Tabell’s Market Letter – March 11, 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 11, 1988

Tabell's Market Letter - March 11, 1988
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I , TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC ,, 1609) 987-2300 – March 11, 1988 —–'1988as-SUpe .. Tuesay has certainlymade us a ware-is–a—presidentialelection –year—We Ilht1A,,' p—-II- tracked tne behaVlor of tne stock market n such years back to the beginning of the century. and the results are shown below. The table shows each election year since 1900, the president elected and his party, followed by the average price of the S & P 500 for each month during the year expressed 8S a percenta.ge of the previous December's close (i.e., 110 means the market was up 10, 90 means it was down 10). Year 1900 President McKinley Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec R 101 103 104 105 100 98 98 99 97 100 108 114 1904 Roosevelt R 102 99 99 101 99 99 103 107 112 118 125 126 1908 Taft R 105 100 105 111 117 117 123 126 125 126 134 138 1912 Wilson D 100 99 102 106 105 105 106 109 109 109 108 103 1916 Wilson D 99 98 97 96 98 99 98 99 102 105 107 103 1920 1924 Harding Coolidge R 99 91 97 96 R 103 104 102 100 91 89 89 86 89 89 85 77 99 101 101 113 112 110 ll5 119 1928 Hoover R 99 98 103 109 113 107 108 III ll9 122 130 130 1932 Roosevelt D 102 101 102 77 68 59 62 93 102 88 87 84 1936 1940 Roosevelt Roosevelt D 102 108 III 111 105 109 ll6 118 120 126 129 127 D 98 98 97 98 85 77 80 82 85 86 88 84 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 Roosevelt Truman Eisenhower Eisenhower Kennedy D 102 101 104 102 104 109 111 llO 108 111 110 112 D 97 92 93 101 106 110 107 104 103 106 100 99 R 102 100 100 100 100 103 106 106 104 102 105 110 R. 97 98 104 106 102 102 107 107 103 102 101 102 D 97 93 92 93 92 96 93 94 92 90 93 95 1964 Johnson D 102 103 105 107 108 107 III 109 111 113 114 112 1'. – – – – – –1','!Q!6.8-NN;i.on IU..,9'!nl!nJ4929!1-11'0nl104lOA41I(n).9i -'n..-4'on.Q8 H)'n, 1972 Nixon R 101 103 105 107 105 106 105 109 107 107 113 115 1976 Carter D 107 112 112 113 ll2 113 116 115 117 113 112 116 1980 Reagan R 103 107 97 95 100 106 III 114 117 121 126 124 1984 Reagan R 101 95 95 96 95 93 92 100 101 100 101 100 Incumbent party did not control Congress. Incumbent party not re-elected Presidential election years show a mildly bullish bias. Only three of them (1920, 1932, and 1940) are distinct bear markets. Thirteen of the 22 years are bull markets, and six showed a fiat trend. Another noticeable tendency appears to be flatness or moderate weakness in the first half. Half of the 22 years showed little market change through June. It is worthy of note that a downward bias tends to occur on two sorts of occasions. The first is when the incumbent party does not control Congress, which we know currently to be the case. The second is when the party of the incumbent president loses the election. Only in 1976, when that occurred. was the market up more than -6 in the first half. Thus, the direction of the market over the next few months may be a good indicator of Republican (for whiCh, read Vice-President Bush's) chances in November. An interesting figure to watch will be the average price in April. There have been nine election years in this century where that price was lower or the same as the previous year end. In six of those nine years,. the incumbent president's party was replaced in the White House. Also interesting is the distinct tendency toward a strong second half. In 18 of the 22 years, the average price for December was higher than the average price for June. This appears to be true regardless of the election results and even in bear-market years where, in the past, the market has rallied in the second half from the June lows. In only two years, 1920 and 1948, were there significant declines between June and December. The election year pattern. therefore, calls for little change in the market during the first half. Strength has been exhibited to date, yesterday's S & P being 107 of the 1987 year-end close of 247.08. This suggests that 1988 may be an exception and also augurs well for Republican chances. The second half of 1988, history strongly suggests, should see a rising market. AWTebh Dow Jones Industrials 02 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/10/88) 2022.71 263.70 3618.52 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No slatement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein conlalned IS, or IS 10 be deemet! 10 be, directly or Indlrectty, an offer orlhe solicltallon of an offerlo buy or sell any security referred 10 or menhOned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the SubSCriber White we beheve the sources of our information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any actIOn to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, and such posItiOn may be dlfferefll from any views now or hereafter expressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, whIch IS registered With the SEC as an mvestmenl adVisor, may give adVice to Its mvestment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further InformatIon on any seCUrity mentioned hereIn IS available On request

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