Viewing Month: February 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1957

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Reprinted from The Commercial and Financial Chronicle Thursday, January 17, 1957 What’s Ahead in the Securities Market by Edmund W. Tabell Director of Institutional Research, Walston & Co. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange. Market analysis maintains major economic trends are favorable, excepting for the wage-price inflation spiral. Notes problems posed by taxation and financing needs. For the 1958 stock market he envisages a wide trading area in 530-430 range fort he Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Stresses need for extreme selectivity, favoring air-conditioning, aircraft, airlines, cement, coal, drug, electrical equipment, machinery, metals, natural gas, oil, and steel groups; comprising defense, labor-saving or wealth-in-the-ground areas. Over the next decade, holds outlook for both business and the market is extremely constructive. Dynamic Forces Enormouse Spending for New Plant and Equipment Financing the Boom The Pressing Tax Problem Interest Rate Rise Inflationary Pressures The Stock Market and Selectivity A more Intelligent Market Extreme Irregularity Possible

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1957

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W—–a–l-s-tIoncn.–&—-C-o. Members N e1V York Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Swit,l,nd) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 8, 1957 The market continued to drift downward on relatively small trading volume all of last week and many stocks were off far more, percentagewise, than the About the only encouraging feature in last week's trading was that my intermediate term indicator, for the first time since May 1956, entered oversold territory, thus putting it in a position to give a fairly strong buy signal. It is, however, not certain that this- will come about before a further decline takes place and it would be ad- visable to adopt a somewhat cautious approach until technical factors indicate a cessation of the decline. A reversal at this juncture, how- ever, would be especially strong it would be the fifth time that the demand area around 460 in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average has been tested. As always, however, the action of individual issues will remain paramount. BRISTOL-MYERS COMPANY Statistics Ipana, Bufferin, Sal Hepatica – Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 44 1.80 4.1 these are household words. They are household words because of a sus- tained formula for corporate growth developed by their Bristol- Funded Debt 13,000,000 Myers. 3.75 Pfd. Stock CommonStock 58,480 shs. 1,539,000 shs. Very simply, Bristol-Myers' formula for proprietary drug promotion Net Per Share-1956-E Net Per Share-1955 is one that requires extensive market, product and consumer research coupled with heavy initial adver- Sales-1956-E Sales-1955 92,000,000 75,700,000 tising expenses promoting new products. These intial outlays are heavy, but they tend to fix the Mkt.Range 1957-55 45 5/8-28 1/4 name of a Bristol-Myers proprietary item in the consumer's mind and thus provide steady sales over a period of many years. As these sales continue, new products are introduced,and the growth trend of Bristol-Myers' overall sales is thereby compounded. This has been the record established by the company over the past few years and there is no reason to believe that it will not continue in the future. In addition to its proprietary drug sales, has a strong position in ethical drugs and appears to be in a position to participate in further expansion of the broad spectrum antibiotic field. An important stake is also held in cosmetics. Among the older Bristol-Myers products which provide a steady sales backlog are Ipana toothpaste, Trushay hand lotion, Sal Hepatica, MinitRub, Vitalis, Mum and Ammens Medicated Powder. Growth in recent years, however, has been achieved through two new developments. Bufferin, an improved version of aspirin, has shown a sharply rising sales trend since it carne on the market in 1948 and COUld, within the next year, become the leading analgesic in term of dollar sales. Ban, a deodorant in a unique roll-on package, was introduced in 1955 following extensive research and development and has.tad an excellent reception. Meanwhile, as the harvest from these items is reaped, other new products are now being readied for introduction. Among these are Theradan, a cure for dandruff; Biogels, a bulk laxative, and Analoze, a completely new type antacid in the Alka-Seltzer- Bromo-Seltzerfield. – -2- The company1s ethical drug division, Bristol Laboratories, Inc., also appears to have an interesting future. Major products of the division are antibiotics,such as tetracycline, penicillin and strev,tomycin. An important new development in this field -is a drug called 'Tetrex which could assert material effect on Bristol-Myers I earning power. Preliminary reports have shown this drug to be far more efficient than old style tetracycline and it may be the most efficient antibiotic yet devellped. Another growing field which Bristol-Myers has just entered is doorto-door cosmetic sales. In 1955, the company acquired Luzier1s, a direct sales cosmetic concern. Bristol-Myers is now in the process of redesign- repackaging Luzier line and increasing promotion. In this ion, it is interesting to note that Avon, the leading company in the doorto-door cosmetic field increased sales four-fold in an eight-year period. Capital for Bristol-Myers expansion has been acquired through the sale of two relatively unprofitable divisions, the Sun Tube Company and the Rubberset Brush Company. Further capital could be raised by possible sale of a large block of American Can Company stock acquired in exchange for Sun Tube. Working capital position is unusually strong and debt relatively small, so that n'o equity dilution appears likely over the next few years. in , The recent yreesaursltls of Bristol-Myersl sales and earnings, formula for growth has been apparent although they have not resulted in a pronounced change in the market valuation of the stock. From 55.5 million in 1953, sales rose to 62.4 million in 1954, 75.7 million in 1955, and should better 90 million this year despite the disposal of Sun Tube and Rubberset. Earnings rose from 1.44 per common share, to 2.12 in 1954, 2.98 in 1955 and should,better 3.50 in 1956. For.1957, under the continued stimulus of rising sales of new products, earnlngs are expected to re'ach a minimum of 4.00 and could progress well beyond this figure in future years. Thus, a company with a sustained growth record is selling at only 12 times 1956 earnings and 11 times anticipated 1957 earnings. The current dividend rate is 1.80 and could also be raised somewhat as earnings continue to improve. The stock yields better than 4 at the current dividend rate. From a technical point of view, the stock has a long term object- ive of 85 with an initial objective somewhere in the 50-55 area. Strong support is encountered at 40-38. The 'stock is recommended for purchase in investment accounts. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. AWTamb ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - February 15, 1957
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Walston &- Co. – – – – I n c . – Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK ' PHILADELPHIA ' LOS ANGELES ' SAN FRANCISCO ' BASLE (Sw,',I.ndl OfFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LETTER February 15, 1957 Share prices rallied sharply after reaching a new low on Tuesday of this week, and my intermediate term technical indicator registered a buy signal as of tonight's close. This buy signal was especially strong as it was the first time Since May that the market had been shaken out sufficiently for my work to indicate that it was in an oversold condition. Just how far any rally will carry is problematical and there is heavy overhead supply around 480-490 in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. As has been outlined before in this letter, expected 1957 action calls for a broad trading -market similar to that seen in-0195 i-and -the!,acticon of. dividual stocks will remain paramount. Issues which appear especially'at- tractive for purchase at this time include Bell & Howell, Bristol-Myers, Champlin Oil, Crucible Steel, General Railway Signal, Eagle Picher and Glenn L. Martin. From time to time this letter has made elementary relative strength computations pointing out the stocks that have managed to post higher price at successive lows in the general market. Tuesday's low in the Dow-Jones Indusprial Average was 453.07 as opposed to a low last November of 460.41. Despite this fact, there were stocks on the New York Stock Exchange which outperformed the market and at their Tuesday's low were 10 or more above their November low. When such favorable relative strength action takes place,it can be oft'en expected to continue through one or more additional market signals. The stocks are listed below ,1 \ Nov. Low 1956 2/12/57 Low Nov. Low. 1956 . 2/12/')7 Low . Nov. Low 1956 Low Aeroquip 16 3/4 22 3/B Detroit Ed. 3/;4 39 Mid. SO 2B I/,4 32 3/,( Amer.Bak. 30 33 Elec.Mus. 234 31/4 Mo.Pac. 35 5/B 39 5/! Amer.Bosch 19 liB 22 1/4 Elliott 2B 3/4 32 3/B Mont.D. 22 l/B 24 3/' Amer.Fgn P 13 liB 271/2 . 'EiPaso-N 15 liB Emerson El -'305(B -Nat-hTh 25 1/2 29 5/B Natomas 7 1/4 5 3/4 8 7 lli/Ef-I—t Amer.Seat 2B 32 Fairbanks 51 3/4 59 Northrop 233;8 27 Amer.Sug. 99 lIB 1/4 Fedders Q 12 13 1/4 Okla.G 36 1/2 40 And.C lay. 36 42 Fed .Pac .El IB 19 7/B Outb' dMM 63 3/4 70 Atlas Corp B 3/B 10 1/4 Fid.Ph.Fire 44 1/4 50 1/2 Pac.F 31 5/B 35 Avco 5 5/B 6 1/2 Foster W' -30 1/2 35 3/4 Para.P 27 5/B 30 11 Bath Iron 49 1/4 56 1/2 Fran.Sug. 10 1/4 12 7/B Peo.GL 153 179 Bendix' 52 5/B Black D. 44 1/4 Bristol M 34 1/2 Bruns.B 3B 1/2 Byers 2B 1/2 . Carrier 49 1/2 Case,J.1. 12 Celanese 13 3/B Chemway 6 5/B Chic.Y.Cab 13 3/4 City Inv. 13 1/2 Col.Br.A 27 3/4 Conso1.El 27 l/B 5/B Cooper B 42 3/B Cuban A.Su IB 1/4 Daystrom 26 1/4 Del Pr.Lt. 40 1/2 59 1/2 50 41 liB 44 35 3/4 55 14 33//44 14 3/4 B 1/2 17 15 3/4 30 5/B 31l 1/2 5/B 54 1/4 22 5/B 31 3/4 44 1/2 Freeport S Bo 3/4 87 3/4 Ranco 15 3/B 17 5 Genl A.Tr 65 7/B 72 1/2 Raytheon 15 1/4 17 Gen1. Dyn. 4B 1/2 56 5/B Rob.Ful. 22 1/2 26 Genl.T & R 47 1/4 68 5/B Royal D 35 liB 39 Georgia Pac 25 1/2 2B l/B Royal Mc 30 33 Gould N.B. 2B 1/2 32 1/4 30 1/4 33 Hamilton W 22 3/4 25 So.Natl G 35 5/B 39 Harbison W 56 1/2 62 Stan.War 13 l/B 16 11 Harshaw Ch Hollander 24 1/4 9 l/B 26 12 5/B 1/4 Starrett 54 Sym.Gou1d 10 liB 63 11 I Ill.Pr. 53 1/2 59 Texas U 36 3/B 39 Intertype 19 l/B 24 liB Underw'd 20 7/B 23 Iowa Pr Lt 24 1/4 27 Union As 5 1/2 6 Tea 45 – -.. 49 l/2-Un;Stk,Yds131/2 14 Kerr 15 3/4 57 1/2 Walker H 64 70 1/2 Magnavox 31 1/2 35 3/B Wayne P 20 3/4 2B 11 Manati S 6 B l/B ' Maracaibo 0 8 1/4 9 3/B AWTamb EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. ThIS mnrk('t lcttc!)' 1'1 not. and under no circumstances IS to he construed us, an offer to sell or n to buy any s('cuntiC'S rderred to herein The anformntlOn contained herein IS not guaranteed as to ac.urncy or completeness and the furnlShlO1'( thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed as, a kby Wul'llon & Co., Inc. All C).llreSSlons of opmion are subJect to change Vilthout notice Walston & Co, Inc., or any Officer, Director or Stockholder thereo ny h\\'c an Interest In the 'fecUrltlcs mentIOned hereIn This market letter JS mtenrlcd and presentel! merely .-1'1 a general, mformal commentary on dar to day and not as a complete Bnalysls Addlhonnl mformatlOn Vilth respect to any securities referred to hcrcln '\\111 be furmshed upon request, . —

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 21, 1957

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 21, 1957

Tabell's Market Letter - February 21, 1957 page 1
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, … .!! ,II' II' , 'If fI' P . . . . CI 'f( ' g g fCf W SI'1' NEW YORK Wdlston &CO.——–Inc. Membe,'s New YOTk Stock Exchange PHILADELPHIA' LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE ISw;'..,I.,dl OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET LEnER February 21, 1957 Although the recent downside penetration of the 500-460 area Signalled a Dow Theory bear market, the decline did not carry too far. Afterreaching a low of 453.07, the average returned to the 500-460 area, reaching a high of 471.22 on Monday, February 18th. The average closed today at 466.93. This action is very similar to that of 1948 when a Dow Theory bear market signal was given by both the industrial and rail averages,but, after a short decline, the market rallied back into the former trading shelf. This is one more confirmation of the theory held by this letter for some time – that the market is in a broad consolidating area similar to 1946-1949 and 1951-1953. The present market has held for over twenty months in the 524-433 area or range of roughly 17 from high to low. This is approximately the same percentage range that characterized both the 1946-1949 and 1951-1953 period. The probability now seems to favor the fact that the market will continue to hold in this range for an indefinite length of time and again underscore the fact that individual stock selecttion will be of paramount'importance. In connection with individual stock selection, it is important to note that individual stocks and industry groups have consistently shown better I'elative strength than the market. A study of the relative price action of all of the 103 industry groups covered by Standard & Poor's weekly averages show that selected issues in forty-four groups have shown ah.ve average action. These industry groups are tabulated below Agricultural Equip. Air-Conditioning Airplane Mfg. Airplane Equip. Amusement Baking Bus Lines Carpet Cement Coal Construction Office Equip. Shipping Drugs-Proprietary Oil Producing Shoe Mfg. Electrical Control Oil Prod.-Canada Steel Elec.& Elec.Equip. Oil Refining Household Equip. Paper Cup Sugar-Cuban Insurance-Fire Photography Sugar Refining Iron Ore – Railroad Equip. Tank Car Machinery-Const. Real Estate Tobacco-Cigarettes Machinery-General Refractory Mat. Tobacco-Cigar Machine Tools Roller Bearings Utilities Natural Gas Shipbuilding Vending Machines COPPERVIELD STEEL COMPANY Statistics Copperweld Steel appears Current Price I't'ridfend- , Current Yield 31 ' 2.00 6.5 to be an outstanding bargain in the specialty steel group, based on future expansion plans which ' do not appear to have been recog- Long Term Debt 8,278,000 nized by the market. The stock, 2.50 3.00 Cum.Pfd.Stock Cum.Pfd.Stock 12,697 shs. 56,906 shs. at current levels around JIJ is fairly priced in relation to 1956 Common Stock 784,910 shs. earnings of 4.08 per share and yields close to 7 on the'2.00 Earned Per Sh.1956 4.08 annual dividend rate 'which is am- Sales-1956 100,500,000 ply covered by earnings. The pre- sent price does not appear to Mkt.Range – 1955-57 33 1/2 – 21 1/4 take into account a possible 50 Convertible into 2 shs. common to 100 increase in earnings over the next six to eighteen months through 1952 which could occur as a result of the company's expansion program. The low price earnings ratio also fails to take into account the improved efficiency status of the company brought about by the above mentioned ex- pansion program. The above fundamentals are supported by an excellent technical pattern. ThiS market letter IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to he construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcltatlOn to buy any securities rderred to herein. The informatIon contailled herein lS not guaranteed as to accuracy or compleWncss and the furmshlll)l thereof 1& not, and under no circumstunccs lS to be construed as, a representatIon by Walston & Co, Inc AJl expre'SlOns of opinion are subJect to change Without notice ,,'alston & Co, Inc, or any Officer, Director or Stockholder thereof. may h.l\'e an mterest in the secuTltuS mentIOned herem ThiS market letter is Intended lind pre'ented merely os II gelleral, lllformal commentary on d.lY to day maret news and not liS a complete analySIS Additional mformatiOn With respect to any SecUlltlCS referred to herem \\111 be furm&hed upon request \VN 301 —— -2- Copperweld's sales can roughly be broken down into four divisions' (1) the Steel division accounting for roughly 50 of sales, (2) the Wire' and Cable division, more than 30, (3) the Ohio Seamless Tool division 15 and (4) the Flexo Wire division, less than 5. As can be seen the above, the Steel division which produces electric furnace quality alloy and carbon steels in semi-finished form is the most important factor in the company's sales mix. It is on this division that a large part of the company's recent expansion has been concentrated and it is from better profit margins in this division that a large part of future expansion of earnings may come. The other major product, copper-covered steel cable, is used extensively the utility and communications fields and continued demand for this product is foreseen. In 1955, Copperweld embarked on a 12 million expansion program. 5 million of the capital required was raiSed by sale of common stock which effected more than a 50 diluticn of the stock outstanding at that time. Additional capital was raised by the sale of notes. Prior to the beginning of this program, the Steel division had melting capacity of 618,000 tons of ingots per year. It could finish, however, only 460,000 net ton ingots per year, thus giving an effective capacity of only 320,000 net tons of finished products. When the expansion program is completed, additional blooming and finishing facilities will enable the company to process its entire melt output, thus giving the Steel division an effective finished product capacity of 460,000 net tons or a 40 final increase. This expansion program is expected to be complete by the third quarter of this year. It is very difficult to assess the precise effect which the expansion program will exert on Copperweld's per share earnings. It is true that an expanded sales base can be looked for – perhaps as high as 120 million as compared with 100 million shown in 1956. However, the most significant effect of the expansion program will be to increase profit margins by further integrating Copperweld's plant and improving operating efficiency. In prior years, Copperweld's operating income as a percent of sales has been unusually low in comparison with most companies in the steel industry. If this could be raised to a pOint only a bit more in line with the industry average, an expansion in earning power to an annual level of between 5.00 and 8.00 per share could easily be seen . Current prices for the stock, which mark it at some 7 1/2 times last year's earnings of 4.08 per share and afford better than a 6 yield on the 2.00 dividend, do not seem to take into account the improved earnings picture and better efficiency which could be brought about by completion of modernization. The favorable fundamental picture is reinforced by an excellent technical pattern which gives the stock an initial objective of 41 followed by a long term 68 with support encountered just under current levels. The stock is being added to our recommended list and is suggested for purchase as a long term repre-' sentation in the steel industry. AWTamb EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC.

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