TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE . , . –..–!,,, —-'' -;;j-'t;;' —-Z June I, 1973 —r- – ;S' '—–. s;– — —-;., ……. The flurry of excitement which began with the thirty-point Dow rise a week ago Thursday petered out rather rapidly. The market continued firm in last Friday's trading, scoring a further, 6-point advance on increased volume; but, by the beginning of this week, the familiar pattern set in. Tuesday's market saw a 5-point dip and Wednesday's a precipitous 16-point slide. An attempt at recovery was made Thursday as prices erased a 7-point loss at mid-day, but, by the close of Thursday's session, almost all the gain had been given up and prices closed gen- erally at their lows. The Industrial Average by that time had given up almost two-thirds of the total ground gained, and prospects seemed to favor a test of last week's lows with littleappar- ent probability that the test would be successful. To the long list of negative technical factors which have characterized recent markets it became necessary this week to add still another—decreasing volume. Up until this week NYSE volume had been running at around 15 million shares on average and had reached as high as 19,270,000 shares in the rally on Friday. As prices declined, trading dried up, with volume under 12 million shares on Tuesday and Wednesday and just over that on Thursday. There is a prevalent myth concerning price-volume action which holds that this sort of thing is, in fact, bullish. The myth says that rising volume indicates a continuation of a trend and falling volume a possible reversal. According to this theory the fact that volume rose during last Thursday's and Friday's rally and dried up on the ensuing decline should be encouraging. Actually the reverse is true. Market declines tend to be characterized by continually decreasing I -,-'-O-l\fme;uitfilsllclf'tlmeas'tfiey-rea-chtlieil'ImalclimactrcsTage-sAt-thattime7volume-tends- – to build up sharply on the downside, as we indicated in our letter of last week. Thus were prices to begin falling on sharply increasing volume it might indicate that a bottom was nearby, at least from a timing point of view. The continual erosion of prices with very little trading activity suggests precisely the opposite. With the volume dry-up ofthis week added to other discouraging technical factors, it is very difficult to find encouraging signs. Paradoxically, the strongest grounds for optimism lie in the degree to which the picture has turned negative. There is, in any market, a point of maxi- mum deterioration, and we may be approaching that point. We follow, on a regular basiS, some 1600 individual stocks identifying these stocks as being in up, neutral, and down trends on both a major and minor basis. As of last week only 9 of the entire list remained in major uptrends and over two-thirds had to be catalogued as being in downtrends of major magnitude. An astonishing 84 of all stocks were in, at least, minor reactions, and fewer than one stock in twenty was able to maintain minor uptrend status. These figures are approaching the levels generally seen at around market bottoms. Actually, at a stage like the present one, the direction of the trend is less important than price'objectives. Certainly nobody needs to be told, at this late stage, that the trend of most stocks is down. At least some encouragment may be gleaned from the fact that, over the past few weeks, major downSide targets were being approached or reached by a significant number of.!ssues. In all of these cases.the.downside.targets,were basedon rather clearly defied ,, distributional patterns, 'so there 'is eason -to suspect that they have some degree of validity. Thus it is fair to state that significant numbers of issues are at levels where one would sus- pect they are attractive on a long-term basis. Quite obviously, this does not apply to all issues; and it does not, in particular, apply to a large number of stocks contained in the popular averages. One characteristic of the recent decline which we have repeatedly noted is that, throughout, the averages have dramatically outperformed the average stock. We may well be entering a stage where the reverse may be the case. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 894.87 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 104.27 AWTrk ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No stalemenl or expressIOn of opinion or any other mOiler herein contOlned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the solicllollon of on offer 10 buy or sell ony security referred 10 or mentioned The motter IS presented merely for the converlence of the subScriber While oNe believe the Ource of our Informotlon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any ochon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Invesllgatlon and Information Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and lIs of/lcers or employees, may now hove, or may later toke, positions ar trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or ony future Issue, end such poslt,on may be different from any views now or hereofter eypressed In thiS or ony other Issue Jonney Montgomery Sc01l, Inc, wh'ch .s registered With the SEC os on Investment adVisor, moy give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and othel O)stomers Independently of any staTemenTs mode In thiS or In ony other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OBS40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE -.—- —- — Random thoughts in a desultory market. June 8, 1973 On Being Present at History — A famous market technician once offered the apparently inane but actually profound observation that prices are always lowest at their lows. What he was saying, of course, is that major market lows are often preCisely identified only by hindsight. We all know, for example, that June 1932, June 1949 and, more recently, May 1970 were historic low points. It is doubtful, however, if the historic nature of these major lows was apparent to many at the precise time they were taking place. The pointis that any time that prices plunge to new lows, as they have been doing recently and may do again, it is at least possible that a low of historic proportions is being attained. This may be a thought worth keeping in mind in the months ahead. On Adam Smith's Birthday — A group of noted economists recently met in the small Scottish village of Kirkcaldy where Adam Smith was born and where he wrote An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations some 200 years ago. It was fitting that so many notables should gather to honor one who was the Father of their profession and one of the great minds of modem times. Smith was, of course, one of the first to understand the nature of the market p3ce;and the investor, who, after all, must deal in just such a place, the stock market, should find the 200-year old Wealth of Nations more valuable reading than a great deal of what is written on the stock market today .. For examllle, Smith note,d–..e- tnat The'-market pr!cof -eveiy -particular cOmmodity–is-Cegula-ied-by ih-proportiori'betweem the quantity which is actually brought to market, and the demand of those who are willing to pay the natural price of the commodity which must be paid in order to bring it thither. It is a wisdom that many people forget when discussing stock prices. On Index Funds — Thursday's Wall Street Journal carried an interesting lead article on the growing number of index funds, funds which are set up with no other end in view beyond duplicating the performance of a particular market average. This, actually, is not an easy task, as those of us who are familiar with the construction of averages are aware, and to accomplish it efficiently requires extensive computerized manipulation. Whether it is worthwhile is something else again. We, and others, have repeatedly suggested that the secular uptrend which for so long characterized the major averages may, for an appreciable amount of time at least, no longer be present. If this is the case, the long-range return on a portfolio that simply duplicates the average will be sub-par indeed. It will be a pity if all of the effort which is gOing into establishing these funds produces results which could have been bettered at the nearest savings bank. On InSide Information — The Equity Funding case and a few other recent instances have raised serious problems regarding the definition of inside information and the methods by which this information, once gleaned, should be disseminated. It appears probable that the whole body of regulations 'under which the 'investor must'operate will'have'to cope over the next few years with the redefinition of inside information. It makes us happy to be technicians, since our own input consists exclusively of that most public of all information, stock prices, which are available in copious detail in every major newspaper. Although we will probably continue to be required to contend with those academicians who believe that our analysiS of this information is useless, there is little possibility. at the moment at least, that it will be made illegal. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 920.76 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 106.92 AWTrk ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement Of expression of opinion or ony other matter here,n contOlned IS, or 15 to be deemed to be directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on oller to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The molter 15 presented merely for the canver'lence of the subscriber While oNe believe Ihe urces of ovr Information to be reliable, we In no woy represent Of guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporation, and Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, positions or trades In respcct to any secvflhes menlloned In thiS or any future ISSue, ond such POSitIOn may be different from any Views now or hereafter cxpressed In thiS or any other ISSue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice to lIs Investment adVisory and othel C\lstomer5 mdependently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other 155ue Further information on any SCWrlty mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER I J 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBSA NIEW VORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE June 15, 1973 The stock market's reaction to the announcement of Phase 3 1/2 was a yawn, followed by a resumption of the decline which had temporarily halted last week. After an early rally attempt, prices began to slide at noon Thursday and plunged below the 900 level on Friday morning. There have been sufficient announcements of new economic programs from Washington, starting with Phase 1 way back in August 1971, that, when the President finally dropped the other shoe this week, the effect was anti-climactic. This despite the fact that the market had spent the days prior to the announcement bouncing up and down, ostensibly on rumors centering on whether or not Mr. Nixon was going to make a speech on the economy and, if so, what he was going tosay. The stock market is, at the moment, in our view, beset by a number of demons, some real and some imaginary. It is the imaginary ones, unfortunately, which get the biggest play in the news media, whereas the real ones go largely unnoticed. Some of these imaginary market worries include the following Price Controls — As noted above we have had a long series of announcements of new econ- omic game plans and they have, by this time, become old hat. The market has, in our view, by this time come to realize that the causes of inflation are deep-rooted and fundamental, and are unlikely to be solved overnight by tinkering. Watergate — That the Watergate incident will ultimately become an important part of American history is undoubted. Any attempt to relate it to the near-term course of the stock market is, we think, at best tenuous. Recession Fears — Here we are getting a bit closer to home. If a recession begins in the fourth quarter of 1973, as some economists are now forecaSting, 1974 profit estimates will no doubt have to be revised downward in the case of a number of stocks. Yet a great deal of a possible 1974 recession may already be built into the structure of stock prices, and, if the history of the relationship between past recessions and past bear markets is any guide, the present downswing will be over well before the end of any such recession and, possibly, before it even begins. While we would categorize the above factors as illusory insofar as explaining the market decline is concerned, there are a number of troubles affecting equity markets which are real, albeit they tend to have less current news value. These would include the following Public Participation — The loss of faith in the equity market by the individual investor is, by this time, well-documented, but it may well be the most important single explanation of why the market has acted as poorly as it has. Certainly it would be unrealistic to expect the stock market again to act as it did in the 1950's and 1960's without the public interest char- acteristic of that period. Interest Rates — This is at least a partial explanation of lack of public interest. The willingness of the individual investor to invest for generous income is demonstrated by the tumultuous reception given new bond funds over the past year. The stock market, meanwhile, provides substantially lONer income during a period where dividends are partially frozen. The Two-Tier Market — Lack of public interest has, in tum, created two disparate markets in which those stocks which are regularly bought by large institutions are selling at premium prices and the entire remainder of the market rests on the bargain counter. This situation is, of course, charged with instability. Illiquidity — Large concentrations of holdings in a few issues and lack of interest in the rest have created a market situation where, in general, large blocks of stock cannot be moved without violent price changes. Observation of these violent changes, of course, may have the effect of further decreasing public confidence. None of the above problems, of course, are of the sort which lend themselves to any easy solution which can be duly announced in the morning papers. Our own feeling, though, is that they are much more fundamental in explaining the stock markets malaise than a number of other more widely cited causes. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 890.35 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 105.25 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTrk No tatement or e-press,on of opinion or any other motler herem contolned 1, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlrect'r,' on offer or the 501ICIIolion of on offer to buy or s.c1l any security referred to or mentioned The motter IS presented merely for the converlcncc of the subKnbcr Wh, e we believe the sources of our information 10 be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stotements mude herem Any action to be taken by the svbC(lber should be bosed on hIs own Investigation and mformahon Janney Montgomery Sco11, Inc , a a corporation, and ,Is officers or employees, moy now hove, or may later take, poslltons Of trades In respect to any seCUrttles mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dIfferent from any views now or hereafter expressed m thiS or ony other ISue Janney Montgomery Sco!t, Inc, which IS reglSlered With Ihe SEC a on mve!olmenl adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and othel cvstomers mdependently of any stalements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further ,nformotlOn on ony seClJllty mentioned herem IS available on request

– – – ——– – – – – – – ———— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE . . — June 22, 1973—-;o ——,,'';; ,…. .'…- T ' ..,.– '-;;;.. .,,.,.. – -. – — Readers of this letter are well aware that we have a continuing scepticism regarding the effect of news events on the stock market. In all too many cases the market tends to seize on a piece of financial news as an excuse to do what it was about to do anyway. Thus, while the market was gOing down for the past six months,we were deluged with comments blaming the downtrend on the rising price of gold, the weakness of the dollar, Watergate, recession fears, and heaven knows what all else. An explanation much closer to the truth would have been simply that the market remained in the grips of what had basically been an unfavorable supply-demand situation. The decision on the Committee of Interest and Dividends to relax the dividend guidelines may just possibly be an exception to this rule. By allowing dividends to rise along with rising earnings, so long as a five-year average payout ratio is not exceeded, the Committee may have cured one of the more fundamental maladies affecting the stock market. A good part of our own lack of enthusiasm for common stock purchases at current levels has been due to the lack of any logical rationale therefor in the face of record high yields on fixed-income securities and other forms of investment. Previously such a rationale had -'- lj'een 'aval1able–oil'111e lnebrrtRat'eaffiil1gr of' many companieinvere–;overtllelong-term, rislng– – '' that dividends could be expected to rise along with those earnings, and that, therefore, selected stocks could be attractive at yields substantially lower than those provided by debt instruments. Under the new guidelines, that rationale is once again available. And yet a few factors must be noted before joy at the prospect of sky rocketmg dividends becomes unconfined. The new guidelines have made many stocks excellent long-term values at current prices. The problem, of course, is that they were pretty good values before. The existence of these values did not alter a dismal technical situation which was effectively driving stock prices still lower. Unfortunately, Friday morning's rally does not alter that situation either. Strong as it was, the early Friday rally did nothing more than to move the index up into an area of moderate overhead supply. Before it can be hypothesized that the technical picture has been fundamentally altered,further evidence will indeed be required. The first such evidence would be provided by a decisive breakthrough of the 930 level which has halted previous rally attempts. Beyond that,we would like to see some evidence of follow- through, such as a sharp reduction in the number of new lows and the ability tc hold at logical support levels. None of this sort of evid!mce was, or indeed could have been,providedjy -this morning's market-strength.' – – – —– We feel thus impelled to remind our readers of the number of swallows necessary to make a spring. It is possible that the next couple of weeks will provide evidence that the baSic situation has altered. Meanwhile,we would suggest restraining unwonted euphoria until more concrete technical reasons therefor become available. Dow-Jones Industrial (1200 p.m.) 882.00 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 103.91 AWTrk ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opinion or ony olher motter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the sollcltotlon of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the convellcnCEI of the subscriber While oNe believe the sources of our Informohan 10 be reliable, we In no way repreent or guora'ltee The accuracy thereof nor of the statements m.lCe here, Any actIOn to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation ond .nformatlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as 0 corporation, and ITS officers or employees, may now have, or moy later Toke, poSitions or trades In reSpect to any SeCUrities mentioned In trlls or any futu'e Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on ,vestment adVisor, moy give adVice to ,ts Investment adVisory and othel customers ,dependently of any staTemenTS mode In thIS or ' any other Issue Further InformaTion on any secuflty mentIOned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSV 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW 'ORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEM8ER AMERICAN STOCI EXCHANGE June 29, 1973 In some 15 years of writing about the stock market we have always found It to be a fascinating tOPIC -and' have-seldom,found'FIhoverl y..difficult-to find ',newfacetswhich w.ouldprojdedhe,s!!bject for a weekly comment. The greatest dIfficulty, however, occurs in markets like the present one, which has been charactenzed. since January, by a certain eerle sameness. It has been, in the simplest of terms, a market which has been going down with little in the way of any SIgn of rever- sal more convincing than the tepid sort of strength which occured last week. It is perhaps hopeful in focusing on the current stock market dilemma to remind ourselves of a few rather elementary facts about the nature of stock prices. One of the most elementary and yet one of the most helpful of such facts is the recollection that a stock price, like a plane in the air or a ship at sea is a moving object and, as such, possesses three qualities that are necessary to an understanding of its es sence, level, direction, and momentum. This analogy can be clairified by reference to other sorts of moving objects, for example, a plane in flight. If we were to state that a plane, at a given time, was 30,000 feet over Chicago and to pose the question of where it was likely to be two hours later,we would obviously be in pos- session of insufficient information to formulate an answer. We would be aware of the plane's current position (analogous to the current level of the stock market), but we would obViously also like to know in which direction the plane is headed and how fast It is traveling. PosseSSIOn of all three items of information, level, direction, and momentum, would give us an idea of where the plane was likely to be at anytime 10 the future. Of course we would still be unable to forecast with 100 accuracy. There would be no guar- antee, in the case of the airplane, that the pilot would not deCIde to change his course one, or indeed a number of times. However, even allowing that course changes are always possible, we would still want to calculate level, direction, and momentum if for no other reason than to deflne – – – -'I-'–0'7.wn-atwoultl'corfstltute-a-'P(),s's-ibl'-eourse-changeo– — ''– — — —'– —- – So it',S with the stock market. The current level of the stock market is well known. Its direction is also pamfully obVious to most observers, that dIrection, smce January, having been down. Momentum is only a slightly more complex calculation. Every observation (1. e. closing price) of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average smce January 11 of this year has been contained within a trend channel approximately 67 points wide which has been declining at the rate of 1.09 points per day. It is this latter figure which gIves us the third ingredient in our equation, and, with all three factors in 'our posseSSion, we now have a considerably better, albeit still rough idea of the nature of stock prices over the past six months. There is an unfortunate tendency on the part of many investors to think of stock prIces only in terms of level rather than conSIdering also the other two factors and to suggest that a stock is cheap at a given price without considering that its direction has been down and that no evidence of a course change has been given. Now there is some validity to this. To overwork our airplane analogy a bit more, no plane can continue on the same course indefinitely. It would eventually, if nothing else, run out of fuel. Likewise, with any stock market downtrend,the only true certainty is that it will, someday and at some level, reverse itself. The task of analYSIS is to decide what would constitute true eVIdence of a change of course and not to assert that because a given level has been reached such a course change is any more probable. Thus our difficulties in finding new things to say about the stock market in the past few months. The market has stubbornly remained on precisely the same course with approximately the same momentum. The evidence of any course change has been tenuOUR if not, indeed, nonexistent. We have referred in this space in the past to what we would like to see as such evidence. Ce-rtainly crucialtheretowould be an upside p.metrat!on of the trend channel'referred to ab-ove.- -'-0– the upper limit of that channel now being located at approximately the 917 level in terms of the Dow. We would like, moreover, to see such a breakout accompanied by the sort of volume that has normally occurred at climactic market bottoms, and we would, in addItIOn, lIke to see some evidence of breadth and follow-through WhICh could be adduced from such items as a sharp reduc- tion in the number of new lows etc. We would also lIke to see a host of other factors which are characteristic of bottoms, high institutional cash pOSition, low short sellIng by specialists, and heavy short selling by odd lotters just to name a few of many. We have no idea qUIte frankly when such evidence will assert itself. Until such time as it does, it will be pointless to assert that anything in the stock market picture has changed. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 892.76 S & P Camp. (1200 p. m.) 104.45 AWTrk ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No sfatement or epresslon of opmlon or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indnectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or menhoned The mOiler IS presented merely for the convel'lence of the subSCriber While oNe believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to. be token by the subSCriber shauld be based on hiS awn Investlgohan and mformotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. as a corporation, and Its officers Of employees, may now have, or may laler toke. POSITions or trades In respect to any secufilies menhoned In thiS or any future Ihue, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment advlor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers mdependently of any statements mode In thiS Of In any other Issue Further Information on ony seC\Jtlty mentioned herein IS aVailable on request