TABELL'S MARKET LETTER — 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE June 4, 1976 It should come as news to no one that 1976 is a Presidential election year, and we have .,…men,tlOl'leJjprgvJouqJy,inthiss p1ce thaLthisfa cthnuJdbe,ta ken. into ,account-in ,acmacket f-or-eca st-. -W-e ….- have, in the past, tabulated the election-year pattern, and the table below is an update of that study complete through May of 1976. It shows, for each year, the President elected and his party, followed by the average price for each month, expressed as a percentage of the previous December's close (I.e., 110 means the market was up 10, and 90 means it was down 10). Year President Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1900 McKinley R 101 103 104 lOS 100 98 98 99 97 100 108 114 1904 Roosevelt R 102 99 99 101 99 99 103 107 112 118 125 126 1908 Taft R lOS 100 lOS 111 117 117 123 126 125 126 134 138 1912 Wilson D 100 99 102 106 lOS lOS 106 109 109 109 108 103 1916 Wilson D 99 98 97 96 98 99 98 99 102 lOS 107 103 1920 Harding R 99 91 97 96 91 89 89 86 89 89 85 77 1924 Coolidge R 103 104 102 100 99 101 101 113 112 110 115 119 1928 Hoover R 99 98 103 110 113 108 108 112 120 123 131 132 1932 Roosevelt D 103 101 102 76 66 59 63 89 102 88 87 82 1936 Roosevelt D 102 108 112 112 104 108 116 118 120 126 130 128 1940 Roosevelt D 99 98 97 98 85 76 80 82 86 87 88 85 1944 Roosevelt D 102 101 105 101 105 109 112 110 108 111 110 115 1948 Truman D 97 92 94 101 106 110 108 104 103 106 100 99 1952 Eisenhower R 102 100 100 100 100 102 105 106 104 104 105 109 1956 Eisenhower 1-960-Kennedy R 97 ,98 104 lOS 103 102 107 106 103 102 100 102 8—99….,…,98-92-939296-93-94-9-29,1.,—93-97– 1964 Johnson D 102 103 105 107 109 108 III 110 III 113 115 112 1968 Nixon R 98 94 92 99 101 104 104 101 lOS 108 109 110 1972 Nixon 1976 R 102 103 106 108 107 106 104 108 107 106 112 115 109 114 116 116 116 Incumbent party did not control Congress. Incumbent party not re-elected. The nineteen completed years show an approximate normal distribution. Eleven are bull markets, three (I920, 1932 and 1940) are distinct bear-market years, and in five years the trend was flat. There a ppears to be a tendency toward a flat trend or moderate wea knes s in the first ha If. Eleven of the nineteen years showed little market change through June. Indeed, only in the three years which evolved into bear markets was the first half action predominantly on the downside. It is worthy of note that a downward bias tends to occur on two sorts of occasions, first, when the incumbent President loses the election,and, second, when the incumbent party does not control Congress. How- ever, 1972 was an exception to this latter rule and 1976, based on action to date, may well be, also. Indeed, it is interesting to note that 1976, through May, has produced the strongest uptrend. The first statistic suggests that the market may be a good forecaster of election returns. In none of the six years when the incumbent lost the election was the market up more than 5 in the first half. President Ford may thus be able to rcad some comfort into the market strength shown to date. The most consistent fact about election year markets, though, is a deftmte tendency toward a strong second half. Indeed, as the table shows, in 16 of the 19 completed years, the average – – 'price'feir December was'nigher- than the-averagepricE'- for June .Evenintwoofth-e-threebear 'matkets – 1932 and 1940, the market rallied in the second half from the June lows. In 1912 the June-December difference was miniscule, and the market spent most of the second half in hlgher territory. Only in 1920 and 1948 was there a distinct decline from June to December. Fitting all this into the 1976 pattern, we have argued in the past the case for anticipating short-term market weakness, but we have asserted that we expect it to be relatlvely minor in scope. The election-year pattern that has existed in the past would be entirely consistent wlth a minor decline from now into the early summer, followed by a basing-out process and higher prices later on in the year. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 969.47 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Composlte (I200 p.m.) 99.63 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (6/3/76) 486.87 AWT/jb No statement Of expression of apullon or ony other matter herein contOlned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the sol,cltotlon of ,on offer to buy or sell any secvnty referred 10 or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the corwerlence of the subscriber While Ne believe the sources of our Informo- tlon to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the occuracy thereof nor of the stotements mude herem Any action to be faken by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own mllestlgahon and information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and ITS officers or employees, may now hove, or may lOfer toke, poltlons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thIS or ony future Issue, and such pOSition moy be different from any VieNS now or hereafter eo.press(!d In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its mvestment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mcnhoned herein IS available on request

,————————————————————————— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08'1540 DIVISION OF MEAfo!lER NEW YORI STOCI( EXCNANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – ., June 11, 1976 Stock market commentators, ourselves included, have a well-known propensity for coming I.,… …..,I-..'–upwith..tlJ.e…Y'rong an.w,erserl1a.Pljan.eve!lless.,forgb'C.e.abJe..in,hg..vgr ,is-thatptllskintl)fL!ITtong questions. We suspect our own guilt in this rega'rd insofar as the last few -issues of this letter are co- cerned and would like herewith to make some attempt at expatiation. Much of our recent comment in this space has concerned itself with the March-May trading range in the major averages, the subsequent downside breakout from that range and the suggestion that this breakout may be a harbinger of lower prices over the intermediate term. This sort of discussion is not, of rourse, totally useless, since it is both necessary and desirable in portfolio management to operate wlthln the framework of a near-term hypothesis. Yet lt totally fails to address itself to what should be the most basic and cruclal question facing the stock market analyst in the mid-1970's — the question of whether the flat secular trend which has imprisoned the stock market for more than a decade ha s come Or is about to come to a n end. We drew attention to thls phenomenon 5 1/2 years ago when, on January IS, 1971, we said in this space, the equity market from 1942 until 1966 was buoyed by a secular uptrend advancing at the rate of about 9 a year on the Dow. Sure, there were bull markets and bear markets within the frame- work of that uptrend, but the bull markets were long and dynamic and the bear markets, although painful, short and quickly recovered. There is real evidence, at the moment, however, that the secular uptrend is no longer with us. Indeed, computed from 1966, the slope of the DJIA has been virtually zero. The most statistically accurate description of the market on average for the past five years is that It is a wide, flat trading channel. As everyone is by now aware, the intervening 5 1/2 years have conformed precisely to this pattern. The question of continuance or noncontinuance of the flat trend is to our mind absolutely crucial, for, as long as it continues, market timing and the shifting of portfolios between stocks and –ecashw.ilLbe.a!l.absoluteneces.sityiLab9y.e-ay.eageiml.esJmenCr.llsJ,ltsAr.e,obe''ttil.ined……li,o'1lnwt''1hec,.. ,I…… other hand, the flat secular trend shifts to the sort of uptrend which characterized the 1940's; 1950's and 1960's, timing will become far less crucial,and stock selection, as was the case ten to thirty years ago, will become the more Important component in the Investment equation. There is, qUlte obviously, no clear evidence at the moment of an.end to the flat secular trend. Indeed, the market's Inability to penetrate the 1000 level a few months ago fits squarely into the pattern. Ironically, however, the prospect of near-term weakness places the market in a stronger position to break out of the trading channel than would otherwise have been the case. A move significantly above 1000 early this year would have taken place in the obviously mature stages of a bull market leg, and would thus have had to be regarded with some scepticism.On the other hand, if the market now, after an intermediate-term decline or consolidation, turns around and rebases, embarking on another upleg Significantly above the 1000 level, we would have a fairly strong harbinger that a new investment era had, indeed, arrived. Such a move if, as and when it takes place, would be the third upward leg in a bull market which began in December, 1974, and,according to the tenets of a number of cyclical theories, the presence of three rather than two upward legs denotes a move in conformity with a primary upward trend. It is also possible to advance some fairly solid fundamental arguments that a new era may be in the offing. The period between 1949 and 1974 can be viewed in one sense as a complete cycle in terms of multiples which investors were willing to place on corporate earning power. That cycle began with the Dow selling at seven times earnings in the summer of 1949 and advanced to a point where it sold for 24.2 times earnings at the end of 1961. The multiple, in tum, steadily deteriorated to the third quarter of 1974, to the point \\here Sl.OO of DJIA earning power could be purchased for S6.20. Some scholars have adduced evidence that this sort of long-term cycle is a continUing one,and,lf this is the case, the prospect Is for a decade-Iong.risein baSIC multiples which. could not fail to carry.the.Dow far, farbove the,IOOO mark. An ultimate return to the 24-times earnings level of 1961, coupled with a 100 rise in current earning power, ..- would bring the Dow close to 5000. This Is not being offered as a forecast,but we do not, on the other hand, see why it should be viewed as fantasy. It would merely require the repetition of two phenomena, both of which have occurred during the investment lifetime of most readers of thiS letter. It is, thus, basically the question of the end of the lO-year, secular stagnation With which market forecasting should now be primarily concerned. It is a question on which we shall continue to comment in the future. Dow-Jones Industnals (1200 p.m.) S & P CompOSite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (6/10/76) AWT/jb 969.06 99.99 581.68 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No Ilalement or expressIon of oplnson or ony other motter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdHcc1ly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to bvy or sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The moiler 15 presented merely for the conver.cncr of the subSCriber While -He betleve the sources of our Informa tlon to be reliable, we 10 no way represent or guarantee Ihe accurocy thereof nor of Ihe statements mude herem Any action 10 be token by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own investigation and information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, moy now hove, or moy lotcr toke, polIons Ot trode! In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such pOSitIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter expessed In thl' or any other luue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give ad …. lce to Its Investment adVISOry (md othel (ustomers Independently of any latements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any securoty mentioned herein IS o….qiloble on request

– — — — — ———————– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION 01 MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – June 18, 1976 It,hasbeen.remarked-by.someA!lonym)llsdyosgep.tig,in9iJd.';lat.,th9Jthe.-t09k.Jll.a p ket invariably does that which inconveniences the greatest number of investors. Last week's market action may well provide a perfect example of that tendency. In a word, the market went up. Why, the reader may well ask, should this normally happy state of events be re- garded as discomforting The answer lies in the fact that the stalling of the Dow at or around the 1000 level ever since March indicates that a large supply of stock was brought forth at that level. Presumably, at this moment, those who sold that stock are discommoded somewhat by last week's strength. The strength also poses some difficulty for the market analyst insofar as placing the stock market picture in long-range perspective is concerned. In our letter of three weeks ago, we outlined what we then thought were three salient pOints regarding future market action. These points were I) that a conventional reading of technical indicators suggested that lower prices might be in the offing, 2) that the high degree of visability of the so-called line formation just under 1000 suggested a fair degree of probability that the downside breakout from that formation might be false, and 3) that even if a decline did ensue, its magnitude was unlikely to be serious enough to force an alteration of strategy on the part of the long-range investor. The first comment that needs to be made is that this basic thinking is not yet al- tered by last week's market strength. In conventional terms, the rally from the closing low of 1—-Ql.'., ''L-09-0Il–June..canw-ed…as-not-hiRg—more-tha n.a—mov-6—i-nto4heavy–,s upply-a t-a r-eu ndl….,…,….–I the 1000-1010 level that has stalled the market on the upside so many times since last spring. If this conventional wisdom is to hold, the market rally should shortly peter out, and prices should resume the downward course on which they were apparently embarked two weeks ago. The strength, however, has, obviously, increased the probability of the second scenario in the above paragraph, the possibility that the recent downSide breakout was a false one and that the market wi 11 shortly resume its upward course. The conventional reading was the more pleasant one as far as the market analyst is concerned. A relatively moderate mtermediate-term decline would provide him with an oppor- tunity to advise a highly aggressive attitude toward equities and provide a healthy buying opportunity for any cash reserves that might exist. The possibility of resumption of the uptrend, however, creates problems for a number of reasons. First of all, upside objectives, as far as any further upmove is concerned, are somewhat limited. The base formed in the fall of 1975 has always suggested a target somewhere around the 1065 area and that target remains in effect, buttressed by a reading of the potential base formation which has been pieced together since March. That figure is not all that far above current levels so as to cause undue elation at the prospect. Were the market to move ahead to around the 1065 level, of course, an upside penetration of the 12-year trading range would have been achieved, but not to such a degree that it could be called decisive. Presumably, at that point a new pattern would have to form, thus postponing the forecaster's ability to make a long-range assessment of the market picture. '- – '- – – – o- – — — —— – – –.–.-..- – – – ——- . –.– As we pOinted out three weeks ago, however, all this poses a great many mOre — problems for the forecaster than it does for the investment manager. We suggested then that the overall outlook basically called for no change in strategy on the part of the long-range in- vestor and that, even though the possibility of lower prices existed, a continued positive attitude toward equities appeared warranted. That basic view is unchanged and, indeed, even reinforced by the week's strength. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P CompOSite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (6/17/76) AWT/jb 1002.37 103.71 600.80 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or expreulon of opmlon or any other motter herem Contained IS, or I! 10 be deemed to be, directly or ,ndlrectly, on offer or the SOllCltotlon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to Or menhoned The moiler IS presented merely for the converolenCt of the subSCriber WhIle we believe the sources of our mformotlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accurac.y thereof nor of the statements mode herem Any acllOn to be token by Ihe subSCriber should be based on h,s own investIgation and mformotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. as a corporatton, and lIs offICers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pOSitions or trades tn respect to any securtttes menttoned In thts Of any future tssue, and such posttton may be dtfferent from any Vtews now or hereafter expressed tn thtS or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, tnc , which tS rt'.9lstered wtth the SEC as an mvestment odvuor, may gtve advtce to Its Investment adVisory and olhel customers independently of any statements mode In thts or tn any other tssue Further Informotton on any securtty mentIOned herein IS avotloble on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE June 25, 1976 A few years back, Broadway enjoyed a rather charming musical comedy entitled How Now, Dow Jones. Like most such efforts, the plot was eminently forgettable, and we have, indeed, -forgotten,most. ofit .-As .we,r,ecall, .how.ever,the.story'couldnohcome to .its ,happyconsummation ,wlth …,.. the heroine finally marrymg the hero, until such time as the Dow crossed 1000. We bring thls'up at this point Simply because the Dow's current flirtation with 1000, which has been going on now since February, certainly has elements of comedy, although, mdeed, not a very good one. The by-now- familiar game continued again last week wIth the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on lv'bnday once more posting a closing high above 1000 at 1007.45 and once more being thrown back as the index moved down to a 996.56 close on Wednesday. As of this writing, the market has recovered, and yet another attempt at a new high is being made. The following table documents the swings that have taken place on the successive penetrations of the,1000 level since the end of February of thIS year. We are counting February 25, wIth its closing hIgh of 994.57, as part of the scenario, smce the average did, indeed, post an mtraday peak above 1000 for three days centering around that period. The table shows the rally peak and the low reached on the subsequent decline for the eight tImes the Dow has moved above 1000 this year and, for comparison, a Iso shows the action of the S & P 500 on the same days. The final column, a nd the one we think perhaps most interesting I shows the comparative action of our Cumulative Index, which effectively documents the action of all stocks llsted on the New York Stock Exchange. DATE DJIA S & P 500 CUM. INDEX 2/25/76 3/4/76 3/11/76 994.57 970.64 1003.31 102.03 98.92 101.89 623.77 616.05 620.75 3/15/76 974.50 99.80 608.27 3/24/76 1———4/2/T6 1009.71 99T7'58 103.42 fOrZ5 618.03 6U9'(PI——- 4/5/76 1004.09 103.51 615.37 4/9/76 4/Z1/76 968.28 1011.02 100.35 103.32 593.90 605.93 5/5/76 986.46 100.88 594.96 5/10/76 1007.48 103.10 605.79 6/7/76 958.09 98.63 577.52 6/21/76 1007.45 104.28 604.95 Those of bullish persuasion may find some comfort m the actIOn of the S & p 500, noting the fact that, at Monday's high, it had moved ahead Into new high territory, something the Dow had been unable to accomplish. There are fairly solid grounds for thIS, since markets m the past where the S & P outperformed the Dow have generally been good ones. However, as we stated above, we think the most interesting statistic in the table IS the CumulatJve Index. As the table very clearly shows, that index made its high back in February and has not equaled It smce. Even more mterestlng is the fact that each of the seven successive peaks m the Dow has seen a lower peak m the CumulatIve Index. LIkeWise, four of the six declines saw new lows posted by the Cumulative Index. Quite clearly, the average stock has been underperformmg the market smce February . What, it may well be asked, does this all mean It IS, first of all, nothmg more than a description of a state of affairs, the fact that it has been a great deal harder to make money in the stock market smce February than the averages woufd indicate. It does not say that It was not possible, or that February-June .was apenod where judicious stock selection would not have earned abovaverage returns. The portent for the future 15, at thIS moment, less certa in. There have been fa irly pro- tracted periods In the past where the Cumulative Index and similar Indices have underperformed the market and then, ultImately, caught up and moved ahead to new peaks. There have certainly been m- stances simIlar to the current one where the Dow and the other averages have merrIly sailed ahead to new hIghs whIle the Cumulative Index failed to follow. Ultlmately, however, continued weakness In the vast bulk of stocks, when It has gone on long enough, has tended to draw the averages down along with It. What we are saying, in effect, is that mspectlOn of the action of the Cumulatlve Index and other measurements of general market tone will be a great deal more valuable In formulating a forecast than recounting the Dow's dalliance with a four-flgure level. Dow-Tones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 1003.77 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 103.96 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (6/24/76) 603.97 AWT/jb No statement or expreSIon of OPiniOn or any other matter herein contained IS, or 1 to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell ony security referred 10 or mentioned The molter IS presenled merely for the converlence of the subSCriber Whole we believe the sources of our mforma- 'Ion to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any odlon to be token by the subscflber shovld be based on hIS own mvestlgotlon ond Informallon Janney Montgomery Seoll, Inc, as a corporation, and .ts officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, POltlOns or trades m resped to any secUrities mentIOned In thiS or any future .ssue, ond such pOSllion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS ar any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on mvestment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment adVISory and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security menlloned herein IS available on request