Viewing Month: July 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 01, 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 01, 1988

Tabell's Market Letter - July 01, 1988
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD. CN 5209. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 – July I, 1988 Well after the fact, experts are still unable to agree on an exact explanation of what happened to !the stock a,!et he fall. 187 ere exists some gagreement ta.!he i!,l'dJ'.9.uyf.J!l.arket . , haa- structul'eS to tie-al Illf'derlvatT'\te proo,!cts I'Qay have somethIng to do WitH. It. but preCIsely what, ' remains a matter of intense debate. We may. indeed. never have a full consensus. (There is even some revisionist theory circulating these days that margin debt had nothing to do with 1929—a notion comparable in its inane charm to the idea that Francis Bacon wrote Shakespeare's plays.) Returning to 1987, the cynics among us, of course, can regard it as simply another episode which could have corne out of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Essentially what happened was the the market spent three years steadfastly ignoring deterIOrating fundamentals and then, for whatever reason, realized what It had been doing and. in October. suddenly recognized reality This recognition, ironically, came about at almost exactly the point at which the deterioration was complete. Date S & P 500 12-mo Earns PIE Consider the data in the table at left For the year 1984, the Standard & Poor's 500 earned 16.64, this figure representing a newall-time high At its Dec 1984 167.24 16.64 10.1 1984 close of 167.24, it was selling for a modest ten Mar 1985 180.66 16.39 11.0 times those earnings—in possible recognition of the Jun 1985 191.85 15.61 12.3 fact that the next three years would be difficult ones Sep 1985 182.08 15.23 12.0 for corporate profits. Over the next two-and-a-half Dec 1985 211.28 14.61 '14.5 years, to June, 1987, those earnings were to drop 13 Mar 1986 238.90 14.52 16.5 to 14.43, falling in seven of the ten quarters. The Jun 1986 251.81 14.71 17.1 market's response to this was to double. Sep 1986 231.32 14.85 15.6 Iromcally, the collapse in the second half of Dec 1986 242.17 14.48 16.7 1987 occurred almost immediately after earnings had hit Mar 1987 291.70 15.10 19.3 their lows in the second quarter of that year and were Jun 1987 304 00 14 43 21.1 starting to improve. Over the past year. the earmngs Sep 1987 321.83 15.86 20.3 rebound has been close to 40, and current estimates, – Dec 1987 247.08 17.50 14.1 – M or -1 9 R-8Pc8- – – 2 5'81l9'-'i-a'6 -1-I-;3 . admittedly subject these days to almost insta!!nt,,–I revision. call fOFfUrther '-increases1Jrtoi988 arid Jun 1988 273.50 20.50 13.3 1989. Given the extent of earnings recovery, the S & P 500 now finds itself, even at a post-crash high, selling for a rather modest thirteen times earnings. It has all, interestingly, happened before. The table at right shows similar quarterly figures for the period between September, 1959 and December, 1962 along with subsequent annual figures into 1965. The 343 whiCh the S & P earned for the twelve months ended September, 1959 was a new recovery high, and close to the all-time peak posted in 1955. The earnings low in June, 1961 led. by two quarters. the December high in prices, just as the June, 1987 earnings low had led the market high by four months. The 1962 break moved the pricel earnings ratio from a record 22.4 high to around the fifteen level in late 1962. Once again, the break occurred concurrently with the beginning of a substantial earnings recovery which, by the end of 1965, had been extended to 71 What may be relevant to the current instance is that the final realization—around the second half of 1962—that earnings were in an uptrend produced modest recovery in the S & P price! earnings ratio which. having fallen from 22 to 15, returned to the 17-18 level in 1963 and 1964. Whether such a recovery takes place in the Date Sep 1959 De c 1959 Mar 1960 Jun 1960 Sep 1960 Dec 1960 Mar 1961 Jun 1961 Sep 1961 Dec 1961 Mar 1962 Jun 1962 Sep 1962 Dec 1962 De c 1963 De c 1964 Dec 1965 S & P 500 12-mo.Earns PIE 56.88 59.89 55.34 56.92 53.52 59. II 65.06 64.64 66.73 71.55 69.55 54.75 56.27 63.10 75.02 84.75 92.43 3.43 16.6 3.39 17.7 3.39 16.3 3.26 17.5 3.27 16.4 3.27 18.1 3.09 21.1 3.03 21.3 3.05 21.9 3.19 22.4 3 37 20.6 3.47 15.8 3.53 15.9 3.67 17.2 4.02 18.7 4;55–18, 6 – – – 1 5.19 17.8 present instance will probably be the major determinant of how good the present rally is going to be. Current valuations of earnings, applied to an estimated 1989 S & P earnings level of 22.40, would result in a move of less than 8 from current levels On the other hand, recovery of just half the ground lost since mid-1987, to a pie of, say, 16.5, could produce a new high Whether the market's confidence can be restored to this degree is questionable. but such restoration does have some historical precedent. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. AWTebh Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (6/30/88) 2135.84 272.45 392632 No statement or expression oj Opinion or any other matler herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the so/Icltalion. of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our Informauon to be reliable, we In no way represenl or guarantee the accuracy thereot nor of the statements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and ItS olflcers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSIi!on may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered Wlth the SEC as an IIwestment advisor, may gIVe adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 08, 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 08, 1988

Tabell's Market Letter - July 08, 1988
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 July 8, 1988 – -patt'-rnWseihna-vteW,)-8Sstoouckr -rmeaardkeerts. areInawcoanrlele. ctdieovnottenedreaw;ftaliir7wa-me-ofuanvteo'fpUs1tjuldisyrnofvde;ratth-earyouenadrsftoiBsleiamseo-neaalcf — – year. the table below, which, for each of the twelve months, shows the number of times the market has advanced for each month, the number of declines, and the average percentage change. In all, 744 months, ,comprising the 62 years from 1926 to 1987 are included in the compilation. One Month Periods 11926-19871 Two Month Per1od 11926-1987) End Month Advances Declines Average S Chg. Jonuary 40 22 1. 27 Februsry 32 30 -0.02 Horch 35 27 0 13 AprIl 34 28 1.12 H.y 31 31 -0.73 June 33 29 0.99 July 38 24 1. 65 August 40 22 1. 65 September 23 39 -1. 41 October 33 29 -0.57 November 38 24 0.70 — –December 45 17 – -1-.-2–8 TOTAL 422 322 0.51 Advance Declines Average I Chg. 41 21 36 26 30 32 39 23 35 27 29 33 38 24 42 20 36 26 28 34 37 25 –4-4 –18- 435 309 2.53 1. 26 0.03 1. 31 0.58 0.22 2.60 3.44 0.21 -1. 94 0.21 -2-..0-01. 04 As the table indicates, of the 744 months since 1926, 422—or 57—have been advancing months, and 322—or 43—have showed declines. Thus. the normal expectation for any given month would be 34-35 advances and 26-27 declines. Similar figures can be adduced for two-month periods. 1.JF'rooom…tb.e.data ahoY.ll.,w.e.have.been.ab\eto.extr.acUour patterns of a seasQnaL!la.tlU'..e which sem to be statistically significant. The most significant one is the least known, the tendency toward 8 market decline in the month of September. Since 57 of all months have been rising ones since 1926. the expectation would be a plurality of advances over declines. However. precisely the opposite is the case for September. which. in 62 years. has produced 39 declines and only 23 advances, with an average drop of 1.41 percent. The tendency held true last year. The initial phase of the 1987 market crash took place in September, with the Dow, as of September 21, down 6.4 from its August close. Despite a later recovery. September, 1987 was still a down month. The next most significant pattern has been the year-end rally. illustrated by 45 rising Decembers in 61 years. Our readers know that we have published an annual comment on this phenomenon around December or January of each year. Another seasonal manifestation which can be statistically demonstrated. although we have no idea of the reason therefore. has been the fact that the direction in which the market moves in November has appeared to be a moderately successful predictor of the market's direction for the following year. Of the four seasonal phenomena. the least significant has been the summer rally. which is due to be analyzed at this juncture. As the table shows. the 38 advances and 24 declines for July are marginally better than one would expect. August shows an even greater aberration. The percentage advances for July and August, along with that for the two-month period ending m August, are easily the largest figures in the table. Despite these fIgures, standard tests of statistical significance suggest that the summer rally is a less reliable phenomenon than the others noted above. It has been even less reliable recently I especially in July with four of the six Julys since 1982 having been down months. The pattern of August strength seems to have continued, however. There also seems to have emerged in recent years a brand new tendency—the occurrence of important market turning points during the summer months. The two most recent known market bottoms were, of course, August 12, 1982 and July 24, 1984. In the opposite direction, the top leading to the 1983 – 1984 decline began to form during the summer of 1983 and, of course, the all-time high for the Dow, prece(Ung'the198Tcrash-;-occurredon'Aug\lst'25lastyear.—- . – -f- The post-crash high to d8te interestingly enough, is a July occurrence. having taken place this Tuesday, on July 5. It will be interesting to see whether this, or any subsequent high reached on a summer rally this year. turns out to be an important turning point. AWTebh Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (717188) 2119.13 271.78 3921. 90 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. NOSlalemenl or expression of oplnronor any other matter herein contained IS, or Isla be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer orthe solicitation 01 an offer to buy or sell any secUrity referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any acllOn to betaken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and InformallOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation end ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posrtlons or trades In respect to any securrtles menllOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posrtlon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield. Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to (\S Investment adVISOry and olher customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue FUl1her mformahon on any secUrity mentioned herein IS available on request I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 15, 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 15, 1988

Tabell's Market Letter - July 15, 1988
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– '. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609J 987-2300 July 15, 1988 The simplest question which can be posed to the market analyst at any given time IS, Are we in – – – bull or a bear market 11 As simple as the question may . ,i often difficult to answer an., Iflclee-a–such IS the case at the moment.- -An attempfatPIumblng- tne mystery In summer, 1988 IS-,—–I- moreover, particularly instructive, SInce a byproduct of that attempt is the discovery that some of the trading patterns which have lately been confronting the technician are, historically, largely unprecedented. It is necessary to start with a benchmark, and an obvious one, of course, is October 19, 1987. That day's DJIA close was 1738.74. On July 5, less than two weeks ago, the average chalked up a post-crash high of 2158.61. The interval between those two pOints thus constitutes a 24.15 advance. requiring 179 trading days. With these simple facts, we can begin our analysis. It probably makes the most sense to begin with the hypothesis that an ongoing bear market exists. Were this premise to be the correct one, the 179 days between October 19 and July 5 would have to be considered a bear-market rally. What are the precedents for a rally of this length and extent Everybody's favorite precedent was, until recently at least, the advance from November 13, 1929 to April 17, 1930. It took the Dow up 48 and recovered more than half the ground lost on the 1929 break. That advance, however, was over In 124 trading days, eleven weeks less than the present upswing. Indeed, had today's market followed the 1930's pattern, it would, as we noted a few weeks ago, now be posting new lows—below those of October. When one applies a filter of, say, 20, to the markets of the 1930's and 1940's, one does fmd a fair number of advances during bear markets of approximately the current magnitude. In addition to November 1929 – April 1930, there were four subsequent cases in the 1929 – 1932 downswing. However, they ranged in length from 22 to 56 days. The 1938 – 1942 bear market saw a pair of greater-than-20 bear-market rallies. They were 127 and 131 days long. Since 1942, it has been appropriate to use a 20 filter as the prIma-facie definition for bull and bear markets. There has, therefore, never occurred a bear-market rally that has demonstrated the staying power of the present – -I—''Let.us examine the alternative hypothesis. It then becomes necessary to ask whether a 24.1, 179-day advance is consistent with what tends to happen at the start of a bull market. The table below shows. for each of the fourteen major bull markets since 1932, the extent to which the Dow had advanced in the first 179 trading days. It is interesting that, in half of them, the advance was roughly comparable to the present one. The two bull markets beginning in the 1930's, of course, showed much larger rises, and three of the five major upswings since 1970 also began with larger advances. We will return to this point in a moment. Bull-Market Start For First 179 Days Advance 4 Corrections Bull-Market Start For First 179 Days Advance 4 Corrections July. 1932 March, 1938 April, 1942 October, 1946 June, 1949 September, 1953 October, 1957 93.1 55.8 26.2 13.1 26.8 28.6 14.8 9 June, 1962 28.5 6 October, 1966 22.2 0 May, 1970 39.7 4 December, 1974 52.7 0 February, 1978 22.3 0 August, 1982 55.6 2 July, 1984 19.6 2 2 2 4 4 6 3 The present market has advanced 24 in 36 weeks. but the advance has been a comparatively volatile one Volatility can be measured by the application of a small filter—for example 4—to the trading period in question. This technique reveals that there have been no fewer than six corrections of 4 or more since the rise began last October .. This is a fairly large number as the table also shows.. It has been equaled or exceeded only three times—in 1932 .1938. and 1982., In each case,. the rally that tookplace over. the period was considerably greater than the rise to date. By contrast. the advances during the 1940's, 1950's, and 1960's tended to have far fewer corrections in their early stages. It must be noted that the same can be said of the bear-market rallies during the 1930's. It seems to us that the overall Impact of the above figures forces one In the direction of optimism, but with just one caveat. The modest advance that has taken place so far appears characteristic of many of the post World War II bull markets. Those initial phases, however, were quite steady with few significant corrections. When compared with the more volatile advances of the 1930's and the 1980's, where numerous short-term corrections were the norm, the present-day rise seems relatively weak. To this extent, it would seem, we find ourselves in uncharted territory. AWTebh Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (7/14/88) 2108.82 269.86 3915.18 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statement or expression of Opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer orthe solicrtatlon 01 an offer to buy or sell any secUrity relerred to or mentioned The matte! IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our Informal1On to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stalements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey. Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities menl10ned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different tram any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any securrty menl!oned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 22, 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 22, 1988

Tabell's Market Letter - July 22, 1988
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… '! TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 ,July 22, 1988 We suggested in last week's letter that there existed certain confusing aspects of market action since the October crash. On the one hand, the market had been unusually volatIle (no fewer than six 4 corrections over ten montllSJ, yetiillOr't1irSVoratilityhiilJ-raileatoge-neratem(ichnetprogresg–on'tl1e'—- –upside, with a rise in the Dow of only 24. However, the encouraging fact revealed by intensIve analysis of this pattern was that it was beginning to look less and less like a bear-market rally. Indeed, such a rally, a 24 rise over 178 trading days, had never taken place in the period from 1926 to date. Although market action can be said, on this basis, to be encouragIng for the long-term, there remains at least one attribute of that action WhICh can be taken, properly we think, as a cause for concern. That attribute is market breadth and, if anything, breadth behavIor has been deteriorating in recent weeks. This raIses some questions as far as the immediate market picture is concerned. – – Ij 5 \ I, ; V The chart above shows the Dow since last October's low, along with our daily breadth index and another measure of the market's internal strength—a ten-day average of new highs minus new lows. It is worth examining these figures, especially breadth, in some detail. The left hand side of the chart shows the immediate aftermath of October 19, a two-day rally which brought the Dow to a high above 2000 and involved a concomitant breadth peak. While the Dow low held, breadth action continued desultory for the remainder of 1987, and our breadth index posted a new low in December. Although the DJIA was able to Score a new high in early January, breadth, at that point, was still well below its October 21 high, and it Was not until February 29 that breadth was able to score a new peak, thus confirming the Dow's rise. That was Just about the end of anything that could be termed good breadth action. The advance-decline high was achieved on March 17. As the right hand side of the chart clearly shows, new highs in the Dow in April, June, and, finally, on July 5, have remained unconfirmed by breadth. Now from an analytical pOint of view, it can be questioned whether or not we should even care about this nonconfirmation. Such a disparity is usually an attribute of market tops, and it can be argued that these are early days to be lookmg for a major top formation. The Dow has, however, advanced almost 25 and IS well beyond an unmistakable low posted Some 38 weeks ago. We cannot therefore totally rule out the possibility of a cycle top at thIS time. Even if we discount the nonconfirmation aspect, breadth action appears below average. Normal breadth action at major market bottoms has almost invariably been a dynamic and protracted rise to new peaks. This sort of thing contrasts markedlywith.,. themoveof .. the.. advance-;decline lineto new ..-lows …in December. From its December low to the March high, the breadth index gained 33.38 pOints. At a comparative stage following the 1962 bottom, breadth had risen some 55 pOints, and had moved ahead by 60 points following the low of October, 1966. In both of those instances the percentage move in the Dow over a like time period was approximately 25, just as in the the current instance. It should also be noted that our method of computation makes the 'point-advance figures for the three periods comparable. There has, moreover, been little recent improvement. Since early June, there have occurred only three days with more than 1000 advances, although there have been some fairly sizable DJIA rallIes. Although the breadth index has not moved down as sharply as it did in March – May, its action has hardly been exciting Continued deterioration could suggest yet another one of the short-term downswings which have characterized post-crash action to date, one carrying perhaps to somewhere slightly below the 2000 level. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2062.77 S & P 500 (1200) 266.25 Cumulative Index (7121188) 3893.95 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offerlc buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subsCriber While we beheve the sources oj our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor Qf the statements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subsCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delafleld, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, pOSlllOns or trades In respactto any securlhes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may grve adVIce to lIS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request \

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 29, 1988

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 29, 1988

Tabell's Market Letter - July 29, 1988
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r ,, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 July 29, 1988 Despite a Thursday and .. -,. n J rally, July, 1988 will, almost certainiy, turn out to have been a down month. The DJIA, along with almost all other averages, reached a closing high early in the month, on July 5, at 2158.61. At Wednesday's close of 2053.70, it was down 4.86 from that high. This action is in near-perfect conformity with recent trading patterns. We pointed out two weeks ago in this space that the market since October 19 had consisted basically of backing-and-filling action which could be isolated by using a 4 filter. The July 5 – 27 period constitutes the seventh 4-or-greater correction in the almost-ten-month period since the October crash. The July decline also conforms to what appears to be a recent alteration in the summer-rally pattern—if, in fact, there exists such a pattern, a proposition of which we find ourselves less convinced than most analysts. In any case, five of the seven Julys since 1982 have been downward months, and the July record for the past 63 years is now 38 advances versus 25 declines, a ratio not all that different from the overall average. For what it is worth, August, in recent years, has tended to retain its upward bias. This upward bias also appears to be valid for Augusts occurring in an election year. Based on average price, the market has been up during August in 17 of 22 election years since 1900. It will also be recalled that, in general, the second half of election years possesses a bullish bias. We are probably due for a test of whether this pattern will hold in 1988. As noted above, most major AVPAapq nPAkrl on July 5. Likewise .the.. vast of major reached lOWS on wea ana saw tneIr r JOWS on May ZJ. q. tne short-term tops for these indicators have downside objectives just above the lows of last May—indicating a test of the May lows which is likely to be successful. The table below shows the relevant statistics. July 5 July 27 Decline Downside Objective May 23 DJ Industrials DJ Transportation DJ utilities S & P 500 S 8. P Industrials S & P Financial NYSE Composite NYSE Industrials NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ Industrials 2158.61 908.45 182.14 275.81 318.52 25.22 155.57 188.33 396.1 413.1 2053.70 l!55.73 175.50 (7/22) 262.50 303.15 23.97 148.74 179.75 383.3 393.2 – 4.86 – 5.80 – 3.65 – 4.83 – 4.83 – 4.96 – 4.39 – 4.56 – 3.23 – 4.82 2010-1950 845 – 820 174 – 169 262 – 256 301 – 295 23 – 22 145 174 – 1941.48 784.05 167.67 (5/11) 250.83 290.74 21.83 142.21 172.22 363.3 312.6 What is particularly interesting, we think, is the uniformity among the widely disparate averages—to a degree we cannot recall observing in recent years. With the single exception of the Dow Jones Utilities, all of the averages in the table show a low on May 23. a high on July 5, and a low last Wednesday. The similarity of the percentage declines is likewise 'remarkable. – With the -notable exception of 'the -OTC averages, each -indicator has a short-term -top which counts to around the low of last May. If the lower end of the downside target ranges for the various indices is achieved. the action of those indices versus their respective May lows should be observed very closely. The resultant test should, we think. be a significant indicator of market direction for the remainder of 1988. AWTebh ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2097.44 S & P 500 (1200) 267.35 Cumulative Index (7/28/88) 3868.98 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy Of sell any security referred to or mentioned The matler IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor 01 the statements made herSln Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigatIOn and Information Delatll;lld, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may laler take, post/Ions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned Irl thrs or any future ISSue, and such POSitIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may give adVICe to ItS investment adVISOry and olher cuS10mers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any securrty mentioned herein IS available on request

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