Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1952

r, ..—- I NEW YORK 5, N. Y. PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. 35 Wo!IlI Street 1420 Walnut Street DIGBY -4414/ PENNYPACKER 5-5977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ';'-' LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4. CAIF. 2bS Montgomery St;eet\ fSUTTER 1-2700 'The market 'rallied sharply on 'FI'lLday; based.on hopes of a Repub.,. . .icah vlct.brYinlTu'eeday,' s, balloting; . However, except for a possible two r three day flurry, I do not believe that the intermediate trend of the arket will be much changed by the election of either Eisenhower or Steven- en Censidering the present demestic and werld-wide situatien,beth candi- ates will prebably be ferced to pursue appreximately the same pelie'ies ver the next; six months .or a year. During this peried, I expect the market to undergo a slew re-,accumulatien peried in preparatien fer a leng term ad- ance starti.ng prebably in 1954. During this conselidatien .or adjustment . er'l..ed, there will be wide meves in beth directiens in individual stecks nd gl'eups. This peried will present an eppertunity te rearrange pertfelies .n preparatien fer the next advancing phase .of the leng term uptrend. ,In ,;y epinien, a Republican victery next week weuld prebably mean that this dvance weuld be en a seunder and'saner basis beth here and abread. Inci- entally, unlIke 1948, there is a curieus reluctance en the part .of mest . emmentatel's te st!. ck eu.t their necks and definitely predict Tuesday s J results. Here is my persenal epinien – fer what it is werth. I expect isenhewer te be elected by a landsll..de greater than anything since 1936. Among the better grade greups that have declined the mest in recent arkets have been the eth1.cal drugs, metals, e1.ls and chemicals. This has een ferecast fer a leng while en my technical werk. Fer example, in my etter .of February 1, 1952 we said — 'rhe leaders .of the market rise since the July 1951 lew .of 240 .72 have. een the chem1.cals, ethical drugs, metals, .oils and rubbers.. It. weuld ap- . ear that twe ef'these greups, the chemicals and eth1.cal drugs, have reach- d the!r .objectives. They have been unable te meveabeve the September- Octe'ber 1951 highs. The actien .of the rubbers has been uncertain. Seme individual issues Indicate the pessibility .of higher levelS, but mest .of he gre'up have' been unable te meve ahead recently. The .oils and metals have, centirn.ii.d te advance te new highs, but are appreaching their, upside ebject- . lve. All .of these greups are classed as vulnerable. Other vulnerable groups include autemebiles, paper and steels. . It mtgb.t be interestIng te nete the prices .of seme .of the leading' issues in each greup en February 1st, and where these .same issues are sell- ing nine menths later . Dew-Jenes Ind. Ab'bett L2b. Allied Chemical erican Cyanamjd American Smelting er-Ican Zlrc Anacenda erre de Pasce HIes Service ,1iJnax Melybdenum Dow Chemical DuPont ulf Oil ennecett Feb.lst. Oct.3lst 271.68 269.23 64 45 1/2 72 71 1/4 60 53 1/2 50 3/4 40 3/8 24 3/4 17 1/2 52 7/8 39 3/4 56 7/8 36 7/8 108 1/2 92 3/4 34 3/4 34 1/2 36 3/4 38 1/2 88 3/4 85 3/8 . 56 1/2 50 l/4 89 3/8 71 5/8 Feb .lst Oct. 31st !eegehem. ; ii V Mid-Cent.Pete 77 3/4 61 1/2 Mensante Chem. 102 1/4 84 5/8 Parke Davis 54 3/8 41 3/4 Pfizer 40 3/8 32 Phelps Dedge 39 7/8 35 Phillips Pete Pure on St . Jeseph\Lead 52 3/4. 55 65 3/8 61 7/8 50 1/2 36 3//8 Soceny Vacuum 39 3/4 34 1 2 Stand.Oil .of N.J.82 3/8 75 5/8 Unien Carbide 60 1/4 63 3/4 olE, Adjusted for .split. The metals have had the mest severe decline. This greup ceuld still erk semewhat lower, hewever; and censiderable time will be needed te ferm ases. The same applies to steels. Where tax lesses can be taken advanta- eously, weuld switch steels into Vanadium Cerp . .or Allegheny Ludlum. In etals, weuld take tax lesses and switch inte Climax Melybdenum. The .oils lse have declined sharply but indicate 10 or 15 lewer ever theinterme- late term. The .oils with the best technical patterns are Phillips Petre- J&Jl1!l. (54) and Pure Oil (59). Weuld .swltch other .oils inte these two issues. he chemicals still appear vulnerable and would aveid mest .of this greup at resent levels.The paper issues are in the same categery.The rubbers, at resent prices, are the most vulnerable .of all the greups mentlened and Ol.'.ld take preflts on all issues in this greup. The autemebile issues are nly .ones .of the seven greups mentlened thatllave meved .' l;;e;' They appear high en;ugh;but-have net yet fermed distributionaL.teps. Octeber 31',1952 '—– ' E D M l J N D W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN – – –.. -.—''''''-'''' .–'– .–. – – i