Viewing Month: January 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 04, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 04, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - January 04, 1945
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January 4, 1945 TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION The market reached new high territory on Thursday with all three averages hitting peak prices for the move. The advance, which started from last Wednesday's lows, has been paced by the two laggard groups, the steels and the coppers. The momentum of the rise has been extremely rapid with the industrial average showing a gain of 7.07 points in last six trading days, while the rails have advanced 3.01 points in a like period. The writer, in the past, has used a technical market indicator that has been extremely accurate in forecasting buying and selling points in the intermediate market swings. Today this indicator signalled a sell indication, the first such signal in a long time. However, in the past the signals have usually been a bit premature and have occurred before the actual high or low was reached. In addition, it must be borne in-mind thn.t it is a purely mechanical device and the fact that it has worked well in the past is no indication of its future performance. However, there are other indications that the market may be temporarily near a top. The various market averages built up base formations in the consolidating period of late 1943 and early 1944. The base count indications set up during that period have in most cases been reached. For example, the count on the Dow-Jones industrial average was 153-156. This compares today's high of 155. The count on the New York Times combined average indicates 105-109. Present prices are around 108. While the rail average indicates a long term 65-70, the advance has been rapid in the past month and a technical correction may be overdue. While the present, with its many diverse trends, may be an unfortunate time to be thinking in terms of a market average rather than in terms of individual stocks, the weight of technical evidence suggests that a selling attitude should now be taken with the ultimate objective of assuming a sideline trading position in the hope of reacquiring selected issues on price dips. This advice is given on a shorter term basis and signifies no change in the writer's long term bullish opinion. Suggest lightening trading accounts to a 50 liquid position. The writer has recommended 53 issues for intermediate term trading purposes. Profittaking is advised on the 28 issues enumerated below. The remaining 25 issues are to be retained. Their formations suggest either the possibility of further appreciated or nearby support levels. It may take a week or two before the market completes its top formation. Such a period is usually accompanied by considerable irregularity and wide price gyrations in individual issues. Strength in issues held should be used for liquidation. The opinions expressed in this letter are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 08, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 08, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - January 08, 1945
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TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION January 8, 1945 The market, after a two day reaction, rallied strongly today led by the rails, oils, sugars, steels and distilling issues. The decisively penetrated last week's high of 50.21 to reach a high of 50.95 today, while the industrials just about equalled last week's high of 155.02 by reaching 155.04 today. As the writer told you in his letter of last Thursday, the market may spend a week or two in this area with individual issues having wide price gyrations. The really important point on the industrial average is the 158.98 high which marked the 1938-1939 top of the industrials. If that high is passed, the industrial average will be in the same position as the rail average when; it passed its comparable 1938-1939 high of 36.70 in July of 1943. At that point, the rails indicated a long term uptrend and an eventual indication to 65-70. If industrials penetrate the 1938-1939 high of 158.98, they also would signal a long term uptrend and an eventual price objective in the 230-240 range. However, until the penetration occurs, a certain amount of caution is necessary. The momentum of the advance has been rapid and the price objectives outlined by the accumulation bases have just about been reached. It would seem a prudent policy to lighten trading accounts on strength with the objective of repurchasing on price dips or on as of the 158.98 high. Last week, the advised taking trading profits on 28 of the 52 recommended issues -and the retention of the remaining 24 issues, thus assuming a 50 liquid trading position. At Thursday's close, the 28 issues sold, all showed a profit to total 182 7/8 points, or an average of 6 1/2 points on each issue. The list of the 24 remaining issues held is printed below. Retention is advised. Price Recommended Monday's Close Alleghany Ludlum Allied Stores American Chain & Cable Anaconda Copper Bethlehem Steel Bucyrus Erie Budd Manufacturing California Campbell, Wyant Carpenter Steel Colorado Fuel &Iron Columbia Pictures Engle Picher Lead Engineers Public S Interstate Dept. Stores Jones & Laughlin Kennecott Copper Poor & Co. B Pressed Steel Car Radio-Keith-Orpheum Republic Steel U. S. Steel Western Union A Youngstown Sheet & Tube 27 20 7/8 25 28 1/4 6/. 3/4 13 1/2 10 1/2 27 3/4 19 3/ 33 24 5/8 18 1/2 .14 15 7/8 17 1/2 26 3/4 36 3/8 12 3/4 17 1/2 9 19 5/8 6C 44 3/4 37 3/4 29 1/1. 21 7/8 27 3/8 30 7/8 70 13 3/8 10 1/2 28 3/8 21 1/4 33 1/4 24 3/4 2l 1/8 14 1/4 16 1/2 18 3/4 29 5/8 38 1/4 13 17 3/4 9 1/4 21 62 1/2, 45 1/2 42 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions expressed in this letter are in the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1945
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January 12, 1945 TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION , While the market moved ahead into new high territory during the week, it seems to be running into increased resistance. 'For example, the rise from the December 27th 101'1 of 147.93 to the January 4th high of 155.00, a rise of 7.07 paints, was accomplished in six trading days (including one Saturday) with an average daily gain of 1.18 points. After a two day dip to 153.19, the four day rally carried to a high of 156.68 on Thursday, a rise of 2.99 points in four trading days, or an average daily gain of .73. Furthermore, the volume has increased on the latest advance with a turnover of over 6,500,000 shares from Tuesday to Thursday on an advance of only one point for the three days, or an average advance of .33 on an average turnover of approximately 2,260,000 shares. The rails also seemed to have lost e. bit of their momentum with the rail average reaching their intra-day high of 51.35 on Tuesday – two days before the industrials reached their high on Thursday. These two indications, together with the fact that the base indications on most averages (though not necessarily on individual stocks) have been about reached, leads the writer to believe that the greater part of the short term advance already been seen. '1ihile the market, especially special situations, may continue to advance for a short period, still advise lightening trading commitments to a 50 liquid position. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions expressed in this are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 15, 1945

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 15, 1945

Tabell's Market Letter - January 15, 1945
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January 15, 1945 TECHNICAL MARKET ACTION In letter dated December 2nd, the writer discussed the technical outlook for the market in terms of the major trend and the intermediate trend. At that time he stated that the trend of the market was favorable end substantially higher levels were indicated over the long term. Regarding the intermediate trend, his opinion was that if the industrial average (then 147 1/2) penetrated the July high of 150.88, the rally would carry to the 153 – 156 area. The July high was penetrated in mid-December and last week the average reached a closing high of 155.85. At this stage of the market it seems appropriate to again discuss the technical outlook. As to the major trend, the writer continues to look for substantially higher prices over the longer term. The rails signaled a long term uptrend in July, 1943, when the 36 level in the Dow-Jones rail average was penetrated. The ultimate price objective is the 65 70 range, in comparison with present levels around 50. While the Dow-Jones industrial average will not definitely signal a long term uptrend until the 1938 high of 158.98 is passed, the technical patterns of individual issues leads the writer to believe that such a penetration will eventually occur. The main question is whether or not it will happen over the near term or at the later date. The passing of the 1938 high would signal a long term uptrend to the 230 240 area, in comparison with levels around 155. The 1937 high was 195.59 and the 1929 high was 386.10. The New York Times 50 stock average, now 109, has a similar pattern. Its penetration point is 116. The penetration would signal a long term advance to an area midway between the 1937 high of 143 and the 1929 high of 311. However, the Herald-Tribune 100 stock average has already passed its 1938-1939 high of 110 and is now at 114. This average signals a long term advance to 168 170, in comparison with a 1937 top of 132 and a 1929 high of 208. The penetration of this average substantiates the belief that the other averages will eventually confirm this bullish pattern. Thus, the long term investor who is not concerned with the intermediate fluctuations of the market, should now be 100 invested and should remain so. As for the intermediate trend, the question is whether or not the 158.98 level on the industrial average is to be penetrated now or at a later date after a reaction or a consolidating phase or a combination of both. To successfully penetrate the 158.98 level would require a continuation of heavy volume to absorb the heavy supply of offerings of the 156 158 range. Once through that area, the average could easily continue to the 164 167 zone. However, the fact that the base count indications have already been reached on the Dow-Jones industrial average and the New York Times average, leads the writer to believe that it may require some time before the overhead resistance is penetrated and that lower prices may be seen before the advance is resumed. With the thought in mind, he has advised a 50 liquid position in intermediate trading accounts. That advice still holds. As for the minor trend, the writer has never found a reliable indicator to forecast the day to day or ever weekly fluctuations of the market. At the moment, the minor trend seems to be down. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions expressed in this letter are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are nto presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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