Tabell’s Market Letter – June 17, 1983

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – June 17, 1983 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose 11.02 points on Thursday, posting a newall-time high, .;;c,!.;los,..i.,,ng at 1248.30. While ,obviously , reaffirming the long-term bull-market condition which has been In —effecf siridUasf'August, the' conTInued strength' siiicethtt time-nas ;tieen;.jndeed-, remarkable-vTitl1in a time frame of 215 trading days the DJIA has, to date, advanced 471. 38 points or 60.67. To put this performance in proper perspective it becomes necessary to go back some 50 years in stock-market history to find a period where an advance of this magnitude has occurred within a like time frame. This has taken place numerous times (89) within ,a single, broad period of time between July, 1933 and January, 1934. The maximum percentage increase within this period happened on November 29, 1933. It is interesting to note in this instance the DJIA advanced only 47.98 points, but from a base of 50.16 to 98.14 or 95.65. It should also be pointed DATE DJ AVERAGE ADVANCE out that during this broad, uninterrupted advance there has yet to be a correction of more than 8/12/82 9/21/82 9/30/82 776.92 934.79 896.25 0.00 20.32 -4.12 6. In fact, the four minor 10/21/82 1036.98 15.70 corrections which have occurred to 12/16/82 990.25 -4.51 date have averaged a remarkably small 4.18. These percentage 1/10/83 1/24/83 1092.35 1030.17 10.31 -5.69 swings from the August, 1982 low to date are noted on the right. 5/6/83 6/8/83 6/16/83 1232.59 1185.50 1248.30 19.65 -3.82 5.30 The chart below shows the daily Dow-Jones Industrial Average versus a 10-day oscillator of advance minus declines from August, 1982 to date. 10 DAY OSCILLATOR What is interesting to observe is the orderly behavior of the oscillator relative to the market advance after the large, overbought condition was achieved in August, 1982. However, the significance of the large, overbought condition must not go unnoticed. On August 26, the 10-day oscillator recorded the largest plurality of advances over declines (7,434) in stock-market hIstory. This condihon can be compared favorably to past overbought markets, albeit not as dramatically. the most recent being the December, 1974-July, 1975 period when an advance of 52.67 was registered after the 10-day oscillator registered 6,357 on January 14, 1975. What this continues to reinforce to us is the healthy' technical condition of a mnturjng bull market which indicates higher equity prices. DownJone&rlad…u&tm'n12c09olilmm,.. er hb2f1,6….,49ned IS, or IS 10 be lol,,, 'V . 1I'l.c;1, , n ,r'or the solicitaTion of on offer 'S lOp.bl.1f)orr-nY tilth b't!H.HbtI'Th', A! ,n 'ef(!)rO' 'hd-b .e ITeHff9(QIT. i,ngeudarTonhele emaIthtle1di.Qr'c)rrtq!71I'heedremoferneolyr for the llEbArFtlEI!l9lubH-ARVE, of the sIatements mude he.eon Al'ly actlO'l t'e.'FoA6B&Lources of our .nformato be tael'l by the subscriber should be C\lnn!lmt!ivewIr\'delXJoc6l 8),allon Janney M0)il3r079colt. Inc, os a corporotlol. and liS officers or employees. may now have, or may later lake. pOSitions or !rodes In respec;1 loony securiTIes mentioned on ThiS or ony tuture Issue, and such posItion moy be different from any views now or hereafter epressed In Ihls or any olher Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an ,nvestment odvlsor. moy give adVIce to lIs ,nvestment adVIsOry and othel cvslomel Independently of any slate'nents mode In thiS or on any other Issue FUr1her onformo;,on on any security mentIoned herein IS ovolloble on request