Viewing Month: June 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 05, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 05, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - June 05, 1945
View Text Version (OCR)

TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION Tuesday's market closed 17ith only fractional changes after a day of rotation of strength from one group to another. In fact, rotation of leadership has been a characteristic of the market since the industrial average reached its high of 169.53 on Thursday, May 31st. The rail average reached its high two days later on June 2nd at 59.37. Since last week the market has seen successive strength in rails, utilities, textiles and steels with Tuesday's market featured by the aircrafts and the oils. Look for a continuation of this type of market with special situations in the foreground rather than the averages. Still advise keeping a portion of trading funds liquid in order to take advantage of technical corrections and moves in individual issues. As for the long term investor, still advise 100 invested position. The longer term trend, subject to correctionary reaction, still points considerably higher. Last week, the aircraft manufacturers were reviewed in this letter as a group that have not, in most cases, sown wide price advances. The group was strong in Tuesday's market. Still believe the technical position of this group is favorable. As outlined in last week's letter, particularly like Aviation Corporation, Bell, Boeing, Consolidated Vultee, Douglas, Lockheed and Republic. issue that appears to be building up a favorable technical pattern is Colt's Patent Fire-Ands, listed on the New York Curb. Tuesday's close was 37 1/2. The 1945 range has been 41 1/4 high and 34 1/2 low. The stock sold at 98 high in 1938 and in recent years the range has been as follows 1944 1943 1942 High 47 1/2 55 1/2 72 1/2 Low 32 1/2 39 49 1/4 Since early in 1944, Colt's has been holding, in a trading range between roughly 41 and … formation has the appearance of an accumulation base. If this were 50, the stock could eventually show sizeable price appreciation. Advise purchase near the lower part of the 41 – 33 or on an upside penetration. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY June 5, 1945 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 168.13 58.48 The opinions expressed in this letter are in the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - June 07, 1945
View Text Version (OCR)

TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION The market continues to hold in a range close to the highs of the year with strength in special issues and groups. Expect a continuation of this type of action with new groups and issues being brought to the fore- ground. Advise a trading attitude for the short term, keeping a portion of funds liquid to advantage of minor price dips. For the long term, technical indications continue to point higher and a 100 invested position is still advised. For new commitments, would confine purchases to issues and groups that have not, as yet, shown wide price advances. The group, mentioned last week, is a case in point. The group, after a long period, begins to show Signs of an important upward move, end though they have advanced considerably since last week, technical indications still point higher. There are a number of other issues with intrinsically bullish technical. that have been at e standstill for a long period of time. In this category is American Cable & Radio. Since reaching a high of 14 in r.lid-19M the stock has held in a trading range between roughly 13 1/2 and 11 for almost a year. The 1945 range is 13 3/8 high end 111/4 low. At Thursday's close of 11 3/4, the stock is still near the twelve month low. The basic pattern is favorable, and while there is no indication of an immediate move, the ultimate price objective, from a technical basis, indicates considerably higher levels. Another issue with a similar technical pattern is Radio-Keith-Orpheum. This stock has spent xl even longer period of time in a narrow trading shelf with a 1944 of 10 3/8 and 7 7/8 and a 1945 high and low of 9 3/4 and 7 7/8. Thursday's close was 9. Still a third issue that has been in the doldrums for an extended period is Farnsworth Television. Thursday's close of 14 3/4 compares with high of 16 1/4 for 1945 and a low of 12 3/4. Here again the technical pattern is favorable. Farnsworth has moved ahead a bit more than the two issues mentioned above with Thursday's close of 14 3/4 being above the 1944 high of 14 3/8 . Purchase is advised. The main element of risk, from a technical viewpoint, in the purchase of these three issues would seem to be in wrong timing. Eventually, higher prices should be seen for of te8se stocks, even though considerable patience may be required. Not having moved ahead, they should not be too vulnerable in the event of temporary price recession in the general market. On the other hand, these market laggards could possibly be on the verge of un important upward move as the technical patterns have already formed the basic groundwork. June 7, 1945 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 167.16 58.89 The expressed in this letter are in the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 11, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 11, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - June 11, 1945
View Text Version (OCR)

TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION Monday's tone was reactionary. The industrial average, at the day's low of 166.09, was down 3.26 points from the May 29th high of 169.35. The minor trend appears to be down and the current correction could carry down to the 165-163 area before a rally. If that level were reached during the week, would advise utilization of a portion of liquid funds for trading purchases. The general market is in e rather uncertain stage at the moment. The only trend which can be judged with any certainty is the major trend which definitely indicates higher levels over the longer term. As mentioned before, the writer expects 230-240 as a minimum objective for the Dow-Jones industrial average, and 168 for the Herald-Tribune average (now around 120). The objective of the New York Times average is rather difficult to calculate, but a figure around 200 (now 122) is a rough estimate. As to the Dow…Jones rail average, the writer originally in 1943, that ultimate objective was the 65-70 area. At last week's high of 60.16, this objective had almost been reached. This calculation had been based on the long accumulation area from the March 1938 low of 18.85 through to 1942. However, it is possible that the entire area between the July 1932 low of 13.16 through to 1942 may be a broad base accumulation area. In that case, levels substantially above 65-70 may be reached. Price objectives on individual rail issue indicate levels considerably higher than current levels. It will be interesting to watch the action of the rails as the 1937 high of 65.08 is approached. It would be entirely logical to expect some resistance little above present levels. this could be followed either by a long resting period or an intermediate correction. But if the 65.08 high is penetrated, the writer would be inclined to change his estimate of the long term objective to considerably higher levels than 65-70. As to the intermediate trend, there is no definite indication of the direction of the next important move. There is no form action that indicates other than a rather broad trading range. There are no count objectives on either the up or side. A period of backing and filling is needed before it will be possible to count price objectives in either direction. There is resistance on the upside in the 175-180 area and at 163-158 on the downside. Thus there is no indication of a wide move in either direction. Rather expect a continuation of a market of special situations rather than a broad market move. The minor trend, as noted before, appears down. However, there is near term support in the 165-163 area. A sharp reaction to this area would trading purchases. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY June 11, 1945 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dew-Jones Rails 166.25 58.74 The opinions expressed in this letter in the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1945
View Text Version (OCR)

TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION The market continues to be highly selective. Both the rail and utility averages reached new highs on Thursday, but the industrials are still more than two points below the high point of the year. However, individual industrial issues have had sharp upswings while the average has done little marketwise. Continue to look for a continuation of this type of action. Would confine purchase to laggard groups that indicate a possibility of catching up with the general list. The aircraft manufacturing stocks have had a sizeable rally since the group was mentioned two weeks ago as technically attractive. The issues that then appeared to have the most favorable patterns are listed below Aviation Corporation Beech Aircraft Bell Aircraft Boeing Airplane Consolidated Vultee Douglas Aircraft Regardless of the rise, retention is still advised. The group may or may not be subject to some profit taking here or at slightly higher levels, but the writer believes the five year downtrend in the group is over and what the group is in a major uptrend. Retain holdings. Last week the writer advised American Cable & Radio, and Radio-Keith-Orpheum as three issues which have done little although the technical patterns are bullish. Two of these were strong and active on Thursday. Farnsworth sold as high as 15 7/8 on Thursday on in creased volume, and American Cable moved up to 12 3/8. Still advise retention and purchase. EDMUND W TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY June 14, 1945 Closing Dow-Jones Dow-Jones Rails The opinions expressed in this letter are in the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 18, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 18, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - June 18, 1945
View Text Version (OCR)

TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION Monday's market a bit tired. Sharp runups in some of the more speculative rail equities failed to shake the industrial leaders out of their lethargy. It has been almost three weeks since' the industrial average reached its top of 169.35 on May 29th. Since that time both the rails and utilities made successive new highs, but the average at Monday's close of 166.94 was still almost 2 1/2 points below its high. This lack of confirmation by the industrial average has caused considerable bearish opinion not only among technicians but also among the market advisory services, most of whom are advocating a very cautious attitude for the near term. In the writer's opinion, possibly too stress has been put on the action of the averages rather than on action of individual stocks. After the averages represent only a small number of higher grade stocks and while they have made little progress of late, there have been many other issues that have shown substantial gains. As to the possibility of a sharp break in the. market, that possibility is always present, particularly if some unexpected news should break suddenly. However, there is nothing in the technical pattern, as yet, to indicate more than a normal correctionary move. There is support in the industrial average starting at the 164 area and down to 158. A reaction of that scope would only be of normal proportions and could occur at any time or could occur after the industrial average has reached a higher level, possibly in the 172-175 range. Advice remains the same. Long term traders should remain 100 invested. There is nothing in tile technical pattern that suggests a decline drastic enough to warrant disturbing long term holdings. As to shorter term trading, continue to advise a partially liquid position with new commitments limited to issues and groups that have not yet had sharp price advances. Favor aircraft manufacturers, steels, oils and some of the individual issues recently mentioned. Advise temporary profit-taking on two recommended issues. Delaware Lackawanna & Western, recommended at 10, reached a high of 16 1/4 on Monday and closed at 15 1/2. Advise taking profits in hope of picking it up again on soft spots. Also advise taking a profit of on four points on Western Union, advised at 44 3/4, with a closing of 49 on Monday. The record on completed trades since the first of the year is now – Number of trades 68 Number of gains 66 Number of losses 2 Points profit 381 1/8 Points loss 3/4 June 18, 1945 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials 166.94 Dow-Jones Rails 61.72' The opinions expressed in this letter are in the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

Download PDF