Viewing Month: April 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 01, 1948
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Technical Market Action Both averages have brolwn out of the Hne fornation of the past few days. On Thursday, the industrial average reached a high of 17S.14and the rails reached a high of 54.06. The high on the ruils \las just a shade below the 54.17 hibh of early January. If the LlDrkGt follows a nornal technicd pattern, SODO tenporary resistence night be expectfl0. at the 179-1S1 level of the industrials an'! either at around present le,vels for the rails or at 57-58 if the 54.17 high is penetrated. This resistnnce could be follormd by a one-third to one-half correc Gion of the aevance fran the Harch lows of In5.0) Md 48.8). Under t.hese circu1stances, it lfOuld seen that there is chance for a trnding turn by selling on strength froo present levels nd buyinG back at 175-173 ancl 53-52. HOI/ever, it nust be realizeu that the narket has a clynaoic potential upside pattern. The potential base areas forned by both averaGes would indicate the possibility of lon&-tern objectives of 250-260 and 75-S0, if both averaees penetrate the hjglls of 187.66 and 54.17 and signal p. bull narlcet. The volune indications of the past triO weeks i.ndicate the possibHity of a chull;e in the fenr psychosis which has held back the narkct lor the past year in the face of record earnings. As I have scid so'nany ties before, the stage is sct for a trtrlendous bull w.rket. All that is needfld is a che.nge fro,l a nation of econoDic hypochondriacs to U l1oe sensible evaluation of earnings, balanefl sheets and prospects. Under the circunstences, playing for the r.linor swings could prove E.xpensive unless one is Hillin;; to re-enter the lJarket at higher prices in the ever-t that the nornal tecrulical corrections do not take place on schedule. A nunber of issues in our reconnended list have either outpaced the narket and are very near their intenLedillte tern obj cctives or they have about rellched near-tern resistance. It nay be necessary for these issues to consolidate and back and fill in a trading range before the rdvnnce is resuned. However, with the eeneral narket indic(lting subsknticlly higher levels there aro, on the other hand, a great nany issues that appear to have just Dtarted their upsl1ing. It would SeeD adn sable to teke profits on the first '!entioned t;roup anel awitch into issues in the last nentioned catogory. \'lith that idea in nind, I suggest the folloWing. Allegheny Ludlun Steel – recom1ended ut 2S. Lst sale 31. Stock runs into resistance at 32-34. Suggest sViitching into Sharon Steel (34 1/8). Barnsdall Oil – recormended at 21. Last sale 39 1/2. Base count suggests 41-45. Stock is close enough to objective to warrant swltching into either Mesta i.lachine (40) or Nen York /,ir Brake (39 1/2). Both these issues are-near their lovis. Consolidated Vultee – reconnended at 12. Last sale 15 5/8. At 16 resis tance level. AbEi ty to penetrate rellis tance Vlould be bulli sh but would prefer switching into Eastern Air Lines (19 7/8) or Electric POYler & Light (1St). Houston Oil – rccorJl.;onded in the 17-15 buying ranbe. Last sale 27. Near internediete tern objective and resistance. SuCgest taking profits ru1d switching into Kansas City Southern (28 l/S), Seaboard Oil – reconnended at 23-25. Last salo 43. Near internedia objective and resistance. SUGest taking profits and switching into Alleghany, preferred (43 1/4). Mesta Machine (1,0) or New York Air Brnke (39 1/2). Sperry Corp. – recooDended at 23 3/S. Last sale 27 3/. Suggest switching into Kansas City Southern (2S 3/S). Texas Pacific Coal &Oil – Reconenaed at 29. Last sale 49. Base count suggests Southern 50-55. HO1f;v8r, Pacific (51) or is close heeling enough to Steel (43 objective 7/S). ' to sug, gest s\litching into Twentieth Century-Fox – reconnended at 22. Last sale 25 1/4. Near resist- ance and tenporarJ objective. Suggests need of nore baCking and filling before further base is forned. Suggest stching into International Minerals & Chenical (29 l/S) or Kansas City Southern (2S 3/8). United Aircraft – reconnended at 20 liS. Last sale 28 3/4. Base count sugGests first rally objective of 28-30. Appears to need further backing and filling to forn further base. Switch into International Minerals & Chenical (29 1/8) or Kansas City Southern (28 3/S). EDMUND W. TABELL April 1, 1948 SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions expressed in thili lePer are the penonal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 07, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 07, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 07, 1948
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Technical Market Action The rail average, at Wednesday's intra-day high of 55.06 was in new high territory for the past eighteen months. The industrials also have moved ahead and reached a new high for the move at an intraday peak of 179.38 on Tuesday. At this level, the average has entered the lower part of my suggested 179181 upside resistance area. It would be normal technical action if the pace of the advance slowed down somewhat at this stage. However, do not expect much of a decline. As yet, there are no signs of distributional tops and any decline would meet support at 175-174. Present indications pOint to a trading range for the next week or so in an area bounded roughly by 181 and 175. The long term trend continues to point higher. The rail average, by penetrating previous resistance levels, now indicates a long term uptrend to an eventual 75-80. A penetration of the July high of 187.66 would confirm a new bull market and indicate an eventual objective of over 250 for the industrial average. In our last letter, I suggested taking profits in a number of issues that had either reached near term objectives or resistance points. These issues included Allegheny Ludlum, Barnsdall Oil, Consoli'dated Vultee, Houston Oil, Seaboard Oil, Sperry Corporation, Texas Pacific Coal & Oil, Twentieth Century-Fox and United Aircraft. Profits on these issues were fairly substantial and on the nine issues averaged about 70. Also suggest profit taking on the following issues. Chrysler was originally recommended in a range equivalent to 40-42 for the present stock. Some resistance may be met at 62 and some backing and filling needed before a resumption of the advance. Wednesday's close was 60. General Motors was originally recommended in the 53-50 buying range. Action may be slow from here on and other issues appear more attractive. Wednesday's close was 56 1/8. Ohio Oil was originally recommended in the 21-23 area. Its objective is 38-41. At the recent high of 35 it is fairly close to this objective and a switch into issues with greater possibilities is suggested. Suggest replacing these issues with selected recommended issues. Particularly like Electric Power & Light, International Minerals & Chemical, Kansas City Southern and Sharon Steel. Would purchase these issues on slight dips. April 7, 1948 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 178.33 54.75 65.21 The opinions expressed in 'hi' letter BfA' the personal inlerprotolltion of cherb by Mr. Edmund W. Tabel! and are not presented 81 the opinions of Shields &. Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 12, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 12, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 12, 1948
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Technical Market Action , For the past six successive trading days, the industrial average has reached an intra-day high of between 179.14 and 180.19. With volunie turnover heavy, it appears that the average is defin'itely in a resistance area. This coincides with my previously expressed opinion that the first important upside resistance would be encountered in the 1'79-181 area. However, I seriously doubt that any important decline will occur at this point. The favorable action of the rail average in penetrating its former high and continuting to move higher indicates that the trend is upward and that the 18'7.66 high of the industrials will eventually be penetrated. While it would be entirely logical to expect some sort of correction from, around this level, I believe any decline will be modest and would be limited to an extreme of 176.175. With most people expecting a de-' cline, it would not be surprising if we witnessed a consolidating move instead followed by a rally to the next important resistance at 185-187. While it may be possible to make a trading turn,at this point, it may require extreme agility to get out and back in again with much of a profit. It must be realized that the potential dynamite is on the upside of this market and not on the dOwnside. For example, I notice that several of the trading services that are bearish, or have recently sold out the market, are advising re-entering the market if the average reaches certain pOints on the upside. And, of course, if the averages decisively penetrate 187.66, there should be considerable Dow theory buying. Continue to advise the purchase of recommended issues on minor rice dips. Particularl like Celotex (26), Eagle Picher (22 3/4) Eastern Airlines (19t), Electric Power & Light (19), Gulf Mobile & Ohio (16 5/8), Illinois Central (32), Kansas City Southern (29t) , Joy Manufacturing (38), National Supply (22i), Northern 1 Pacific (2oi), Revere Copper (19 3/4), St. Louis-San Francisco (92)' Seaboard Air Line R;R, (l'7i) , Southern Pacific (51i) and U. S. & Foreign Securities (21t). EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY April 12, 1948 Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 179.05 55.03 65.47 nre opinions oxpnllSed In 'his fetter ate the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Taben and are not presented as the opinions of Shields a. CompInY. , …..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 16, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 16, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 16, 1948
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,-, Technical Market Action )' The industrials reached a new high for the move at 180.63. The market gives thlappearance of slowly eating through the 181-179 resistance which has held back the llnrket for the last ten trading clays. The process has been slow but each successive push has succeeded in cr.rryinG a little bit deeper into the resistrulce as witness the 179.31 high of April 7th, tile 180.19 high of April 12th, end Friday's high of 181.69. During this ten-day period the 10Vl was 177.70 whcll was reachd on the first day of the entry into the 179.181 resistance area. At Friday's high of 181.69, the averae was very close to the December 31st high of 181.82 which was the top of the last interoedle.teupoove. Penetration of this level would be technically important end invicate a further rally to the 185-187 reSistance and a testing of the July hign of 187.66. l'ihcther the market succeeds in penetrding the 181.82 high immediately or after a minor setback is of no great long trn significance. The Dnount of potential buying power that is awaiting a ree.ction will most likely liIlit any decline to relatively cinar proportions. The technical pattern indicat..s that short tern traders end those investors who hnv nissed the advance shoulc add Ito holdings on Dinar dips to 176-175 (if it occurs) or on a penetrc.tion t 182 on the industrial average. The rnil average has, of course, already given a bull Darkat signal of its own by penetratlJ1g the January high of 54.17, which was the high of the long trading rCJ1ge since Septeuber 1946. The penetration has been decisive with the rail average reaching a high of 56.54 on Friday. The long ten. inlicntion on this average is now 75-80. The first illportant resistrnlce is at 60. If the industrial average penetrates the July high, the long tern in- dication would be above 250. I nade this statenent recently at a round table diSCUSSion of Ilarkt prospects and it was greeted by reised eyebrows. It is perhaps a coollentary on the depressed state of thought of the last eighteen nonths. While general sentilJent is changing, it is still tinged with pessi1isn and doubt. There is no reason why such a long tern objective should be con- sidered stcrtlin. In fact, it is quite .Iodest. It woulcl nOM n rise of about 55 fron tile 1947 low of about 160. This would be the snallest percentc.ge rise for a bull i1arkot in the last twenty-fii.ve years ond one of the snallest on record. The recent 1942-1946 bull !.lnrket wns over 100 end even the short 1938-1939 bull. TJurket wes 60. – While a penetration of the 187.66 high llU'3t be awaited before a dofinit, confiI'lllltion of a new bull fl!lrkct is indicated, conti1111e to believe that t'1 trading range of the last eighteen ncnths is on accur.r,ll c ti.on arc;u indice,';H!;; considerably higher le,-els over the longer tern. SOlle 7'sistance and cO'7e-tion nay be en00uotered before the July hi.gh is penetr.te1 ,fl'; ny -Hork indieD'., .hat no worthwhile reaction is indicated until the nnrket. T,r.!les 195-200 on c.r.3 industrials and about 60 on the rails. At that poin, ,,mld expect u thj rJ or half correction of the advance frou the February lo, ris nieht carry tn3 r.veragcs back to 185 and 55. Believe any intervf;r,int; c-.or.'ection will be of cirJy ninor inportance. April 16, 1948 Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Do\-Jones Reils Dow-Jones 65-Stock EDMUND W. TABELL SHIBLDS & COMPANY 180.63 55.86 66.10 The opinions expressed' In rhis letter are lhe personal interpretlliion of charts by MI. ldmund W. Tabell end are nol presenled as the opinions of Shields l Company, –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 20, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 20, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 20, 1948
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Technical Market Action Tho narlot oontinues its attol.lpt to ,onetrate the upside resistance- in the 179-181 rea, A high of 181.87 was reached on Tuesday. For the last four trading days the narket has held in a two point range with a high of 181.87 and a 10lV of 179.90. This ooncentrated turnover 1n a narrow range obviously indicates that the narket is running into strollg resi'stance. Equally obious, it indicates that there is a etrong denand for stocks as witness the fact that a considerble volume of stock has been taken on only slight price concessions, IThether the market penetrates the upside resistance inmediately, or backs dmn s1ightly before so doing, is of minor significance. The nc.in trend is indicElted IlS upward, In trqding accounts, would buy on slight technical dips. If 182 is reached before a dip, would consider suoh on event as a strong upside signal. I am re-listing belm7 the thirty stocks listed as outstanding purchases in my letter of February 11th. llost of these issues hElve Shown better action thnn the 1larket. Addressograph Bigelow Sanford Bliss, E.W. Borg Warner Chio.Uorth Western Columbia Gas Doehler JElrvis EIec.Power & Lt. Elliot COl'lpany Fnnsteel Flintkote Gulf, llobile & Ohio Hewitt-Robbins Illinois Central Industrial Rilyon App roxinnte Recent App roxino.te Price Feb 11 Price Price Feb,ll Z9 Inter .Nin & Chom. 25 56 63 Kansas City So, 24 24 28 lie st EI Hachine 38 44 52 l!ontgonery Ward 49 15 17 111ltional Supply 19 10 12 lTe York Air Brake 36 30 35 Phelps Dodge 41 13 19 Radio Corp. or ler 8 15 21 Seuboard Airlino 14 11 14 Sharon Steel 30 31 37 Southern Pacifio 44 13 17 Squilre D 15 21 25 U.S.& Foreign 17 28 33 Wheeling Steel 39 39 46 Youngstown S & T 67 Reoent Price 31 30 40 58 23 40 55 10 18 36 55 21 23 44 78 These issues havo nlrendy shown oonsiderable price appreciation but considerably higher price objectives nre indionted in event of nn upside penetration of the long nineteen-nonth trading range. So rar the leaders of the advanoe havo bean the bettor known stocks. At this time, it would not be suprisl.ng if sono of the secondary issues and now groups c into the picture. Those issues ho.ve dono little marketwiso. Would consider BElltimore & Ohio (12 5/8), Certain-teod (16 3/4), St Louis-San Francisco (10 1/4), Chicago l1orthwost (16 3/4), Rqdio Coproation (10 1/2), Seaboqrd Air' Line (17 5/6). as issues in this category. EDHUllD VI. TABELL April 20, 1948 SHIELDS & CClIPllllY .1Thill tv( Eodpinions d' ,esID In th'II ,Cffter .re fh. porson.' intefpretation of eheri, b .b.nr. mund W. T end are not pro'jlnted a, the opinions of Shields & Comp.' ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 23, 1948
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Technical Market Action The market continued its advance on Friday ane. the ind4strinl rtverage reached aJ. intra-da.y high of 184.4 Illld the rails 58.68. The close was 183.77 58.1(1. Volune toklled 2,470,000. There is no chenG in the technical patten. \;hi103 the 185-187 area nay cause sone tet.porary hesitation, there is, as yet, no signs of other than a ,linor technic,,. correction bAfore the 195-200 levf'l is rIOached. Of course, this pattern nay change r.ut that is the indicrtion at the Jlooent. The ulphabeticul revif1 of fly reconnendec'. list is continued below J.rkansas Natural Ga.s IIA was originally rccoDnended in January at 5 lie. Last s,le today was 7 1/2. The 1946-1948 range was 8- 3 1/4. Tile st.ock bis built a strong base pattern and has reached a ne; hirh at 7 3/4. The upside objtctis difficult to arrive at but higher levels are indicated over .the longer terrl, Atchison, Topeka & Sant& Fe was originally recom;ended in Dtkmber at Last sale Vias 105 1/2. Th 1946-1948 range Vio.S 121-66. This stock tas all alooft perfect bullish technical pattern I1ith a broad hec.d 2!l(; shoulders baseThe ultioate price objective is souehere around the 200 level.. The first re- sistance level is around 115-120. liould expect an interoediate correction froo th.-.t level. S!1orter tero traders shoul1 take profits in the 115-120 level. Longer tern holders should retain positions. Atlas CorporaJtL ws originally recoended at 23 1/2. Last sale was 23. 1946-1948 ranG W2.S 34 3/8-20. This speciol si-tu&tion investoent trust has a rather irregular pattern but the upside potential is great. It appears to be a very interesting longer tem specull.ti.on. The warrants, listed on the New lo.rIt Curb, and selling nt 5 1/2, ere also interesting. The warrillts rcp..cl',ed a of 13 in 1946. Thy give the right to purchase the; connon at 25 with no tine limit. Baltinore & Ohio was recoooended earlier in the week at 12 5/S. Lst sale was 13 7/8. The 1946-1948 r3nle is 30 1/4 high and 75/8 low. The stock is speculative and is subject to vlide prlce swings. It pppars to be behind the . rail narket. It reached a hi,;h (Jf 16 5/8 in Februury 1947 when the rail average vias bel or. 54 as against 58 1/2 at the loooent. The technical pattern is good with indications of a head and shoulders botto!l at the points of. roughl'Y 11, 8 and 10. Iteroediate indications have a potential of 18 to 21. Bigelow-Sanford Carpet Coopan.z. w;.s originally recoDneuded ill our special letter-of February nth at 56. The last spe was 63. The 1946-191 range ViaS 3 1/4 high and 46 1/4 low. This leading Danufacturer of ccrpets ane rugs has a very &ttractiv technical pattern. Ability to penetrate the 1947 high of 66 would be particularly encourging elld iDdieate Ii long tero objctive in the 90..100 .!!..rco.. Bliss (E. II. ) .& Co. was originally recorJl.lended in the 18;20 buying . range' wd also in uy special letter- of February nth at 2.4. L,st sale Vias 28 3/4. The 194&.1.948 range was 35 1/2 hi;h and 18 1/4 low vii th the hCh being reached in 1947. The stock is a volatile performer but substantially higher levels are indicated with the possibility froo a technical viwpoint of an eventual 50. Near tero resistance will be encountered at 33-35. Borg Warner Corporation was orisinally recoDoended at 44 anc rerecoortended ut tho saoe price in oy special letter of Fehruary 11th. Last sale was 54 1/8 and the 1946-1948 range .1as 61 3/4-36. Th stock appears to be in a slow uptrend to 80-90 level. Ter.tpornry resistance nay be Det around the 1946 high of 61 3/4. Caopbe11, liyant & Cannon was origilwlly recolJJended in the 22-24 bupn rnnge. Last sale Vias 29 3/8. ','hili. the stock still hes a r.!oderately attractive technical pnttern, there are other issu&s thQt show grenter upside potentials. Suest tring profit and switching-into Celotx (27 1/2) which indicates a substantially higher potential long terQ objective. This issue will be reviewed in our next tulletin. EDYlUND \'1. TABELL April 2), 1948 SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions epressed In Ihi.!. leHer are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Taholl and are not presented as Ihe opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 28, 1948

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 28, 1948

Tabell's Market Letter - April 28, 1948
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– Technical Market Action The market on Moneay had its first technical correction since the start rise in late March. After rer.chine a hibh for the IT.OVe of 184.48 on Friday, the market reacted to a 10Vi of 180.93 on MonGr.y on a volume of less then 1,500,000 shares. The weakness carried over into Tuesdny rJornin, an the average reached a low of lSO.07, a correction of 4.41 frol'1 the hiGh of the move. The rnil average reacted from a hie-h of 5S. 71 last week to a low of 57 .1S, a decline of 1. 5;. The market rallied in the later part of Tuesday's session and continued firm on Wednesdey. The rails, at Wednesday's high of 58.50, regained most of their loss. Believe the reaction is of only minor sirnificance and is typical of market corrections – thut is, a sharp, sudden dip followed by an equally sudde; comebaCk. In most cases, tryinG to take advantau, of these sudden dips results in' losing a position in an uptrend as all stocks do not decline. For example, on Monday's decline, 671 closed 10ler but 212 closed higher and 180 were unchanged. Also on Monday, 64 issues made new hifhs for the year. There is no chFn,;e in my opinion that there will be only quick, sudden technical reversals of minor i,por tonce like that of Monday-Tuesday until the industrial avera.,es reach 195-200. From that point, would expect a full-fledeed intermediate correction of the advance from 165. This should result in a retracemcnt of one-thirC to one-half of the advance but would eXpect such a decline to weet support in the lS7-185 area. As for individual issues, it vlOuld see!! that some new leaders may come into the picture. The oils, for exalJple, have hac1 sE'Dsational upward moves and appear in need of some consolic'a tion. Some of the lagg.rds may come into the picture at this point. I have been aavisinC avoidance of the store and textile issues since May 1946 and also throughout the trdinG ranGe of the last nineteen months. However, a few of these issues have noVi built up rather favorable patterns. I like Gimbel (22) in the store r.roup and !lnited Merchants (17 7/8) in the textile group. The rails still look attractive despite their already sharp advance. Some of the secondr.ry issues in the erouppay be in the forecround from here on. Baltimore & Ohio, Chicr.go NorthwE'stern, Seaboard Air Line and St.LouiS, attractive. EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & C1.JMPANY 28, 1948 Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-J one s Rail s Dow-Jones 65-Stock 181.01 58.21 67.01 The opinions 8xprelled in this letter are the personal interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. Tebell and ere not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company. – – – – – .. , ,-

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