Viewing Month: April 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 02, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 02, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 02, 1976
View Text Version (OCR)

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE April 2, 1976 This week concludes our review of il1dustrial groups and stocks. All comments are based solely on technical factors and further information on individual issues is available on request. RAILROAD EQUIPMENT Shortterm patterns in-this groupCrmaln constructlve,–Long-termpatterns 'in — ACF (51) and Pullman Corporation (36) are neutral. he ability of ACF to penetrate 62 and Pullman to penetrate 42 on the upside would indicate substantially higher levels. Strong support is present under current levels and feel purchases can be justified on weakness. RAILROADS. The railroad group, we feel, presents an Interesting long-term buymg opportunity for the investor. As a generalization, for the last four years these patterns have been in the process of consolidation. Strong support areas now exist for stocks such as Burlington Northern (37), Norfolk and Western (77), Santa Fe Industries (40) and Union Pacific (85). The ability to break out on the upSide would mdlcate higher levels. Chessle Systems (36) and Southern Railway (55) are In major uptrends indicating higher levels. RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES. Allied Stores (53) and Federated Department Stores (57) having broken out of long-term base patterns are approaching initial long-term objectives and we would continue to hold. Stocks which have also recently broken out indicating higher levels mclude r. C. Penney (59), Marcor (35) and Sears (76). We feel purchases on minor weakness in these securities can be JustIfled as minimum down- side risk appears present. SAVINGS AND LOANS. Although short-term action of this group has been favorable, heavy overhead sup- ply is present preventing stocks from breaking out of their long-term potential base patterns. Ability of Ahmanson & Co. (13) to reach 14, Financial Federation (14) to reach 17, First Charter (16) to reach 17, and Great Western (J8) to reach 24 would penetrate this area. Interestingly, although some overhead supply Is still present, Imperial CorporatlOn of America (J3) has broken out on the upside mdicatlng inll1al upside objective of 22. SOAPS. Colgate-Palmohve Co. (27) and Procter & Gamble (91) are both in long-term neutral patterns. However, at current levels, we feel Colqate-Palmohve With limited downside risk gives the investor a .-12.!trb'l1y-1ngQRP-.9rtunity than Procter & Gamble where considerable risk is indIcated if current trading range–ls-v-iolaiedonthe-dDWnSlde. -..; – .—– -, – STEEL. Although possible short-term tops appear to be developing, we continue to feel steel group af- fords Investor further upside potential. Stocks such as Armco (32), Bethlehem Steel (42), Carpenter Tech- nology (33) and Inland Steel (50) can still be purchased on mmor weakness. We would continue to hold commitments In Republic Steel (35) and U. S. Steel (80) at current levels. TEXTILES-WEAVING. The diverse actlOn of this group can best be shown through the technical patterns of the following three stocks. Improved short-term relative strength in Burlington Industries (29) has broad- ened Its potenUallong-term base pattern. However, it must be noted that heavy overhead supply is present m the high 30's-low 40's area and we feel more time is needed. Cone Mills (52) has already broken out of a substantial base formation and has, 10 fact, reached long-term upside objectives In the mId-SO area. j. P. Stevens (24), on the other hand, has recently broken out of a base formatlOn mdicatlng a potential upside objective of 44 and we feel on minor weakness stock should be purchased. TEXTILES-APPAREL. A number of stocks such as Blue Bell (44), LeVI Strauss (49) and Oxford Industnes (24) have performed very well techmcally stlll indicating higher levels. Farah Manufacturing (JO), Hanes Corporation (23), and jonathan Logan (J8) have neutral long-term technical patterns and would watch for improvement in relative strength to justIfy purchase. TIRE-RUBBER. Firestone (23), Goodrich (27) and Goodyear (22) are in short-term uptrends but are encoun- tering overhead supply above current levels. Would hold commitments in stock but defer purchases until long-term patterns clarify. TOBACCO. Reynolds Industnes (62) continues to be the best-acting security In this group with an up- side objective indicating 80-94. We feel purchase can be justified on weakness. Both Amencan Brands (41) and Philip MorrIS (56), In long-term neutral patterns, reflect minimum downsIde risk and on any Im- – , provedrelative strengthshould be consIdered forpurchase. 'i.. -.. ……., .-,;; – . UTILITIES-ELECTRIC. The common denomInator for stocks in thIS group are short-term uptrends WhICh indicate sllghtly higher levels into eXlsting heavy overhead supply. Do not feel stocks warrant purchase at these levels. UTILITIES -GAS. Relative strength action In this group remains neutral. Amencan Natural Gas (37) and Peoples Gas (36) show mInImum downside risk. With Improvement 10 relative strength, we feel purchases ca n be initiated. UTILITIES-TELEPHONE. A logical way to participate m this group is American Telephone and Telegraph (56). The long-term technIcal pattern has for the past ten years been In the process of consolIdatIon. Recently the stock broke out In the mid SO's from a short-term base indIcating hIgher levels. AbIlIty to reach 60 would Indicate a long-term upside objecl1ve of 88-120. Dow-jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 987.88 S & P Compo (200 p.m.) 101.85 Cumuiatlve Index \4/ J/rb) bO. 53 ROBERT j. SIMPKINS, jR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL RjS/jb No stotement or expreulon of op'nion or any other matter herem contolned 15, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrectly, on offer or the sollcltollon of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the onverlence of the subscriber. While we belIeve the sources of our Informa- tion to be relloble, we in no woy represent or guarantee the occurocy thereof nor of lhe stotements mude herem Any actIon to be token by the subscriber should be bosed on h,s own mvestlgotlon ond mformotlon Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc , o a corporatIon, and Its offIcers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke. posItIOns or trodes m respect to on'( seCUritIes mentIoned In this or any future Issue, ond such p051hon moy be dIfferent from ony VIews now or hereofter expressed In Ih,s or any other Ilsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh,ch IS regIstered WIth the SEC as on Investment adVIsor, may g….e odvlce to Its Investme'll odvlsory and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In thIS or In any othe- nsue Further informatIon on any security mentIOned herein IS avaIlable on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 09, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 09, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 09, 1976
View Text Version (OCR)

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBEFI AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE April 9, 1976 Something is happening; that is for certain. Certainly the euphoria of the first three monthscof 1976'whenthe stock maret, it seemed- to-the casual- observer, -d-id,almost'nothing -bub.– go up, has been totally dissipated. At Thursday's close of 977.09, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average had declined 3.2 from its March high of 1009.31, the sharpest correction it had under- gone since the almost 200-point move from the December low of 818.80. Previously the steepest drop had been a 2.87 decline over two trading days in the middle part of Ma rch. Prior to this week's drop, the market had posted its first significant rally attempt which failed to make a new high, the advance from March 30 through April 5 peaking out at 1004.09, a level some five points below the March peak. If something is, indeed, happening, the problem is to assess its serious- ness and to determine appropriate investment action. Stock market action has been noted by many observers often to resemble the shape of a parabola, with the steepest rises coming at the begin- ning of bull markets, these rises slowly losing momentum and finally ceasing to make new peaks as the market turns down — at first slowly, and then accelerating to the maximum rate of decline at the downswing's end. The arc-like nature of the action oj the Dow since early last December is apparent to anyone who cares to look at a daily chart. The picture clearly presented is that of an advance moving ahead at a decelerating rate. The question, of course, is whether the top of the parabola has as yet been reached. Avg. Chg Breadth Date 12/5/75 D!IA 818.80 Chg. No.Days Per Day Index 779.7 – 2/4/76 976.22 — –Z125!76 94707 19.23 1788 41 .46 820.4 14 .1-3-826,,4 3/11/76 3/24/76 1003.31 1009.31 0.88 0.60 11 .08 823.7 9 .07 822.5 4/5/76 1004.09 -0.52 8 -.06 822.2 Statistically, the market's loss of momentum can be documented by the table above which shows each of the successive minor peaks in the Dow since the advance began in December. As can be clearly seen, on each minor rally the average rate of advance per day has slowed and even, on the last rally, turned negative as the advance failed to attain a new high. The table also shows the action of our daily breadth index, which introduces another disturbing factor into the equation. As can be seen, the high in breadth was reached six weeks ago back in February, and two succes- s ive rallies, one in early March and the other in late March, both of which produced new highs on the Dow, failed to move the breadth index to new peaks. This is the sort of potential diver- gence that has signaled bear markets in the past, and its record is of sufficient accuracy that it bears watching. Two factors, however, must be pOinted out. Such divergences have lasted a good deal longer than six weeks on prior occasions before they were finally destroyed by new highs being attained in the breadth index. It should also be noted that breadth, at its current level of 817.4, has declined very little from its February peak, so that a market reversal at this stage could very easily carry it to new highs. There are, moreover, numerous arguments which mitigate against a substantial decline at this time. One is the simple one that the short space of three months is an awfully short time tofor a major-market cycle have run its-course.CCAnotheris-the fact that few-oistributional patterns have appeared in individual stocks, -and, in those cases where minor tops have formed, downside objectives are, in many instances, already being approached. This is particularly true of many of the basic-industry stocks, which had been leaders of the advance, and V'ere probably. at re- cent peaks, over-extended on a short-term basis. It is obvious, we think, that clouds are appearing on the horizon and that they should be watched carefully. Clouds in the past, however, have been knovm to dissipate 'ithout producing rain, and we suspect that the investor can afford to await more evidence before bolting for the storm cellar. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 978.27 101.18 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL r; ELAF IELD, HARVEY. TABELL Cumulative Index (4/8/76) 601.12 AWT/jb No statement or expreulon of opinion or any olher matter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe SOllCllollon of on offer to buy or sell C1ny security referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the converlenC'EO of the subscrober. While e beheve the sources of our mformo- tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the slolements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformatlon Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, os a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, moy now hove, or may loter toke, poslhon, or trades In respect to any seC1.Jrllles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poslhon may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In this or any other asue Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice 10 Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In ony other Issue Further Informal Ion on any security mentioned herern IS available on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1976
View Text Version (OCR)

– .. –.—— -, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ,I \ ,I i – I g)e/aldd, .Y& akII 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF fill/ley l1,Om'''!1 fIC/ott .A11. MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICA.N STOCK eXCHANGE April 15, 1976 Wall Street is an industry given to nicknames. The billion-dollar companies with un- broken growth records which dominated the market in the early 1970's quickly became glamour stocks or the- hifty fifty' – The ba-s iclndUstrY-coinPariie'SwhlCli;a Cthe1974 76'-lfull'm'ai-K'etafenowbelfigdubbed .—- ' smokestack stocks. The table below documents the performance of a representative group of these stocks versus the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. As can be seen, all of them have outperformed the Dow on their rise from their late 1975 lows, and the bulk of them have dramatically outperformed the average for the entire bull market beginning in late 1974. Late' 74 Late '75 Recent Chg. Chg. Alcan Aluminum Allied Chemica1 Aluminum Co. of Amer. Bethlehem Steel Internationa 1 Pa per Low 19 24 26 23 32 Low 19 30 34 30 50 High 28 45 51 48 80 from' 74 47 87 96 108 150 from I 7S 47 50 50 60 60 Kennecott Copper 25 27 37 48 37 Kimberly-Clark 18 26 47 161 80 Monsanto Co. 40 69 98 145 42 Phelps Dodge 26 31 45 73 45 Republic Steel 22 26 41 86 58 U.S. Steel 36 58 89 147 53 Westvaco 19 25 48 153 92 Weyerhaeuser 24 35 50 108 43 DJIA 585 784 1009 73 29 I–I!-…,.– Since late March, however, the smokestacks have been producing fewer fireworks. The 'follo'wing table shows a '';c;ntTow-for thee-saine stocks-, the percentage retracem,mt of the 197576 move to date and possible downside objectives for the stocks, together with the percentage which would be re- traced if these objectives were attained. It should be noted that the objectives are not offered as fore- casts but as fairly pessimistic downside targets from a technical point of view, based on the patterns which have developed so far. The comments are based on technical factors only and further Information is available on request. Recent Possible Low Retracement Objective Retracement Alcan Aluminum 26 22 23 55 Allied Chemical 38 47 32 87 Aluminum Co. of Amer. 46 29 43 47 Bethlehem Steel 41 39 34 78 Internationa 1 Paper 70 33 60 66 Kennecott Copper 33 40 29 80 Kimberly-Clark 38 43 34 62 Monsanto Co. 87 38 76 76 Phelps Dodge 42 21 39 43 Republic Steel 34 47 30 73 U.S. Steel 79 33 64 80 Westvaco 41 30 34 61 Weyerhaeuser 47 20 44 40 It seems to us the above statistics explain a great deal of the market's current malaise, and.also,'why serious general market weakness.at this-stage.maynot be that)ikely a.possibility. A nor- mal technical rule of thumb Is that a retracement of a given move runs between one-half and two-thirds of that move. Most of the smokestack issues have to date retraced somewhat less than that, suggesting that further correction is necessary before their advance can be resumed. However, the downside objectives given, on average, indicate nothing more than a normal two-thirds retracement and in no case do they pro- ject prices below the late-1975 lows. What we are suggesting, in other words, is that, by and large, the distribution which has taken place in the issues so far indicates nothing more than minor downswmgs which would be limited in extent. This further suggests that the issues in question, once having undergone the normal corrections indicated by these minor tops may well be in a position to resume their upside leader- ship in the next phase of the market cycle. Dow-Jones Industrials 980.48 S & P Compo 100.51 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (4/14;76) 589.40 AWT/jb No statement or expreSSion of opinion or any olner matter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlrelly, on offer or the sOlltltollon of on offer 10 buy or sell ony security referred 10 or menhoned The mailer 15 presented merely for the COnVeftienCiS of the subSCriber While e believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be taken by the subscflber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Informollo'l Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers Of employees, may now have, or may later toke, positiOnS or trades, respect to any seCUrities menhaned m thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed m th or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh.ch IS regIStered With the SEC as an mvest'nenT adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advlry and othel CUstomers Independently of any statements mode In thIS or m any other Issue Further ,nformatIOn on any security menhoned herein IS ovoilable on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 23, 1976
View Text Version (OCR)

–… TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGe April 23, 1976 We have attempted in recent issues of this letter to emphasize two concurrent themes. We have tried to pOint, first of all, to some of the signs of loss of momentum in the stock market -aninosuCggestttiat-deve16pmeri1s'inthlSareWOulilc6iitlriue to-Dearw,Hiiling-.We-havealSotrled— to suggest, on the other hand, that excessive bearishness at this stage of the game prior to the emergence of further negative evidence might tum out to be somewhat premature. The second part of this reasoning was vindicated, at least temporarily, by the market action of last week, as the Dow moved ahead to a new cycle closing high of 1011.02 on Wednesday, a lthough the intra-day peak of 1017.71, achieved on Thursday before profit-taking set in on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, just failed to match the March 24 intra-day high of 10 18.03. The Industrials' high was confirmed by new closing and mtra-day peaks in the Transportation Average. Thus, by the only objective standard, the 1974-76 bull market remains, at least as of midweek, In effect. This shouB be hardly surprising to those who have Studied market histor. A correction of intermediate-term proportions after an upswing is barely three months old is an event almost wlth- O'lt historical precedent. Furthermore, as we have suggested in the past, the most logical upside target on the Dow centered on the 1030-1080 range, and, while the lower part of that range has been approached, the upper part has yet to be attained. Thus, further strength, although probably on the same sort of irregular basis that has prevailed since mid-February, appears a reasonably likely prospect. What the market strength has unfortunately not done to date is dispel a number of clouds which have begun to appear on the horizon since the market's rise began decelerating at the end of February. One of these clouds, which we discussed at some length in our letter of two weeks ago, – – – – I-ha s been.thedjsa ppointingactionf .breadth .mdices ,most.of. whichseac.hed .theirpea kJoack.in February and have failed to move to new high territory since despite a series of three successive new highs on the Dow. As technical analysis has grown in popularity, the use of breadth has re- ceived increasing recognition, and indices based on advance-decline statistics now appear in many publications and are watched by a great number of investors. We do not feel that this increased popularity decreases the value of breadth observations one iota. The fact that breadth is lagging the Dow is a simple indication that fewer stocks are advanCing and this is a warning that should not be ta ken lightly. A number of factors, however, should be pOinted out. The first is that there have been often lags of as much as six months, where breadth has turned down before reversing itself and mcv- ing on to new peaks. A perfect and recent example is the mild consolidation which characterized the second half of 1975. At that time our own breadth index dropped off from a July high of 807 to a low in mid-September of 777, a drop of some 30 points. Nonetheless, when the market finally turned at the end of 1975, by mid-January, 1976, breadth had moved up and achieved a new high. What should further be underscored is that the decline in breadth in 1976 so far has been relatively mild. In 1975, as noted above, the breadth index moved down by some 30 pOints from high to low. The decline in 1976 to date took the index from 827 in February to 815 a week ago, a total drop of only 12 points. Some five of those pOints have since been recovered so tha t a seven-pOint rise would erase the potential divergence which exists. Such a rise could easily be produced by five or six strong trading days and, were this to occur, the divergence which has been worrying us aand others over the past month would instantly evaporate, and the likelihood of further prolongation of the upng, from tlmep'olnt of viewat'ieast, Would be greatly increased. – – – – It is not our mtention with all of this to encourage wide-eyed optimism. The potential breadth divergence does still exist and, as we suggested last week, distributional patterns are be- ginning to appear. However, almost uniformly, they are of a minor nature and are appearing in only a small number of stocks. The emergence of such patterns at the mature stage of a bull market is not an uncommon phenomenon and, absent further evidence of weakness, should be of little concern other than to holders of the stocks involved, who may want to act on them based on their own invest- ment objectives and trading philosophy. Evidence on the general market that has appeared so far, however, consists more of potential cause for future worry rather than incentive to immediate action. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 1003.38 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 102.63 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (4/22/76) 605.75 AWT/jb No tolement or expreslon of oplOlOn or cny other motier herein contOlned I, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or mdlrectly, on offer or the OIU;llot,on of on offer to buy or sell any securrty referred to ar mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the COnVellenCC of the subscrlber While we believe the sources of our Informahon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subsrlber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, and lIS offlers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, POSitionS or trades In respect to any secunlles menhoned In thiS or any future 15SUe, and such POSition may be dlfferenl from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and othel cvSlomea Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS aVailable on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 30, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 30, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 30, 1976
View Text Version (OCR)

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!!40 DIVISION OF MEM8ER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE April 30, 1976 I)s ifficu)ttosaywith any certaintyat this pointjust how the past two months of trading clear– will finto stock -markethlStoryonce-the1;Tsticai-patt;mtiniiliY-becOme Perhaps the onfy-O- guess that can be ventured at this time is that it will be remembered as the period when the magic1000 figure on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average finally lost its magic. In the past eight weeks, the 1000 level, which many people had firmly believed would signify a new era when finally achieved, has been penetrated on the upside on five separate occasions only to be repenetrated on the downside on four of those occasions. The torpor of the last penetration, which occurred at midweek this week, left little in the way of confidence that still a fifth move back down into the 900's might not be in the offing. The present stock market era can be dated with some accuracy now as having begun on February 25, when our daily breadth index scored its high and the Dow posted a peak at 994.57. Since that time, as we have pomted out with perhaps sickening regularity, breadth has failed to score a new peak despite successive new highs in the Dow, and our Cumulative Index, reflecting the action of all NYSE isses, has also drastically underperformed the averages. Recognizing these and other signs of loss of m6mentum, many of our colleagues have seized upon the opportunity to take a somewhat bearish stance. Our own position, as readers will be aware, has been to pOint out that, while market action during the period can hardly be described as good, it is hardly all that bad either. Let us try to quantify a few of the phenomena that have actually taken place since February 25. For one thing, volume has decreased dramatically. During the period of the meteoric rise from December 5, 1975, to the end of February, average daily volume was 25.7 million shares, with a rec- ord 44.5 million share day being recorded. Since the late February benchmark date, it has decreased to under 22 million shares, and, since March 29, it has virtually dried up to an average daily figure of–1R. 7 milUonshares. ,Whileall thtswasgoingol1hQ'Never ,JllOr ,t()QkWj3Sa RPrenJIysrnging hands on the upside than the downside. Volume 0;'\ days that the market advanced averaged i3. 2 million shares and on days when it declined, only 20.9 million. As measured by QUOTRON, the average trad- ing day during the period saw 9.7 million shares of upside volume and 9.3 million shares of downside volume. If the market has spent more trading activity going up than gOing down, it has, in contra st, spent more time on the downside. It advanced on 20 days during the 45-day period in question and declined on 25. Similarly, on average, more stocks have been going down than up, although hardly by a shattering plurality. The average number of advancing stocks for the 45 days has been 702 and the average number of declining stocks 777. However, in very few cases has a decline been serious enough to drag a falling issue back to its 1976 low. On 38 of the 45 days, new highs for 1976 have exceeded new lows, and, on average, each trading day has seen seventy-two 1976 highs versus only fourteen 1976 lows. In terms of average percentage change for all stocks, the underlying figures show noticeable but not overwhelming weakness. On 28 of the 45 days, the average downside percentage change was greater than average upside percentage change. However, the actual levels of percentage change in each direction were fairly close. The problem with all these numbers, as we said above, is that they are bad but by no means overwhelmingly bad. Contrary to popular opinion, market forecasters do not like being on the fence, and we confess we would be a great deal happier if we could take an unreservedly bearish or bullish positlOn. Our assessment of the numbers at this time just does not permit us to do so. – On'the other handtime is slowlybeginningto runoutfor themarket insofar.asupside ac.,. -….-,- tion is concerned. Periods of trading within a restricted range such as the one that has existed since late February do not, historically, last all that long, and, if the current trading range is not to be ul- timately viewed as a penod of distribuhon, it will have to be penetrated with some decisiveness on the upside before too much more time has elapsed. If this does not happen, the desultory action, which we have tried to enumerate above, will have to be, m our view, regarded with a bit more peSSi- mism than we find ourselves now able to derive from it. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (4/29/76) 599.47 AWT/jb 999.29 101.88 ANTHONY W. TABELL D ELAFIEW, HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or c)(preUlon of opinion or any other matter herem contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, On ofler or the soliCltotlon of on offer to buy or sell any sec\lflly referred 10 or menhof1ed The matter IS presef1ted merely for the COf1verQef1CC of the! ,ubscrlber. While we believe the sources of our mforma flOf1 to be reliable, we In no way represef1t or guaraf11ee the accuracy thereof nor of the stotemef1ts mude herem Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Infarmatron Janney Montgomery Scali, lf1c, os a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, moy now have, or may later take, posltlof1S or trades In respect to ony securities mentlof1ed In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or ony other Issue JOf1ney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh,ch IS registered with the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment adVisory and at he. CUSTomers mdependently of any statements made In th.s or In ony other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

Download PDF