Viewing Month: July 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1952
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– NEW YORK 5, N, y, PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 15 Wall Street 1420 Walnut Street DIGBY 1-4141 , PENNYPACKER S5917 ,. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER , LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 , At Tuesday I s high of 276,25, the Dow-Jones industrial average was very'' lose to the September high of 277.51 and had practically equalled the an ,uary high of 276.26. Under Dow Theory interpretation a new high in the in- '; '-austrial average would confirm the new high in the rail average first ,eached in March when the 90,82 high of February 1951 was penetrated. A c,onfirmation by the industrials would indicate that the long term advance ,that started in June 1949 is still in effect. If it is attained, how much 'importance should be attached to a new 'high in the industrial average In ';.' my opinion, outside of the ,)ossible temporary psychological effect, a new ;high would have little important significance. As always, the action of individual issues is much more important than the action of the various averages. In fact, if all the stocks in the Dow- , 'qones industrial average had reached their individual highs of 1951-1952 t the same time, the average would have reached a high of over 298. A new bigh in the average at this time would indicate that the possibility of '285-295, but it would not change the potentially vulnerable patterns in in- 'oividual issues. The market patt'ern in the industrial average is almost the 'reverse of that of June, 1949. At that time this letter was extremely bull- l;sh and constantly reiterated the opinion that the market was in a long ran- ,ge buying zone in the 160-170 area. The 160 level had been tested on three separate occasions prior to June, 1949 and was again in,the process of test- 'fng the 160 support level. My opinion expressed at that time was that a ' , , downside penetration would have little significance because if each stock in, the average had reached its low at the same time, the average would have ,told below 150. The important factor was that individual issues 'ad form-' ,ed strong technical patterns. , Returning to the present situation, we find a number of other technicaL factors that appear to work against a broad rise at this stage. Both my ,hort term and intermediate term technical indicators have entered overbough 'territory. The short term indicator gave a sell signal early Wednesday. As yet, there has been no sell signal given on the intermediate term indicator C' 'but further strength in the market over the near term would take this indi- ,, dator deeper into overbought territory. ,,' , Also the moving totals of advancing volume, number of advances and mum-t!, ber f new highs are all below the totals reached in advances of February, ,– '951, of September-October 1951 and of December-January. On the last two occacions, the industrial average reached approximately the same level as ''; the present. This indicates that each successive advance has been led by a –, ',maIler number of issues and that the number of issues doing little market- ,'–wise has been increasing despite the advance in the averages. This is also ' ,evealed by the fact that at the highs of the past week the ten-day total of —j;ssues unchanged in price reached a new high despite the fact that the market was advancing sharply during the same period. -.; –' ' LONG TERM INVESTMENT I continue to advise a 100 invested position in ', iccounts concerned mainly with income and longer term appreciation. However, ' -at this stage of the market pattern, would concentrate holdings in under- alued issues with defensive characteristics. , There are a large number of individual issues that appear to be of goodt, jialue despite the general market. pattern. During periods of price weakness, ' ,the following issues appear interesting for income and long term appreciatiOj merican Radiator – Armstrong Cork Celanese – Joy Manufacturing – Lowensten ontgomery Ward – Pacific Mills – Western Auto Supply. t ', CAPITAL APPRECIATION In risk accounts concerned mainly with capital ap- ipreciation over a six months period, I continue to advise a 50 to 75 liquiS11 ;Position. The market has built a technical pattern that could possibJ,y indi- date a sizable potential top. This by no means is certain but it places the ,market in a very vulnerable position in the event of unfavorable news develoR 'nients. ';' However, there are groups that have already dec lined sharply and appear, fo be i1dr oversold territory. The airline and moving picture groups appear , to be in this category. Also some of the textile issues and other selected '1ssues in various groups. These will be mentioned in subsequent letters. ',' //1 Eml\ffimII This mflmorandum is nol to be construed as an offer or IOfidtalion of offers fo buy or nff any rJult'lvn 1ntlQtqrOsome or aJl of the securities mentioned herein The foregoing materiel has tieen ra ilia Wme fit sn;ewe.fft.on, Hoffman by 1/, t-i'ffiatr'ettI' inlormlltion &IlG..o…o!!dwisinbumeady \!!'.ON'!, po il.formdfcrr'Delieved r.UlIbl. but not necessarily complete, is not gUl'Irllnleed as lIccurJtfh ,IS flONfo&loQ)1!JINl1.rtJ'inqu'ry. '-;', rI 'rft,7!.(','–ijlt!'t 7l- –';, 'Y , F. – ,,, -…- -'C – , – ,', r'o. – – .' ,.;r'.'' – -'-J;!.- 1 — -;- ',',5.' f '. ','-,I'., –; — – – '.' – –''\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - July 11, 1952
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r;'' ,– ) -, , L , I i NEW YORK 5, N. Y i- 35 Wdll Streef r,!. DIGBY 414141 WoIstol1.Hoffnl0n &- Goodwin 4.t''e-…tf c.tr PHILADELPHIA 2, PA /420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55917 LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON '322 SUTTER 1.2700 / t,,', t',-, t L. ' – o' TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – During the past week, 1-, ' Dow-Jones industrials nor the rail/ (were able to reach the July 1st highs of 276.25 and 103.42. Moderately low-,, Ler levels prevailed during most of the period with the industrials declining I,',;to a low of 271. 73 and the rails to 100.42. The Eisenhower victory and hope .-Df a steel strike settlement lifted prices from the lows on Friday. , o,-; For the market to retain a sound technical pattern, any near term de- fi'cline should halt in the 270-268 level. There is support at roughly 270 ' i-'Whldl .is the area of the April high of 270.40 and the June high of 269.92. ,– (,''Secondly, a dec line below 270 in the next four days would bring the short ,, r'term indicator into oversold territory and, thirdly, the uptrend line from ;'!'the May low of'254.70 nOli S';-l' at about 268. Thus, any decline halting at!,- Vroughly 270-268 would m03t likely be followed by another attempt to pene- ,'— Vtrate the 277.51 September peak. A successful breakthrough would indicate 3; ;-.the probability of 285-295 over the intermediate term. However,a break be- (- '-low 268 would definitely put the mark!'t on the defensive and would have l;some rather ominous downside possibilities. It would imply the second fail-;;- iure to break through the overhead resistance and would create a triple top.- ;;,'It would also imply another test of the November and May lows of 254.91 and-, 254.70 but in this case, it would appear doubtful that 255-254 support level ' ;Vlould again hold. A downside penetration would indicate 235 followed by a' r'later 220-200. The 268 level should be watched closely. The compara.ble L'point on the rails is 98. l- LONG TERM INVESTMENT I continue to advise a 100 invested position r, i',;in accounts concerned mainly with income and longer term appreciation. How-f ever, at this stage of the market pattern, would concentrate holdings in f,- undervalued issues with defensive characteristics. ,,- (i- st o c k s Listed should below a now be 7re tw nty is consdered su as es my i n e my ntir recommended e Long Term list. These twenty Investment List. ;- ' ;If held, I council retention. For new purcc1ases would await periods of ;' I', ,moderate price dec line. l- i;'; They are all issues of better to medium grade investment quality. The (—–. ;longer term tec;mical pattern of these issues continues to suggest higher ',- ;pricelevels. In the event of a general market decline, these issues should!' tshow above average market action , ,- ,;' , l-;caftor – 7/11/52 Price 51 16 1951 Earn. 8.19, 2.16 1951 Div.-A 3.50 1.50 Yield 6.9 9.4 1951 – 1952 Range 54 o 17 – 12 ,,–, , r;'Armstrong Cork l',iBlaw Knox LBucyrus Erie – r- Burroughs Add .Machine -Celanese It;''CHoalullmPbriainGtiansg – Joy Manufacturing ; Lone Star Cement – Montgomery Ward 1, – O\ens Illinois -' ;kM6iis v;,;;,-Smith, A. O. t!WSyelsvtaernniaAEutloe ctric SU1)ply 51 17 26 17 42 14 16 4 34 39 36 35 49 5.35 2.55 3.67 1.52 3.56 1.06 2.4'7 b6 t;i .94 3.87 7.00 4.19 7.43 3.10 1.25 2.20 .90 3.00 .90 1.22 i6 tg 2.00 2.00 1. 60 2.00 4.00 6.1 7.4 8.5– 5.3 7.1 6.4 7.7 J tt 5.9 5.1 4.5 5.7 8.2 59 46 20 15 27 – 19 , ,, — 18 – 13 ,F- 5836 — 16 – 12 !, 19 – 15 ;/ – ,y- j'i 49 – 28 ,- 40 – 29 39 – 32 ,,,-' 39 – 23 ,- 54 40 !- A – Inc luding Extras. – Prospectus available on request. ;;,' CAPITAL APPRECIATION In risk accounts concerned mainly with capital r ) appreciation over a six months period, I continue to advise a 50 \0 75 r,; liquid position. The market has built a technical pattern that could poss- I' ';- ibly indicate a sizable potential tOjJ. This by no means is certain but it ,- i'. places the market in a very vulnerable position in the event of unfavorable ;', news developments. A list of recommended issues will be included in next ;'-, i. week I s letter. EDMUND W. TABELL '- 1952; Jll J Y 11. lnSTOj\! HOFFMAj\! & GOODWIj\! TMs memori!lndum 15 not to b. construed illS lin off.r or solic/fallon of offers to bur or self IIIny secutit1es From time to lime Walston, Hoffman a Goodwin may \ have an Intefest in some or all of the securitle, mentioned herein The foret;oin9 material has been prepared by us .!II II mett.r of information only. It Is based -C'' '– '-,- ' — -,' ,s.kI,;y;;u,p;o-nI-nform'',alt'l'otn''bel,i-e-v'-e-d'i'r'eliable but not ncelllm'., completfl', 'S not ;ullranteed ' accurate or Iinal lind is not intended to foredole-Independent inqUiry c —';;——-'-',—–' -' – –. -J

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - July 18, 1952
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-, '1 ; ; , ''',,' ''''';''' Wolston.Hoffn10n &- Goodwin,' –,'-,''–' ',';7- oez;i,J 6 'tMMNe;ZC rJkcprd&f ;,'. ,i;,f,; NEW YORK 5, N. Y PHILADELPHIA 2. PA LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF. );, 35 Wall Street 1420 Walnut Street i'('; DIGBY 4-4141 ;;1', PENN'(PACKER 55'77 (c c; TAB Ell'S MARKET lETTER 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9.3132 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1.2700 r ,.' f-,,' tV I L f; r–. )/'''' ,j,,,' (,-,- if-' t.! I',1/', ,f-,',- ,, , , I (; ,The DOW-Jones Industrial average reached an intra-day high of 278.05 on r\ iWednesday before declining for the balance of the week to a low of 27.1l ,,- jh Friday. The rail average failed to better the early July high of 103.42 ;' d declined below the July 10th low of 100.42 to reach 100.23. The relat- ; yely unfavorable action of the rails and the EmaIl volume of trading at a ;\ ,1me when the indutrial average is at the top of tl'\e ten month t!'ading ,, ange casts considerable doubt on the ability of the market to move higher , ,t this stage. The action of the industrials has created a potential triple \; ;tpp at the September high of 277.51, the January high of 276.26 and this h weeks high of 278.05. The fact that my intermediate term indicator gave a ;,', Sell signal on Friday also suggests caution. The first support level in ',.. the industrials is at 270-268. A decline below that level would indicate a esting of 255-254 support level of November and May. The first support 'o' 'evel i;1 the rails is at 98. A decline below that would indicate a probable ;testing of the main uptrend line at 90. ' ,,'ccounLtOsNG TERM concer INVESTMENT ned mainly I wit continue h income to advise a 100 invested position in and longer term appreciation regard- ', i' tt!;Less of interme'diate trm fluctuations. However, at this stage of the market ;Pattern, would concentrate holdings in undervalued issues with defensive f .haracteristics. Twenty issues of this type were listed in last weeks letter,l, ;',c CAPITAL APPRECIATION In risk accounts concerned mainly with capital i appreciation over a six months period, I continue to advise a 50 to 75 l ;,t,iquid position. The market has built a technical pattern that could poss- '– tbly indicate a Sizable potential top. This by no l7lee.ns is certain but it p'laces the market in a very vulnerable position in the event of unfavorable ',, ews developments. Listed below are ten issues in my recommended list. These ten ;.i'tocks should be considered as my entire Oapital Appreciation List. If held, iJ; counsel retention. For new purchases, would await periods of price decline i-,' r;;' 1951 51-52 r, , '' ,1,; Dividend-A Yield-B Range ', I', , arrier Corporation C'ertain-Teed 1.00 1.00 3.9 6.8 28-1' 18-1 1I,,;' !Eastern Airlines .50 2.2 30-19 Oray Manufacturing nternational Tel.& Tel. Minn. St .Paul & s. S.Marie 1.00 .60 1.00 6.8 3.3 6 .2 r17-10 i' 19-14 ' 21-14 1aramount Pictures Universal Pictures Western Airlines () stern Maryland 2.00 .60 .50 9 5 4.5 fl A – I(;tds' aval;bsOnrsvidend. 33-21 14-9 16-10 29-18 l(ist';,- l -' , \';, July 18, 1952 ; , Dow-Jone s Industrials – 273.90 ;, Dow-Jones Rails 100.60 '7 'y '-, ,/,'\ (i,' – , 1,',- EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ' i,. , t- f– .. , 'I,' ' Z(,' I ,, , ' L rtl( This memorandum i, not to be construed oil an offer or lohdtation of oHeu to buy or sell any seeunli.. From time to time Walston. HoHman & Goodw;n may have an interest in lome or all of the securities mentioned herein The foregoing malerlal has been prepared by us a, II matter of information only. It is b.ned 7,.-'- upon information be!1eved reliable but not nec.euarily complete, is not ;uaranteed liS accurat. or final, and is not intended to foreclose independent inqUiry. -, I – – ''\, ,I, I -, ,,'- , , , , .-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 25, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 25, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - July 25, 1952
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r-.-./ .'. .' -,.,' ,–.—-' Wolston.Hoffl110n &GoodwinT' .',–, —— ,–,' —'Y 't,1,-, , IIf- NEW YORK 5, N. Y. PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. LOS ANGELES '3, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. r',7', 35 Wall Street I!;,' r,; OIGBY 4411 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93232 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 l TABEll'S MARKET lETTER J'' , ,- r— The ten-month trading range between 277.51 and 254.70 in the Dow- –, !- ' d,, Jones industrial average was decisively penetrated on Thursday when an in- '–' 1tf tra-day high of 280.05 was reached. The rails and utilities closely approach- f. ' ed their former highs. .' Ii; I would not attach any great significance to the upside penetration. F;,, At the best it signifies a continuation of the selective markets of the past year with issues with favorable prospects moving higher while others remain II dormant and still others work lower as a result of unfavorable trends of '. ; earnings and outlook. The volume pattern does not indicate a wide upswing at t; this pOint. Not only volume but the number of advancing issues and the num'.' (', ber of new highs has decreased on each rally since February, 1951. At Thurs';.. h day'.s high of 280.05, the industrial average was about 1 above the Septem' 1,- and January highs of 277.51 and 276.26. Yet the great majority of issues are ; below their individual highs reached ten or six months ago. The new highs i-ti e'- the average were largely the result of strength in a relatively small number ;', of issues. The upside penetration by the industrials may result in further' , rise to the 285-295 level but the indications are that such a rise, if it b' occurs, will.be extremely selective. As 2..1ways, the action of individual .-c' ofI issues is more important than the averages. There are a sufficient number ;;' individual issues with vulnerab Ie patterns to sllggest continued caution at . i,;; this stage. , Z' LONG TERM INVESTMENT I continue to advise a 100 invested positiori,' , in accounts concerned majnly with income and longer term appreciation re- ;, gardless of intermediate term fluctuations. However, at this stage of the ' .i, market pattern, would concentrate holdings in undervalued issues with deW; fensive characteristics. Twenty issues of this type were listed in the '; ,,i letter of July 11th. AMERICAN TELEPHONE . & TELEGRAPH () is the world's largest non- ,' governmental commercial enterprise. At Friday's close of 153 7/8, the stock' to, was selling at about its average price for the past ten years. The 9 divi' 1 dent gives a yield of over 5.8. Gross operating revenue has increased frorii ' 1,107 million in 1939 to 3,639 million in 1951. Vast growth continues. '.. ii' Technically, for the past five years, the stock has held in a narrow trading 1/, range between 138 and 163./The present pattern has an initial upside pot en..,; \ tial of 173 followed by a possible price over 200. The jiownside 'potential / i' ap-peaTs-to lte1-lt6-1lhl-wH-h-good-supp.orL,at around -150 ./The stock has reach-;- ;, ed the upside potential several times in the past while paying the 9 divi-, Ie dend. The 1929 high was 310. The 1937 high was 190 and the 1946 high was .,' r' 200. It would appear reasonable to expect that AT.& T. could sell closer \) 'C- to 5 yield basis. The stock would yield 5 at 180. Despite the numerous ; , denials, it is possible that the stock might be split in the future. The ' ' 1'1 fact that there are over 1 millibn shareholders with the vast majority hold,, ;' ing small lots of stock would cppear to make this a feasible operation. A ;'–' ,; 4 for 1 split with the possibility of a 2.25 to 2.50 dividend could move '.' rI, the stock to the 200 level. There is also j;he possibility of a distribqt p..'i(n ' to ;t('c'cholders of the Western Electric subsidiary. American Telephone cortr-,' mon stock appears to offer fair appreciation possibilities together with ex', ;, cellent defensive qualities and a good yield. It is an interesting purchasEr ;', at this stage of the market pattern./It is added to my recommended inves.t- l 0', ment list. I' ,– ;;, CAPITAL APPRECIATION In risk accounts concerned mainly with capittt (,;, appreciation over a six months period, I continue to advise a 50 to 75 !!f; ii-' liquid position. The market has a technical pattern that suggests the possi-.. i-' bility that it is in a distributional phase. There are a large number of in.-, I. dividual issues that appear to be in a vulnerable pOSition in the event of ';' I',' unfavorable news developments and a sizeable portion of capital appreciation' !i; funds should be in liquid form in order to take advantage of possible buy- '. r,(, ing opportunities. . U Offered by prospectus only, I', which is available on request. 6'- EDMUND W. TABEL WALSTON, HOFFMAIj & GOODWIN rI, ' July 25, 1952 I' , ,, This memorandum is not to be corntrued as an offer or lolicitlltion of offers to buy or sell any lecurlties From time to time Waldon, Hoffman & GoodWin may han an interest in lome or all of the securities mentioned herein. The fOfegoHuiI malerial has been prepared by us as a matter of information only It Is based It- upon Information believed reliable but, not necenarily complete, is not ;ulIranteed liS accurate Of fInal, and is not intended to foreclose Independent inqUiry 0.'- . -,/,'7 'J'.;- — ,;.t.',-'—-;.–;- ''. .'—-7 .'-'-.– .,.'- ,li7'—- .–'.,. '.—- —'t .t ;'..-'.'';'—,. 7 – ' -s.-;; '.;' -;-'-,-.,.– .,.- –'- – ….4

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