Viewing Month: October 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - October 03, 1952
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NEW YORK 5, N Y 3S WH Street DIGBY 4-4\41 ro lsion.lloffnl0n &- Good,,'in &/-'''',.J4N.eHt' ckct'ot'u.e' PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 W!Ilnut Street PENNYPACKER 55917 LOS ANGELES 13, CALlF 550 South Spring Street MADISON. 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 TAB ELL'S MARKET LETTER The market has failed to rally above last week's highs and the inter mediate term trend still remains down. From a near term technical point of view, there are two series of pOints to watch. The first series are last ', week's highs of 273.74 on the Dow-Jones industrials and 102.92 on the rails' Ability of the market to move above these levels would indicate that the i'..- probabilities favor a reversal of the downtrend from the August highs of ; 281.47 and 105.55. The second series to watch are the September lows of ;', 267.08 and 96.87. If these levels are penetrated, the technical pattern — ', would take on a rather ominous appearance,particularly if volume increased, sharply pattern on the downside penetration. If that would bear a striking resemblance to occurs the the 1946 ma present rket patt technic ern. Up atl ' now, the industrial average has followed the 1946 pattern quite closely. At' the moment the correlation has carried to a pOint, both in pattern and , timing, comparable to the point reached in 1946 about ten days before the ,', sharp break of some thirty-five points in the industrial average. Regardless of the action of the averages, this letter continues to – stress the extreme selectivity of the market. This action will continue re- ' gardless of whether the averages move up or down. It is difficult for many;; investors and speculators to realize that the motivation behind the market ','-, movements has changed considerably over the years. In the past, the stock market moved more or less as a unit. Today this is not true. A great deal of the buying and selling is concentrated in institutions such as invest- ment trusts, mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and larger individual accounts that are handled by investment counsellors. This type 1';–'.. of buying and selling is not motivated by tips, hunches or emotions. Their !l; ,; judgement may not always be correct, but it is arrived at after consider- S'-, , able research and thought by competent professional analysts. Action is ,', not taken until there is some valid reason for it. That is why many of the -; , erstwhile speculative favorites of the past show little market action. Issue, –, like Pepsi-Cola have done nothing marketWise for the good and sufficient ' ' reason that nothing has happened to cause any great change in the outlook and price. In the past, these issues moved up and down with the gyrations — in the general market. That is why it was possible for the tobacco stocks, for example, to move sharply lower during a period in which the industrial — average advanced from 160 to 280. In the future, it may enable many issues ,', to move ahead despite the fact that the averages may be in a declining or consolidating phase. .,-,' LONG TERM INVESTMENT Despite'the fact tt.at the intermediate term ;, ',-, trend may be down, I continue to advise a 100 invested position in accounts, – concerned mainly with income and longer-term appreciation .Holdings of sound, good quality, dividend paying issues should be retained, particularly when bought at considerably lower price levels. The longer term trend indicates i ultimately higher price levels and good grade issues should continue divi- , dend payments at approximately present rates. Further weakness should pre- ',,' sent buying opportunities in selected issues. r, , At present price levels,AMERICAN TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH represents an i , interesting investment .At 153, the stock yields 5. 8. The pressure of bond !,' conversions has held down the price of the stock but there appears to be a l,i,' , minimum of risk on the downside. The upside potential is good. The stock Iia , ',sold on a 5 yield basis several times in the past. On the present dividendjk, , the stock would yield 5 at 180. In the utility field,PUBLIC SERVICE ELEC- ';;, ,', TflIC & GAS also has attraction. At 26, the stock yields slightly over 6 on t th-e 1.60 dividend. Here again the pressure of conversion of the preferred stock acts as a drag. However, the territory served has experienced consi- ,' ' derable industrial growth and the technical pattern of the stock is attract; e. CAPITAL APPRECIATION I have advised a 75 to 50 liquid position in '' , risk accounts concerned mainly with capital appreciation over a six months \. period. The recent sell-off confirms the advisability of this course of act. ;'ion. However, on further weakness would bring accounts up to 60 invested. ' Consult my list of September 19th. EDMUND W. TABELL Oct-cber 3, 1952 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - October 10, 1952
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, l\To l s ton.lIoffnl0n f. Goodwin' ,—-' ,'–,,, —-'c —7 Z/6'd6;UNZ& CJ,kct-'rbe4 ,( NEW YORK 5, N, Y — 35 WII Street PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street r -', DIGBY 44141 PENNYPACKER 5-5977 , 'I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALif 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9-3232 SAN fRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 2b5 Montgomery Street SUTTER I 1700 .- '7 , , , I The market, as measured by the averages, continues to hold in the ,-', 'trading territory outlined by the September 12 lows of 267.08 in the Dow 'c-'industrials and 96.87 in the rails, and the late September highs of 273.74 ' ',land 102.92. The lows of 268.97 and 99.26 reached earlier this week were , substantially above the support levels and the volume on the decline was ;;,small. This relatively favorable action resulted in a rally that carried , ,to highs of 272.36 and 101.56 on Thursday. The comeback has not been strong ,, '''enough to alter the intermediate downtrend signal i'rom the early August ' ',high of 281.47 and 105.55. The first encouraging signal would be the abil- ,-, ;'ity of the averages to rally above 273.74 and 102.92. This, together with I ;,a pick-up in volume and a reversal of the downtrend signal now in effect Hon the intermediate term indicator, would indicate a reversal of the trend , , ,and a testing c the August highs. None of these three things have happened 'c,' 'as yet.On the bearish side, a decline below 267.08 and 96.87 would confirm , the downtrend already in effect. This would be particularly discouraging c )-1' volume increased sharply on the downside penetration. /, The various averages, more than any time in the past, do not convey', ,'a true picture of what is happening in the market today. Take the Dow-Jones , I 'industrials, for example. At Friday's close of 270.61 they were down only'; ','3.6 from the 281.47 high,- an infinitesimal amount. The same is true of the -, ,various other averages,as noted in the table below ;1 c New York Times Industrials High 1951-192 304.9 Oct.9th Close LOS 294.93 3.2 ,New York Herald-Tribune 100-Stock 152.19 148.10 2.8 ' 'Standard & Poor 90-Stock ,' 202.86 195.10 3.7 ' Of course, the New York Herald-Tribune and Standard & Poor I s aver- , ages are combined averages and include rails also, but the four averages ;,,'all convey the impression that the Market is selling at a price level ',only slightly more than 3 below the highs of 1951-1952. A quite different impression is obtained when the action of indi- i,;vidual issues is observed. Listed below are the twenty-five stocks which head the list of the 50 most popular 1952 mid-year holdings of the invest- ment trusts All of these issues are industrials. Five stocks, two rails ' and three utilities, are left out of the list and the next five indus- ',trials added 1951-52 High 'Amerada 235 ' Std. Oil N. J 85 ,Cont . Oil , \ulf Oil 75 58 Int.Paper ,– Goodrich 56 72 ,Texas Co. 60 ;'Std.Oil Cal. 64 –Gen' 1 Elec. 64 Kennecott , Phillips 92 62 Union Carbide 68 Close 10/10/52 194 75 59 48 49 65 52 53 63 73 55 64 De- crease Hit1951-52 17.4516 Dow Chem.2 11.76 Gen'l Mot. 61 21.33 Std.Ind. 92 17.24 DuPont 102 12.50 Monsanto 109 18.05 West.El. 42 13.33 Mont.Ward 75 17.18 Sears Roe. 60 1.56 Beth Steel 60 20.65 Alum.Ltd. 62 11.02 Skelly 99 16.00 Chrysler 86 Humble 86 Close 10/10/52 41 60 85 87 87 42 57 57 48 49 82 84 68 De- crease , ' 2.38 ;'-', 1.63 ', 18.48 , 14.70 20.18 ,,',' -0- 24.00 5.00 20.00 20.96 17.17 2.32 20.93 –' ,, Remember, this is not just a handpicked list. It is the 25 most popu-' ,lar industrial stocks held by investment trusts on June 30, 1952. Yet, only' ,'six have acted in accordance with the averages. The other 19 have declined 'from 11 to 24. The average decline of the 25 stocks is 13.8 as compared ' ',with slightly more than 3 in the various averages. A 13.8 decline from the, 281.47 high in Dow-Jones industrials would bring the average down to about –', ',243. It appears that 243 would convey a more accurate picture of where the ',';market sta.nds today than 270.67. I have stated in the past that I expected the market to reach 235-220 before the market resunies its broad advance to ,,' much higher levels. In terms of individual stocks, the market is nearer its 0, duwnside objective than would appear from the 270.67 clese in the industrial, a' verage. The 50 most popular stocks is EDMUND W. TABELL ,' I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - October 17, 1952
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Wolston.Hoffluon &- .\'.' ,, , '- ,. , ',,,'- ,,,'. ' , ' , Goodwin,',,'', ' ' ..,', ''0. /' , NEW YORK S, N. Y. 35 Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 ' TABEll'S MARKET lETTER LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON 93232 SUTTER 1,2700 The Dow-Jones industrials broke down below the September 12th support' level of 267.08 to reach a low of 263.33 on Thursday. The rails showed bet-, ter action and, at the week's low of 97.21, succeeded in holding above the September 12th low of 96.87. The sharp decline in the industrials brought ' the short term technical indicator into oversold territory and a buy signal as indicated early Friday. This, of course, applies only to the shorter ' term trend. The intermediate trend indicator has not yet reversed the down-, ward signal given at the August highs. However, as we have noted many times the averages have not shown a true picture of the market. The action of in',' dividual groups and issues is much more important. From a technical view- ' point, there are still quite a few groups that, despite the already sharp ,c' decline, indicate lower levels. Steels, oils, metals, chemicals and possib1y, rubbers, are in this classification and should be avoided. Other groups show much better technical action and should be bought during periods of weakness. , LONG TERM INVESTMENT Despite the fact that the intermediate term trend may be down, I continue to advise a 100 invested position in account concerned mainly with income and longer term appreciation. Holdings of sourid,- , , good quality, dividend paying issues should be retained, particularly when, ,', bought at considerably lower price levels. The longer term trend indicates' ultimately higher price levels and good grade issues should continue divi- , dend payments at approximately present rates. Further weakness should pre- , sent buying opportunities in selected issues , Abbott Lab. (A) Price Bin Range 435- 0 Hall Print. .. 'Allis Chalmers 50 48-45 Joy Mfg. I'Price 16 Bup6n-rRange i 33 33-30 ric; ',, Amer. Chain 28 27-25 Lone Star C. 27 27-25 .. ,' ; ;Amer. Rad. 14 14-13 Lowenstein' 31 30-28 ' , Amer. Seating 20 ',.Amer. Te1ephone(A) 153 20-18 Mkt. Mont. Ward Owens Ill.G. 56 71 60-56 70-65 ' Armstrong Cork Babcock & Wilcox , B1aw Knox ,,'Bucyrus Erie 49 32 16 23 50-48 34-32 17-15 23-22 Pacific Mills Parke Davis Penn.Salt (A) Pfizer 29 42 51 32 31-29 42-40 50-45 32-28 , , BUrlington Mills ,Burroughs Add. ',Celanese , Chain Belt (A) CoL Gas (A) Elliott 15 17 37 33 13 26 16-14 17-16 40-35 35-33 13-12 27-25 Phillips Pete. Shamrock Oil Smith (A.p.) Sylvania El. u.S.Gypsum Western Auto 54 38 33 38 112 50 53-50 36-34 34-32 32-30 110-105 49-46 ', ; CAPITAL APPRECIATION I had advised an invested position of only i– ',' 25 to 50 in accounts concerned mainly with capital appreciation over a ,, , six months period. My letter of September 19th advised raising invested ; , positions to 60 on further weakness into buying ranges in selected issues.-;, Some of these buying ranges were reached during recent weakness. Continue , 40 liquid awaiting further opportunities. Price Buying Range Price Admiral (A) 31 27-25 Hercules Mot. 17 Allegheny Lud. 33 33-28 Interchem. 19 BaIt. & Ohio cuit Mills , ;!.ggs Mfg. 21 20-18 Int. Tel. 18 17 21-19 Mo.Kan.Tex.pf. 66 35 35-34 Minn. St.P. SSM 16 ''0anadian Brew. 17 18-16 Natl.Dist. 20 Carrier (A) 29 27-25 N.Y.Air. (A) 19 Certainteed 13 14-13 Paramount 23 'fChic. East . Ill. 18 17-16 Pittston 27 Chic. Gt.West. 21 20-18 So.Rwy. 68 ,;C1imax Molyb. 36 33-30 Univ. Pict. 13 Col. Broad. 37 33-30 Vanadium 37 ; Dmver Rio Clrande 74 70-65 Warren Petrol. 29 i,Eastern Airlines 23 22-20 Western Air. (A) 10 ,) li''tnsteel 25 24-22 Western Md. 19 Buying Range 18-16 20-18 17-15 58-55 17-15 23-21 20-18 23-21 27-25 60-56 12-11 40-37 28-25 11-10 20-18 'F'erroCorp.(A) 26 28-26 Western Pac. 54 50-46 ',Gr'r';JJS1Y in recoended ltt2 (A) Offered by prospectus only. ' 0 T.hlrvIJlO.lld nol-f ,.epnstrued as an offer or 5Olidtafion of off.rs to buy OIJJlMJlT,ri ftlf'll\ ToTtiml! W.e.hton, Hoffman & Goodwin may f, , ChlWiJlLMfnIbrel.l.il r'melo)fiJll4f the securities mentioned herein. Th. foregoing mate'HJIlW pftredLtJ-dP.N-h' matter of informoStion only. It is based I'- upon Information b.lieyed reliable but not necenarily complete, 1, not ;uaranteeASTOMinaHeFFM'AN'en&d (!tOOOWWependent inqUiry. 1',' /,,,;',' -',.. '''.''-''''''''''' .. C,,', ,,', ','', ,,' –'C, ,- ' c,- ',C', '-', ''C' ',,-,\.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - October 24, 1952
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NEW YORK 5. N. y, 35 Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA. 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 '. TABEll'S MARKET lETTER LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. 550 South Spring Street MADISON 922 SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF. 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 ;;;, The Dow-Jones industrials continued the downtrend to reach a new low ;for the move at 262.60, but the rails held above the September low of 96. , t is about the only favorable technical factor in evidence. The rails in a position to shortly furnish an indication of the nearby trend.If average can rally to 101, it would indicate a probabiLe testing of 105 igh. This would probably mean a rally in the industrial average also, but I Ci.oubt if it can carry above the heavy overhead supply at 270-272. On the' '.;;, r hand a downside penetration of the rail low of September 12th, 96.87, ; ould indicate a further decline to 92.90 and a testing of the 255 support ,level in the industrials. From a technical point of view, the steel stocks have turned in a ther discouraging market performance. In most cases, the stocks in this 8'n,, reached their highs in February, 1951 or over twenty months ago.Sinc time, they have been in a slow downtrend with each successive high be low the preceding high. On ;;;y technical work, the group still indicates erately lower levels. The table below presents this picture. Present 1951 Downside Price High Objective Allegheny Ludlum Armco Steel Bethlehem Steel 32 36 47 52 33-28 51 34-32 60 40-38 Granite City Steel Inland Steel Jones & Laughlin 19 42 21 31 19-16 62 38-35 31 20 National Steel ,.' ',' Republic Steel ;;)nron Steel 44 38 34 56 37-33 49 33-30 50 31 U. S. Steel Vanadium Wheeling Steel Youngstown ';'. 38 47 36 45 34 46 40 59 Reached in 1952 33-30 31-25 40-37 While some of these issues are close to downside objectives,that is part of the story. After these downside objectives have been reached, considerable period of time may be needed to form new base or accumulaion patterns. For example, U.S.Steel spent almost four years in the 21-29 in building up the base pattern that indicated the advance to 47.That why I consider the group relatively unattractive for appreCiation. There are exceptiDns, of course. Vanadium Corp. has an entirely — pattern than the other issues. Actually, this is a specialty 8'bv'''-alloy company. Together with its vanadium mine in Peru,the company a.nd leases uranium ore deposits in Utah and Colorado which are being loped. The technical pattern is good and, in speculative accounts conerned mainly with capital appreciation, I would advise switching out of of the steels in the table above into Vanadium Corporation at present Is. A possible exception to this switching recommendation is Allegheny . The stock is in its downside objective range and has, in the past, up base patterns rather rapidly. Its interest in titanium lends long speculative appeal. For long term investment accounts holding steel stocks, I suggest itching into Allis Chalmers, now around 50. The yield is close to 8 and ings for this farm machinery and electrical equipment stock are holding; well as witness the 5.99 per share for the nine months ended September as compared with 5.85 for the same period last year. Technically,the has already formed a strong base pattern with indications of higher Is. There is strong downside support at' 15. In summary, for capital appreciation accounts, would switch all other teels into Vanadium Corporation or Allegheny Ludlum. In investment accoun switch steels into Allis Chalmers. tober 24, 1952 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This memorandum is not to be construed a lin offer or solicitation of offers to buy or sell any securities. From time to time Walllo Hoff,!an ,& Good,! may have an interest in lome or ell of the leeurities mentioned herein. The foreqoing mll'erial luIS bun pr!piued by. us as ,of! matter of Informa only. It . ba!ed upon information belleyed reHable but not necenaril, complete, h not 'iJuaranleed a accufllt. or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - October 31, 1952
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r, ..—- I NEW YORK 5, N. Y. PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. 35 Wo!IlI Street 1420 Walnut Street DIGBY -4414/ PENNYPACKER 5-5977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ';'-' LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4. CAIF. 2bS Montgomery St;eet\ fSUTTER 1-2700 'The market 'rallied sharply on 'FI'lLday; based.on hopes of a Repub.,. . .icah vlct.brYinlTu'eeday,' s, balloting; . However, except for a possible two r three day flurry, I do not believe that the intermediate trend of the arket will be much changed by the election of either Eisenhower or Steven- en Censidering the present demestic and werld-wide situatien,beth candi- ates will prebably be ferced to pursue appreximately the same pelie'ies ver the next; six months .or a year. During this peried, I expect the market to undergo a slew re-,accumulatien peried in preparatien fer a leng term ad- ance starti.ng prebably in 1954. During this conselidatien .or adjustment . er'l..ed, there will be wide meves in beth directiens in individual stecks nd gl'eups. This peried will present an eppertunity te rearrange pertfelies .n preparatien fer the next advancing phase .of the leng term uptrend. ,In ,;y epinien, a Republican victery next week weuld prebably mean that this dvance weuld be en a seunder and'saner basis beth here and abread. Inci- entally, unlIke 1948, there is a curieus reluctance en the part .of mest . emmentatel's te st!. ck eu.t their necks and definitely predict Tuesday s J results. Here is my persenal epinien – fer what it is werth. I expect isenhewer te be elected by a landsll..de greater than anything since 1936. Among the better grade greups that have declined the mest in recent arkets have been the eth1.cal drugs, metals, e1.ls and chemicals. This has een ferecast fer a leng while en my technical werk. Fer example, in my etter .of February 1, 1952 we said — 'rhe leaders .of the market rise since the July 1951 lew .of 240 .72 have. een the chem1.cals, ethical drugs, metals, .oils and rubbers.. It. weuld ap- . ear that twe ef'these greups, the chemicals and eth1.cal drugs, have reach- d the!r .objectives. They have been unable te meveabeve the September- Octe'ber 1951 highs. The actien .of the rubbers has been uncertain. Seme individual issues Indicate the pessibility .of higher levelS, but mest .of he gre'up have' been unable te meve ahead recently. The .oils and metals have, centirn.ii.d te advance te new highs, but are appreaching their, upside ebject- . lve. All .of these greups are classed as vulnerable. Other vulnerable groups include autemebiles, paper and steels. . It mtgb.t be interestIng te nete the prices .of seme .of the leading' issues in each greup en February 1st, and where these .same issues are sell- ing nine menths later . Dew-Jenes Ind. Ab'bett L2b. Allied Chemical erican Cyanamjd American Smelting er-Ican Zlrc Anacenda erre de Pasce HIes Service ,1iJnax Melybdenum Dow Chemical DuPont ulf Oil ennecett Feb.lst. Oct.3lst 271.68 269.23 64 45 1/2 72 71 1/4 60 53 1/2 50 3/4 40 3/8 24 3/4 17 1/2 52 7/8 39 3/4 56 7/8 36 7/8 108 1/2 92 3/4 34 3/4 34 1/2 36 3/4 38 1/2 88 3/4 85 3/8 . 56 1/2 50 l/4 89 3/8 71 5/8 Feb .lst Oct. 31st !eegehem. ; ii V Mid-Cent.Pete 77 3/4 61 1/2 Mensante Chem. 102 1/4 84 5/8 Parke Davis 54 3/8 41 3/4 Pfizer 40 3/8 32 Phelps Dedge 39 7/8 35 Phillips Pete Pure on St . Jeseph\Lead 52 3/4. 55 65 3/8 61 7/8 50 1/2 36 3//8 Soceny Vacuum 39 3/4 34 1 2 Stand.Oil .of N.J.82 3/8 75 5/8 Unien Carbide 60 1/4 63 3/4 olE, Adjusted for .split. The metals have had the mest severe decline. This greup ceuld still erk semewhat lower, hewever; and censiderable time will be needed te ferm ases. The same applies to steels. Where tax lesses can be taken advanta- eously, weuld switch steels into Vanadium Cerp . .or Allegheny Ludlum. In etals, weuld take tax lesses and switch inte Climax Melybdenum. The .oils lse have declined sharply but indicate 10 or 15 lewer ever theinterme- late term. The .oils with the best technical patterns are Phillips Petre- J&Jl1!l. (54) and Pure Oil (59). Weuld .swltch other .oils inte these two issues. he chemicals still appear vulnerable and would aveid mest .of this greup at resent levels.The paper issues are in the same categery.The rubbers, at resent prices, are the most vulnerable .of all the greups mentlened and Ol.'.ld take preflts on all issues in this greup. The autemebile issues are nly .ones .of the seven greups mentlened thatllave meved .' l;;e;' They appear high en;ugh;but-have net yet fermed distributionaL.teps. Octeber 31',1952 '—– ' E D M l J N D W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN – – –.. -.—''''''-'''' .–'– .–. – – i

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