Tabell’s Market Letter – December 20, 1991

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 20, 1991

Tabell's Market Letter - December 20, 1991
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TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEM8ER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES OEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 – December 20, 1991 – At rhf..-tart nLthisye;ar -the..stockmarke0lacLalreadybegan itsremarkable-rebound .. ,The Dow Jones-Industnal… — l- – Average from the October 11, 1990 low of 2365.10 has advanced to date a very respectable 30. II posting a recent alltime closing hIgh of 3077.15 on October 18, 1991. Since the recent October high the stock market has once agam paused. after posting a 200 point retreat. leaving investors with the uncomfortable task of dealing with an uncertain stock market that is asking some difficult short-term questlons–Is the 6.93 decline since the October high in the DJiA over If so, will the DJiA be able to break through Its old Iugh of 3077.15, made just 43 trading days ago on October II If not, and perhaps most important, will the DJIA finally penetrate the 2840 level, the bottom of the trading range in which the DJiA has stubbornly stuck since February The correct answer to the above questions may be found by examining the recent market change, Often a market cbange is accompanied by shifts in sector and group leaderslup, and there are indications that these sbifts are in fact gradually taking place. The table below compares the period from January 1991 to date witb tbe most recent eight week cbanges for S&P industrial groups as of tbis Wednesday The start of tbe eigbt week period is coincident with the DJiA record October higb of 3077 15. The figures on tbe left show the 30 best-performing groups out of a total of 95 from January 1991 to date and is ranked in that order. The table on the right is ranked on eight week changes and shows the best performing groups for tbat period. S&P INDUSTRY GROUP PRICE 1 CHANGES P&RCENTAGB CB1lNGES FOR Dec 18 1991 FROM Oct 16 1991 FROM Jan 2 1991 GROUP NAMB JlAN1I t CHG. RANX t CHG SOFT DRINKS 1 16.529 15 48.S57 TOYS 2 15.454 2 10' 696 HOUSEWARES 3 11.835 5 67 530 l HEALTH CAR.E-MISC RETAIL. SPECIALTY-APPAREL , 11.71.6 5 10 466 9 53.995 3 86.BB4 cs …,.,,, li..,.,,;;!;!i FOODS MOLTI-LINB INSURANCE HOMB BUILDINti HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS HEALTH CARBCOHPQSITB MBDICAL PRODUCTS &. SUPPLIES LIFE INSURANClt HEALTH CARE-DIVBRSIPIED PROPEltTY-CASUALrI'Y INSURANCE SHOES POLLUTION CONTROL COloIroNICATION EQUIP/MFRS BLECTRONICS'DEFENSB GENERAL MKRCKANDISB CHAINS BBVERAGES ALCOHOLIC TELEPHONB (NECK) ADTO PARTS-APTKR MJWtBT INSURANCE BROItERS SLBCTRIC COMPANIES RETAIL STOUS(DROG) RESTAURANTS MACHINE TOOLS OFFICE EQUIPMENT &. SUPPLIES 8 6.904 9 6.846 10 6.490 n 6.316 1.2 6.176 13 5.977 14 5.705 15 5.662 16 5.572 17 5.241 18 5.075 19 4.036 20 3.825 21 3.724 22 3.'21 23 2.804 24 2.348 25 2.284 26 2.274 21 2.150 28 0.746 29 0.608 30 -0.781 30 340.729 48 18 591 25 39.747 72 5.015 26 39 156 16 4814040 36 28.207 31 34 363 63 10.804 4 83.176 66 7.540 18 47366 41 24 703 7 56.397 340 29.965 81 -2.307 6 56.699 84 2.818 56 15.966 42 23.581 35 29.1401 80 -1.145 20 44.922 S&P INDUSTRY GROUP PRICE , CIlANGES PERCENTAGE CHANGES FOR. Dec 18 1991 FROM Oct 16 1991 FROM Jan 2 1991 GROUP rwm RANIt CHG. RANK t CHG. SROJERAGB FIRMS 50 4 662 1 ll1.215 TOYS. 2 15 454 2 104.696 RB'l'AIL SPECIALTY-APPAREL 5 10.4066 3 86.884 SHOBS 17 5.2401. 4 83.176 HOOSBWARBS 3 ll.835 5 67 530 –..-.i-;-..,-,-; mJOR RBGIONAL BANXS HEALTH CARB-MISC ELECTRONICS INSTROHBN'l'ATION RAILROADS CONTAINER PAPBR CONTAINER MBTAL &. GLASS SOPT DRINKS MEDICAL PRODOCTS Ii SUPPLIBS DRUGS CATION EQUIP/MPRS COSMETICS OFFICE BOUIPMBNT SUPPLIES TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. RETAIL S1'QRBS COMPOSITB WaS (COMPOSITE) MANUPAC.l'CRED HOUSING HOM! BUILDING HEALTH CARE-COMPOSITE GAMING COMPANIES TOBACCO RETAIL SPECIALTY FOODS KEAL'I'H CARE-DIVERSIFIED 52 -4.969 4 11.716 40 -2.965 49 -4.6ll 69 -10.508 51 '4.740 1 16.529 13 5.977 7 7.971 19 4.036 6 10.145 31 -0.781 45 -4.019 32 '0.830 6B -10216 61 9.755 10 6.490 12 6.176 56 -6.175 34 1.396 57 -6324 8 6904 15 5.662 8 56.307 9 53 995 10 50.840 11 50.701 12 '9 517 13 49.067 14 48.857 15 48.1U 16 47.9401. 17 47.366 18 45.312 19 44.922 20 44.630 21 43.533 22 41.547 23 39.802 24 39.747 25 39.156 26 38.840 27 37.861 28 37.389 29 340.729 30 340.363 An obvious observatIon gained by looking at the left-hand table is that it is dOmInated by the consumer non-durable sector of the market. Substantial gains in groups related to retail, food, and drugs have been registered from the first of the year to date, well above the Standard & Poor's 500 Average. However, a number of these groups have dropped in rank when measured from the Iugh III the DJiA which covers the most recent eight week period. These would include groups related to banking, contamers and retail. The right-hand table, while continuing to favor the consumer non-durable sector. shows a number of interesting new names. These include insurance brokers, machine tools, telephone and household goods. Many of these groups -were among the worst performers this year, but have, in the last eight weeks, moved mta the top third of the list. This-group rotation IS important to monitor In order to identify internal changes occurring within the stock market. It IS these changes that could give us the SUpportlDg eVidence needed in determining the short-tenn direction of the market. currently contained by the benchmark closmg Iugh of October 18 at 3077 15 and the closing low posted on March 3 at 2855 45 Robert J. Simpkins, Jr. Delafield. Harvey. Tabell Inc Dow Jones Industnals (12.00) Standard & Poor's 500 (1200) CumulatIve Index (12/19/91) RJSaa 2927.55 385.77 6331.96 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS. or IS to be deemed to be, directly or IndIrectly, an otler or the soliCitatIon of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of Our InformatIon to be reliable. we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Invesllgabon and infOrmation Delafield. Harvey. Tabelilnc. as a corporation and Its offIcerS or employees, may now have, or may later take. postllons or trades In respect to any securrtles mentioned In Ihls or any future Issue. and such pOSItIOn may be drfferenl from any vIews now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue DelafIeld. Harvey. Tabelllnc, whIch IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In ths or In an)! other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS vallable on request

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