TABELL9 S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE October 29, 1971 The slide in stock prices, which has characterized equity markets since early September, contin- ued last week, developing momentum as it went along. As the August 10 low of 839.59 on the DJll — – was breacnedlnWnescra s tra-ding, following anariiiOStnne-pointslldetntfie Irtd ex; tned';'rop;;;;'-.–1, posted all kinds of near-records for sheer persistance. Wednesday marked the lIth consecutive declining day in the Dow, a number of consecutive de- clines which has been exceeded only once in the past 45 years — and that all the way back in 1941. The string was broken by a mild attempt to post a rally in Thursday's trading but this petered out toward the close and, even on Thursday, more stocks declined than advanced for the 12th consecu- tive day, again a record that has been surpassed only twice in 45 years of history, on both occasiore during the 1969-1970 bear market. Quite obviously, if we do not have a full-grown bear on our hands, we have a vicious, little cub quite capable of doing extensive damage. As readers of this letter are well aware, we have been arguing repeatedly over the past year that the stock market of the 1970's is likely to be an entirely new ball game. In the process, we have suggested repeatedly that supply-demand factors were extremely important and we have cited such negatives as continued public selling of equities, net redemptions of mutual funds, coupled with a low cash position in those funds, and the prospect for reduced pension-fund equity purchases. We are impressed by the extent to which parallel arguments have become popular in recent weeks and the extent to which they are being us ed as a rationale for still lower prices. It is here, we think, that a number of analysts may be treading on dangerous ground. At this point, it may be helpful to back up and trace the history of our own infatuation wit h supply/demand figures. Since we are technicians, this concern began, appropriately enough, with 1 asimple.examination0.marketaction.The.bearmarketof..l969-01970decisill,elyviolatedtheuptrend – – which had characterized the DJll since 1942, and the failure of the 1970-1971 bull market to move to a new high confirmed the probability that the' underlying trend of most stock averages since 1966 had been, if not down, at least flat. Obviously, there had to be some reason for this apparent statisti- cal change, and a whole series of explanations then immediately suggested themselves, including increased individual purchases of bonds,which offered near-record returns throughout the period, re- duced levels of new mutual fund purchases, etc., etc. We had, in other words, and still think we have, a plausible explanation as to why the market, cycle to cycle, has been able to make little head- way over the past six years. We think it dangerous, however, to carry the analogy farther than this. To our knowledge, no precise model exists relating the flow of individual and institutional money to near-term changes in the equity market and, in the absence of such a model, we are inclined to rely on more conventional tools. Use of such tools, at the moment, tends to yield a somewhat brighter picture. For example, the market had reached, by the end of this week, an almost classic, deep oversold position. fYVe are using the phrase here, not as a catch phrase, as it is so commonly used, but, in terms of objective assessment of the levels of various technical indicators compared to past levels.) The significance of such a position is quite simply this. It provides no assurance that the market cannot, over the near term, go lower. The depth of the present oversold condition is, for example, nowhere near that seen at record low levels such as 1962, 1966 or May, 1970. It is deep enough to suggest, however, that from this level on down, we will probably be subj ect to what may, unscientifically, be called the rubber band effect. In other words,whatever-levelis'ultimately reached on'the' downside, it is quite probable that the Dow will return to present prices on the subsequent rally. We have cited before, in addition, the prevalence of a large number of good technical patterns which have remained stubbornly intact. That there has been damage done, some of it perhaps irre- trievable, to a good many technical patterns, we do not for a moment deny. Our own assessment of that damage, however, continues to be that it differs in degree from that witnessed in previous major downswings. Major tops have, in the past, been characterized by internal deterioration taking place under the guise of relatively firm prices, in other words, by markets which look better than their true internal condition. The current market has almost opposite characteristics in that, in many ways, it appears on the surface worse than it really is. Dow-Jones Industrial (Noon) 836.08 S&P (Noon) 93.89 AWTmn ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL htNttpbohlooaoiSSnsbeistodtiaortnoeoasbnmrneoyeshrenrioSelttltlrhioaoaaedrwnbreylensenx,sspIienunrwceevurseeeTsssiJlmtotpaiyngencarnneottoeiffoteyornwoTMpaaeaindyonnynid1rot0egsnpeIoonrcmoerufroersmirreatmynienetanySsltocliomoroonttnetgh,enuedtJrIaiaonrmnanTcnneha.edtetewyteemIhnrMiotchhtthohteeeinrSr1eto5giocInoSrrcmeucpgaer;rinoarseynyctseyleoSrfnleutcnldhtoeeuetddrWtre,emoIiStIIfheS,nrsocnetuhor,leyer,10foSaofEn1rC0adththbocesoeesurscapdtthoanoenterpevaImomnetSilveeolednhunsot,tfnsmnarameenmbnduoetadf,ya1e1dtdhbVihreeeoeisrfcsoefdutimrlicb,yfeSfrmeCosrArraeionynbIryetngrde.foiirmvcrWoeehpmcohlotoinldlayyevn,teloyecoseneb,ve1iombe0ftweafaIleytskisreenvnnmooeorvwwbtetyseohtemr'hsseeooenuels,tlrrCcueaoeibar!dssfOVt0ehIf,nOeyoerfu)yo(IrfoprInonfursolc0ordm!tfhkfoeienrer-' C'Uslomers Independently of any stotements mode In thiS or In ony olher ISsue Further Information on any seomly menlianed herein 15 avollable on request

, ..- r – ! L TABELL-S MARKET LETTER '– –' 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE It was a hair-coloring product which popularized the phrase Does She or Doesn't She. Last week Wall Street was playing the game of Was It or Wasn't It. The question in this case referred to whether the intra-day low of 814.69 reached on Tuesday constituted the final culmination of the dizzy slide in stock prices which had brought the Dow down from 950 last April and 920 just two months ago. Those hoping for a definitive pronouncement from this quarter will, we are afraid, be disappointed. We will go so far only as to ansv.er It might well have been. The rebound, for example, was nowhere as near definitive as, say, those last few days of May, 1970, during which the Dow plunged some 75 points over a seven-clay period and then recovered all of the ground lost over the next four days. At that point, it was obvious to almost anybody that something important had certainly occurred. Nonetheless; last week's action, if short of totally convincing, was highly impressive . .Mter a precipitous 13-point drop on Monday, the market continued its slide with a further seven-point decline on heavy volume in Tuesday morning's trading. Then, with the tape running late on the upside, the entire decline was erased, and prices remained firm on light volume throughout the afternoon. On Wednesday, as major institutions which had been closed for the election-day holiday returned to work, prices were strong from the opening bell and, by the end of the day, the DJIA had managed to post a 14-point gain. The gain was further extended to an intra-day high of 855.21, forty points above the low, 1 -2!1..!I!.urE.sIy;, bef9rllness.st inJ!.E.!!!ursday and Friday, —I It is not stretching a point too much to say that the action at mid-week met the classic technical requirements for a selling climax. Such a climax requires the following pre-conditions. 1) The market should decline on heavy volume. 2) A rally on equally heavy or heavier volume should then take place. 3) The rally should follow through in subsequent trading. Most of the requirements were met. Heavy volume is, of course, an imprecise phrase and Tuesday's 13 million shares was hardly impressive by m 0 s t standards. It did, nonetheless, represent an increase from recent levels, especially during the early part of the day when 7.6 million shares changed hands in the first two hours vs. only 10.9 million shares the entire day before. Allowances must also be made for the fact that Tuesday was, for many, a holiday. Furthermore, the Wednesday rally, the second biggest of 1971 to date, was also impressive. Now so-called multiple-climax declines are not unknown, and it would certainly not be unprecedented for the drop to resume and repeat the whole process undergone last week on a more grandiose scale at some lower level. It may, for example, be significant that a number of indicators of public bearishness, such as odd-lot short-selling, had not, last week, reached levels normally characteristic of major bottoms. More important, oscillator-type indicators, while deeply oversold, were stubbornly refusing, a,s of Friday, to suggest an imminent reversal. In the present instance, time is likely to be on the investor's side. Before too long, the indicators referred to above will have either signalled a definite reversal or, by their failure to do so, have indicated a continuation of the decline. Furthermore, we have, in the past, pointed out that the,rally.in.a,bear.market is,one.of.the,great,mythical,beasts.of steck.marketTtheory.-Bear—- -markets tend to get to where they are going with very little in the way of intervening rallies. Therefore, the longer the market can hold and consolidate its gains the better shape it would be in. One of the final tests of the May, 1970 bottom was a small decline in early June which, unlike previous declines, did not plunge through prior support levels but ihstead quickly reversed itself. Such a test in the next week or so would be impressive eVidence in the present case. Dow-Jones Industrial (Noon) 836.67 S&P (Noon) 94.14 AWTmn ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No statement Of expression of opinion or any other matter herein conTolned is, or is to be deemed to be, dIrectly or indIrectly. on offer Of Ihe sollcltollon of on offer fa buy Of sell ony secuflty referred to Of mentioned The motler IS presented merely for the convcr,ence of the subscriber While -Ne believe the sources of our Informaon to be reliable, we In no …..oy represent or guarantee the atcurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformatlon Janney Montgomery ScOIl, Inc, as a corporollon, Clnd Its offlters or employees. may now have, or may laler lake, poSitions or tradcs In rcspect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter exprcssed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, 1m , which IS registered with the SEC as on Invf!stmenl adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adViSOry and other cvslomers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Fur1hcr Information on any SCWflty mentioned herem IS available on request

,——————— – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – .——,— TABELL-S MARKET LETTER , I t -, 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW..JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK eXCHANGE, tNC. MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – Issuance of a market forecast at this time is, actually, a fairly easy task. November 12, 1971 Now that statement 1s not made simply to raise the hackles of investors who watched their port-folio values erode' Iurtherlast weeK, as the' DrIApluriged to 'a riew 1971low. -It Is;father, inea'iini-' – – suggest that periods of sharp price erosion such as the present one are relatively rare in mar k e t history and, on those occasions when they do occur, a number of reasonably consistent behaVior patterns are recognizable. It was recognition of this fact which led us purposely to equivocate, last week, as to whether the rally which started on November 2, constituted the bottom of the 1971 price slide. We indicated that, indeed, a number of classic technical requirements for a selling climax had been fulfilled on that upswing, but we also suggested that there was ample historical precedent for bottoms to take place with more than one such selling wave. We pointed out that a number of indicators, while deeply oversold, had, as of lst week, refused to suggest an imminent reversal and noted, Before too long, (these indicators) will have signalled a definite reversal or, by their failure to do so, have indicated a continuation of the decline. Quite obviously, that continuation is suggested by last week's action. The first thing a study of previous markets as deeply oversold as the present one tells us is the absolute futility of trying to pinpoint exact downSide objectives. Quite obviously, from this point, selling momentum should continue to build until that level is reached at which demand for stocks will be sufficient to turn the market. What we can recognize from a study of market history is that whatever low is going to be reached is likely to be reached fairly soon. The market has been in a deep oversold condition for more than two weeks now and a period of much longer than a month in such a condition,is a fairly rare phenomenon. Furthermore 'owe have now reached the stagewhre—f the ultimate rebound, when it comes, is likely to be more powerful the lower the market goes. Thus, the market climate, near term, may not be pleasurable, but it is almost certain to be exciting. As to what happens after the ultimate reversal takes place, it is, of course, too early to make any but the most speculative guesses. It is not too early, however, to suggest a couple of factors which we think will be crucial to determining market action in the first half of 1972. As we all should be aware by now, the basiC forces behind the stock price weakness since last Spring have been continued public 'disenchantment with the equity market and a reduced institutional participa- tion which was not sufficient to take up public selling along with the rising level of new issues. Thus, to a great extent, in our view, the prospect for better future stock prices will hinge upon a reduced supply of stock coming from individuals and/or an increase in overall demand for U.S. equites. It is easy to suggest the factors that might produce these two phenomena. Quite obviously, public funds have been diverted from the stock market in recent years by, among other things, record yields available from bonds. Were bond prices to continue their recent improvement, it seems to us axiomatic that the level of public equity sales might well be substantially reduced. On the demand side of the equation, the investor most conspicuous by his absence from the recent stock market scene has been the foreign buyer, obviously due to the uncertainty surrounding international monetary conditions. It seems, therefore, reasonable that continued lower long-term interest rates, coupled with a solution to international monetary problems, could exert a powerful upward force on the stock market over,thenext,year , .. '-' Meanwhile, a few unanswered questions remain as to the present decline. One of this downswing's pronounced characteristics to date has been the miniscule extent to which it has affected a substan- tial number of stocks. Despite the fact that the averages are now at the lows of a vicious drop, now more than six months old, a substantial number of issues are within a few points of their 1971 highs. It may be, of course, that the final phase of the downswing will catch up to these relatively resistart stocks and eventually sweep them along with the tide. There is certainly -ample precedent for this in the past. And yet, another unique factor about this decline, and indeed about the advance which pre- ceded it, was the complete absence of any speculative phase — the sort of thing that normally brings about the final wave of liquidation. It is, therefore, at least, possible that a fairly substantial number of issues will weather what remains of the current debacle relatively unscathed Dow-Jones Industrial (Noon) 807.68 S &P (Noon) 91. 48 ANTHONY W. TABELL AWTmn DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expreu,on of oplnlo'n or any other motler herein contc.ned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the 501lc,lo1I0l of on offer to buy or sell cny seamty referred 10 or menlloned The moiler IS presented merely for the converlenq; of the subscriber While we believe the sourres of our Informo- han to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any achon to be taken by the subSCriber should be oosed on hIS own InvestIgation and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc. 05 a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, positiOns or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such position moy be dIfferent from ony views now or hereafter expressed m thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whICh IS reg.ucred With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIve adVice to Its mvestmenl adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements mode In thIS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any scamty me'ltloned herein IS aVailable on request

– – ,–….- —– . . , ,I , TABELL'S , MARKET LETTER I , I , 1-.-.- . ………-.-. -, -' – ,, .J l) ,Y'&'J'Ily,. !TakII 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF , fo,ney o./l'imeI'Y Y/.,a Y1!C. MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE November 19, 1971 Stock prices attempted to firm in the early part of last week but that strength was aborted with weak- – e nes s-T'hursdayand'ear-IyFriday'–The -rally ,attemptswere unimpres sive.and certainly' insufficient to ,signal, any sort of major reversal. The immediate course of least resistance is apparently downward but, we think, at current levels, the amount of risk is limited — perhaps 5-8 in terms of the popular averages and less for a great many individual stocks. Since periods such as the present generally produce visits in market leadership, stock selection will be important and we are, therefore, continuing in this letter our review of the technical position of maj or industrial groups. OILS – Both the international and domestic segments of the industry have been showing inferior action relative to the market since the end of 1970. This unfavorable action has been particularly marked in the case of the international issues. Although SOme internationals are available at substantial discounts from their early 1971 prices. and appear fairly valued fundamentally, further downside risk appears possible and we would be inclined to defer new investments at this time. Domestic oils such as Phillips Petroleum(28) and Cities Service (41) have returned to long-term base areas and, although near-term action may be slow, they could be candidates for accumulation. Amerada Hess (37), down from a high of 71, appears cheap although rebasing will be required. PAPER – As a group, action has been average but patterns are mixed. Union Camp (33) has returned to the support in the low 30's and, although short-range softness is possible, the long-term base pattern re- mains intact suggesting higher levels. The same is true of International Paper (29) now selling near the low end of its trading range for the past three years. PUBLISHING This group has shown above-average action and has remained, to date at least, highly re- sistant to the bear market. However, most stocks in the industry have returned to the heavy overhead supply area around their 1968 and 1969 highs. Ability to penetrate this supply would be encouraging, but the issue remains' lnaOtrllt-anhmnorrrent. RADIO-TV BROADCASTERS – Recent action has cast some doubt on at least the near-term outlook for these issues. After moving upward sharply in early 1971, the stocks have been moving laterally since that time and potential tops exist. We would be disturbed at downside breakouts below 40 in the case of American Broadcasting (46), 39 in the case of Capital Cities Broadcasting (41), and 32 in the case of Taft Broad- casting (36). RADIO-TV MANUFACTURING – Most issues at recent highs were running into overhead supply. However, they appear to have corrected sufficiently and risk appears limited at the present time. RAILROADS – By and large, group relative action has been good. The Dow-Jones Transportation Average ,has reached its most plausible downside objective at 221 and the most likely eventuality is that it will rebase in the broad 220-230 area. Southern Pacific (42) presents one of the more interesting indiVidual patterns in the group. RAIL EQUIPMENT- Most issues in this group continue to show above-average action. General American Transportation (47) appears attractive, and Pullman Inc. (45) has returned to a strong support area in the mid 40's. RETAILING – Relative action of this group during 1971 has featured above-average action on the part of department and variety stores, action more or less, in line with the market from disounters and mail- order issues and sub-par action on the part of food retailers which are down sharply from their April highs. By and large, most issues in this latter group appear to have reached support levels and are attractive on a long-term basis. In the department-store field, such issues as Federated Department Stores (46) and May' s (42) have so far continued their good relative action and resisted the general market decline. Continued abilityof the foriner io hold 'aDoe4 2 'and'the'latier- to' nold'above 39 would' be-constructive–' ' , Gimbel Brothers, Inc. (26), down from a high of 45 earlier this year, has returned to a strong area of potential support. In the mail-order area, Sears, Roebuck&Co. (92),thequalityissueinthegroup, is selling close to its all-time high and distribution so far appears minor. We suspect it may be high for new purchases, however. Further downside risk in Marcor, Inc. (29) appears probable. In the discount field, Vornado, Inc. (23) would appear interesting, especially were it able to break above 30 under im- proved market conditions. Among variety chains, Kresge (S.S.) (88), one of the leaders of the 1970-1971 bull market, appears to be forming a potential top and is probably best avoided for the moment. Wool- worth F. w. (46), on a short-term basis, might return to the support in the low 40's where the stock would appear attractively priced. Dow-Jones Industrial (Noon) 809.94 S&P (Noon) 91. 55 ANTHONY W. TABELL AWTmn DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL NQ statement or elpreS510n of opInion or any other mOiler herein ContOined 1, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, d,reClly or ,dlreClly, an offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The moiler 1 presented merely for the converlencE of the subSCriber Whde we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stotemenlS mude herein Any ocllon to be loen by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own m ….est'gollon and information Janney Montgomefy Scolt, Inc, 0 0 corporal,on, and lIS offIcers or employees, may now have, or may laler Toke, poSitions or trades In re1pect To any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and suen poslhon may be different from any views now or hereofter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any Slolements mode ,n thiS or In any oler Issue Further information on any security mentioned he-rem IS available on request

TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE November 26, 1971 There is an old vaudeville routine, now relegated to well-deserved obscurity, where one member of a – comedy d uo'beginsby'asking' the' otherr-Boyou want'the go.od,news f-i!st-'orthebad newsHrst -. –The- question serves well to introduce a discussion of the present state of the stock market. Let us, then, get the bad news out of the way first. It is that the market is, in our opinion, in all probability headed lower. Now we are as optimism-prone as anybody else and as inclined to find bear markets distasteful, but we have lived through enough of them to realize the hard fact that, once they get underway, there is very little point in glossing over the hard realities of the situation. As we have been suggesting since last July, the market is in the grips of a highly unhealthy supply-demand situation and that situation shows little sign of being immediately resolved. Moreover, the downside momentum that has been building in recent weeks is absolutely typical of the all-too familiar scenario typical of past downswings. The most convincing attempt at a rally took place during the first week of this month and, since that one failed to hold up, the more recent attempts have been unconvincing. This is equally true, at least until mOre evidence becomes available, of the strength shown on Friday morning. If the market is, in fact, headed lower, the next logical question is How much lower. The market has aided us over the past few months in formulating a plausible downside target. In contrast to the situation a few months ago, all of the major averages now present similar distributional patterns. The following table presents the downside objectives based on these patterns for four of the most popular market indices. As can be readily seen from the table, the targets on all of them are roughly 4 to 9 below current levels and show fair consistency among the four indicators. Recent 1st Downside 2nd Downside -;r-.1iPrice.Ob!ective,Change Objective,Change Dow-Jones Industrial Average 798.63770 -3.5 730 -8.6 S&P 42s-Industrial Index 99.57 96 -3.6 95 -4.6 S&P sOO-Stock Index 90.33 — — 86 -4.8 N. Y.S. E. Index 49.67 46.80 -5.8 45 -9.4 Now the good news, although it may not be at first apparent, is contained in the above tabulation. A decline to the area suggested above, while it most assuredly will not be pleasant, is hardly gOing to con- stitute a major disaster. USing the 730 target on the Dow, for example, it is worth noting once again that such a decline could be produced by a drop of 3-7/8 pOints in each of the 30 individual components. This would hardly constitute Armageddon. The present situation, furthermore, is dramatically unlike that of say, 1969-1970. At that point, the existing distributional pattern was highly ambiguous, and it was possible to read any number of downside targets, in addition to the 630 on the Dow, which ultimately turned out to be the Iowa year and a half ago. It was only possible to pinpoint the bottom when the obvious selling climax of May, 1970 quite clearly signalled that something important had, in fact, occurred. By contrast, the distributional patterns exist- ing at the moment lend themselves to only one interpretation and that is the interpretation suggested in the table above. We do not, in short, agree with those forecasters of gloom and doom, who generally get a good press at times like the present, that we are in some sort of a super bear market cycle which is going to carry on to disaster levels. The proponents of this theory are fond of suggesting that 1969-1970 constitutes the largest bear market rally in history. This is like a forecast that the sun is not gOing to rise tomorrow morning. It is a dra- matlc'statement;-almost certainto be widely quoted;but it tends to be somewhat at variance with history. The fact is that there has never been a bear market rally which lasted for II months or moved up 50 as the 1969-1970 advance did. This was a separate market cycle, just as the present downswing, when it ultimately runs its course, will be regarded as such a cycle. Bear markets by their very nature tend to be irrational periods, and, during such periods, a rational assessment of probabilities is the only intelligent course. The investor is now being bombarded with talk of uncertainty as to the economic outlook by many of the same people who were assuring him last summer that that outlook could not be better. The controlling factors at present, however, are not econo- mic but emotional, just as they have been in all downswings in all free markets throughout recorded history. And, as always, the coming bottom, when it arrives, will produce prices that will caUSe many investors later to wonder why they lacked the courage to take advantage of them. 1D0w-Jones Industrial (Noon) 809.94 &P (Noon) 91.28 ' iAWTmn ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or e)l;pression .of opinion or any other moHer herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly. on offer or the sollciiotlOn of on offer to buy or ell any security referred to or mentioned The mOIler IS presented merely for the conveT'lentt of the subscriber. While -lie believe Ihe sources of our Informa tlon to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of Ihe statements mude herem Any action 10 be loken by the subscriber should be bosed on hiS own'mvestlgatlon and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scot!, Inc, as a corporation, and its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake. poSitions or trades 10 respect to any secuTilles mentioned 10 thiS or any future Issue, and such posihon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Inue. Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS regIstered with the SEC as on mvestmenl adVisor, may give odlilce to Its If\eslment adliisory and other cvstomers Independently of any slalemenl1 mode In IhlS or 10 any olher issue FUrlher IOformalion on any seCtmty mentioned herein IS available on requesl

. – ————-,– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER I I I J 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – December 3, 1971 'Ife. g.'.v9Jed.J!ltL!P1!CJ'Lljst.Y!T,ee, t9 discussingtQdackoL convJctjoll,in .alloLJPe .rally. attempts.- prior to last Friday and suggested that, in the light of that unimpressiveness, stock prices could well, over the near term, head lower. Almost as the ink was drying on the page, the market started on a four-day advance of sufficiently overwhelming proportions as to convince even the most skepti- cal that some sort of reversal had occurred. Thus another short-term forecast bites the dust, although, as will be detailed below, we are not yet totally sure whether the forecast has been proven wrong or merely interrupted on its way to fulfillment. In light of last week's action, there are three possible interpretations of the present stock market position. They are as follows I) The present rally cor.stitutes nothing more than an interruption in the context of a larger overall downtrend. If this is the case, we should expect the rally to abort fairly shortly not too far from current levels and in due course to be followed by continued distribution and new lows. 2) The bear market which began in April is not over, but the present rally will be of intermediate term proportions. If this is the case, higher levels are in prospect, with the plausible target for such an advance being somewhere around 880 on the DJIA. Such a rally, since the time has come for the market's normal year-end advance, could well carry until after the first of the year. The 880 level, moreover, is plausible for a number of reasons. First of all it constitutes the first major area of supply which the Dow should encounter on the upside. Secondly, it is the top of the downtrend channel which characterized the market since the April highs and, thirdly, most longer-term moving averages will, by the end of the year, be around this level. . – J ) The bear market endedon.November23and aLnewupsurgeof.rna!orc-clepropOItions..hasbegun., If this scenario is correct, an appropriate period of rebasing, which could last for the next 2-6 months, should be fOllowed by a typical bull market takeoff. Now, obviously, sufficient evidence is not yet in to allow us to choose between the three above interpretations with a high degree of certainty. The strength of last week's rally appears to make the first the least likely. Most intermediate-term oscillators rebounded nicely from their four-week- long deep oversold position. Moreover, breadth actually led the Dow on the upside, a condition typical of the initial rally of intermediate and major bottoms. It, therefore, becomes relatively un- likely that the momentum generated by last week's action will be disapated over the very short term. Th, forecaster's task over the coming weeks, therefore, will, it seems to us, be centered on trying to distinguish between an intermediate-term advance and the preliminary stages 0 f a m a j 0 r rally. ffirein lies a paradox, for we have now reached a point where further short-term strength would probably be less indicative of a healthy technical condition than consolidation or weakness. The market, at the moment, has an insufficient base to suggest much more than a move to the 880 supply area mentioned above. The most meaningful action, therefore, would be a broadening of the base at current levels so that a worthwhile rise could ultimately be projected. There is an unfortunate tendency in looking at stock market history to think in terms of the most recent cycle, and not to look two or three cycles back. The last major market bottom, 1. e., that of May-July, 1970, was, in many ways, dissimilar to previous such reversals. The market staged its initial climactic rally in May. After an advance from.631 to 720, ..it.staged a .small retracemenLin .. early July getting no lower tha;; an intra-day bottom of 665 and, only two months after the lows, started its advance. This is not, we should be reminded, the way most major bottoms have, in the past, formed. In 1966 the initial climax rally from 760 to 822 in August was followed by a move to new lows at 736 in October. Likewise, in 1962, the initial reversal took place in May and was followed in due course by a lower Iowa month later and another equivalent low, six months later, in October. 1957 did not see a new low after the first climax rally, but the low was tested on four sub- sequent occasions over a six-month period before the next advance finally started. What we are suggesting is that there is very little point in concluding that, if last week's strength follows through, the opportunity to buy stocks at attractive levels will be lost forever. Indeed, history suggests that the normal basing process should provide an opportunity to buy them at levels at least as attractive as the present ones, and with a good deal more confidence. Dow-Jones Industrial (Noon) 854.41 S&P (Noon) 96.27 AWTmn ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD , HARVEY , TABELL No statement or expression of optnlon or any olher matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dlrectlv or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitatIon of on offer to buy or sell ony secunty referred to or menlione-i The motter IS presented merely for the conV'erience of the subtlber While oNe believe the sources of our Informo 'Ion to be rehoble, we In no way repren' or guarantee tfle accuracy thereof nor of Ihe slatements mode herein Any action to be taken by the subnber should be based on hiS own inVestigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scali. Inc, as a corporation, Clnd lIS offIcers or employees, may now have, or may latcr tak. posilions or trades In respect 10 any s.eQlflties menhoned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSItion may be different from any VleW5 now or hereofter expressed In thIS or ony other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scalf, Inc. which IS regIstered WIth the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice 10 Its Investment adVISOry and olhel customers ,dependently of any stalements mode In thiS or 1M any other Issue. Further information on ony CUflty mentioned herern IS avmlable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ,,L' , 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE December 10, 1971 Although it was understandably unable to gain further ground in last week's trading, the stock market was almost as impressive marking time as it had been going up. Last Friday's closing high ,of 859.59 on , – -the-Bow-has7a-s-of etht. wrtttng;-'remained-the'high forthe' mbv-e-But -ih-term-S''oI tlleniOre- coinpteliens ive- – measure of market breadth, gaining stocks continued to exceed losers, at least for the first three days of trading during the week. Moreover, repeated attempts to mount downside momentum were beaten back by impressive outbursts of demand. After the advance finally turned down early Monday and gave up some 18 pOints by Tuesday noon, an impressive afternoon rally turned the market up on the day. An attempt to reverse this advance on Wednesday morning was equally unsuccessful, with strength again emerging in post-noon trading. By all measurable standards of breadth, volume, etc., the 10 days ended last Wednesday com par e favorably with similar 10-day periods around major bottoms such as May, 1970, October, 1966, etc. Yet a closer look at market action suggests a few questions, and they will herewith be raised. The market's performance, as we said above, was impressive but in a way it resembled the performanc of a romantic comedy by a 67-year-old ingenue and her 73-year-old leading man — competent and profes- sional beyond doubt, but with a cast of characters that was, to say the least, familiar. The following table is indicative of what we mean. The Dow had been down by 16 between April and November but a whole host of securities, the three we have selected as examples below being typical, had resisted the decline and advanced sharply in the face of a weaker, overall market. Predictably enough, it was these issues which led the parade on the upside demonstrating a much better-than-average advance once the market pressure had been removed. April, 1971 High Nov., 1971 Low Chg. Recent High Chg. Dow-Tones Industrials 950.82 797.97 -16.1 859.59 7.7 – -LCvointszo'lFiudrantietdurFere-ig htways — 38 5-0 – 45 18.4 56 24.4 92 84-0 – ITS — — 14-1.–4— Winnebago Industries 17 – 32 46.9 47 46.8 It may be argued that we have chosen unusually volatile issues for our example but the same argument can be applied with equal force to a host of blue chips as witness the following. Except for the fact that the moves are less wide, the same principle applies. April, 1971 High Nov., 1971 Low Chg. Recent High Chg. Dow-Tones Industrials Eastman Kodak 950.82 86 797.97 82 -16.1 -4.6 859.59 92 7.7 12.1 Proctor & Gamble 62 70 12.9 77 10.0 Sears Roebuck 91 88 -3.2 99 12.5 The stocks mentioned above have undoubtedly moved up for good and sufficient reason and may well continue to do so. But the trouble with this sort of process is that it cannot go on forever. At some point in time the stocks which were totally unaffected by the six-month downswing just ended and which now dominate the expanding new high list are gOing to complete the process of discounting their near- term potential and, if the advance is to be sustained, new leadership will have to be found. Ins pection of existing technical patterns at the end of last week revealed precious little of this sort of new leader- ship emerging. Now we are perfectly willing to admit that'the sort of new leadership necessary for a sustained advance may well develop over the next few months. This, indeed, is precisely what happened in the Summer of 1970 when, over a three-month period, a whole group of market leaders quickly formed impressive base patterns. We are simply pointing out that such development has not occurred to date. We would, further- more, -view the continued domination of the market by-that- miiic'-ritY'of 'is su-es which resisted the down- swing as a less-than-favorable development. The truism that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it is as valid for the stock market as anything else, and two historical periods which we think are pertinent to the present are Tanuary-October, 1960 and December, 1968-Tuly, 1969. Both were declines roughly equal to the present one both in time and amplitude. In both instances a substantial group of issues ignored the decline and advanced or at least held steady throughout the period. Both were followed by rallies, 1960 by the 1961 move which carried the averages to a new high, 1969 by a less dyna- mic move in the averages but one which, nonetheless, featured strong moves in individual stocks con- tinuing to Tanuary, 1970. In both cases, however, the advances were narrow and featured the same familiar cast of issues moving ahead with their strength concealing underlying distribution in the bulk of stocks. Were the same sort of thing again to occur in the present instance, equal caution would be re- quired. Dow-Tones Industrial (Noon) 854.71 ANTHONY W. TABELL S&P (Noon) 97.24 AWTmn DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No sfolemen! or expression of opInion or any other motter herein cantolned IS, or 15 to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe solicitation af .on offer to buy Of sell any security referred to or menlloned. The matter 15 presented merely for Ihe converlence of the subscrober. While we believe the sources of our mfarma tlon 10 be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herem Any aellon 10 be token by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hiS own IOvesllgo1ton and Information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, POSitions or trades m respect to any SeCUrities mentioned on thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSlhon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed on thiS or any other Issue. Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wtllch ' regIStered With the SEC as on onvestment adVisor, may give adVice to Its onvestment adVISOry and olhel customers ,ndependently of any statements made m thiS or m any other Issue Further onformatlon on any security menhoned herem IS available on request

——— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER J – 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE Hey, hey, anybody listening; hey, hey, anybody there December 17, 1971 Hey, hey, anybody listening ; ………….. anybody care CJ1JldtensChrislmgs,song Readers of this letter are aware that it has been our usto;;; to b; to taditt;,n ad- a';h-Dece;;ber , – to attempt to forecast the coming year. They are also aware that we have traditionally divided this fore- cast into two parts, the first part being a review of the year just past, and those factors therein which might bear on the year ahead. We will, therefore, devote this issue to a retrospective look at 1971. The only surprising thing about the year, actually, is that anyone should have been, in the slightest, surprised at what took place. The Dow, it will be recalled, advanced to around 950 at the end of April and spent most of the rest of the year declining. reaching a low of just under 800 at the end of November. The subsequent rally attempt has, so far, carried to around 870. For some reason, however, a great many commentators seemed to expect something different. The week before the April high was reached, the Wall Street Journal carried a front-page story about how it was considered, by most analysts, only a matter of time until the Dow hit 1000. As the weakness set in, incantations about the uncertainties of Phase 2 were muttered, as if the blame for the market's weakness somehow lay in the White House. And dire mutterings about 500, 400 and other ridiculous downside targets for the Dow, silenced during the bull market, again began to be heard. Yet what happened during 1971 was absolutely consistent with a historical pattern which is now more than seven years old. Until Wednesday's and Thursday's rally the Dow had been trading around 860. Let us consider this 860 figure for an instant. It is within 3 of 838.92 which happens to be the market close of December 31, 1970. Interestingly, it is alsQ with 3 of where the market closed September, 1964. During the intervening period, the Dow has never been more than 16 above the 860 level and has only briefly traded more than 15 below it. It has sold a t / or below the 860 level during 48 of the past 88 r-monthsandhasctraded.excLusi-velyabovethat.level.inAO.monthsIn-shott7…l!l7J.-was..simpl-y-a-continuik—t- tion of a market which, on average, has done absolutely nothing for seven long years. .( And nobody listens. The familiar investment rules learned in the environment of the rising markets of the 1950' sand 1960' s continue to be followed. Further strength will undoubtedly produce more rosy pro- jections about 1000 on the Dow. Before making any forecast for 1972, it seems incumbent on us to know why the market has behaved as it did and whether these causal factors can be expected to continue to operate. Of the myriad of numbers possibly having bearing on the subject, we present below five statistical series covering the past six years. The story is interesting. For all of the six years individuals have been heavy sellers of equities. This supply of stock was partially absorbed in the early part of the period by the fact that the public continued to make large mutual fund purchases thus investing in equities indirectly, and the fact that,untIl1968, at least, the net new issues of stock were relatively low. The tide of individual selling in the latter part of the period, however, when coupled with the phenomenal rise in net new Issues and reduced mutual fund purchases could not help but produce pressure on stock prices and indeed did so. Pension funds throughout the period have been a stabilizing force but, as will be dis- cussed next week, may be less so in the future. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1971 E Net New Issues of Common Stock .9 2.4 – .7 4.8 6.6 10.5 Individual Common'Stock Investment -4.7 -6.7 -12.2 -9.7 -4.3 – 6.0 Net Purchases of Mutual Funds 2.6 1. 9 3.0 3.0 1. 6 .5 Pension Fund Common Stock Investment 3.7 4.6 4.7 5.4 4.0 6.0 Net Foreign Common Stock Investment – .3. .7 2.1 1.4.–..6 – .3 Now we will wager that this may be the only forecast published this year which has gotten to the last paragraph without once mentioning the magic word earnings. The reason is, quite simply, that earnings are totally irrelevant to the question of why the market has behaved as it has. The explanation lies in supply-demand forces such as those referred to above. What happens in periods of insufficient demand for common stocks is, quite simply, that the price paid for earnings goes down. This it has been dOing for 10 long years. The peak price for a dollar of Dow earnings was 24.20 in 196L It has dropped to 16.10 in 1962, 13.40 in 1966 and 12.80 in 1970. If the factors outlined above perSist, there is no reason to eJqlect the price of equity earnings to improve markedly in 197L It is the question of the continuance of these factors which will be explored in our forecast next week. DOW-Jones Ind. (1100 a.m.) 872.07 S&P (1100 a.m.llOO.OO ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTmn A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contolned is, or ,s to be deemed to be, directly Of ,ndlrectly. an offer or the 5..ll(ltotlon of on offer to buy or l.ell any security referred 10 or mentioned The mOlter Is presented merely for the conVel'lence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informalion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be boud on his own InYeshgotlon ond information Janney Montgomery ScaN, Inc, as 0 corporal lon, and lIs officers or employees, may now hove, or moy lofer toke, posItions or trades In respect to any s.ecutltles mentioned In thiS or ony future Issue, and wch poSition may be different from any views now or hereofter e)(pressed In thiS or any other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its mvestment adVISOry and othel customers independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentlolled herem IS available all request

,- – — , TABELL'S I MARKET , , , LETTER I ——— — — —- — J eIafo/d, Y&lI' 7ak1/ 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF fiJlnc/I /lun'10mcJ(.y .'/co fm;, MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE December 23, 1971 ,.- . As the time arrives to issue a forecast for 1972 it is important, in order to know where the stock market is l1kely,ta'be' going ;tbknow'wh'ere 'ithas 'been'-'or;Omoreiinjlortantly, 'whV'ifhas been- -, I,' there. We noted in last week's letter that the stock market's journey in 1971 had, indeed, carried it over old ground since present prices are fairly close to the December, 1970 close of 838.92. We suggested moreover that the same had been true for seven long years, the Dow having been at its approximate current level as long ago as September, 1964. In partial explanation of this performance we enumerated a number of supply-demand factors which, we feel, go a long way toward explaining the character of the market since the mid-60's. These factors included heavy public selling of equities throughout the entire period compounded more recently by a reduced level of mutual fund purchases, a heavy increase in net new issues of common stock and reduced foreign buying of U.S. equities. We also suggested that a major stabil- izing force during the period had been continued pension fund equity purchases. Now the market in 1971, under the influence of these factors, spent the year between 800 and 950 on the Dow just as during the prevIous six years, with the same factors operative, it had tended to center around this range. It is, therefore, central to a 1972 forecast to determine whether any of these factors are likely to change radically. Let us examine them individually. It should first be pointed out that the poor maligned John Q. Public has been, essentially, correct in his decision to sell equities over the past six years. He has realized the central fact that, in order to achieve an above-average return in the stock market, it has been absolutely necessary to beat the averages, and he has realized that he is often ill- or,equiooed to do this. He has become well satisfied with record yields available to him either direct- Iy ., .. bonds I via a siiViiigs'-ass, …. .. u.,.,,,,s. 'rf'is . J, v , difficult to visualize his selling proclivities changing very much over the near term. The same reasoning tends to apply to the public's behaVior as a buyer of mutual funds. Net new purchases of funds could well improve as 1972 goes on, but, with the funds cash pOSition at a relatively low level, there should be a tendency on the part of managers to' sterilize this cash inflow at least in the first half of the year. New pension fund purchases should continue to provide a stimulus in 1972, but it should be remembered that a great deal of the growth from this source in the 1960's came from increases in the funds proportion of equities held. There is evidence that this proces s is now diminishing. Insofar as corporate new issues are concerned, the operative factor here has been the need to build liquidity coupled with the relatively high cost of issuing debt. Again the present available evidence suggests a heavy supply of new issues at least for the foreseeable future. Foreign buying could provide one source of short-term strength as international monetary doubts are stilled, but we doubt that this source alone is sufficient to produce a sustained rise. The obvious conclusion then must be that the market is, in 1972, likely to duplicate its 1971 per- formance, 1.e., spend most of its time in the 800-950 range, and we are thus willing to offer this projection as a forecast. Two factors, however, should be noted. The first is that, with any forecast, it is necessary to examine the influences which might cause it to change at some point during the year. If our 800-950 range is to be exceeded on the upside, we think a major reason,wilJ be a drop in interest rates .Lower available.interest rates,c,ouldreduce ' the level of public seiling, stem 'the lvel of new issues as it became cheaper to issue debt, and cuase pension funds to think less about bonds than they have obviously been doing. Strength in bond markets through the end of 1972 could thus, in our opinion, produce a better equity climate than we are now able to foresee. The second factor that should be noted is that 1972 is an election year, and the normal shape for such a year is a flat-to-down market during the first h'alf, followed by higher prices during the second half. Thus, our projected 800-950 range, if it is to be violated, is most likely to be ex- ceeded on the downside in early 1972 and on the upside in the latter part of the year. Dow-Jones Ind. (llOO a.m.) 883.13 S&P (1100 a.m.) 100.89 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTmn WE WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR No statement or expreS1OfI of opmion or cny alher matter here, contOlned IS, or ,s to be deemed to be, directly or ,mhrectly, on offer or the 5OlIe,totlon of on offer 10 buy or seH ony security referred fo or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the conveflen of the subscrIber. WhIle oNe belIeve the sources of our mformo tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guorantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode hereIn Any adlOfl to be toen by the subSCriber should be bosed on tllS own Investlgallon and Information Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os a corporatIon, and 115 offIcers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, poSItIons or trQdes In resped to any 5e1;Ofltles mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, and such posItIon may be d,fferent from ony vIews now or hereafter exprested In thIS or ony other l5ue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 1 regIstered WIth the SEC as on investment adVIsor, moy gIve adVIce to Its Investment adVISOry and othcl custameTl rndependently of any statements mode on thIS or m any other l5ue. Further ,nformatlon on any seCurIty mentIoned herem IS ovollable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGE – December 31, 1971 For some years now, we have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market -to stage a year''enct rally,;,-andlChas-15eelnhe custom of this letter e-acnDecemberto–poifit out— some of the conclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. We have suggest- ed that an exhaustive study of chart patterns since the Dow-Jones Industrial Average first was computed in 1897 indicated that such a rally, however miniscule, invariably had taken place. A number of interes ting facts about the market action of the year end may be noted. (1) – As stated above, an identifiable year-end rally has taken place in every year since 1897. This rally often has been of great magnitude with advances as great as 28 having been recorded. It also, on occasion, has continued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. However, on other occasions, it has been of only a few days' dura- tion, reaching a top extremely early. Thus, in 1960, 1962 and, most recently, in 1970, the rally reached a peak in the first week in January. In 1961, 1964 and 1967, it continued into February or March. In 1971, the rally peak was reached in early February. (2) – There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up, and late in years when the market has been down. In recent upward years, 1959, 1963 and 1967 are examples, the rally commenced from early December. In 1962, 1966 and 1969, it began late in the year. In 1970, a strong year in the second half, the rally began in late November. 1971 action has been indecisive since, although the year was flat, the rally – also began early. \3)- ThelmpDrtanFthin-go-watchin–ConnctiDn- W1thmarkeCacnonlrt-th-eearly montifs– 01 the new year is the low for the previous December. This low has been broken in forty-three years out of the past seventy-one. However, in twenty-five of these forty-three cases, it was broken in January and February. Since 1937, it has never been broken.later than mid-March, with the single exception of 1965. Thus, if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2 1/2 months of the year, chances become good that this low will not be broken. For example, in 1960,1969 and 1970, the December low was broken early in January. In 1961, 1963, 1964 and 1967, and, most recently, 1971, it never was broken. 1965, as noted above, was unusual with the December, 1964 low of 850.19 being broken in June when the Dow reached an intra-day low of 832.74. (4) – In years when the December low has been broken, the subsequent trend has been downward two-thirds of the time. 1960, 1962, 1966 and 1969, of course, are typical cases. Again, 1965 was an exception. 1970, of course, was a down year in the first half. (5) – The magnitude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an advance of 10 or more from the December low has been followed by an upward or neutral market in thirty of the thirty-five years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10 from the December low before an identifiable'correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in twenty-four of the thirty-six years. In 1961, 1963, 1964 and 1971, the year-end rally approximated 10. In 1960, 1962 and 1970; for example, it was less than this figure. — — – – – – – – – – – — (6) – The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year also is important. For example, in eighteen years the rally continued into March or later. In sixteen of these eighteen years the eventual trend was upward. In 1964, the year-end rally continued into March and in 1961, 1963, 1967 and 1971 into February. In the coming year, therefore, the December low of 831.12 is an important point to watch. If the present rally tops out in early January and breaks this low, it would be a strong indication of probable market weakness. A like indication would be failure of the Dow to advance 10, or to approximately 914. On the other hand, if a rally continues into February or March, or reaches above 914, an extension of the upswing might be indicated. Dow-Jones Industrial (300 p.m.) 890.28 S&P (300 p.m.) 101.83 AWTmn ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL l No statement or expressIon of opinion or any other 10 buy or sell ony secunty referred to or menhoned maHer herem The motter IS ccmlmned presented b, or IS to be merely for the deemed to be. cooverlenCti of direCTly or indirectly, the svb!C1lber While on Ne offer or believe Ihe the suorlicCeItsatoiofnouorf on offer mforma- han to be reliable W(l In no way represent or guarantee based on hIS OYm'mvE!1/gotIOll and mfonnoltor'l JOJlJley MthoentogcocmurearcyyStehaet'r,eofncno, roosf the statements 0 corporation, mude herem Any and ,Is officers or achon to be token by the subSCriber should be employees, may now have, or may later toke, poSItions or trades in respect 10 any sccunlies mentioned m Ih,s or ony future Issue, thIS or any other Issue Jonney Montgo;nery Scali, Inc, which is regIstered w,th the and SEC such os on pos,hon ma In …eStment y a be dd d…,sor, f erent from any may gl …e od….c vie e to ws 115 Ino..w.eotrmehnetreaodft..e. lrsorey)apnrdesotheInl cu\stomers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or Inany other Issue further InformollOll on anysecunty mentioned hereIn ISavollQble on requesl