Viewing Month: May 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - May 03, 1957
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…- r. Walston &- Co. – -…………… Inc………………… Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE ISwit,..I,od) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM —- TABELL'S MARKET LEnER May 3, 1957 The market has continued ta push ahead into the overhead supply at 47-49 in the Standarp & Poor 500-Stock average.My intermediate term tech- nical indicator has not yet entered overbought territory, although it is closer than it has been in some weeks. \'Jould continue to hold selected issues.as long…as current st.r.ength prevails. Statistics CARRIER CORPORATION , Current Market Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt 4t Cum.Pfd.Stk. 528.40 4.1 48,701,000 208,869 shs. Many forecasts have been published on projected changes in American living patterns over the next twent years. One thing that most of these forecasts have in common is the pre diction that year-round air condi- (50 par) tioning will become more and more a Common Stock 1,692,798 shs. part of our daily life. From Earned Per Share-1956 5.26 Sales-1956 193,194,000 cally nothing in 1946,the air-condi tioning industry expanded sales ta 3 billion in 1956. Further expan- Mkt.Range 1957-54 65 1/4 – 46 3/4 sion to 5 billion is expected in 1 As a participation in this rapid growth,Carrier Corp.appears to be attractive. HUh almost 200 mil-lion of sales in fiscal 1956,u is by far the largest manufacturer of air-conditioning equipment.Through a number ef divisions it is firmly entrenched in all branches of the heating and air conditioning fields, and also manufactures additional types refrigera- tion,cooling and electronic equipment. It is a leader in air-conditioning research and development and has a strong foothold in the export market with a large foreign sales division. Hith an eye to future growth, Carrier has budgeted some 30 million fo expansion over the next three years. Some 10 million of this figure will b spent on research and development. A large part of these funds were raised from a recent offering of 18 million of convertible debentures. Potential dilution involved in this issue -17 on the equity currently outstanding – is small in relation to the return to be realized. The remainder of funds for expansion will probably come out of cash flow and retained earnings. In the fiscal year ended October 31, 1956,Carrier earned 9,369,000 after taxes on sales of 193,194,000. This amounted to 5.26 per share.The fairly low profit margin level stems from highly competitive conditions within the industry which attracted a good number of small producers shortl after the war. This situation is slowly alleviating itself as marginal firm drop out of the business. For example, only 50 firms are now offering room air-conditioners as opposed to over 100 two years ago. As this trend conti- nues,it will make for a more stable price structure. Meanwhile, Carrier is making continued efforts to reduce costs and integrate suppliers. A recent major step in this direction was the proposed merger with Elliott Co., a major supplier to Carrier and a profitable manufacturer in its own right, of steam turbines,diesel and electrical equipment.Based on 1956 earnings, the mergErwhich exchanges 65/100ths O'f a share of Carrier for each outstand ing share of Elliott,would give pro-forma results about equal to those shown by Carrier alone.This,however,does not reflect benefits accrued from acquisition of a major producer of parts used in Carrier products. For 1957,Carrier is budgeting a 20 increase in sales.On this baSiS, with maintained profit margins, earnings for the year ending October 31st could approach the 6.60-6.50 per share level. As of January 31,1957' back- log had reached an all-time high of 89,881,000 and new orders booked are still running ahead of sales.Although need for cash funds will remain large a moderate increase in the 2.40.annual dividend is a possibility. The technical pattern on the stock is outstanding with a possible long term objective of 110 followed by higher levels. Strong support is encountered just -under the current market. The stock is recommended for purchase in long-term growth accounts. EDMUND H. TABELL 1 This mnrkot letter IS not and under no circumstanccs iB to be construed as, un offer to AO!! or a sohcitatiOn to buy any securities rcfcbred to therdn The herein IS not g'uarantcC'd as to accuracy or completeness and the !urnlshmJ1; thcreo! IS not, and undcr no Clrcum;tances IS 0 econr, rue as,11 re resen by ,,alston & Co Inc All e,-preSSiOns of opInion are lIubJect to change without notice Vt'alston & Co, Inc, or any Officer, Director or 61have dn mterest the securltlcs mentIOned herem. Thl'l market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, Informal commentary on ay 0 ny Tar news and not as a complete analYSIS Addllional mformatlOn With respect to any Se.IIr1tle'l referred to herem wlil be furnished upon request Vt N 3 \/

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1957
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r , Wdlston &- Co. Inc. Members New Y01'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Sw;t,Id) OFFICE COASI TO COAST CONNECTEO BY OIP-E.el WIRE. SYSTE.M TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 10, 1957 The action of the stock market since the February lows strengthens the convictions I have held since December, 1955. In my 1956 outlook predic- tion I expressed the opinion that the market would hold in a long sidewise consolidation area for a long time period with extremely selective action within the market with some issues moving sharply higher and others suffer- ing sharp price declines. I envrsioned this trading area would hold within the-confines of 520 high and 430-420 low in the Dow-Jones Industrial averag / (50-40 in the Standard & Poor 500-Stock Index.) The range since January 1956 to date, a period of over sixteen months, has been 524.37 reached in April, 1956 and the low has been 453.07 reached in February of this year. Today's closing level was 498.30. (S & P 500-Stock range – 49.74 August 1956 and 42.39 February 1957. Today's close 46.59). I continue to believe that the market will remain in a trading area for some further period. I believe we are in a consolidating period similar to 1951-1953 which will be followed by an upside breakout that will carry substantially above the 1956 highs. However, the 1951-1953 consolidation area lasted for two years and if we take April, 1956 for the high, (the August,1956 top was practi- cally at the same level in both averages) this market has spent only a year in a consolidating veriod. This hardly seems long enough to justify a rise similar to the 1953-1956 upswing that followed the 1951-1953 consolidation. I believe the chances favor a continuation of this consolidating area at least until early 1958 and possibly early 1959. However, I would change – the outer limits of the range I predicted sixteen months ago. I would raise the lower limit to 450-440 low S & P 500-Stock Index) and the upper limit to 530-540 (50-51 S & P 500-Stock Index). – The action of the since February has been quite impressive, par- ticularly on my breadth-of-the-market studies. Downside volume on my 10- week moving total is at the lowest level since mid-1954 and the longer term 25-week moving total is at the lowest level since early 1956. Advancing volume has not been quite as impressive, but the overall pattern suggestfr that the odds favor the possibility that the lows of the broad consolida- ting area were reached in February. As to the advance that started in February, it would appear that the advance should carry somewhat further. My technical indicator, which gave a buy Signal the day after the February low, has not yet reversed itself. In fact it has not as yet even entered overbought territory. If the advance remains orderly it might be some time before an overbought condition occurs It must be remembered that we are near the period of the traditional summer rise that usually occurs between Memorial Day and labor Day. If it happens this year, it is possible that the averages might vush through the heavy overhead supply and reach a modest new high at 530-540 f50-51 in S & P 500-Stock Index). This type action occurred in the 1951-1953 consolidation. After holding between 254 and 277 from mid-1951, the Dow-Jones Industrials moved to a modest new high at 295.06 early in 1953. (The S & P Index showed a similar pattern. After ranging between 20.69 low and 25.55 high it moved to a new high of 26.99 in early 1953). After this advance, both averages returned to the lower part of the range and completed the consolidating period. It is possible that this action could again take place over the next year or so. It would result in broad widening -of the base area and an advance to VQssibly 800-1000 in the Dow-Jones and 80-90 S & p 500-Stock Index in 1960-1962. – There is one other alternative that the present technical pattern sug- The vattern formed since April, 1956 has an-upside potential of 600-620 Dow-Jones and about 55-59 on the S & P 500-Stock Index. This couId occur if earnings over the next year increase more sharply than now anti- Cipated and the present advance continues without returning to the lower area of the trading range. Internal action of the market must be observed closely when, as and if the market approaches the 1956 highs for a confir- mation of this At the moment, I favor the probability of a further continuation of the 16-month trading range. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. h hlnf 8.ThiS mark LUntllllled et letter herem IS IS n not, Rnd under no Clrcumatnnces ot Iuaranteed ao; to nccurflcy or c IS to ompl be cons eteness trlnuli d t ff fan 0 c r to sell or n soliCitatIOn to buy any securitIes referred to herclIl. The mformllt!on th r r IS not and under TIn CLI cumstunceo; is to be construed no., tI representntlOll e I t n Co Ine or flny Officer Director or Stockholder thereof. may h) hntel Wnlston & C wy es aann dl l lnt eorteasst oai.ncItnohcme. psAleelctlcu(na'ntI(laperlesysSimIlSoenn!AtlodondfeltOdlOplhnnc1urO,CnI!nII, o rm1a'1t mar IOn ' n l WI melei; I-\cnernl, commentary on day to day erecspr elt Ifl) any Se(.l.Ill.tl\!S rd\!rred to herem Will he furnished upon request W -.- J

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1957 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1957 page 2
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1\ ,, Walston &Co.—–Inc. Memben New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADElPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Switwlood) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET LEnER May 17, 1957 BRITISH PETROLEUM CO. LTD. Statistics Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 21 0.399 (1) 1.9 With the Suez crisis over, for the time being, at least, it is perhaps time for the growthminded investor to examine the Funded Debt. Pfd. Stock (;,l Ordinary Stock Units) possibilities in Middle Eastern ;,18,697,400 oil. When these possibilities 12,706,252 s hs. are looked at closely, the result 101,025,568 shs.(2) can be staggerIng. For example, Sales – 1956 '721,633000 Earned Per Share-1956 1.5Q 60 of the world's kr.own oil re serves are now located in the Middle East. These reserves, Mkt. Range 1957-1956 (A.D.R's) 25 3/8 – 13 1/2 three times as extensive as those in the United States, serve a European market which, it is (1) Paid in 1956 in U.S.Funds on A.D.R's Free of British Tax (2) American Depositary Receipts representing 1 share traded on ASE generally agreed, is growing at a rate twice as fast as in the United States market. Furthermor the time may well arrive when th United States itself will be substantially dependent on Middl Brewster Jennings, Board Chairman of SoconyEMasot bcilruOdiel,prpoodiunctetidono.ut Ains Ba. recent speech – The odds against finding another oil province on this earth comparable to that around the Persian Gulf are too great to make such a hope a sound basis for the free world's long range planning. He also pOinted out that oil reserves in the United States and Venezuela were being drawn on five to seven times as fast as those of the Middle East. developmMenidtsd,lebEutasttheernbcarSuidcegwroiwllth, poof tceonutriasel, inahlwearyesntbeinsuthbijsecgt igtoanptiocliptiocoal of oil in the ground cannot be overlooked by the investor. As a participation in Middle Eastern oil growth, the American Depositary Receipts for thE common stock of the British Petroleum Co. Ltd. appear to offer considerable merit. This huge oil enterprise ranks second only to Standard Oil of New Jersey in terms of overall size and is unique among oil investments in that practically all of its production is located in the Middle East. Its Middle Eastern reserves have been estimated to be as high as 30 billion boaurtsrtealnsdoinfgo. il or nearly 300 barrels for each share of common stock now British Petroleum itself is a holding company with the larger part of its production, refining and marketing operations being carried on through subsidiaries. 101 million shares are outstanding with about 58 million shares owned by the British government and 27 million shares owned by Burmah Oil, Ltd. Thus, floating supply is only some 16 million shares. Some 2! million of these shares are represented by American Depositary Receipts traded on the American Stock Exchange. The major part of British Petroleum's prodUction comes from three sources. The first of these is a 50 interest (jointly with Gulf Oil) in the Kuwait Oil Co. Ltd. Kuwait production amounted to 54 million tons of oil in 1956. A 40 interest is owned in the so-called Iranian Consortium which now operates the Iran oil properties since denationalization in 1954. In addition to its interest, British Petroleum also receives a royalty of 10 cents per barrel on all oil produced for the account of other partners and is scheduled to receive some 70 million from the Iranian government over the next ten years in settlement of its claims due to nationalization. The Consortium produced almost 26 million tons of oil in 1956. British Petroleum's third major producing interest is in the Iraq Petroleum Co. Ltd. Its share holding is 23 3/4 and the company produced 21 million tons of oil in 1956. In addition to the above, British Petroleum has numerous producing interests in other parts of the Middle East, in Trinidad, the United Kingdom and Canada. hn tThl!; TYlllrket letter 1'1 not, nnd unller no clrcum'ltnnces IS to he con')trllid LOTlt.nlned hereIn IS not KUdTl,ntcc,j 11; to accurncy or t. e n ofl'hel to thble,.lll oodrfJba1'1tn'nlnOo'lh&tc- lntCantorLl.,ounInndtcoe,rbonuory cuLnrycu8mc,cltlnnnhccc5s IrSeftoerbreedcotnosthreureedmfi.b,T1Ihreepmrcf!o.rcmntaahtwonn nny Officer, DIrector or, Stockhdlder by Wnltnn & C nhUe.H… !'! nIiIllldmnteolt(a'st o. Inc All eprCl!BIOOS of ImI luthm('pletc mcntAlUdnd(i'tui o nearlemm , o 'Jec k rmIaStImOanr WeI t hc1ere!.pec t to any and SecUIltIC merell' liS a J.('neral, Informal comment,lry referre,l to herem \\ III be rut nlshed upon rCCJ\lcst on ay t 0 a'VNraUl '. 1– – -2- The company is also active in refining with ,a total through- put in 1956 of 32.6 million tons, 3 million tons more than 'in 1955. Re- fineries are operated both in the Middle East, the Jnited KingGoOC and on the European Continent. The B. P. Tanker Company, a wtY.'lly I)wned subsidiary, now owns 143 ships totaling more than 2 million dead weight tons and have about 3 million tons of tanker shipping under charter. This has been siad to represent about 10 of the world's tanker tonnage. Products are marketed throughout almost all of Europe, Africa, India and Australia. In 1956, British Petroleum earned roughly 1.54 per ordinary share, up from 1.24 in 1955. Earnings for the first half of 1957 will, of course, be adversely affected by the Suez closing, but should resume their strong growth trend in the latter half of this year. Divi- d3eSn.9ds received cents per by U. S. holders, after British income tax, amounted share. The relatively small yield is due first to to .British income tax payments and, second, to the company's policy of retainin capital g funds investm fo ent r inex1p9a5n6s.ion. A total of 240 million was spent on Due to its dynamic Middle Eastern position, this huge enter- prise is felt to have the best opportunity to partiCipate in the huge growth of world-wine petroleum consumption which is expected to double over the next ten years. These excellent long term growth pros- pects are pa at t1te9r.n w re-enforced with an ou ith an upside objective tostfan2d6i-n3g0. intermediate term There is strong technical support With the addition of British Petroleum to our recommended list, we are recommending the acceptance of profits in Calgary & Edmonton CLaanldgar(y34&), origina Edmonton lly has recommended just about at a price of 16 on February 18,1955. reached its intermediate term object- ive and funds realized from this sale may be invested in British Petroleum. NOTE All dollar figures assume a value of 2.80 for the Pound Sterling. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. AWTamb

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - May 24, 1957
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NEW YORK Walston &Co. – – – – I n c . Members New York Stock Exchange PHILADELPHIA' LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Swawld) OFFICES COA.ST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET LEnER May 24, 1957 After turning somewhat reactionary during the middle of the week, the Standard & Poor 500-Stock Index strengthened on Friday and closed the week at 47.21, a slight gain over the prior week's closing. The market appears to be encountering some difficulty in pushing through the overhead supply which exists at the 47-49 level in the Standard & Poor Index. With little or no change in the market level, my intermediate term technical indicator is still well below overbought territory. At this point two possibilities exist . The first of these is a continued advance which would test the 1956 highs and would carry the oscillator into overbought territory. Based on technical patterns of individual stocks, this action is more probable. a posB1bi'lity-, 0 tion arour.dcurrent or slightly lower levels could result in a center line sell signal. In any case, the resultant signal would be given at a higher level than the buy indication given in February at 43.04 in the Standard & Poor Index. Numerous stocks in our recommended list have acted well since the buy signal was given. AMERICAN CYANAMID (86) reached a high on Friday of 86 5/8, after being recommended on March 1, I957 at a price of 71. Shareholders have recently approved the two-for-one split and the split stock is now trading on a when-issued basis. The original recommendation of American Cyanamid was made on the statistical basis that it was demonstrably cheaper than any of the other major chemical companies. Despite the sharp rise, the stock is still fairly priced in relation to other major chemical equities. The 1957 outlook also appears to be as good or better than that of the other companies in the group. A large part of this is based on ACY's commitment to the profitable ethical drug field. Most drug stocks have, as a matter of fact, performed well in re- cent weeks. In the proprietary drug field, BRISTOL-MYERS (49 1/2), which has been on our recommended list for some time,has shown improved earnings ill the ofirst quarter witoh.l.l vs .,.J\l.O,lilL the 1956 period .-The company is understood' tobe having-good results wHh its new proprietary products in the dandruff removal and laxative fields and sales of Ban, a new deodorant, are surpassing expectations. Earnings for 1957 could reach a minimum of 4.00 and possibly better this figure. Most steel stocks have acted fairly well since the February lows and selected steels continue to be among our favorite media for capital appreciation. CRUCIBLE STEEL (34 3/8) moved ahead last week after being behind the market generally. Part of the market interest in Crucibre stems from its commitment to titanium field. Its subsidiary, Ren- Cru Titanium, jOintly owned with Remington Arms, should show much im- proved earning power in 1957 as compared with a breakeven year in 1956 when the company was affected by E60s1timpeartesshoarfe Crucible's equity in of Crucible. ThiS, strike 1957 s and mechani earnings have cal dif run as fhiciguhltiaess5. 51 of course, is in addition to an esti- – mated 4.00 net from operations this year. dend GENERAL RAILWAY in addition to th eSIGrNeAgLula3r12511/4q) uraercteenrltyly, declared a indicating 251 extra divi- a payout of at least 1.25 this year. Another extra Will, in all probability,be declared later on in the year and full-year payout should reach at least 1.50 on which basis the stock wouldyield for well reach the 3.50 4.00 range and growth will continue with increasing railroad spending on modernization. April HwEiStThER5N1tPaACsIhFIaCre (56 3/4) being e released excellent arned before funds, operating figures for vs. 651 in the like 1956 period. This makes a total of 2.19 earned thus far this year as against 1.81 in 1956. Operating prospects for the balance of the year appear favorable and technical action has recently been improving notice- ably. EDMUND W. TABELL AvlT amb vJALSTON & CO.INC. This market letter l'l not. nnr! under no cIrcumstances IS to he construed ns, an olIer to I\cll or n soliCitation to buy any SCCUTlhcs referred to herem The conlnl11oU herem IB not a to accuracy or and the furnishIng thereof l'l nnt, and under on cIrcumstance' '.8 to I, Vvnlston & Co Inc All of opmlOn nrc subJect to change Without notIce & Co, Inc, or Ilny Officer, Director or toe 0 er CTCO, an mwrcst the SecUrttlC' mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely liS a mfolmnl commentary on day to news und not as n Lompletc analYSIS AdditIOnal information With respect to any sec\lllhes referred to herem will be furnished upon requCt kY –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - May 31, 1957
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Walston &- Co. Inc. Members New YOj'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Sw,hecld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET lEnER May 31, 1957 There is, as yet, no indication of an overbought condition in the general market pattern. My technical gauge which signalled a buy on Februarv 13, the day after the year's low in the averages, has been close to over- pought territory on several occasions, but technical corrections like that earlier in the week have kept the market within bounds. A techni- cal sell signal could be given in either one of two ways. FiIrst, by a sharp advance that would result in an overbought condition. To, accomplish this, the advance would have to carry to at least Poor's 500-Stock Index. Friday'S close was t4h7e.4439.-50Thelev19e5l 6 in Standard & high was 49.74. The second alternative would be a loss of upside momentum which probably would be signalled by a drop below this week's low of i6.29. C49!.42 — The of signal wo'uld have-more sig– nificance than the second. Any generalization about the market is mainly of academic interest, however. The action of individual issues is,of course, much more important. My recommended list for long term appreciation is given below Present Price Price Recom. !Allegheny Ludlum 62 !Amerada Petroleum 139 Bell &CHyaonwaemlild 43 40 Bristol-Myers 51 British Petroleum 22 Corp. 42 Corp. 58 Oil 29 Steel 35 Steel 35 Picher 42 Airlines 39 IF'ane-tBel-Me.ta.llur 59 Wood Machinery 62 pen'l Rwy Signal 32 pulf Oil 148 Hewitt-Robins 37 Ind. 22 'I Nickel Toy Mfg. 112 72 Kennecott Copper 113 )'Jagma Copper 76 )'Jartin, Glenn L. 38 Minerals & Chem.o 29 rat'l Distillers' 28 Natl Gas 56 rorthern Pacific 49 Pan-Amer. World A 15 Panhandle East. 53 Penn-Dixie Cement 34 Pittston Co. 77 oyal McBee 39 perry Rand 22 unraY.Midcont. pylvania Elec. 42 rennessee Corp. 53 Roll Bear 99 nited Airlines 29 IT.S. Steel 66 laelsete&rnTPowanceific 57 28 16 Buy-Hold for long term appreciation. 103 Buy-Hold for 180 potential. 33 Buy-Hold for 54 potential. 42 Is at buying level. Support at 39-37. 33 Hold for long term appreciation. 21 Excellent long term technical pattern. 41 Continued retention is advised 59 24 Buy-Hold for Potential is substanti 37 with p al appreciat ossible lit i4o5n. . 31 Excellent holding for capital gainF.nd yi 29 Buy-Hold for long term appreciation. 22 In buying range. Support at 40-39. 47 Patience required.L/t outlook good. – 51 Hold for long term appreciation. 19 Buy-Hold. Potential 50 for long term. 107 Potential is 160-165 for intermediate tel 25 Is near good support level. 18 BUY-Hold.Excellent long term potential. 90 Buy-Hold. Long term 170 indicated. 23 Has intermediate objective of 80-85. 130 Hold for yield and lit appreciation. 75 Long term potential excellent. 38 Good long term pattern. Support 38-36. 30 Long term pattern good.Patience required. 24 Hold for long term growth. 47 Very good long term pattern. 39 Long term potential of 75. 12 Price action slow.Patience required. 46 Buy-Hold for long term gain. 38 Buy-Hold. At strong support level. 45 Long term objective over 100. 31 Buy-Hold. Excellent lit potential. 24 Patience required.L/t prospects good. . of 34-36. 49 May be slow but lit potential good. 50 Near good support level. Lit growth. 90 BUY-Hold.Excellent near and lit outlook. 39 Patience required.L/t outlook good. 65 Long term potential 90-95. 73 Has reacted sharply.Near support level. 18 Near good support level at 28-27. EDMUND VI. TABELL vlAlSTON & CO. INC. d

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