Viewing Month: March 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 05, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 05, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 05, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OBS40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 5, 1976 It is now almost three years since we published a series of letters which attempted to assume a somewhat critical stance toward the one-decis ion school of investment and its emphasis ;;—–.;; . .onso-called-growth stocks. Since'that-time;,,-agood,deal 'of water has'passed -over the;dam-;– part of this taking the form of the 1973-74 bear market which effectively washed out the prices of many of the former growth favorites, in some cases to levels as much as 80 below their 1973 highs. That washout was sufficiently effective so that the majority of these Issues are today well below those highs despite the fact that the averages last month were closing in on their 1973 peaks. However, that bear market is now past history, and it should come as no news to anyone that we have, over the past 14 months, enjoyed a much-improved market climate. It is perhaps worthwhile, then, to examine a representative list of growth stocks in an attempt to rate their performance as investment vehicles during the bull market, more particularly during the consolidation which began last July following the bull market's first phase and on that bull market's second up-leg which began last fall. The following table presents some relevant statistics concerning 13 growth stocks showing, in each instance, their summer-1975 highs, their lows of last fall and their 1976 higt-sattained to date, together with a recent price. Percentage changes between the various points are also given. Lest we be accused of 20/20 hindsight in stock selection, it should be noted that the list was chosen and published in this space two years ago as a typical list of stocks in the institutional growth favorite category . Change July Fall Summer Fall 1975 1975 1976 1975- 1975- High .- -3v0ll-Pr9.sI-Jt!r . . — t;;;;;; -.I. Burroughs Corp llO Low Hiqh 34 -33 .34 76 -3-1-108 1976 Hi 1976 Hi Recent , -14 29 – ——2 '–42 38 102 -..– Coca Cola Co 93 60 -35 95 2 58 86 Disney Walt Prod 53 38 -28 63 19 66 58 Eastman Kodak Co 106 87 -18 ll7 10 34 107 IBM 227 176 -22 264 16 50 257 International Flavor Fragrance 34 22 -35 28 -18 27 24 Johnson & Johnson 100 78 -22 96 – 4 23 83 McDonalds Corp 58 42 -28 65 12 55 61 Polaroid Corp 43 28 -35 42 – 2 50 38 Proctor & Ga mble 99 81 -18 97 – 2 20 83 Sears Roebuck Co 74 57 -23 73 – I 28 72 Xerox 88 46 -48 68 -23 48 63 Avg -29 – 1 40 DJIA 885 818 – 8 996 13 22 It has been remarked somewhere that if the penalty for conventional wisdom in bear mar- kets is disaster, in bull markets it is mediocrity. Such, apparently, has been the case in this instance. Out of the 13 issues, 8 were, at last month's highs, below their highs of the previous July despite the fact that the Dow was some llO points or 13 above that peak. The average percentage change produced by an equal investment in each stock over the period would be something just under -1. A great partclthiSlnferior performance–;'as -the-tableshows, results from the'stocks' action during last fall, a period in which the majority of listed stocks underwent nothing more than a mild consolidation and during which period the Dow declined only 8 from high to low. Not one of the growth issues managed to decline any less than twice as much as the Dow and some dropped off 4 to 5 times as much. Conversely, as the next-to-last column of the table shows, they have outperformed the aver- ages since last fall and done so to an impressive degree. This may argue that the astute investor mIght have done well in selecting them recently as possible trading vehicles. Their inferior cycle-to-cycle performance as measured by their action between last July and recent peaks, however, suggests that the process of unwinding the growth-stock concept IS still underway and may continue well on into the future, not necessarily in the form of the 1973-74 type bloodbath, but in the form of a protracted period of relatively inferior Investment performance. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 972.29 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 98.84 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (3/4/76) 616.06 AWT/jb No statement or expreslon of opinion or any other matter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the converlence of the subscriber While oNe believe the sources of our Information to be relmble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any action fa be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investlgotlon and Information Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a corporation, and lIS offICers or employees, may now have, or may loter lake, positions or trades In respect to any SeCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSUe, and such POltlon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed III thl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 1 registered With the SEC a on Investment odvlsor, moy give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any tatements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further .nformatlon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 12, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 12, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 12, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEHleR NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE March 12, 1976 We are commenCing this week a series of letters dealing with the technical patterns ,f..'!2nd iviQ comments ual are Jndstri based s oaLleglry.oou.npatencd.h,rn)1i,c,!ajl.9fr.ai.ctsoures,s.wanithCtfnurttllhoer.ei.,ngfroourPJalt.'Ai'!;nNOei1ecijlce!!;ivi1d0uaSii'yisauells..I.s, ,- available upon request. -.. AEROSPACE. This group was one of the leaders in the first phase of the bull market during the early months of 1975 with most issues breaking out of major long-range accumulation patterns. During the consolidation in the latter half of 1975, relative strength became subpar and the stocks, generally, declined to prior support levels. Major issues can be considered for purchase on weakness and should be watched for upside breakouts signaling resumption of the major uptrends, these upside breakout pOints being 30 for Boeing (27), 50 for General Dynamics (49) and 63 for United Technologies Corporation (58).' AIRLINES. This group has recently begun to show above average relative action after moving sideways throughout most of the early bull market, and many issues are nearing upside breakout paints which would suggest them as prime recovery candidates. Northwest Airlines (32) has al- ready broken into a major uptrend with a long-term objective of 42-70 and UAL (26) is reasonably close to a major breakout at 30. Many of the other issues in the group have reasonably heavy overhead supply which may require further reaccumulation prior to their moving into positive up- trends. ALUMINUM. To date this group has lagged the performance of other basic-industry, cyclical stocks, but recent upside breakouts by three of the four major companies probably presage above- average relative action. Alcan (28) has an objective of 34-39, Kaiser (32) an upside,target of 52- – –74 and Reynolds'Metals (38) One of 48-82. Aluminum Co.- of America (51) isclbse to a major up- side breakout at 54. AUTOMOBILES. This group is typical of the heavy-industry companies which has provided leadership for the present bull market. General Motors (70) remains in a major uptrend with a price target of 78 which COincides with heavy overhead supply from 1971-73 highs. Ford (57) has recently moved into a major uptrend with a price target in the low 70's. Chrysler (20) has reached a short-term upside objective but could move higher long term. AUTOMOBILE PARTS. This area has demonstrated above-average relative action over the past year and, although in a few cases, such as Dana (23), short-term objectives are beginning to be reached, most issues can continue to be held. Eaton Corporation (25) continues to have a higher long-term objective. BUILDING MATERIALS. Patterns for this group vary depending on the particular area of the in- dividual company's business. Cement stocks generally have below-average patterns whereas companies in the plumbing and heating area have shown above-average relative strength. How- ever, in some cases, such as Crane (70), upside targets are being reached. Most other issues in the group are in minor uptrends ,and Johns Manville (31) has an attractive long-term pattern with upside objectives of 34-52. CHEMICALS. Major issues in this area have been market leaders over the past year, and, despite their having attained levels sub.stantially above their 1974-75 lows, most stocks possess s(7o5m) e. what higher upside price. ta- rgets, su-ch .as.1.26-145 for MonsantoJ!)ar1dJlr ,- — .. Union Ca, rbide COAL. These issues have recently been in a consolidation phase after moving substantially higher in the first half of 1975. Moderately higher objectives are readable in some cases, but, technically, most issues must be rated as holds rather than new purchase candidates. CONGLOMERATES. These issues took what must be counted among the more severe batterings of the 1968-70 bear market. Since that time, many have progressed nicely through reaccumulation phases and have either broken into long-range uptrends or are close to dOing so. Gulf and Western (26) has an upside price objective of 38-50, Loews (31) a target of 42 and Tenneco (27) oneof43. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 995.59 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 101.63 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (3/11/76) 620.75 AWT/jb No statement or expreulon of opinion or any other motter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlrlctly, on offer or the sollcltotlon 01 on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the converlenC6 of the subSCriber While we believe th!! SOUfO'!S of our Informotlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy Ihereof nor of the statements mode herein Any oct,on to be toen by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS awn mvestlgallon and Information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, os 0 corpora'Ion, and lIs offICers or employees, 1'T'0y now have. or may later toke. positions or trades m respect to ony SeCUrities mentioned m Ihls or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. which IS registered wllh the SEC as on mvestment adVisor, may give odvlce to lIs Investment adVisory and othe. customers mdependently of any statements mode m thiS or 1M any other Issue further information on any security mentioned herein IS ovolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 19, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 19, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 19, 1976
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———————————————————————————————————————–, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW .JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 19, 1976 For tbeth-i-r.d..-ti-I11i-l1-,r!-'c–H-nt-wee k s ,.t h – D- O Y…'–Jo–n es) n dust ria i Average rallied – —o–'– at mid-week from .. around the low 970's. This area is now sufficiently tested so that downsidepen-etratiofi;- if it were to – —- occur, would have some significance and would probably portend an extended pertod of attempted rebasing in the 950-970 range. In turn, were 950 ultimately to be penetrated on the downside, significantly lower levels could be foreseen. It should, however, be pointed out that the occurrence of such a correction, which would have to be placed in the intermediate-term category, this early in the cycle would be an un- usual one, and we would regard the eventual upside penetration of the 970-1000 range which has con- tained the Dow for the past few weeks as the more likely eventuality. We are continuing this week our review of industrial groups and stocks. All comments are based solely on technical factors and further information on individual issues is available upon request. CONTAINERS-METAL AND GLASS. Both American Can (34) and Continental Can (28) have impressive base patterns, although major trend upside breakouts have not yet been achieved. The stocks could be considered for purchase on weakness. COPPERS. Action in this group has been subpar throughout most of 1975 but, on a short-term baSiS, relative strength has picked up. Newmont Mining (29) has just moved into a major uptrend with an initial objective of 40 and Phelps Dodge (44), although faced with heavy overhead supply, could move higher. DISTILLERS. Action within the group has varied. Both Heublein (52) and National Distillers (25) have moved up sharply in recent months. The former, however, is approaching most readable upside objectives, while the latter suggests higher upside targets with a long-term objective of 40. Seagrams (30), by con- trast, has lagged and a period of protracted rebasing in the low 30's appears to be a probability. DRUGS. As a group these issues have underperformed the market since the beginning of 1975 suggest- ing, perhaps, that price/earnings ratios are still more than adequate. Most issues are currently priced .just below.mils.silLe-'Lyad-2!lPRly from theis 1972-74 tops,and,although some rebasing has taken place, we would regard an uPsidebrea-kotthissU;g;;s';;niikeindeedwm-e-issues-, despite genera-l – market strength, appear to possess a fairly high degree of downside vulnerability. With a few exceptions we would be inclined to avoid the group. ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. Patterns within the group vary. General Electric (52), in a short-term trad- ing range, has noved back to just above strong support at the 50-45 area. Heavy overhead supply at 60- 70 may slow any upside action, however. Westinghouse (16), a severe victim of the 1973-74 bear market, has begun its long-term rebasing process,and probably more work will be needed in the broad 10-20 range. Switchgear companies generally have impressive base formations but in most cases are just under overhead supply from their previous tops,and upside action may be slowed somewhat. Appliance companies have generally attractive technical patterns with above-average relative strength. Maytag (36), Sunbeam (26) and Whirlpool (31) all have higher readable upside objectives. ELECTRONICS. This is another group with mixed patterns, but with a few exceptions most issues are close to overhead supply soing back to the late 1960's. Ability to reach 30 would suggest considerably higher levels for Beckman Instruments (25). Recent ability of Texas Instruments (118) to reach the 120 level was impressive, and conslderably higher upside objectives appear to be readable for the stock despite its generous price relative to the general market. FINANCE COMPANIES. Substantial potential bases exist but there is no evidence, from a relative- strength point of view, that an immediate upside breakout will be attempted. Breakout pOints would be 38 for C.LT. Financial (33) and 33 for Walter E. Heller International (26). FOODS. Despite the relatively low volatility of this group, many issues have managed to outperform the market on both a short and long range basis. Action of meat packers has been particularly outstanding, , and Esmark (39), wh-ile approaching short-range objectives, still has.muchhigher long-termtargets. I I Borden's (29), although close to overhead supply, has impressive long-range portential as does CPC – – International (44), despite its recent backing and filling in the 40-50 range. Some issues have major up- side breakouts just above current levels such as 38 for Campbell Soup (32), 30 for Del Monte (24), 32 for General Foods (29) and 48 for Kraftco (43). FOREST PRODUCTS. Most issues in this group appear attractive technically. Boise Cascade (28) has an upside objective of 52, Georgia Pacific (54) one of 60-80 and Weyerhauser (45) one of 63. In most cases there is support just under current levels. GOLD. A few issues in this group have moved into short-term uptrends which would carry them into heavy overhead supply from past peaks. They would be appropriately consldered as sales on strength. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 980.79 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 100.71 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (3/18/76) 610.63 AWT/jb No statement or epresslon of OpinIOn or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, drrectly or Indirectly. an offer or the soliCItatIon of an offef to bl,lY or sell any seevrlty referred 10 or mentIOned The matter IS presented merely for the convef'lenc of the l,Ibscrrber While .ve bel,eve the 50l,lrces of oor Informa tlon to be relIable, we In no way represent or gl,larontee the OCCl,lrocy thereof nor of the statements mode herem. Any octlon to be taken by the l,Ibscrtber shol,lld be bo,ed on hiS own Inveshgat,on and InformatlO'l Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, os 0 corporation ond its officers or employees moy now hove, or may later loke, polhon or trades In respect 10 any SeCl,Ifltres mentioned In Ihls or any fl,ltore ISSl,le, and sl,Ich pOSitron may be different from ony views now or hereafter expressed In Ihu or any other ISSl,le Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In Ih.s or In any other ISSl,Ie Fl,Irther Informotlon on any seC\Jrlty mentioned herem IS avaIlable on reql,lest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 26, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08S40 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – March 26, 1976 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average again rallied midweek penetrating on the upside the 970- conJ'lrrrtihis1000 range which has contained the Dow for the past few weeks. The ability of the advance/decline . breacfthfiidex to move woUld'i-eep -inta-d the second leg-of'the 'oulCiilarketWhlCh coritfnuerno -' . ' indicate 1030-1080. We continue this week our review of industrial groups and stocks. All comments are based solely on technical factors and further information on individual issues is available on request. HOTEL-MOTEL. Relative action in this group has been sharply above average. In most cases higher objectives are readable and the stocks may be held or bought on weakness. Hilton Hotel (18) and Holiday Inn (17) both appear attractive from a technical point of view. INSURANCE. The rotation of leadership apparent in this market phase has signaled the insurance group as it appears to be in a position to participate on the upside. Recent breakouts of Continental Corp. (49) and Travelers Insurance (31) both indicating higher levels should be noted. Also, ability of Aetna Life (27) to reach 30 and NLT Corp. (20) to reach 22 would break these stocks out of base patterns on the upside also indicating higher levels. With improved relative strength this \grouP'Ppears to be an interesting buy- ing opportunity at current levels. MACHINERY-AGRICULTURE. Deere & Co. (13) by far the best acting in this group indicates a long-term upside objective of 72-86. The ability of International Harvester (27) to penetrate 31 would inrlicate higher levels. Current technical pattern is neutral and overhead supply is present. MACHINERY-COMPOSITE. Although the group relative strength remains above average, stock patterns in this group are diverse. Constructive patterns would include Babcock and Wilcox (28), Briggs & Stratton (55), Bucyrus-Erie (26), Caterpillar Tractor (82), Cooper Industries (63) and Gardner Denver (30). Those stocks that have not completed potential base patterns would include AMF (20), Chicago Pneumatic (34), Ex-Cell 0 Corp. (19) and Foster Wheeler (27). This latter group should be watched for improvement in relative strength-' – . – – . — — – , MACHINERY-SERVICE. A number of stocks in this area have had substantial price rises from their 1974 lows. However, with the exception of Dresser Industries (70), these stocks have shown short-term deterioration. These would include Baker International (47), Halliburton (152), McDermott (44) and Schlumberger (76). Would watch this area closely to see if these short-term downtrends are arrested. MOBILE HOME BUILDERS. After reaching their highs in 1972, this group experienced a severe price correction. Since then,the stocks having corrected, have met support and are in the process of building potential base patterns. Fleetwood Enterprises (20) recently broke out of its base pattern indicating an upside objective of 30-40. Skyline Homes (21) also has a strong technical pattern reflecting minimal downside risk at current levels. Ability to reach 27 would break out stock on the upside from a four-year consolidation period. OFFICE/BUSINESS EQUIPMENT. Burroughs Corporation (103) long-term technical pattern is neutral. Ability to reach 115 would signify a breakout on the upside indicating substantially higher levels. Strong support is present in the 100-90 area. SCM Corp. (16)breaks out at 19 indicating long-term upside potential of 37. Digital Equipment (173) and IBM (258) are both in major uptrends with support present under current levels. Would continue to hold. Digital Equipment indicates a 200 objective on the upside and IBM indicates a potential 300-340. Control Data (25), NCR Corporation (28) and Pitney Bowes (16) sho';-;;;utral relative strength and feel time will be needed to improve patterns. This also applies to Xerox Corporation (60). Although a support area in the high 50's seems logical, time will be needed to reverse its major downtrend. OILS. The lOIlgterlIl.relative strengthof the oil group continue.! be below vrage. In most cases, the individual components of this-group readhed their lows iii 1974 and since that time have been in the process of consolidation. The potential base patterns ,of Amerada Hess (20, Cities Service (44), Gulf Oil (25), Shell (54), Standard Oil of California (34) and Union Oil of California (46) appear attractive. PAPE Obviously one of the most outstanding groups, the papers continue to justify purchase on minor weakness. Would consider Crown Zellerbach (46) with an upside objective of 72-80, Mead (29) an upside objective of 45-60, Scott Paper (23) with an upside objective of 36 (overhead supply is present in the high 20-10w 30 area) and St. Regis Paper (46) with an upside projection of 60. Continue to think International Paper (72) and Union Camp (89) at these levels are hold candidates. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1004.09 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 103.00 Cujulative Index (3/25/76) 614.63 RJS/jb ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opinion or ony other matfer herein contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrl!dly or indirectly, on offer or the sollcllotlOn of an offer to buy or sell any seC\JPty referred to or mcnlioned The matter IS presented merely for the COnVellenCE of the subscriber While 'e believe the sources of our mformo han to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herem Any action 10 be token by Ihc subSCriber should be based on hl5 own inVestigation and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os 0 corporation, and Its off,eers or employees, may now have, or may loler tol-e, positions or trades In respect to any secufllles mentioned In thn or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from ony vIews now or hereafter expressed ' Ihll or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc. which IS regIstered WIth the SEC os on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVICe to Its mvestment odv.wry and other customers Independently of ony statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further .nformOhon on ony security men honed herein 15 available on request

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