Tabell’s Market Letter – July 14, 1950

Walston-Hoffman & Goodwin' '..,. , ;; SAN FRANCISCO, CALIF. NEW YORK, N. Y. PHILADELPHIA, PA. LOS ANGELES, CALIF. BAKERSFIELD BEVERLY HILLS EAST ORANGE, N. J. HARTfORD, CONN. LONG BEACH MODESTO OAKLAND RIVERSIDE SACRAMENTO SAN DIEGO SAN JOSE EUREKA FRESNO HAGERSTOWN, MD. HARRISBURG, PA. PASADENA PITTSBURGH, PA. PORTLAND, ORE. SANTA ANA. SEATTLE, WASH STOCKTON VAllEJO TABELL'S MARKET LEnER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 6, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 HOTEL WALDORFASTORIA PL… 9-6860 The Ldustrial average reached ,1eW low territory 0, Thursday at an , 'itra-day low of 195.40. This is apprOXil;13.tely a 48 retraceme,-,t of the adL va.1ce from the June, 1949 lows. The rail average held stubbor'11y above the , . '50.66 low reached C' June 27th, l'lhich was a 44 retracement of the oe year' 11 . adva'1ce, The low of last week was 51,75. The fact that the i1dustrial aver, ',age met support at the expected 195 level, plus the divergent action of the two averages gives credence to the probability that the market has reached ,its low for the interrr,ediate phase. The short term indicator registered a buy signal at Thursday's close ;of 197.44. Trading purchases appear justified on minor dips. The iter mediate term indicator is deeply oversold but has not as yet registered a buy signal. Some further time may be required for this longer term indicator to confirm the change in trend. Expect further wide swings on news developments but, at last week's lows, it would appear that the market had piscounted the worst that could be expected at the moment. A probable pattern would be an attempt to rally to the 210-212 area followed by consolid tion in the 210-205 area. The outer limits could be stretched to 215 and OQ. , This week's market was featured by the diverse action of various groups with trader's selling those issues that would appear vulnerable in a ' , defense or semi-war economy and buying issues that Iwuld not be particularly; hurt by a partial imposition of excess profits taxes,controls, allecations ' , .and the various anti-inflationary devices of the 1942-1945 period. Actually ' the market is trying to discount something that hasn't yet happened and may or may not happen. This becomes an even more hazardous operation when it s not certain that the patterns of World War II will be followed in the evellt ' ..that we approach a defense or partial war economy. ', 'l'he market of the past week has favored rails, steels, su;ars, tex, ;–',;tile's ;-metals. aircrafts, airlines,- oils, retails and-ot-her ,groups with i'strong tax bases and earnings prospects. A great many of these issues held , above the late June lows last week, even though the industrial average propped ten pOints lower. For near term-trading purchases, these issues appear attractive. I have listed below a number of these issues, together , with the lows of late June. A downside penetration of these lows would jni dicate a change in the now favorable trend. Allis Chalmers (28 3/4). Aluminum Co. (54 3/8), American Airlines (9 5/8), American Car & Fdry (22), Arner. Export Lines (17), Amer. Sugar (46), Amer' Woolen (23 1/8) Anderson Clayton (55),-Armco Steel (34), Acchison, Top, ' , & S.F.(108 Atlantic Coast Line (42), Bethlehem Steel (33), Black & Decker (262 ), BOhn Aluminum (24)/Bullard f17) Burlington Mills (19) California Pack (37) Chicago Great West (134) Chicago,Mil.St.Paul,pfd. (28 3/8) Chicago & Northwest.(ll) Chicago Pneumatic (26 lj8),ChiCago, ;, Rock Island (36 3/4) Colorado Fuel (15i) Columbian Carbon (302 ) Conti- 1 '; nental Motors (5 7/8) Del. Lack & West (7)' Denver & Rio Grande West (242 ), Eastern Air (13 5/8) Eastern Stainless Steel (12) Elastic Stop Nut (8) ; Electric Boat (l6i) Fansteel Ietal (11 7/8) Francisco Sugar (lli) Georgia, Pacific Plywood (11 3/4) Gulf,Mobile & Ohio (12 7/8) Illinois Central , (35 3/8) Ingersoll Rand (63) Interlake Iron (13 1/8) International Har- . i vester (25 1/8) Jones &; Laughlin (30 1/8) Kansas City Southern (44.) '' Kennecott COI;lper (52 3/4) Lockheed Air (28 1/8) Lowenstein (25) Mesta !' Machine (38t) Missouri-Kansas-Texas pfd (22) National Lead' (40i) Newport! Ind (10 3/4) New York Shipbuilding P6) Northern Pacific Rvry (17) ,' Northwest Air (8) Pacific Mills ..(302) Pan American Air (8) Phelps Dodge (47) Pitts. Consol Coal (24) Pressed Steel Car (7 3/8) Pullman (31 3/4) Revere Copper (20) Reynolds Metals (21) Rheem Mf (22) Richfield Oil i, ' (40 1/8) St.Louis-San Fran ( 9 7/8) Schenley (31) Seaboard Air (26 1/8) Shamrock Oil (24) Shell Oil (39i) Sinclair (24) Southern Pacific (49) Southern Rwy (32 3/4) SI;lerry (27 3/8) Std.Oil of Ind. (46 1/8) Tenn.Corp. (Hi) Texas Co. (62 5/8) Texas & Pac. Rwy (48) Thompson Prod. (52) UEion Oil of Calif.(25 5/8) Union Pacific (81) United Airlines (13 3/8) United Aircraft (27 1/8) U.S.Foil (15) U.S.Freight (14 3/4) U.S.Steel (31) Vanadium (25) West Va. Coal & Coke (12 5/8) Western Air (7i) Western Md Rwy.(13) vlest.Md. pfd (28) West Union Tel A (253/4) Weston Elec.(23) Wheeling Steel (26 1/8) White Motor (17) Woodward Iron (35). ,. Jllly 14. 1950 EDMUND W.TABELL This memorandum Is not to be construed as an offer or solldtatlon of off.n to buy or lell any securities From time to time Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may have an Intered In lome or all of te securities mentioned herein. The foregoing material has been prepared by us as a matt.r of Information only. It Is based upon Information b.nned r.nable blrt not nocessarily compl.te, Is not glUlranteed as accurate or final, lind II not Intended to foredose Independent Inquiry. u …. ,… . . . . . . . . . , ,….,,'…… , ………., ; , .. .. ………………..