Tabell’s Market Letter – November 12, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 12, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - November 12, 1976
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–…….- – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW .JERSEY 08!540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE November 12, 1976 The market slide continued last week as the Dow moved on Wednesday to a new closing low of 924.04. If the new lows have done nothing else, they have, at least, given us a – mea clin surable ing at a 'downt rate of rend-channel.-' approximately ThatLchann two points el ,is.app per day, r ox wi i t m h ate its ly. 65points. wide upper limit curre and ntly ,is at ,anow,dde9- ' 57. I . . Eventual penetra'tion of that channel may well give us an initial clue as to possibilities of a mar- ket reversal. We have drawn attention in the past to the fact that the composition of the Dow seemed to be making the decline appear more serious than it truly was. This is confirmed by the action of our breadth index which, of course, measures the action of all listed stocks. The drop in the Dow to date has been 8.94. The following table lists all DJIA declines of 10 or greater since 1950 and shows the high, the date the decline first reached 8.94 and the number of pOints breadth had dropped on that date. Following this is the date of the ultimate low and the final percentage drop. DAlE DATE DROP bl,IADTH IJA1E II; ———– —- -OF HIGH D..JIA REACHED t;.'!4 DROP .– .,. w .– -.- -01' — -.L.O-W- D..JIA 0 – Of,OP .. ..J11i1 12 JYO 2tl.3tl ..JLJN 2Y 1u1l -23. tl 0JL D 1YO 1 Y7. 4 -1;. Il ..JAN 1Y3 2Y3.7Y ..JUN Y 1Y.) -.),'.37 . ,SEP 14 1Y3 2.4tJ -13.U4 SEP 23 1y,,'o 4tl7.4 OCT 1U 1YJ -2b.4 OCT 11 lYO 43tl.Y -lU.U2 APR 6 lY6 1.0 MAY 24 1Yb -20.12 MAY 2tl 1Y0 46tl.tl1 -10.U3 AUG 2 1'!o 2U.Y OCT 1 lYbh -3,). b7 FEI! 12 lY7 44.tl2 -12.bY ..JUL 12 1Y7 20. 7 I AUG 20 1Y07 -27.tlO OCT 22 1Yb7 41Y.7-J -l.,j A'jG-3 -1 Y'J-6 7tl-.-i-O -SE-P'-2;-1-Yb'Jl\6-.-1l9,NQV—1 Yto'J -bbU. Y2—-1 tl-.-76 JAN b 1960 6tl.47 JAN 2Y 1'J60 -lh.Y7 OCT 2b 1Y60 O6n.O!J -17 .42 DIC 13 1Y61 7,)4. n APk 30 1'62 -2.43 JlIN 20 lY62 03b.70 -27.10 MAY 14 1'0160 Yj'. 62 ..JUN 2b 1'-J6 -36.4b JlIN 2tl 1Y60 tl40.'Y -lU.b4 En '01 140(' y'-), .l MAY 0 lYOll -3b.24 OCT 7 lY6 74' 32 -2b.2l SEP 2 1Y67 Y43. lIH NOV 3 1'0107 -2H.b7 MA', 21 lY6tl eb.1.) -12.b1 DEC 3 1Y6tl b.21 JUN 12 1Y6Y -t;q.10 MAY 20 1Y7U 631.10 -3b.Y4 APR 2tl lY71 YbO.tl2 JUL 2Y 171 -3tl.O\l NOV 23 1\171 7\17.\11 -16.UI! JAN 11 1Y73 OCT 26 1'0173 MAR 13 1\174 NOV 0 1974 JUL 10 1Y70 1001.7U Yb7.U6 b\ll.6b 074. nJ bbl.1l1 rEb 26 1\173 -2tl.OY nov 12 1Y73 -17. -10 t'IAY 21 1\1-14 -36.47 NOV 1Y 1\174 -7.2 AUG 20 1\I-Ib -26.'014 MAR 22 173 flEC 1'0173 OCT 4 1\174 l!EC 0 1 0 74 OCT 1 1\17 Y2b.2U 7tl,.. 31 b4.6 bTl.or. 7b4ol6 -12.03 -2U.14 ;4.4 1 -14.4U -l) .07 SEP 21 1\176 1014.7Y NOV 10 1\176 -11.0\1 NOV 10 ly7b \124.04 -tl.Y4 – -.r– As the table shows, breadth has to date dropped 11.59 points from its September 21 figure. This, interestingly enough, is the smallest drop in breadth accompanying an 8.94 decline on the Dow during the period covered with the single exception of the terminal drop of the 1973-74 bear market. There may be some Significance in this in that, as a glance at the table will show, there is some tendency for drops that do not tum out ultimately to be too se- vere to be preceded by small breadth declines in the early stages. Likewise, there appears to be a tendency for severe declines to start out with very sharp drops in breadth. The most notable exampleis, of'coursethe 1968-70 bear market-in which 'breadth -had plummeted 84 'points by the time the decline on the Dow reached a stage comparable to the present. Although the Dieadth drop at the beginning of the 1973-74 market was not that bad, its final leg in the spri of 1974 produced a 36.47-point drop in breadth. Certainly, there is nothing in the above figures to suggest that the decline is over and, absent new evidence, we feel further lows are a probability. Nonetheless, we think the figures above suggest that the curr ent drop is likely to be of intermediate-term rather than of major significance. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P CompOSite (1200 p.m.) 923.79 98.91 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (11/11/76) 589.79 AWT/jb No stctement or exprenlon of opinion or ony olher matler herein conlCllned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, dlreclly or md,recrly, on offer or Ihe 5011C110110n of on offer to bvy or sell ony security referred 10 or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the converllenc of the subScriber Whde we believe the sources of our information to be relloble, we In no way represenl or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of Ihe statemenls mode herein Any oct,on to be loken by the 1ubscllber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Janney Monlgomery Scali, Inc, as 0 corporation, and lIs officers or e'TIployees, may now hove, or may lOfer foe, POSitionS or Irodes In respect 10 any ieCUnfles menhoned In Ih,s or any fulure Issue, and such p051hon may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed m fhlS or any olher Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS reglslered wllh Ihe SEC 05 on Investment adVisor, may gIve adVice 10 lIs mveslmenl adVISOry and olhel roMomers tndependently of cny slotements mode tn Ihl5 or tn any other ISue further tnformotlon on any security mentioned herein .s available on request

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