for the 22 completed cycles in this century. Its declining phase will have involved a 19 drop, based on average prices, a figure slightly on the low side but not out of line with past history. What are t,he chance of the cycle's having been completed with the March low and a new upswing phase of a four-year cycle having begun It is, of course, possible. As we have tried to suggest above, there is absolutely nothing in a March, 1978 – March, 1982 completed cycle which would be out of line with the pattern established by 86 years of past stock market history. However, a few additional points may be suggestive. The first is that, in the post-World-War II period as noted above, cycles have tended toward a somewhat longer length. The one that ended in March, 1978 was exceptionally short in being only 39 months long. However, of the eight cycles beginning in April, 1942 and endiI!g in December, 1974, six have run for 50 months or longer, and two have reached as long' as 55 months. A 55-month cycle in the current instance would take us to October, 1982. Here, another historic pattern is relevant, namely the unlikelihood of a low in the mid- summer months. It would therefore seem probable that, if the low has not already been scored in March, it will occur within the next six weeks or be deferred until Fall with a decent, although failure-destined, intermediate-term rally possibly being posted over the .Summer. – –…..- – —- We tried to suggest last week the sort of market uncertainty now prevalent, with distinct technical improvement having taken place without stfficient accumulation to suggest an imminent major upswing. We are thus unwilling to eliminate the possibility of the March low's,being tested or slightly penetrated during the next few months. Were such testing to occur under the usual climactic conditions of extreme pessimism, it would be well to remember the market's current position in the four-year cycle picture, i. e., in the general area of a major bottom. – AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) S P Composite (12 00 p. m.) Cumulative Index (5/6/82) 867.39 119.34 1153.03 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No talemenl or expre510n ()f opmlon or any other mOiler herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dlredly or indirectly, an offer or the sohcltoltan of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menhoned The moiler IS presented merely for the convenlen!l of the subscriber While oNe believe the sources of our mformoIlon to be reliable, we ,n no way represent or guarantee Ihl! a'ura,y thereof nor of the stotements mude herem Any aClian to bl! taJ..en by the subscriber should be based on hiS own mvestlgatlon ond mformotlon Janney Montgomery SCOII, Inc, as a corporotlO, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, pOSIIIOf\ or Irodes In respect 10 any secunhes menhoned In this or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Iue Janney Montgomery Scoll, tnc , which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers Independenily of any statements mode In thrs or In any other Issue further ,nformat,on on any secuTify mentioned herein IS available on reque&,

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBEFI NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC. MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE Mav 14, 1982 -cvCle sfiiWlien;rr efYVivedanrliI)lF.if,1Rc!;i with the 23rd either having been completed in March of this year or, if not, likely to be completed sometime during 1982. For the benefit of stock market historians and statistics buffs, we are setting out below a table summarizing the relevant statistics for each of the 23 cycles in question. The table is based on average monthly figures. Each cycle, as we noted last week. is measured from low to low. The table makes the assumption, not now known to be true, that the current cycle ended in March. START HIGH LOW AS HIGH AS LOW TOTAL HaS HaS r. 7- 7- OF 7- OF DATE DJIA DATE DJIA DATE DJIA MaS ADV ADV ADV DEC PREV LOW PREV HIGH ——– ——- ——– ——– ——– ——- ——– ——— JUN 1896 30.22 APR 1899 54.90 JAN 1901 49.53 55 34 62 82 -10 0 0 JAN 1901 49.53 JUN 1901 56.53 NOV 1903 32.09 34 5 15 14 -43 164 103 NOV 1903 32.09 JAN 1906 72.32 NOV 1907 40.83 48 26 54 125 -44 65 128 NOV 1907 40.83 NOV 1909 71.95 OCT 1911 56.22 47 24 51 76 -22 127 99 OCT 1911 56.22 DEC 1912 64.50 MAR 1915 58.30 41 14 34 15 -10 138 90 MAR 1915 58.30 NOV 1916 107.89 DEC 1917 70.17 33 20 61 85 -35 104 167 DEC 1917 70.17 OCT 1919 113.91 AUG 1921 66.93 44 22 50 62 -41 120 106 AUG 1921 66.93 MAR 1923 103.87 JUL 1923 89.32 23 19 83 55 14 95 91 JUL 1923 89.32 SEP 1929 364.93 NOV 1929 232.60 76 74 97 309 -36 133 351 NOV 1929 232.60 APR 1930 288,j 7 JUL 1932 46.19 32 5 16 24 -84 260 79 JUL 1932 46.19 FEB 1934 107.26 SEP 1934 90.'54 26 19 73 132 -16 20 37 SEP 1934 90.54 MAR 1937 188.40 APR 1938 112.85 43 30 70 108 -40 196 176 APR 1938 112.85 NOV 1938 151.96 APR 1942 97.79 48 7 15 35 -36 125 81 APR 1942 97.79 JUN 1946 207.32 NOV 1946 168.94 55 50 91 112 -19 87 136 NOV 1946 168.94 JUN 1948 191.05 JUN 1949 165.59 UN-l..9.4..9–l.65 .5.9-.JAN -1 953 SS..4 4SE.l43 161 9.0 SEP 1953 261.90 JUL 1957 514.64 DEC 1957 436.92 31 19 51 43- 51 46 61 13 -13 S4—9c 90 97 -15 173 08 158 -92 1..,5..1.–c 178 DEC 1957 436.92 lEC 1961 728.44 JUN 1962 572.64 54 48 89 67 -21 167 142 JUN 1962 572.64 JAN 1966 985.93 OCT 1966 778.10 52 43 93 72 -21 131 135 OCT 1966 778.10 lEC 1968 968.39 MAY 1970 691.96 43 26 60 24 -29 136 98 HAY 1970 691.96 JAN 1973 1026.82 lEC 1974 596.50 55 32 58 48 -42 89 106 lEC 1974 596.50 SEP 1976 994.37 MAR 1978 756.14 39 21 54 67 -24 86 97 MAR 1978 756.14 APR 1981 1004.86 MAR 1982 812.33 48 37 77 33 -19 127 101 AVERAGE – JUNE 1896-MAR 1978 -AVERAGE – NOVEMBER 1946-MARCH 1978 AVERAGE OCTOBER 1966-MARCH 1978 45 29 61 77 -28 47 35 72 58 -22 46 26 57 47 -31 127 130 104 126 125 100 The table gives, for each cycle, the starting date, the high and the low. The next column shows the total length of the cycle in months. As can be seen. with the exception of the strange pattern of 1921-29. all cycles have been in the range of 31-55 months in length, and the average is just under four years. The next column shows the number of months spent in an advancing phase followed by the per- centage of total cycle months spent advancing. An analysis of these figures suggests that. in line with the secular uptrend which ran from 1942 to the mid-1960's, cycles during that period tended to spend unusually large numbes of months advancing and unusually large percentages of their life span in an upward phase. More recently. as the market has flattened. the tendency toward the cycle's spending about 60 of its life span moving upward has reemerged. The next two columns show the percentage advance and the percentage decline in each cycle. As can be seen, these figures have varied widely, reflecting somewhat higher volatility in the 1930's and before than seems to be the case today. The final two columns show startmg low as percentage of the previous low and cycle high as a percentage of theprevious high. It -can benoted that never during the century have there been more than two cycles that showed consecutively lower lows or lower highs. The recent cycle reversed just such a pattern, starting at 127 of the December, 1974 low. As we noted last week. the assumption of a March-1982 end for the present cycle makes it consistent with past history. Its 37 advancing months (77 of its total length) seems to revert toward the 1950-1960 pattern. However, if the S & P 500 were used to measure the cycle, the high would have been in November, 1980, thus fitting the pattern neatly within the context of the past three. The rather low 33 advance scored on this cycle is consistent with recent history, and the extremely small 19 decline to date probably reflects the small advance. Also, assuming that the ultimate low is close to that of March 1982, the present cycle will be the fourth consecutive instance where both the low and the high were not all that dIfferent from their counterpart figures of the previous cycle. The first cycle which reverses this pattern will strongly suggest that the period of stagnation which has prevailed in equity markets since the mid-1960's is fmally at an end. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 859.97 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 118.35 Cumulative IndeX C5'lS/8Z) No ,tatement or i!xpreulon a opmlon or any other lUjS.S7 motter herem contomed 15, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Ind,redly, on a f f er or tCne so I Ic.lollon f on Ifer to buy or lell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscr,ber While we believe the sources of our mformotlon to be rel,oble, we m no way repreent or guorantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude hefeln Any oc.on to be token by Ihe subSCriber houtd be based on hiS own mvestlgatlon and 'nformatlon Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporal lon, and ,Is offICers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, POSitions or frodes In resped fa any sC(urotles mentioned In thiS or any future IUe, and such pOSlhon may be d,fferenl from any views now or hereafter eTpressed In thn or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS regIstered With the SEC as an mvestment adVisor, may give adVICe 10 .ts mvestmenl odvisory and othel customers mdependently of any satemenls mode In Ih,s r on any olher ISsue Furlher ,nformahon on any security mentioned heretn IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OB!54Q DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER ….MERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE May 21, 1982 4 – T-he ,last-two–iss1iesof-thiscHerhavebeen,'(jevoted-;-as'Our,readm-s-arearertoac–1… discussion 'oftiiitsock market's major four-year cycle pattern'—It is' impossible'- f;' the sprinit of 1982, to discuss this pattern without making a reasonably bullish case. As we pointed out a couple of weeks ago, the current cycle had, at the low for the Dow-Jones Industrial Average scored in March of this year, run for exactly 48 months measured from the previous low in March, 1978. We mdicated at the time that the entire historical experience of this century suggests that the cycle is highly unlikely to run any longer than 55 months, which would mean a major low's being achieved no later than this Fall. In our study of last week, setting out the data for the 23 cycles which had occured in this century, we made the point that the assump- tion of a bottom's already having occured in March would be highly consistent with all of past market history. While we were in the process of delivering this discourse, the market turned down in the first decline of any magnitude that had been posted since the March low. After reaching a peak of 869.20 on May 7, the Dow has now declined 4.2 over nine trading days reaching a closing figure of 832.48 on Thursday. That the advance .should have been hurled back at around the 870 level is, under the circumstances, hardly surprising. Most indices were, at that point, confronting fairly heavy overhead supply from their trading ranges of last Winter. Moreover, as we have been suggesting, the base-building process so far has been insufficient to suggest that a major advance is now immediately in the works. Had the rally continued for much longer and broken out above 895 on the Dow, such an advance would have become an immediate possibility. This is a phase, we think, that the market is not yet ready for, and it is thus logical that the reversal occurred where it did. Nonetheless, in our view, underlying technical improvement continues. Ultimately, with , – tne wisacirri ofU720mndsignt, we WIll K'now whether -the low' of the bear'market which began in November,1980-April, 1981 was scored on March 8, 1982 or at some later date during the Summer or Fall of 1982. We can best describe the market picture at the moment by suggesting that that question has become more or less academic. Back last Fall, with the bear market in full swing and with large numbers of stocks having significantly lower objectives, th2 possibil- ity of significant further downside risk Was one that had to be taken into account. With more and more downside objectives having been reached and with significant base building having taken place (indeed, with upside breakouts from fully formed bases having already taken place in a number of instances), it is possible to suggest that downside exposure, in a well-chosen portfOliO, is, at this point, limited. Whether March 8 was the low remains an unanswered question, and we refuse, at this stage, to hazard a guess on it. The important point is that whatever low is made will not, we think, be all that different from the low of 795.47 chalked up on March 8, which, in turn, means it will not be that different from the present figure' which is a bare 37 points higher. . The technical pattern as it now exists, does not, indeed, suggest a low below that of March, most plausible downside objectives centering around the 820-810 area for the Dow and around 112 for the S & P 500. This should not be taken to be the final word on the subject, however, since it is entirely possible that the short-term top pattern whiCh has formed over the past couple of weeks could further broaden and su;gest somewhat lower targets. The crucial question is what action should be taken when and if such lower prices present themselves. As our readers are aware, this letter has advocated a defensive posture over approxi- mately the 1ast 9-10 months. During that time, the cycle has moved inexorably ahead, and, more recently, tentative technical improvement in individual stocks has.taken place. Market leadership has emerged quite clearly in the disinflation, consumer-non-durable sector of the market, and in this sector a fairlv significant number of potentiallv attractive technical patterns are present. The next bull market mav well not have begun, but it is not too earlv to start thinking about it. It will be especially important to think about it if continued disillusionment with the short-term economic picture should produce a decline of climactic proportions. Were this to occur, almost all the underpinnings for the next advance would be firmly in place. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 834.47 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 114.76 Cumulative Index (5/20/82) 1131. 87 No tolement or eo;prCSSlon of opinion or any other matter herCln contained IS, or 15 to be deemed to be, directly or mdtrectly, on offer or the sollcllollon of on ofh!r to buy or sell any security referred to Or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenienCE of the subscriber While NC believe the sources of aUf information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guorontee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be talen by Ihe subSCriber should be bosed on IllS own investigation and Information Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and III officers or employees, may now nave, or may later tole, POSitionS or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In tnls or any future Issue, and such posilion moy be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS regIStered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIve adVIce to ds ,nvestment advl!wry and athel customers Independently of any statements mode In Ihls or In any other Issue Further information on any scamty mentioned herein IS avolloble on request