Viewing Year: 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 06, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 06, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - January 06, 1978
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r—- — TABELL'S MARKET LETTER .. 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEM8ER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER .ERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE January 6, 1978 The market's memory is often a short one. For 79 years through 1975, the year- 'end rallY'hadinvariablycontinued,for at.leasta-day–or so.on-into,the-new-y-ear';cIn19.767.z..this ……. failed to happen, with the Dow moving immediately down from its December 31 high. This year, apparently, instead of returning to the long-term pattern, the market is trying to repeat last year's performance with the major indices having consistently moved lower from their December 30, 1977 closes. In the process of that drop, the December low of 806.22 on the Dow, to which we drew attention last week, has been decisively penetrated, and, as we noted a week ago, this phenomenon, on the record, does not augur well for the market pattern in 1978. This year-end rally pattern, as our readers are aware, is an indicator to which we have been drawing attention for a number of years. It has, of late, begun to attract fairly widespread notice, especially since last year's January a'ction proved an accurate harbinger of the year's trend. Many writers have suggested that the first five or the first ten days of January, or the month itself, tended to fore- cast the year's action. There is some truth in this, but a look at the record shows that it is not all that simple. The following table summarizes January action for the past 52 years as related to the subsequent year's market trend. It shows the number of times the market was up or down for five, ten, fifteen and twenty day-trading periods, plus the month of January as a whole, followed by the year's trend in each instance. For example, the first line shows that the market was up 34 times and down 18 times for the first five days of January. In the 34 years of a five-day up- trend, the full-year trend was up 26 times and down eight times. The 18 five-day downtrends produced seven up markets and 11 down markets. Similar figures are shown for the other periods. '0 ,. —. JaJ)!!ary '. Ma!ketYearsTLend . JI4a!let .cc. Y.e.ar.s Trend ,…. Period Up QE Down Down QE Down 1st 5 days 34 26 8 18 7 11 1st 10 days 32 23 9 20 10 10 1st 15 days 28 22 6 24 11 13 1st 20 days 30 22 8 22 11 11 Entire month 34 26 8 18 7 11 An initial glance at the table would suggest that January, indeed, does have some forecasting properties. However, more rigorous examination will suggest reservations. It it necessary to recall, for example, that, in the 52 years in question, the market was up 33 times or 63 of the total. Thus, a naive procedure of forecasting, on the first of the year, that the market was going to be up would have been right almost two-thirds of the time. To qualify as an oracle, January must better this record. It does, indeed, do so, but not by much. Indeed, the record for all five January periods in forecasting up markets fails most standard tests of statistical significance. Downward trends in January have a better record. While the forecasting records of ten and twenty-day periods are little better than could have been produced at random, down- ward trends over the first five days, the first 15 days and the entire month of January do appear to be related to the year's trend as a whole. Thus, the fact that the first five days of this year will probably see the market down reinforces the significance of the December low penetration discussed above. . — . Having documented—– —- – – ……,., .-……. – t–he- u-n–p'l'e-a.-s-a nt-a-u-g-uries–w-ith..w..h.i-c h.. stat-i.s&tical i-n fe……… r- ence . – – – – … provides us for 1978, we must confess to a certain amount of intuitive skepticism. A year-old downtrend remains in effect, and, at no time during 1977, did the market provide truly convincing reversal evidence for that trend. Certainly, market action so far suggests the continuation of that downtrend, at least over the short-term. Indeed, the immediate weakness could, we suppose, carry far enough so that 1978 will eventually come to be viewed as a downward year. The overall pattern, however, suggests to us that at some level, a level perhaps not too far from the present, a significant reversal could well take place. Looking for evidence of that reversal will be the most important task for stock market analysis in 1978. Dow Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 797.82 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 92.12 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (1/5/78) 663.25 AWT/jb No stalement or expression of opinion or any other matter nereln contOlned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrectly, on offer or Ihe soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell onf, secJrlly referred to or menlloned The matter IS presented merely far the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our informa- tion to be rei lob e, we ,n no way represent or guaranTee the accuracy thereof nor af the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Invesllgatlan and information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, posll1ons or trade, Ifl respect to any securities mentioned Ifl thl Of any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereafter eJpressed In HllS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 15 registered With the SEC as on Iflvestment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers ,ndependently of any statements mode Ifl thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security men honed herein IS avolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - January 13, 1978
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f– I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 1 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE January 13, 1978 It Is difficult to recall a stock market year that began with a worse set of portents than the first t'110 weeks of 1978,provided us, ,As we discussed at length in our last letter of 1977, an early break- of the-December low-has often tended -to- be a forecasterofIower prices for-the y';ar – –. to come. That low was broken In the first week of 1978. We suggested last week that January action has some limited validity as a model for the market year. That action, at least untll a rather feeble rally attempt at the end of this week, has been little short of abysmal. At its midweek low this week, the Dow found itself down 6.6 percent from its year-end close after just seven trading days and down 8.3 percent from its last rally high, scored back in mid-November. If the performance has been painful so far, there is very little to suggest any immediate relief. To date, at least, despite the rather drastic 1978 weakness, there Is little or no sign of the sort of deeply oversold condition which would tend to suggest that a major bottom is at hand. Under these conditions, any rally attempt from current levels would have to be viewed with a great deal of suspicion and might well turn out to be as abortive as the short rally in the first two weeks of November, which started from the same sort of semi-oversold, rather than deep oversold, condition. The late October bottom, which preceded that rally, was, of course, broken decisively last week. Indeed, in many ways, the least constructive thing that the market could do would be to attempt to rally at this juncture. We have reached that stage where the strongest technical action would be the sort of sharp terminal decline which would effectively clear the air and pave the way for a meaningful advance. Any attempt on the part of the market to move ahead immediately would Simply push that process further Into 1978. Having unourderied ours elves- of tne above gloo-my musiiigs, It Is -necessa.yto -ask- ourselves just how vulnerable the market remains, considering Its already-depressed level. To do this, we must look at three separate areas, the Dow, a proxy for basiC-industry stocks, the Standard & Poor's 500, representing the broad range of large-capitalization companies, and an unwelghted Index, such as our Cumulative Index, which measures the action of all NYSE issues regardless of capitalization. Over the past 16 months, the Dow has been by far the weakest performer of the three, having moved down more than 23 from its late-1976 high. The S&P has declined but by a lesser amount — around 18. Meanwhile, the average stock has been defyIng the decline in the major indices all year. The Cumulative Index currently stands less than 3 below Its 1976 close. The Dow, we think, having already moved down a great deal more sharply than the other indicators, may perhaps be the closest to its ultimate low. Many baSiC-industry Issues had reached downside objectives by the latter part of last year, and since that time, despite the market weakness, they have held their lows satisfactorily. Our downs ide target for the Dow centers around the 750 level, a figure not that distreSSingly far from Its current price. By contrast, the S&P appears to possess a good deal more vulnerabllity. Its Thurs- day close was 89.82 and there exist possible downside targets In the high 70s. This would be a fairly sharp percentage decline but, it should be noted, were It to take place, the Indicator's total decline from high to low would wind up being not much greater than the total decline for the Dow. There appears — ——- – –Indices could catch to be some possibllity, at least, that up with the Dow on- the,,,.downside…..,….. the -,.-S&P — a -, n – d- o t h e r c a p i tal-w …-.— e i g – h.ted- – Many writers have suggested that secondary Issues, having outperformed the market all year, are In for a similar comeuppance. Our technical work does not suggest this. The most pesslmlsllc objective that can currently be read for the Cumulative Index is 590 versus a current level of 640. This Is not a serious decline, considering the relatively higher volatlhty of the components, and the basic uptrend for the index remains intact. We do not think, 1n other words I that the superior performance by secondary stocks, which characterized the market last year. Is a transitory phenomenon, and we believe it will continue, once a firm bottom is established for 1978. DOW-Jones Industrials (1130a.m.) 779.19 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P CompOSite (1100 a.m.) 99.02 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (1/12/78) 640.82 AWT/jb No statement or cprl!slon of opinion or any other matter herein tonlalned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell onr. security referred to or menhoned The matter IS presented merely for the convellence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our nfmb' lion 10 be rellab e we In no way represent or guarantee the ouracy thereof nor of the statements mlde herein Any action to be talen by the subscrtber s au e based on hiS awn'lnvestlgatlon and Infarmahon. Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as 0 corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may taler taki positions or trade! In respect to any secUrities mentioned m thiS or any future luue, ond such POSition may be different from any views now or hereaJter expretedh Ih.s or any ather Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, tnc, which 1 registered With the SEC oS an Investment adnsor, may give odvlCe to Its Investment a vlSoryon at er ('IJstomers independenTly of any stolements made In thiS or m ony other Issue further mfarmalton on any secvnty mentioned herem 15 available On request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 20, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 20, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - January 20, 1978
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK. eXCHANGE January 20, 1978 The following will, of necessity, be a hastily-prepared market comment. Indeed, as we write these words, we arenot totally sure when or how they will reach print. The epic snowstorm, which has stalled the-entiremetropolitan area, has lft its imprint on Princeton, New Jersey, and, at the moment, we are alone in the office—being here ourselves only through the aegis of a four-wheel-drive vehicle. In any case, a few observations. In a number of ways, the stock market, at the present time appears to be as snarld and confused as the snow-buried regional transportation system. Tuesday and Wednesday of this week saw fairly powerful rallies in most stockmarket indicators, with the Dow being up on the two days by identical margins of 7.28 points. These advances interrupted a ten-day string inagurating 1978 in which the DJIA declined on nine days and, in the process, reached another new bear-market low, its lowest figure since March, 1975. By midweek, most shortterm indicators had reached what could be termed a normally oversold condition, so that the rally attempt hardly came as a total surprise from a technical point of view. The problem is, of course, that the attianment of a normally oversold condition and a subsequent rally from that status is not an achievement calculated to solve the market's current technical malaise. We noted here on October 28th that the rally which had then gotten underway failed, by a narrow margin, to meet the criteria which we had historicallY come to assciate with major stock market bottoms. The present state of the market fails to meet those criteria by an even wider margin. '-Thev iew- h-as-beenexpre-ssed -th-at ,- the present decline-in manyways- being – a somewhat unique beast, the ultimate reversal process will assume a shape different from other major market turning points. Our own suspicion is that this view reflects hope rather than analysis. At least some of the characteristics of the market of the past year and a half have been present in prior downward envirionments. Almost uniformly, those envirionments finally came to an end with at least a few of the characteristics of a washout. No records for deep oversold symptoms were set in the process, and we should expect no such records to be set this time. However, the record suggests that bear markets do not tend to die quietly, and we do not expect the present one to do so. -, Nonetheless, it would be folly not to recognize some of the unique attributes of the present market scene. We, along with just about everyone else whose business it is to comment on the investment picture,have repeatedly noted its two-tier aspect—the almost-uncanny outperformance of the major market averages by an army of secondary and tertiary stocks. This outperformance has given rise to another piece of conventional wisdom—the doctrine that the weakness which has affected the leading companies which comprise the averages will eventually spread to those junior issues which have been sailing along oblivious of a 17-month bear market. As we noted last week, we suspect this argument is just a bit facile also. A reading of techncial patterns areveals some deteriration in the action of smaller issues, but not, to be hon- est all that much.- Meanwhil'e', rallier interesting rota'tionof-leadership – – among the secondaries continues to be a feature. Even in the present dreary climate, new base patterns are being formed, and new upside breakouts are taking place. We do not, in sum, expect any rally which may occur from current levels to exhibit any degree of permanance. We continue to feel, however, that the accelerating gloom which a falling stock market normally engenders may, at this stage, be misplaced. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD,HARVEY,TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials(1/19/78) 778.67 5 & P Composite (1/19/78) 90.09 Cumulative Index (1/18/78) 647.10 —————————————————————No stotemenl Of ftxpresslon of oplmon or any other motter herein contolned 15, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or mdlrectly, an offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentIOned The moiler 1 presented merely for the converlence of the subSCriber. While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we m no woy represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be Token by the ubscrlber should be based on hiS own mvestlgotlon and Information Janney MonTgomery Scott, in, , as a corporation, and III officers or employees, may now have, or may loter loke, positions or trades In respect To ony securltles mentioned In th.s or any future Issue, ond such position moy be d.fferent from any views now or hereafter exprl'lned In thiS or any other Issue Janney Monlgomery Scott, Inc, wh.ch .s reglSered With the SEC as an 'nvestment adVisor, may g.ve adVice 10 11 mvestment adVisory and Olhe, customers mdependently of any statements mode ,n thiS or In any other Issue Further mformallon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 27, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 27, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - January 27, 1978
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!!i40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK eXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE January 27, 1978 More of the same. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average plunged to another new closing 10, onEine-point decline in Thursdays traCiing, and inspectionof,standard stock market indi- cators shows little eVidence to support other than a short-term reversalof the downtrend-which – has confined the major averages for the past thirteen months. Yet, amid the chaos which sur- rounds the widely-followed market indices, pockets of strength persist and, as has been the case throughout the decline, a fair number of stocks, obliVious to the action of the averages, demon- strate satisfactory technical action on the upside. This phenomenon — it may be called the new two-tier market — has not gone unremarked in this space or in the writings of other finan- cial commentators. Yet, many of us, engaged in close inspection of the trees, fail to appreciate the rather weird and wonderful nature of the present stock-market forest. For it is not supposed to happen this way, and, in many ways, the pres ent market climate constitutes a phenomenon en tirely outside the experience of most people currently engaged in the securities business. There can be little doubt in anyone's mind that the market of the past year will qual- ify, by any standard one chooses to apply, as a bear market. All past market experience tells us that during bear markets certain things tend to happen. One of these things is that secondary stocks, inherently possessing greater market volatility than major companies, exaggerate the market's action by going down faster and further than their supposedly-more-stable, senior counterparts. The cornerstone of modem portfolio theory is the beta coefficient,whose under- lying rationale states that diversified portfolios selected from common stocks of historically- high volatility, should,during a sharp market downturn, inevitably move down more than the aver- ages. .Yet,over the past year,precis.ely.the opposite,has.taken.place .-There,J.samplydoc- umented record of high-volatility portfolios that have, indeed, advanced in value during a period during which the Dow is down in excess of 20. At the birth of the United States, the British band, surrendering at Yorktown, played The World Turned Upside Down. lt is an appropriate theme for today's stock market. lt seems, therefore, appropriate to devote some thought as to why this should be. lt is a question to which there are no hard answers. Yet, there are a number of factors which, on the surface at least, seem to support a plausible explanation. It is a tautology to state that the past two decades of stock market history have featured growing institutional dominance of the stock market scene, to the extent that institu- tional activity is now said to account for 80 of all trading. That institutional trading, moreover, has come of necessity to be dominated more and more by la.-ge money managers, those responsi- ble for the deployment of amounts measured in the billions of dollars. By definition, it seems fair to say, the activity of such money managers is constrained and is, by and large, limited to a rather small number of stocks with a large floating supply. By definition, also, such institu- tions are aware of alternate forms of investment and of the current attractiveness of fixed-income securities. The fact that they have been unwilling buyers of equities at best, is documented by the downward movement of the averages. Meanwhile, however, the individual investor, in admittedly greatly-reduced numbers, is still out there. He operates in a market largely ignored by professional managers and, essentially,.thus unaffected by-the 'macroeconomic power of institutions Today'ssurvivorin that- – hardy breed may, indeed, by the simple process of natural selection, be, on the average, more sophisticated than his counterpart of some years ago, and, indeed, on the record, he has been achieving, in recent months, some rather spectacular and unusual results. The emergence of the new two-tier market is, we think, one of the more fascinating developments of our own experience in analyzing the behavior of equity prices. We intend to comment on it further in this space. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p. m.) 765.51 88.63 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (1/26/78) 643.59 AWT/jb No statement or expression of opinion or any olher matter herem contolned IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the 501lclloilon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converlenCI! of the subSCriber While I! believe the sources of our ,forma lion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Janney Montgomery Scol!, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, pOSitions or trades In respect to any seCUrities menlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posllion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed 11'1 Ihls or any other Inue Janney Montgomery Sc.ott, Inc., which IS registered with the SEC 0 on mvestment adVisor, may give adVICe to lIs Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In thl or In any oiher Issue fuher II'Iformatlon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 03, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 03, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - February 03, 1978
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— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER I I \ I I I ..J 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08840 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE February 3, 1978 yv e C5l'!l!1ted !.t ve1 n tl1l3 emergence f w1'!at is, i effest, the ,new o-ter mar- tne oiket- tryingto underscore 'theiil'most completefaCk' of 1lIstor1cianli'ecedentfor 'sort behavior that— has been taking place In equity markets for the past year and a half. That behavior has produced on- going declines In the Widely-followed market Indices which, by historical standards, qualify as major bear markets. Concomitant with these declines, there has existed highly satisfactory upside be- havior on the part of a significant number of secondary Issues and, Indeed, for a great part of the period In question, an ongoing bull market for Indices constructed to reflect the behavior of this sort of Issue. The Initial response of the seasoned market observer Is that this sort of thing cannot happen — by which he means It has seldom, if ever, taken place In the past. Secondary stocks, we know from experience, tend to possess higher volatility than first-tier Issues and to move down- ward more rapidly In bear markets. Thus, at first blush, the sort of behavior which characterized most of 1977 could be expected to be Impossible. A look at the numbers, however, suggests that this attitude Is based largely on preconception and that there Is no real reason why the current sort of divergence Is not perfectly plausible. To begin With, there were, at the end of 1977, slightly more than 26 billion shares available for trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the common stocks among those shares having an aggregate market value of 771 billion. Thetotal number of Issues Involved was, roughly, 1450. Meanwhile, the common stocks In the S&P 500 had approximate market value of some 550 billion, Or 75 of the total. There were, thus, well over 1000 Issues available for trading constituting less than one-quarter of the total market value on the New York Stock Exchange. The skewed distribution of market value Is exaggerated even further by the fact that the distribution within the S&P Is Itself biased. A bit more than 80 Issues In the 500 account for some two-thirds of the market value of that . iJ!dex. Byextension,.theyaccount,l1kewJsJ3.foLhaILthe markeLv.alu,e.otaILl1sted.issues .We,'''''' I have, In other words, half the market value on the Exchange concentrated In some 80 stocks and the other half spread around among the remaining 1370. That a discrepancy between these two segments of the market could exist should not, theoretically, be all that surprising. What has been taking place, in other words, Is the exodus of rather massive amounts of dollars from the equity market scene. This has been reflected in lower prices for major listed com- panies and by lower levels for the Dow and the S&P 500. There is, however, no reason why a rela- tively small number of dollars cannot cause firm-to-upward price movement in Significant numbers of stocks even as the dollar outflow from equities continues. This is, apparently, precisely what has been taking place. There are, obviously, a large number of reasons that can be adduced for the dollar out- flow. However, certainly a major factor is the reduced level of Institutional support for equities of the sort which produced the bull markets of the 1950's and 1960's. This was a period when Institu- tlons, especially pension funds, enjoyed a huge net cash Inflow and which began with those Institu- tions relatively undercommltted to common stocks. Thus, over a period of two decades, Institutions Increased their equity commitments by investing an amount greater than their cash flow In the stock market. Equity holdings, however, reached a saturation point by the late 1960's and early 1970's. While cash Inflow continued, by and large, a smaller portion of that cash moved into stocks, thus reducing the level of institutional support. One of the results of this process was that, by 1974, the historical price level of com- mon stocks in relation to earning power had reached nearly record-low levels. Recognition of those levels, unsurprls1ngly, attracted some buying interest for equities. To date, however, that buying interest has been of a dollar amount Inadequate to 11ft the total market value of all stocks, especially those Institut.lonal-quaUty,stocks,comprlsing the bulk of l1sted'dollar valueIthas; on the other— hand, been sufficient to spread among a large number of Issues constituting a relatively small fraction of total exchange market value. Thus, the strange two-tier effect of 1977. Just how long this process can go on and what sort of market It might wind up producing Is still another fascinating question, one we hope to explore further at a later date. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p,m.) Cumulative Index (2/2/78) AWT/jb 771. 92 89.83 651. 39 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opinion or any olher matter herein contall1ed IS, or 15 10 be deemed to be, directly or Indlrectlr,' on offer or the 501lcllollon of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred to Or mentioned The matter 15 presented merely for the conVel'lenCE of Ihe subSCriber Wh, e He believe the sources of our Informo- lion to be reliable, we In no way repre5ent or guarantee Ihe accvracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action 10 be taken by the subscriber should be based on his own Inveshgatlon and InformatIOn Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its off,cers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, positions or trades In respect to any 5eCUrilies mentioned 111 thiS or any future Issue, o'ld such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thu or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh 15 regIStered ,,,11th the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give odvlCe to Its ,vestment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements made ,n th,s or In any other Issue Further Information on any secufl'y mentioned herein 15 available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 17, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 17, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - February 17, 1978
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,.- ….. –.—– – ., TABELL'S I I .i I—— — MARKET LETTER .- . – — i I I – —! eIad 1lH', .kII 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF c1U I'n,,!/ ulimll;!ome1'Y Ycoll Ync, MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE February 17, 1978 One of the most useful tools of the market analyst is introspection. This is defined by — the Oxford English-.Dictionary ,as Lthe'examinatlonor observat1onof.onesown thoughts,feellngs …………. or mental state. By being honest with oneself, it is often possible to recall thoughts, feelings or mental states at previous market tops and bottoms and to guess the imminence of a turning pOint by trying to judge whether one feels the same way at the moment. One can extend the pro- cess by attempting to gauge as well the feelings of others. If enough people feel bearish, the reasoning goes, a bottom may well be at hand. The question of how we all feel at the moment, therefore, is not entirely unrelated to the current stock market quandry. The question is, with the Dow down 25 over the past 18 months, how badly do we feel. We must, honestly, confess that we have, ourselves, not reached that level of dejection attained in, say, April, 1970 or early-October, 1974. It has been said that the ultimate copout of the technician takes place when he starts writing about fundamentals. Somewhere around past bottoms we have, historically, felt an urge to do a piece on how cheap stocks were. That urge has not yet come upon us this time around. It is, indeed, possible to read the comments of our fellow analysts and find a fair amount of pessimism reflected therein. This is particularly true of our colleagues in the techni- cal area, and yet that, really, should not be entirely unexpected. One of the basic tenets of technical work is the Simple one that a trend, once established, tends to remain in force. There can be little doubt about the rather obvious fact that the trend now in force is a downward one. The very orderliness of that downward trend has precluded any of the climactic features one would expect If the trend were about to be reversed. That technicians should be bearish, therefore, is a.hardlystlirtlingQccurre!).ce. . '., . Yet, one must examine this bearishness further. The problem is that it is all too rational — derived from logical detection of an existing trend and a concomitant absence of re- versal signals. Our colleague, Don Worden', as he so often does, puts it astutely. There are a lot of bears around, he comments, but they're the wrong kind. They're intellectual bears. We need emotional bears. He notes further regarding these cerebral indiViduals that, Before the bottom comes they will change their minds. They will be irrational in their peSSimism. By the time the final bottom comes, they won't be prepared to believe. There is a great deal of difference in acknowledging a bear market and feeling suicidal. Thus, the dilemma. Nobody, ourselves included, feels particularly suicidal, This being the case, contrary opinion would hold that one of two events will occur. Either the decline will bottom out quietly, unrecognized and largely unnoticed, or It will continue in classic fash- ion, deeper, longer and generally more horrible than anyone suspects, until such time as the tendency toward total despair becomes irresistible. And yet, we wonder. A case can be made that the current downswing, after all, pos- s esses somewhat different aspects. It comes, let It be remembered, after a 10-year period dur- ing which investors in general have become inclined to expect precious little out of the stock market. We first drew attention to the existence of a secular, flat market trend some seven years ago. That trend, and Its resultant dearth of expectations for stock market results, has become so thoroughly ingrained in the thinking of most market participants that the present decline could be viewed almost as a natural Qhenomenon. It is .shattered expectations .that producethS! most … — – – – – –…T ; – . –. — –……… —– –'- – -.-….— irrational pessimiS'ii1'at market turning points. After a decade of dullness, there may be little in the way of current expectations to be shattered. None of this says that we would expect any attempt at a low around these levels to be totally without thos e signs of a turn which have characterized past market bottoms. We ex- pressed this thought as recently as last November when we indicated that the rally then beginning failed to meet historic standards for reversal evidence. We do not, however, think that the re- versal, when it comes, will announce its presence in the sort of clarion tones that many analysts, at the moment, seem to expect. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 754.85 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 88.20 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (2/16/78) 649.25 AWT!jb No statement or expreslon of opinIOn or any other malter herein contolned is, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS preented merely for the convellenc of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our InformotlOn to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be bosed on hiS own Inve,tlgollon and information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may loter take, positions or trodes ,n repect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter eypressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment advisor, may gl'lIe adVice to Its Investment odvlsory and othel customers mdependently of ony statements made In Ih,s or In any other luue Further information on any security mentioned nereln IS avoiloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 24, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 24, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - February 24, 1978
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— ,—- .-'——— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER L ———- ,J\ 909 STATE ROO, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHA.NGe, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE February 24, 1978 We have often been fond of pointing out in this space the paradox that what does – . not' ha ppen 'in-the stocK markeels 'oftena's im-porta'nt-a's wh-atdoe'sh'appen .- W'Ei'all know'wnat'did— happen in last week's market. The major averages continued to further new lows, the Dow reaching 749.05 on Wednesday and the S & P 500 attaining a new bottom at 87.56. At current prices, the DTIA is now down some 25 percent from its low of December 31, 1976 and is at the lowest level at which it has traded since April, 1975. Despite the weakness in the averages, however, what did not happen last week was broad weakness on the part of large numbers of individual stocks or industry groups. On Wednesday, the day the major averages made their low, 44 of the S &. P industry group indices posted new lows for the period October 1 to date. More Significant, in our view, is the fact that 62, or a majority of the group indices, did not, in fact, reach new lows. A fair number of industry averages, it turns out, made their lows sometime ago at various points between October and January. Even more interesting, a fair number are up, today, by a substantial percentage from those lows, amounts ranging up to 34 percent. We are producing below a list.of the 62 groups which did not score new lows last week, together with the date their recent low was made and their percentage change from that low to last Wednesday. We think the table suggests that the decline is not as pervasive as it would appear to be and that, even in the midst of the current discouraging market environment, interesting opportunities in certain areas exist. – —–GRO'UP-'—-……——– —-1l-IIJ-1-i .O.F—-'– —.;G.R..OUP — – 1lII're OF LO-ll CHI\NGB '-rO 1-l-II-'r-e Aerospace 02-Nov-77 7.52 Machine '!boIs 26-OCt-77 16.83 Atom ic Energy 19-OCt-77 17.95 Machinery – Industr ial ll-Jan-78 1. 77 Autcrnobile 25-Jan-78 0.25 Mach & Serv–Qil Well 02-Nov-77 1. 76 Auto — Exc Gen Motors 25-Jan-78 2.85 Machinery – Composite 02-Nov-77 0.35 Auto Parts — After Mkt 26-OCt-77 0.22 Metal Fabricating ll-Jan-78 5.99 Auto Trucks & Part 18-Jan-78 0.46 Offlce Equ ipment 02-Nov-77 0.73 Beverages — Brewers ll-Jan-78 2.33 Offshore Drilling 02-Nov-77 9.18 Beverages — Distillers 26-OCt-77 6.35 Oil — Crude Prod. 02-Nov-77 11. 77 Beverages–Soft Drinks 02-Nov-77 0.59 Oil — Domestlc Integ 25-Jan-78 0.03 Bldg Matrls — Air Cond 02-Nov-77 5.38 Oil — IntI Integ Bldg Matrls — Cement 26-oct-77 8.41 Oil — Composite -ll-Jan-78 25-Jan-78 0.51 0.22 Bldg Matrls–Heat/Plumb 02-Nov'77 5.24 Pollution Control 19-OCt-77 2.88 Bldg Matrls–Roofll-Ubd 18-Jan-78 1.50 Pub ish inj 26-OCt-77 5.23 Building Matrls — Comp 18-Jan-78 2.ll Brdcastrs — Radio/TV 19-oct-77 2.70 Coal — Bituminous 26-oct-77 3.23 Real Estate 02-Nov-77 8.70 Confect ionery 18-Jan-78 6.49 Restaurants 02-Nov-77 3.87 Conglomerates 02-Nov-77 7.74 Rctil Stores — Disc. 02-Nov-77 33.96 Cantnrs — Paper 02-Nov-77 0.59 Retail Stores(drug) 18-Jan-78 3.78 Copper 07-Dec-77 0.50 Shoes 19-OCt-77 1. 74 Cosmetics 02-Nov-77 2.ll St0e — Excl Us Steel 19-OCt-77 1.68 Drugs 02-Nov-77 0.21 Sugar — Beet Ref. 18-Jan-78 3.04 Electric.l Equip 15-Feb-78 0.08 Textls — Apparel Mfrs ll-Jan-78 5. 70 Entertainment 02-Nov-77 3.58 Textiles — Synth Fibr 15-Feb-78 O. 70 – — Foods — Canned 01-Feb-78 0.74 Tobacco/Cigarette Manu 25-Jan-78 Foods Foods — DalrY Prod. –'Composite' '—-.. 01Feb-78 1.68 , Toys , '. –.. – .02-Nov77–0. 76Telephone 02-Nov-77 25.jan'78 ' Gold Mining 23-No'l-77 5.38 A.i Transport 02-Nov-77 HOOle Furnishi ngs 02-Nov-77 2.61 Truckers 18-Jan-78 1. 65 – r– 13.22 0.89 — Hospital Supplies 05-oct-77 1. 79 Insurance — Multi no 01-Feb-78 6.00 Hotel/MOtel LeisurE' Time 12-OCt-77 26.33 19-OCt-77 18. 79 Finance Cos 01-Feb-78 Real Estate Inv Trusts 25-Jan-78 0.42 1.88 – Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p. m.) Cumulative Index (2/23/78) AWT/jb 754.59 88.18 648.80 ANTHONY W TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No stalement Of expreUIQn of Opinion or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the sohCllatlon of on offer to buy or sell any se(mly referred 10 or mentioned The moiler 15 presented merely for the convel'tence of the subscriber While -He believe the sources of our Informahan 10 be rehable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action 10 be taken by the subSCriber should be bosed on hl5 own investigation and information Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as 0 corporotlon, ond Its officers or employees, may now hove, or moy lofer take, POSitiOns or trades In respect to any securllies men honed In thiS or ony future Issue, and such pOSitIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter elpressed In thiS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery 5011, Inc, which ( registered With the SEC os an Investment odvlsor, may give odvlce to tis Investment adVisory cnd othel customers tndependently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other ISsue Further mformatton on ony security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - March 03, 1978
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1 -, – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – , TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ———————— 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORk. STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK XCHANGE ——————————– March 3, 1978 This letter has made note in the past of the inordinate amount of space devoted in stock – -market c9mmntrlesto. attempts ,t9 Jor1'yastthe econollw …W-eJ!avoe repeAtectly. tae.n issue.with th.e….. ….-t conventional wisdom which states that the stock market's behavior must, somehow, be related to – changes in the statistics on business activity and have attempted to demonstrate that such exercises were, indeed, irrelevant to a stock market forecast. We have, perhaps, for purposes of emphasis, overstated this view, since, we think, the economic outlook does bear a certain limited application to the course of stock prices. We would like, however, once more to devote some space to discussing just how limited that application Is. What prompts all this was Wednesday's announcement that the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators fell by nearly 2 percent in January, which fall was seized upon In some quarters as a convenient explanation of why the stock market took Its latest plunge to new lows. It is perhaps, therefore, worthwhile to walk, step by step, through an analysis of just what this particu- lar data might mean Insofar as decisions for the stock market are concerned. First of all, the leading Indicator composite, as Its name Implies, Is precisely designed to lead, and what it is designed to lead Is the advent of an economic recession. It has relevance, therefore, only to the degree that it forecasts such receSsions. Since we are talking here about re- cessions, one fact must be firmly kept In mind, that Is, that recessions are a phenomenon officially Identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. It Is worthwhlle, then, to ask at what pOint In time recessions tend to be so identified by the Bureau, and the answer Is that, In the case of the last two at least, they were not officially so identified until after they had taken place. It is, in other words, important to distinguish between past receSSions, which are precisely dated, and future reces- sions which wlll be events, in the early stages, at least, of which we wlll not be aware even while they are happening. I,, .. ,I!n..!Iis .lAght, !US,c!' sa!Ytqk ourselyes111s-'-wh;J thedowntllt;!d1the.-!-ejling .ir!!iC3,\;,'I' – tors -means. The first possible answer-is that it means nothing at all. – 0;;';- factor which has -been noted is that the series, as presently constructed, seems, to have a downward bias in January due, prosaically, to the fact that, in that month, It often snows a lot. Not unexpectedly, this tends to have some effect on bullding activity which constitutes an input to the series. However, even without snowstorms, the index has moved down for fairly protracted periods in the past without that downward movement proving to be the harbinger of a recession. The most recent Instance was April of last year when the series moved lower for three months and did not score a new high untll August. However, there are much more extended Instances on record. In 1966, for example, the Indicator series moved down steadily from March through December and then, finally, by August of the following year, 18 months after the temporary peak, recovered to a new high. Long drops of almost as great a magnitude are fairly common. All this tells us, of course, is that the leading indicators speak in somewhat less than clarion tones. At least a few more months of continually lower numbers will be required before we are able to determine with any degree of certainty whether the index Is, in fact, giving us any signal at all, and, even then, it will not be totally certain that the signal is not, in fact, a false one. Let us, however, for the moment, Ignore these problems and assume that the composite continues to move lower over the next few months to the point where we have SOme certainty that it is, Indeed, trying to tell us something. What, then, will It be telling us Unfortunately, the only thing that we will know for a certainty at that time Is the fact that the Index scored a peak In December, 1977. Since the index Is expressly designed to lead, that fact wlll simply point to the probabllity of a business cycle expanSion peak sometime after December, 1977. overLooking at the past six recessions, we find the lead tllnes.have varied from.fou!,to 3 monthsand thaL -,.- the ave;age lad'time I a bit oneYear. Thlslead;-of course, w1ll have to be carried forward from December, 1977. In summary, then, the significance of the January downturn can be summarized as follows. It is possible, although by no means certain, that, by late this spring, we may have a fairly hard idea that the leading Indicators are saying something about the possibility of an end to business expansion. That end wlll have taken place no earlier than the time of the Signal, say Mayor June, and may, in- deed, be as late as sometime during 1979. This all may be modestly useful Information, but it Is nec- essary to examine its relevance In some detail as far as stock prices are concerned. This we propose to do next week. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 746.36 87.30 ANTHONY W . TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (3/2/78) 649.15 AWT/jb – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -No statement or expressIon of OPinIon or ony olher motter herem wnloJned IS, or IS to be deemed to. be, d!TJl!dJy or mdJfedly, on offer or Ihe sollcltotlon of On offer 10 buy Of sell ony security referred to or mentioned The motter IS presented merely for the (onve!'lenc!; of the subscriber Whlle ….e believe the sources of our Informa lion 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guarontee the otcurocy thereof nor of Ihe statements mude herem Any action to be token by the subSCriber shOuld be based on hiS own Investlgallon and Informallo) Janney Montgamery Seall, Inc, a 0 corparatlon, and Its afflcers or employees, may naw have, or may later toke, poslhon or trades In respect to any Secuntles mentioned In thiS ar any future ISSUe, and such pOSition may be different from ony views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS reglslered With Ihe SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ,ts Investment ody,sory and other C'Ustomers Independently of any !tolement! made In thiS Or In any other luue. further Information on ony security mentioned herein IS ovollable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - March 10, 1978
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– –..–… — —-. – – —-I, TABELL'S I MARKET \ LETTER \ j ——————- 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08!540 DIVISION OF PwIIEM8ER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, tNC MEMBEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe March 10, 1978 We should, we suppose, in an effort to remain au courant with the juiciest tidbits of flnan- cialnews ,deyote this space toocommenting ,on.the dl'lcline)n the valJ.\e of the.dollarinowprldloreig!) .,, exchange markets. Since this is a technical letter, the burden of such a comment would undoubtedly be, a) that the declining dollar probably explains nothing useful whatsoever as far as stock prices are concerned, and b) that, if it does, it explains why stock prices have lost one-quarter of their value in the past 16 months rather than anything pertinent regarding the future. We started last week, how- ever, on a discussion of the recent downturn in the Department of Commerce's index of leading indica- tors and, in the interests of consistency, will conclude this discussion this week. The general con- clusions will be about the same as those regarding the declining dollar above. As we tried to suggest in last week's discussion, the principal difficulty with using the lead- ing indicator composite is one of chronology. We noted that the earliest date that the index could tell us anything useful whatsoever would be late spring, around Mayor June. At that pOint, the only use- ful piece of information it could afford us would be that an economic recession might have just recently begun or, more likely, was about to begin within the next six months to' one year. We further pOinted out that the official recognition of such a recession, if it were to occur, would probably not take place until after the recession was over, I.e., probably sometime in 1979. The problem is further compounded by the fact that stock prices in the past have generally peaked well before the onset of any recession and, by the time that recession is underway, have often been well on their way to their ultimate low. The following table gives the dates of the last six recog- nized economic recessions and shows the date of the previous peak in stock prices, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on that date and that peak's lead on the recession peak in months. Following this is -Th ethfelnleYvecolluomfrit.heshD-6owws-atht ethpeesrctaernttaogfeth6eItrheceedsesciollnneancd; the date and the Dow ;mpleted'bythe time o iattlltehercseuSSbisoneq'su;e;;nrtts'l-o'weC-.t-.-t-…. As can be seen, a goodly portion of the decline tends to be over with by the time any economic con- tra ction ha s beg un. Stock P ric e Peak DJIA at Stock Price Low Mos. Recess. Decline Completed Recession Date Date DlIA Lead Start Date DIIA at Recess ion Start Nov 1948-0ct 1949 Jun 1948 193.16 6 171.20 Jun 1949 161. 60 70 July 1953-May 1954 Jan 1953 293.79 6 275.38 Sep 1953 255.49 48 Aug 1957-Apr 1958 Aug 1956 520.95 12 484.35 Oct 1957 419.79 36 Apr 1960-Feb 1961 Jan 1960 685.47 4 601.70 Sep 1960 569.08 72 Dec 1969-May 1970 Dec 1968 985.21 12 800.36 May 1970 631. 16 52 Nov 1973-Mar 1975 Jan 1973 1051. 70 10 822.25 Dec 1974 577.60 48 Still further complications arise from the fact that the present downswing in stock pnces is now 18 months old and that it leads the earliest possible peak in the leading indicator composite by some 16 months. This is a good deal longer lead time, as the table shows, than has been the case in past recessions, suggesting the possibility, at least, that what we are seeing at the moment is a stock market decline unaccompanied by any associated economic pullback. Such a phenomenon is, it should be noted, not entirely without historical precedent. Investors with long memories will recall that the DJIA dropped some 27 between December, 1961 and June, 1962. It was, at that time, the most severe 'drop in stock prices that had been recoided in 20 years'. Later;–stock priC.,s dropped almost as severe-' ly in 1966. There was no downturn in business activity even remotely associated with either fall. Interestingly enough, both periods in question saw declines in the leading indicator series not dissimilar to the soft that may have begun last December. The problem was that the recession the market was looking for Simply never materialized. It is not our intention to suggest that the analYSis of economic activity is a totally useless exercise for the stock market forecaster. It seems to us, however, that a rigorous examination of past relationships of economic indices to stock price data is necessary before drawing firm conclusions. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (3/9/78) AWT/jb 754.42 88.38 657.15 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opmion or any other moIler herein contained IS, Of IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitatIOn of on offer to buy or sell any lecunty referred 10 or mentioned The maiter I presented merely for the converlence of the subSCriber Whde we believe the sources of our Informa tlon to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the occuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any aellon 10 be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own mvellgahOn ond Infarmohon Jonney Montgomery Scofl, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employeel, moy now have, or may later toke, pOlltlons or trades In respect to ony securities mentioned In thiS ar any future Issue, ond such position may be different from ony views now or hereafter efpressed In thiS or any other Issve Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS reglslered wllh the SEC as on IIlvestment adVisor, may give adVice to lIs Investment adVisory and othel ontomers IIldependently at any statements mode in thiS or III any other Issue further InformatIon on any securrty mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 17, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 17, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - March 17, 1978
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.——– — TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 17, 1978 , Something started to happen this week. It has not yet followed through, but, with further market strength, could do so shortly. In any case, the market appears to be approaching a critical its-actibn-wlllbewortI1Watching – ;'—– – –'– What prompts the above comments Is the action of the Dow In relation to Its computed down- trend channels. Our readers will be aware that It is our practice to try to quantify trends mathemati- cally rather than Simply drawing them by ruler on a chart. On this basis, two downtrend channels have recently contained the DJIA, the first starting at the December 31, 1976 high of 1004.65, and the second computed from the more recent November 11, 1977 high. These two channels are plotted on the chart below INTERMEDIATE &MINOR COMPUTED DOWNTRENDS – DJIA – IS. 197B .-r- .AI 1m Ft!J 1977 IIAt 19 Apt 1'77 1t1I1 1977 .!UN Jtn ..1L 1977 IIJG 1977 SEr' 1977 IICT 1977 ICW' 1977 The most significant channel, of course, Is the one covering all of 1977-78 so far, signified by the solid line on the chart. As the chart shows, the market has rallied to the top of this channel on five separate occasions but has never been able to penetrate it decisively. Likewise, it has touched the bottom of the channel numerous times, and In each case, a significant rally has occurred. The same of the shorter-term channel extending-back to last-NovembeI'. As can be seen, at the end of February the Dow once more touched the bottom of the intermediate channel and, precisely from that pOint, commenced a rally. In the process of that rally, the Dow moved above the minor downtrend channel and has now closed above it on four consecutive days. This penetration cannot yet be considered decisive. For this to be the case, the average would have to remain above the channel limit for the next week or so or close, in this case, ten points or more above it. This could happen if the Dow remained strong or firm for the rest of this week. Weaknes at this stage, on the other hand, would simply signify the continuation of the downswing which has contained the index for the past fifteen months. Dow-Jones Industrials (1100 p.m.) 763.25 ANTHONY W TABELL S & P Composite (1100 p.m.) 89.60 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index 670.128 No statement or expression of opinion or ony olher motter herein COnlolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, dlrcctly or indirectly, on offer or the SOirCltatlon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The molTer IS presenled merely for The converlenc!; of the subscnber While Ne believe the sources of our Informa- lion to be reliable, we In no woy represenl or guarantee Ihe occurocy thereof nor of Ihe slatements mude herCIn Any oc'lon to be token by Ihe subscriber should be bosed on hi, own Invesllgollon and Information Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, os a corporation, and tis officers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, posltfons or trades In respect to any mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In Ihl5 or any other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered with Ihe SEC os on II'Ivestment adVisor, may give advue to Its II'Ivestment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any OTher Issue Further Information on oy setvnly mentioned herein IS available on request

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