Viewing Month: May 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 03, 1948
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Technical Market Action The market was stronger on Monday and the rnil nvernge reached a neH high for the nove at 59.21. The rail average is now approximtely five points 9.bove its previous high of Jnnuary ilhile t.'1e imiustrials, at Monday's closE. of 181.09, are still over seven points below their July 1947 hiGh of 187.66. EvEir since September the rails have been the leaders in every advance just s they Vlere in the 1942-l9Ji' tull market. Monday's streneth in the rails Toay inclic!ltEJ an end of the ninor correction of the upswinG from Mo.rch ond an (lttempt by the industrials to confirn the rail penetration and signal a new bull r.arket. I an still of the opinion that the industrial averace l'Ii11 reach 195-200 before a full one-third to one-half correction of the advance from the February-March lows. However, if this hypothesj proVtlS to be incorrect, it would only require ('. further dip to 178-175 to oomplete a one-third correction of the 19 point advance from 165 to 184. Continue to ndvis a fully invested position in recommended issues. Celotex Corporation was recomnended for purch6.Se at, 28 1/2. Last sale WIJ.S Z7.3/4. The 1946-1948 runge wus38 l/S hiroh and 19 7/8 low. This insulating muterj issue has on excellent potential teclmical pattern with a seeuin;,; hec.d and shoul- ders bottom for1llJ.tion e.t the points 23,20 and 23 'Ihich were the bottOr.IS reached October 1946, Me.y 1947 and February 1948. Ability to reo.ch 31 would he extrenely constructive ond penetration to 34 would confirm the entire technicn.! pattern and indicate 5ubstantiIJ.l1y hiCher levels. The stock r.ppears to be a very interesting speculation. Purchase is adVised. ' Certain-teed Products Vias recently recoIlll1ended for purchlJ.se at 16 3/4 Last sale was 16 1/8. The 1946-1948 range waa.25 7/8 high and 11 5/8 low. This stock also has a potentially attractive pattern. No uptrend signal has yet been Given. A penetration to 20 would be favorable and 22 would confirm the fornation as stronely bullish. Believe the stock to be a eood speculative purchase. Chicago North Vlestern Railway has bew in and out of our list on several occasions. The last purchase recomIlendation was nade at 18 3/8. The lst sale WIJ.S 18, and the 1946-1948 ranee was 43 1/2 hig.'1 and 13 1/2 loVi. This stock has been a lagGard in the rail group and is still selling close to its low of the last four years. However, the technical patt.ern, Vlhile it has given no definite upside indication, has the e.ppearance of being in the process of fomine a very large base pattern. The stock is speculative but has extrene leverage. It sold as high as 49 1/2 in 1945 and paid ,5.00 in dividends in 1944 IJ.nd 3.00 in 1945. 1.00 was p!lid both in 1946 and 1947. The stock appears to be a good speculative purchase blJ.sed on the possibility of large potential percentage appreciation if the technical pattern is confirned as bullish. 20 anel 24 ere important upside confirnation points. Cities Service Con an Vias originally recoMmended for purchase at 28 liz. The last sale \1as 50 1 4 and the 1946-1948 rtCll;e WIJ.S 50 1/4 hi;;h IJ.Dd 20 1/4 low. The hiGh was reached last week and aGain on Monday. The lonGer term technical indicationn on this issue point to ultinately hiher levels but the intermediate tern bose formed in the September 1947 to March 1948 perioG suggests a rally to the 49-51 area. This area has been entered and it tlould seem advisable to take profi ts as, from a technical viewpoint, it Vlou1d appear thnt at h'ast a con501idting period is needed to Luild up further base area. This r.lD.y take ti;Je and in the neanwhile other recor.mended issues may show more price advance. I an temporarily dropping Cities Service fron the recommended list. Colorado Fuel & Iron was originally reconnended for purchase in the 12-10 buying rnnee. The last sale was 15 1/4 and the 1946-1948 rante Vias 23 3/4 high and 10 1/4 low. The stock is a rather slow moving issue but it appears to be in a definite uptrend with low full figure points of 11, 12 and'l) on the three declineS since September 1946. The successive highs have been 16 and 18 nnd it would appear that the last hibh will be topped on this phase of the advance. Colunbia Gas stem waS recommended in our special letter of Februar,y The IlJ.st sale Vias 12, and the 1946-1948 rane was 14 high and 8 1/2 low. In line with the change of operations of the. company, the name hlJ.s been changed from Colunbia Gas & Electric to the present title. The company is a natural gas holding company. The stock is not a vollJ.tile performer but the techni- cal po.ttern is excellent and a slow but steady percentage rise is indiclJ.ted. Purchase is advised. Crown Cork & Seal was recomnended in the equivalent of a 17 1/2-16 1/2 j Pbuying range on the basis of the new stock. The last sale was Zl 3/4. While the issue has a favorable technical pattern, its upside indications are not as rreat as other issues in our recoomended list. Suggest taking profits and switching into Electric Power & Light, Celotex or Square D. EDMUND II. TABELL The optnhmS expressed in this Jetter are 1M penonaf j!1S 0& PnNY Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not prosen.ed N the opinions of SJrields & CompMt).

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 05, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 05, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 05, 1948 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - May 05, 1948 page 2
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. ' . -. ., .. .,- , – … ,' , ' Technical Market Action One of the major tenets of the Dow Theory is the principle of the confirmation of a trend by both the industrial ru1d rail average before a major move is indicated. A corollary, of course, is that a divergence in the two itvernges usually indicates a probable change in trend. In the past, this' particular phase of the Dow Theory has been subject to considerable criticism. The main objection was that the fueory of confirmation was outmoded bec(.use of the growing importance of the industrial average ad the lessening importru1ce of the rr.ils. At times these objections seemed partially justified at least. On several occasions, the industrial average moved nhead sharply and the rails either fniled to confirm by reaching new high territory,or else the confirmation oocurred after the major portion of the move had already been completed. However, in the past two years the theories of confirmation and divergence have worked out almost perfectly. In February of 1946 the industrial average reached a hi6h of 207.24 and the high on the rails was 6E1.42. This WIlS followed by the sharp February decline with the averages reachin'! lows of 184.05 and 59.86. Subsequently, both averages nlllied with the industrials in the lead and the rails 'lagging. This was contrary to previous performance. Since the inception of the bull market in early 1942, the rails had been the leaders in each advancing phase. The industrials penetrated their February hih in late Jepril but the rails failed to confirm. It was this divergence that prompted this letter to advise extreme caution and to predict in the letter of May 6th, 1946 that the potential distributional area built up in early 1946 indicated a possible decline to the 170-160 area in the industrial average. Ever since the September 1946 break I have conSistently stressed this same 170-160 area as a major buyine range. It has proven to be such for the past nineteen months. To continue with the action of the market in early 1946, the industrial average reached a high of 213.36 in Ide May, 6.12 pOints above the February hig!' of 207.24. The rails, however, could do no better than penetrate the February high of 68.42 by only a small fraction to reach 68.77. This divergence between the two averages proved t.o be an extremely important signal of a chanGe in trend. Subsequently, both averages penetrated the February 1017s of 184.05 ru1d 59.86 to confirm a downtrend. The averages declined to 160.49 and 44.00 in October. That provad to be low for the first phase of the decline. The next rallying phase carried to highs of 184.96 and 53.65 in February of 1947. It will be noted that the industrials reached the lOGical resistance point, the bottom of the 213-185 distribution area, but the rails failed to reach the equivalent 59, the bottom of the 68-59 distribution area. The next intermediate decline was the second instance of diverence. In May, 1947 the rail average declined to a neVi lovi at 40.43, 3.57 points belov; the October low of 44.00. The industrial average, hor-ever, failed to confirm a renewal of the downtrend bw holding above the previous October low of 160.49. The May,1947 10Vl was 161. 38 The third instance of divergence occurred at the July 1947 hiehs. The industrial average penetrated the February high of 184.96 to reach 187.66. The rail average failed to confirm, however, by attaininc a high of only 51.92 against the February hih of 53.65. h subsequent decline carried the avereges to lows of 174.02 for the industrials in September and 46.00 for the rails in December 1947. After that, the fourth instance of divergence occurred in early January of this year at 54.17. The industrial average failed to rcach the July, 1947 hith of 187.66 by 5.84 points at 181.82. . ….! ,r The opinions expreued in this I.tter are the personal interprotation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Taben and re not pr,!sented as the opinions of Shield, & Company. Technical Market Action -2- The subsequent decline as the fifth instance of divergence. The in- dustrial ave rase broke the September, 1947 low of 174.02 and declined to e. loVi of 164.07 in February. The ril average held at a point aboe the December 1947 lovi and met support at 1.7.48. It ill be noted that, for the first time since the 1942-1946 bull market, the rail average showed better technical action than the industrials. The sixth occurrence of divergence is the present technical P1Cttel'n. The rail average has decisively penetrated all previous resistance points of the last ninetee months to reach a hieh of 59.63 on lesday, 5.46 points above the previous January high of 54.17, or e. penetration of apprOximately 10. On the other hand, the industrials at the April 23rd high of 184.48 t.nd WendesdDY's closin of 180.94, have failed to confirm the excellent tcchnical. r-.ction of the rail average. That brings us up to de,te. Will the industrial averat;e shortly confirm the penetre.tion of the nineteen month tradinci range und prove the theory con- Sistently advocated by this letter that the market 1s in a hi1,;h accumulation areo.' .Vli th considerably higher prices indica ted over the lon;er term y opinion has definitely not changed. I believe that the industrial avera;;e will, over the comparatively !lear term, confirm the bullish pttern of the reil averaGe. The only question is whether the confirmation will take place in the very near future or at a slie;htly Ie.ter dcte. In other words, will \;e get a one-third to one-half correction of the 20.41 point advance of the indus- t!'ial avera;e from the 'February low of 164.07 to the April hir.h of 184.48 immediately Such a correction would carry the industrial average to 173-175. The second a1 ternative would be a penetration of the July hieh of 187.66 and a rally to the 200-195 area before a technical correction occurs. t. one-third to one-half correction from that point would carry the industrial cverage bLck to the 188-180 area. Ability to penetrate the previous high of 184.48 Vlould indi- cate the probability of 200-195. Penetration of last week's 10Vi of 179.47 on the indus trials would favor the possibility of 178-175 before the advance is resumed/ May 5, 1948 EDMUND H. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Sto'ck 180.94 57.97 66.91 n.. opinions expreued in this letter ere tIM, personal Tnterpretetion of cherts by Mr. fd….nd W. Tabel! end … no! n'ed .. ' opinion. of Shield. a. CompanY.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1948
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Technical Market Action Glancing through the approximately fifteen hundred issues in my chart portfolio, one is immediately struck by the many diverse tech.icl patterns in individual issues. With the Dow-Jones industrial average holding in an extremely narrow trading range of less than 17 for almost twen montils, many individual issues hav advanced over 100. Most of the issues with sharp advances have been in the oil croup. J. few have been rails. On the other hand, niany issues in other groups are sellinl; lower tod.y than they were at the May lows of emost a year aGo despite a rise of more than twenty points in the averages. Seldom has there been a period when stock selection has been more important. IVhile the technical formations of individual issues have quite different patterns, they fall roughly into three categories. The first group includes issues that have spent a considerable time in a trading range building up a base pttern and have penetrated the base area on the upside to indicate an uptrend. Issues in this croup are at various stages of their development. Some are quite close to their uptrend objectives while others still have a considerable distpce to go. One common characteristic of this group is tilat they all are considerably above the 10Vis of the past twenty months. Many of them are above the 1946 hiGhs. The second group consists of those issues that reached their low points in he early part of the twenty-month trading range but are still in the process of forming a potential base pattern. They are selling below their FebruarY 1947 or July 1947 highs. The third croup consists of issues that have made tl'leir 10Vis only recently and have formed little or no base pattern. It would appear that considerably more time must be spent in a narrow trading ranGe before these issues are ready to move. It Vlould seem that the best buying opportunities at the moment ar in the second clasificction. These issues have already gone through the preliminary work of buildinc up a base pattern. While the timi.nr; of the start of their upswing is uncertain, it lVould appear that over the irttermediate term they could show considerable price enhancement. It must be remembered that the oil group spent a conSiderable period of time in backing and filling in a narrow,trading range building up a base. It ViaS during that time that the oils were recommended in'thiB letter. In fact, the oils were by far the largest section of our recommendid list. While some patience was required, the upslnnc in this group was substantial. Tne Greater part of the advance has occurred recently. Listed below are issues witil Similar potential base patterns to those of the oil group. In all cases, the potential upside indication is approximately double tile present price. In all cases, tile stocks are still in a narrow trading ran(;c and are not far away from the loVis of the last twenty months. In most instances, they are iesues of lesser known conpanies. Possibly that is one re.son, wi th the still low public market enthUSiasm, that they are behind the market. Purchases should be made, if possible, in the lower part of the trading range. Last Sale Alpha Portland Cement 28 3/4 Byers (ll.M.) Canada Dry 22 13 1/2 Carrier Corp 16 Ce10tex 27 3/4 Certain-teed 16 3/g Chic.Mil.St.P.Ser.A.pf 32 7/8 C\'1iCG.!;o North West 1 1/8 Consol.R.R.Cuba,pfd 23 1/4 Copperl'leld Steel 15 5/8 Eagle Picher Co 241/4 Eastern Air Lines 19 3/8 Eastern Stainless Steel 17 3/4 Fansteel Metal 14 3/8 Hewitt Robbins Corp 25 5/8 1946-19/.8 Range 39 7/8-25 35 1/-13 3/ 19 3/4-12 7/8 34-13 5/ 3 1/8-22i 25 7/S-13 1/8 82 3/4-30 43 1/2-14 3/4 47-161/2 2-1 30 1/8-19 33 3/8-16 1/8 61-163/4 42-10 5/8 391/2-21 Las 1946-1948 Sale Ran.fe Holland Furnace 27 5/S ll./S Inter.Tel & Tel 13 1/2 31 7/S-11t Masonite 61 1/2 75-47 1/2 Mesta Machine 42 6111-36 Minn.St.P.& SS 12 1/2 26 3/8-91/8 N.Y.Air Brake 39 1/2 -36 PacifiC Mills 38 lis 48-2 1/2 Pitts. Coke & C 13 l/Z 157/8- 'It Rheem Mfg 21 1/2 38-19 Schenley Dist. 2 5/ lOO-25t Spiegel,Inc. 12 3/ 39 7/8-77/8 Timken Detroit 21 27 3/8-l6JAj Victor Chern 40 1/2 53-36 1/4 Western PaCific 34 3/ 5-27 Zeni th RadiO 24 3/8 42 8-191/8 May 10, 194 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY opinions expressed in fhll letter ero the personal Interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tebel! and are not presented as the opinions of Shields &. CDmpany.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 13, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 13, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 13, 1948
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Technical Market Action In the past, this letter has repeatedly dra1ll attention to the favorable technical patterns of issues in the oil and rail groups. Both of ese groups have sho1ll excellent price advances regardless of tile fact that the in- dustrial averuge is still in the comparatively narrow trading range of the last twenw months. In looking over the formations of individuul issues in an e.ttempt to find other groups with equally favorable patterns, the building m.terials group is indice.ted us a likely candidate. This group appears to be. in the same technical phase now as the oils e.nd rails Vlere in several monthsago.TheStandard & Poors' Building Materials Stock Average has held in a range of approximately 137 high and 106 lov; for the past twenty months. The average as of May 12th IYRS bout 128. Individual issues in the group have approximately the same pattern. It would appeal that the group is in a long accumulation period e.nd that an upside penetre.tion would indicate substantially higher levels. Listed below are a number of issues in the group with potentially fuvorable patterns. The ability to reuch the price in the next to the last column would confirm the potentln11y bullish pattern. The price in the last column is the long term objective. These patterns appear to coincide, for example, with the pattern in Barnsde11 Oil which VIas recommended in the low 205. The stock built up a base pattern in the 21-25 area for ten months. The indicated long term objective was 41.-45 on an upside panetrat'on to 26. The penetration occurred in June, 1947 and the stock recently made a high of 44 5/8. Approx. 1947 1947 Price Dv. 19461948 Ran.!e Bullish Upside Confirm Potential Alpha Po'rtland Cement 28 3.05 2.00 39 7/8-25 ,)6 56 Americrun Radiator American Seating 15 1.90 1.00 23 – 12t 23 2.52 1.00 33 1/2 -l 18 24 24-28 41. f… M. Byers 23 4.92 .50 35 1/8 – 15 24 48 Carrier Corp 17 3.47 34 – 13 5/8 22 34 Celotex Corp 29 6.59 1.12 38 1/8 – 22t 33 75 Certain-Teed 17 1/2 3.75 .60 25 7/8 – 13 1/8 22 42. Crane & Co 37, 5.17 2.60 49 5/8 – 29 37 53 Devoe & Raynolds 25 5.62 1.60 39 1/2 – 22 1/2 32 60 Eagle Picher 23 1/2 4.05 1.50 30 1/8 – 19 26 46 Flintkote 37 1/2 6.27 1.50 46 7/8 – 25 1/2 40 72 Holland Furnace Johns Manville .28 4.10 2.00 40 1/2 – 21 1/8 33 39 3.23 1.40 55 '1/8 – 341/4 47 . 66 65 Lehigh Portland Cement 34 3.78 1.50 55 3/4 – 30 3/8 40 50 Lone Star Cement 65 6.68 4.25 94 – 57 1/2 72 95 Masonite 64 7.30 2.00 75 – 47 1/2 Minneapolis Honeywell 48 4.00 68 1/4 – 45 64 67 110 106 \ otis Elevator 31 4.06 1.35 39 1/2 – 26 34 63 u. S. Plywood 32 3.8Qlf .80, 39 1/2 – 20 1/2 .54 '– 35 / Both averages reachf;d new high territory for the move on Thursday at intra-day highs of 185.40 for the industrials and 60.16 for the rails. The closings were 184.82 and 59.91. The penetration of the April 23rd high of 184.48 on the indstrials appears to be importnnt and suggests an imminent testing of the July 1947 intra-day high of 187.66. The equivalent high based on the closing price was 186.85. Ability to penetrate the July 1947 high would confirm the fact tilat we heve been in a bull market sin ce M. 1947. 9 mos.to January EDMUND W. TABELL May 13, 1948 &The optnions exprestfM In this fetter are the penoMfSHfftIieErpLrDetlSffon COMPANY of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. TobeY ond oro not e d …… opinIoN 01 SlHeId '-nY.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 14, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 14, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 14, 1948
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Technical Market Action On transactions of 3,840,000 shares, the heaViest volume since the fall of Frrnce in May 1940, the Dow-Jones industrial average mllied 3.78 on Friday nnd definitely penetrr'tod bothtlle intra-dr..y high end closing high of July 1947. The July 1947 figures were 187.66 wd 186.85. The intra-d high on Frid2y was 188.93 and the close vms 188.60. The penetration of the July highs by the industrial average confirms n prior confirmation by the rail average and indicetes, under the Dow Theory, th.t we have been in e. bull market since May of 1947. ing be-ck over the past fifty years, W8 have had thirtee,n bull markets. This present market makes the fourteenth. The average price e.dve.nce from confirmation to bull market peak \las 69. This, in the case of tll.e presetlt market, would mean a price of over 300 in the industrial average. The smallest rise in the fifty yee.r period was 9 1/2 in the short lived 1939 bull market. That Iould be about 205 in terms of the present market. The l.'l.rgest e.dvp.nce was about 300 in the 1923-1929 markd. That would mean ubout 745 in terms of the present market. My ultimate objective for th.e present market is 250-260, an objective mentioned several times in this letter in the last few months. ObViously, this objective will be interrupted by numerous technical corrections. Would expect the present advancing phas to carry to 195-200 to be followod by technical correction. /' It is quite grutifying, after reiterating time after time for twenty months that I believed the 160-170 area to be a long term buying range, to hve my prediction work out. Now that the bull market is confirmed, I will have to admit I was a little scared several times when the averages dipped down near the lows. However, the technical patterns proved correct and I run glad we had the courage to believe them instead of following the general mass fear t'sychosis. May 14, 1948 EDMUND vi. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 188.60 62.25 70.29 Errata In the letter of May 13th, the 1947 earnings of Minneapolis Honey- ;;e11 were stated as 11.21. The correct earnings were 5.10. Also, columns on U.S.Plywood should be reversed. EVIT The opJnloft. 'n Is letter are the personal interpretation of charts by '-ny.IN. Edmond W. TabelJ ond …. not pnbenled .. rho opinions 01 Shields &

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1948
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F Technical Market Action The market continued its rise on Saturday and Monday but the rate of advance was-slower and there were periods of profit taking.The industrial average reached a high of 191.39 on Saturday and reacted to a low of 188.37 early Monday. The subsequent rally carried to an intra- day high of 191.00 and a closing of 190.42. The rails 'reached a high of I 63.07 on Saturday, reacted to a low of 61.12 and subsequently rallied to ' 62.49, closing at 62.27. Expect the advance to continue but believe it will be more selective than heretofore. The industrials should meet resistance in the 195M 200 area. The rails are in a resistance area now in the 62-63 zone. Probabilities favor a good trading market with individual issues moving ahead while the market consolidates. It must be remembered that we are now in a long term uptrend both in rails and industrials and perids of weakness should be welcomed as an opportunity to add to hod- ings. ' Recently I attempted an alphabetical review of my list of recommended issues but the market turned active and forced me to abandon the short paragraph review of each issue after reaching only the stocks beginning with C. Therefore, I am reprinting the list below together with the originally recommended price level and the last sale. I am eliminating the following issues from the list because either the issues have about reached indicated objectives or they have developed an uncertain pattern. The issues eliminated are Deep Rock Oil recommended at 37, last sale 39, Evans Products recommended at 16-18, last sale 20, International Paper recommended at 51 1/4,last sale 60 3/4. Pure Oil recommended at 23 7/8, last sale 40. (Its actual objective is 43-45. Standard Oil of N.J. recommended at 66 5/8, last sale 80 5/8. Union Pacific recommended at 136, last sale 188. Suggest switching into issues in our recommended list during periods of market irregularity Our complete recommended list of issues follows below. The following figure, in paranthesis, is the price at which recommended. The second figure is the last sale – Adams Express (14 7/8) 22, Addressograph (29) 37, Alleghany Corp (3) 4i, Alleghany,pfd.(41) 50 1/4, Alpha Portland Cement (28 3/4), J2\9I!,4lE;A1lrmiIe)triSc1a1en5atCi1ny/g4an,a(m2A3tid) a2s(447C3)o/r)4p9,A(32rk3/4a,n1s/A2a)sme2Nr4iacta3un/r4aR,l aBGdaaiSalttioimlArioI (r1e(55)&11O/68h)i1o8/8,(A1, 2tc5h/i8so) n 16 1 8, Bi6elow Sanford (28) 36 7/8, E.W. Bliss Warner (44) 60 1/2, Canada Dry (13 1/2) 15 1/4, (18-20) Carrier 3(1161) /81,9B,oCerg0ex ( 28 1/2) 30 1/2, Certain-teed (16 3/4) 18 7/8, -Chicago, Milwaukee & St.Paul pfd (32 7/8) 33 3/4, Chicago North West (183/8) 19 5/8,Colorado Fuel 12-10) 16 5/B, Columbia Gas (10 1/2) 13 3/4,Consolidated Rwys of Cuba,pf 23 1/4)23 1/2, Copperweld Steel(15 5/B) ,16 5/B, Crane (37) 3B 1/4,Deere 3B) 45 1/4, Denver Rio Grande & Western (lB) 28, Devoe &,Raynolds wAil 25) 27 3/4, Distiller's Seagram (15 1/4) IB 1/2, Doehler Jarvis (24) 36 5/8, Dome Mines(lB 5/8) 17 1/2, Eagle Picher (19) 25, Eastern-Airlines (IB 1/4) 20 1/4( Eastern Stainless Steel (17 3/4) 21 l/, Electric Power & Light (19 1/8) 20 7/B, Elliott (19 1/2) 25 1/8 Fansteel(15 5/B) 14i, Flintkote (32-30) 39 5/B, Foster Wheeler (30 3/4i 34 5/B, General Cable (11) 12 3/8, General Rwy Signal (27-23) 28 1/2,General Realty (4 3/4) 6 liB, Gimbel (22)25, Gulf Mobile (12 3/8) IB 5/B, Gulf Oil (60) 75 5/8, Hewitt Robbins (25 1/2) 26i, Holland Furnace (27) 24 7/S,Illinois Central (22-20) 3S 7/B,Ind.Rayon (42) 3, Interlake Iron (12-10) 15 3/4,Inter- national Tel & Tel (13 1/2) 154, Inter.Minerals (26-241 35,JOhns Manville (39) (34) 41 3/4,Joy Mfg 34, Lone Star (37t) 39i) Cement (b5) K66ant,saMs aCsiotnyitSe o.6(213)i6)47,2aM,LeeshtaighMaPcohrintlean(3dB) 43,Minn.Honeywell (4B), 51,Minn.St.P. & SlS(12-)11 7/S,Mont.Ward (50) 64 42 5/8,Mullins (19 3/4) 26i,Natl Supply 3/4,No.Pacific (19i)26i, Oliver Corp (15-13 (23-21 2312t,, OtNi.sY/.EAlirb(3ra1k) e33(336)/4, Pac.Mills (3Bi) 40, Pac.Tin (5) 5 7/S,Pepsi Cola \26t)C17, 7/B,Phelps Dodge (3S) 57t, Pitts Coke (13) 13J, Radio Corp (8 5YS) 13, Rayonier (19 5/B) 31 3/4,Revere Copper (21-19J 20 3/4,Rheem Mfg(23 5/B) 23, St.L.San Fran (9 3/4)13,Schenley (33-31)33, Seaboard Air Line R.R.(23) U2(24n4i3o3n/4/,BS)ah6ga0m,(2SrBpoicek5g7e(Sl2)43)(631t23, e!UJ( nS1io3hna,roSCqanur1abri3ed1e)(D331B(1i),6) Simmons (37) 35t, So.Pacific 23i, Timken Det (21) 22 41 5/B,united Merchants (711/8) 19 7/B,u.s. Foreign 11S-16) 31t,U.S.Plywood (32) 33,U.S.Pipe 3S-35) 50t, Visking (32 3/4)3St, Victor Chemical (40t)44,West.pac.(34) 35, West.Air Wheeling Br (27-25138,west Elec.(23-2131tiWest Penn Steel (432)4St,Worth Pump (lBt)25a,Youngs.S Elec &T .(17iJ (62-bO) IB81iet , Zenith Radio (24i) 27. EDMUND W; TABELL May 17, 194B SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions eXI.eued In this leUer are the personal interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. label! and are not presented as .he opinions of Shields & Company. ,.\'.(, r-(.-; ';;., I .7c–,—————————- -11

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 20, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 20, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 20, 1948
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Technical Market Action The market continues to act in typical bull market fashion with individual issues showing strength while the balance of the list consolidates. While the averages may show little change over the near term, selected issues should advance. Any decline in the averages would meet support at 187185. Expect a gradual selective advance to the 195200 level before a real technical correction. The ultimate long term objective continues to be 250-260. Several of the issues in our recommended list have shown bet than-market advances recently. Colorado Fuel & Iron with a closing of 18t, was at a new high for the past twenty months. Ability to reach 19 would indicate a testing of the 23 high of 1946. American Radiator closed at 16 5/8 and has shown steady strength since its recent recommendation. The stock appears relatively underpriced for an issue of its calibre with 1947 earnings of 1.90 and 1.00 in dividend pay- ments. Celotex has advanced almost four points in the past week to reach a high of 32. Ability to reach 33 would give an individual bull market signal on the stock. Consolidated Railroads of Cuba, pfd. also advanced four points in the past several days. This is an extremely volatile issue. At its high of 27 3/4 and close of 27, it has pene- trated the trading range of the past thirteen months. Ability to reach 31 would be a further confirmation of a sharp uptrend. Seagram and Schenley have also shown independent strength. B appear to be headed higher. Flintkote Corp. has also reached new high territory in line with other building supply issues. Foster Wheeler reached a high of 38 3/8 on Thursday. The stock runs into some tempo- rary resistance in the 39-40 area but appears headed higher. Mullins Manufacturing, after a long rest, also reached new high territory at 28 3/8. The advance shouJd be to the middle thirtieso U.S.& Foreign Securities has advanced sharply and, at its recent high of 32 7/8, seems to be a bit ahead of the market. U.S. Plywood advanced two pOints on Wednesday to reach a high of 36 1/2. It has broken out of its accumulation range and appears to be in an uptrend with an ultimate objective of above 50. Selectivity continues to be of prime importanceo This is true even within groups. The rails, for example, have shown extreme select ivity even though the rail average has reached a level eight points above its former high. . Kansas City Southern, one of the issues in our list and Union Pacific, on which we advised taking over fifty points profit on Monday, have both sold above their 1946 highs. On the other hand, numerous secondary issues in the group are still selling considerably below the 1947 highs as well as the 1946 highs. Not all of these issues are attractive but there are quite a few that have built up attractive patterns and appear to be behind the market. Consider & St. Paul preferred, Chicago-Northwester, MObil & San Francisco and Western Pacific as issues category. EDMUND VI TABELL May 20, 1948 SHIELDS & COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow'Jones Rails Dow-,Tones 65-Stock 189.26 61.29 70.23 The oplnionl a.pressad in this Itter ere the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. labell and are not prelented illS the opinionl of Shields & Complllny.' – —–, , .' ., ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 25, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 25, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - May 25, 1948
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Technical Market Action The general averages have made little progress in the last several days but individual issues continue to advance. Consider the four-point trading range, between 191.44 and 187.46, in which the industrial average has held for the past nine trading days to be a con- solidating phase rather than distribution. Tuesday's reaction carried to a low of 188.55 but dried up quickly. Continue to expect no important reaction until the 195-200 level is reached. Standard & Poor's publishes weekly stock price indexes on over seventy-five groups of stocks. The prices are figured on the basis of a price percentage of the 1935-1939 range. I have just checked over the technical implications of.the stock prtce indexes of individual groups and have found that, roughly, the chart patterns fall into three general classifications. The first classification consists of groups that have already given a bull market confirmation similar to DowTheory confirmation by the industrial and rail averages. The following groups have given such a confirmation. – Agricultural Machinery, Aircraft Manufacturing, Auto- mobile Companies, Coal, Copper, Cotton, Electric Equipment, Fire In Fertilizer, Investment Trusts, Lead & Zinc, Machinery, Office Equipment, Paper, Oil, Radio, Rails, Rayon, Shipbuilding, Shipping, Steel, Textiles. The second classification consists of groups that have formed long potential base patterns but have not, as of the last published figure of May 19th, yet given an upside confirmation. The following groups are in this classification. – Air Transport, Auto Parts, Distill- ers, Soft Drink, Confectioners, Building Materials, Chemicals, Finance, Meat Products, Gold Mining, Household Products, Metal Fabricating, Railroad Equiment, Retail Trade, Shoes, Soap & Vegetable Oil, Woolen. The third classification consists of groups that have relati unfavorable patterns as compared with the general market. In most instances, they may have already reached their lows but they need to base patterns before any indication of a worthwhile advance is indicated. This may require spending more time around price levels while other may move ahead. The following groups are in this third classificati Apparel, Auto Tires and Rubber, Banks, Brewers, Containers, Drugs, Dairy Products, Foods, Leather, Printing and Publishing, Sugar, Motion Pictures, Tobacco, Utilities, Telephone and Telegraph. My recommended list consists largely of stocks in the first classification. We have been recommending issues in these groups for the last eighteen months in the 170-160 buying range in the industrial average. For new purchases for those who missed the buying opportunities of the past year and a half, it would seem that purchases should be concentrated in the first two classifications. Some selectivity is required at this stage because some of the issues in the groups in the first classification have already reached their intermediate objectives. This is particularly true of some of the issues in the oil and aircraft groups However, there are many issues in this first classification of groups indicate considerably higher price levels. . Individual issues in the second classification of groups should turn out to be advantageous purchases although some time mayor may not be required Until they confirm the uptrend. They have potentially favor- able technical patterns and appear to be behind the market. Would avoid the third classification until a large base pattern has been built up. Individual issues will be commented upon in the letters to follow. My complete list of recommended issues was published in my letter of May 17th. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions expressed in this Jetter are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. fdmund W. Tallell and are no' presented as the opinions of Shields & CoMpany.

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