Tabell’s Market Letter – March 01, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 01, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - March 01, 1963
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Walston &Co. Inc .11flllleI S X fll' Y m Ie Stnrk Echal1f1f NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OffICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABflL'S MARKET LETTER March 1, 1963 For the first the stock market chalked up a significant and general decline. The Dow-Jones Industrial average, which had reached a peak of 694. 27 on February 18th, had, by the end of the week, plummeted to an intra-day low of 656. 66. Frida marked the eighth consecutive trading day in which a new intra-day low was made by the in- dustrials. Rails and Utilities showed similar weakness. In the stock market it is necessary not only to get the right answer, but also to ask the right questions. The question being most widely asked this week was, How far Will the decline cmtinue . It was not the right one. It can be answered, of course, with a fair degree of probability. There is no signifi- ca-nt top 'forma tion it'! the-Dow marKet .', indices. There is, furthermore, rather good support around the levels the Dow traded at last December – – roughly between 657 and 642. This support area is close enough to current levels so that any further decline should produce a rather attractive short-term buying op- portunity. However, the major question about stock market action has gone largely unasked — that is, the question of the character of the next rally. It will be helpful perhaps if we take a look at a few salient statistics. The following table shows the Friday close of the Dow-Jones Industrials each week since November, the percent change each week and the weeks' advances and declines. Week Ended Closing Dow-Jones 0/0 Change Advances Declines 10/26/62 11 /2 11/9 11/16 11/23 11/30 12/14 12/21 12/28 1/ 4/ 63 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/21 3/1 569.02 604. 58 616.13 630. 98 644. 87 649. 30 67 . 52 679.71 683.19 679.92 686.07 681. 64 659.72 -6.2 1.9 2.4 1\ c..Af 1. 7 1. 4 O. 1 1.1 0.5 – 0.5 0.9 O. 6 – 3. 2 0 997 1003 448 546 701 1177 974 774 913 745 598 782 524 350 (E) 137 279 214 300 356 ..,……–5-60 – 903 772 562 176 365 529 419 593 732 526 771 1000(E) A close study of the table shows a rather clear picture of a rise at a de- clining rate – – in other words, a loss of momentum. During November, for example, in the initial stages, the percentage rise each week was fairly sharp and around a thousand advan-. ces were normally scored. During December, the market paused, but a goodly number of stocks still advanced, and declines were not too serious. In ;January, the r-ise again reslililed but this time the gains were less sharp than they were in November and, moreover, the num , ber of advances were generally between 700 and 900 ins1;ead of well over a thousand. This week, as can be seen, produced the sharpest weekly decline so far and, although we have been forced to estima te the figures, probably a record number of declining stocks. If the next rally duplicates the momentum of January, there will be, for the time bein little cause for alarm in the stock market picture. If, however, it is accompanied by less vigorous gains, by unimpressive advance-decline figures, and by deteriorarion in other tech- nical indicators, the loss of momentum will then be clearly demonstrable. Such a rally should afford an opportunity to dispose of any unfavorably situated stocks still remaining in the investor's portfolio. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 659.72 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 149.67 ThiS mnrke-t letter IS not. nnlt undCl no clfcum-'lnIlces I' to he contL \led AS, nn fTCI tn I'll 01 n to 1'IIY lillY ''(,1II111C''' 1efcil cd I ht'l eln The lnfrllluhnn 'untamed herem Ib nut ltllllluntcccillq to IICCIIlUCY I nnd the lhel(',r …. IIut nn,1 \\1\'(1'1 11 tv he .n-.t\1I1'1I n…. Il I 1'1l1c-.I'nl,\ t,n by Wnlston & Co. Illc All uf OIl1nlOn Ilte … uhJcl'l to ch,\!.!' Ilhut LltilC & (,(). Inc nn,\ OffICC!'I. nucclol …. StockhIllct-. IIncl Joml)loyee., thereof. lUlcha'lc. sell nncl mny hn\e nn mterest In the secllrltw' mcntwned helem 'fhl' IlIlllket lettel Intende.1 ,lIId plel'lllecl mel ely ,1-' n ..encrnl, mformnl commentary on dllY to dllY Mllrket n(ws Ilnd not as a compi(tc nnllhl A.I,htlnnl IIIfm IIInlLUn \\ dh 1(…..1'1'('1 II) ,111\' erllllll(, 1efel 1(11 to helelll \\ill be furnn,hed uPOn request \\ ,\ ;01

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