Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1948

Technical Market Action The net change in the industrial average for the year 1947 was 2 1/2. To find a narrower yearly net change, it is necessary to go back all the way to 1926 when the net change was 1. It is perhaps Significant tht the industrial verage in 1926 ranged between 1.35 low and 166 high and in the final month of the year started the dync phase of the bull market that eventually reached 386 in 1929. Not only did the aversbes show little change from January 1st to December 31st, but the difference between the high and low of the year was only 14 1/2. This range was the smallest since 1896 with the exception of 1944. Nevertheless, there were a large number of issues that showed worthwhile moves and if one had paid more atten- tion to individual issues and less to the action of the averages, there were plent,y of profit possibilities on both sides of the market. For example, there are a great many issues thct, regardless of the action of the averages, gave individual bull market signals of their own, thus indicatin& that their major trend is up. Below is a partial list of the more important issues on the New York Stock Exchange and New York CUrb that have given individual bull market signals- . Acme Steel, Adams ExPress, Addressograph,Allied Chem &Dye,Allied Products,Allis Chalmers,Amerada Petro1eum,Amer.Ch1cle,Amer.lnternational,Amer.RepubLics, American Sme1ting,Anaconda Wire,Atlantic Refining,Atlas Powder, Babcock &Wilcox, Barnsdall, E.W.Bliss,Borg Warner,Bucyrus Erie,Bfron Jackson,Campoell,WYant &Campbell, Cannon Mills,Csrrier Corp., J.I.Case,Celanese,Chlcago Corp. ,Chicago Pneumatic Too1,Chrys1er. Cities Service,Cit,y Ice &FUe1,Clark Equipment,Coca Co1a,Co10. FUel &Iron, Commer- cial Solvents,Congoleum Nairn,Consol.Steel,Continenta1 Oil,Cooper Bessemer,Copper- weld Steel,Creole Petroleum, Crown Cork & Seal, Crown Zellerbaeh,Dana Corporation, Davison Chemical,Deere & Co., Doehler Jarvis, Duplan Corp., DuPont,Eag1e Picher, Elee.Storage Battery,El Paso Natural Gas,First National Stores,Flintkote,Foster Wheeler,Gaylord Container,Genl Refractories,Glen Alde Coal,Glidden,Granite ity Steel,Gulf Mobile & Ohio,pfd.,Gu1f Oil,Harbison Walker,Houston Oi1,Illinoi8 Central, Ind.Rayon, Inland Steel,Interlake Iron,Inter.Harvester,Inter.Paper,Inter.Shoe, Inter.Silver,Intertypo Corp. ,Island Creek Coal,Joy Mfg. ,-Kelsey Hayes Wheel B,Life Savera,Link Belt,Mack Truek,Maracaibo Oil,Martin Parry,Mathieson Alkali,McGraw Elec. Merritt Chapman Seott,Mid-Continent Pete. ,Mission Corp.,Moore-MeCormack,Motor Prod., Mullins Mfg. ,Murray Corp.,Natl Cash Register,Nat1 Lead,Natl Steel,Nat1 Supply,N.Y. Chicago & St. L.Pfd.,Newmont Mining,Ohio Oil,Oliver Corp.,Pacific Western Oil, Penn. Coal &Coke,Pppere11 Mfg.,Petroleum Corp.,Phe1ps Dodge,Phileo,Phi11ips Jones, Phillips Pete.,Pitts.Coke & Chem.,Pitts.Consol.Coal.,Pitts.Stee1,Pitts.& W. Virginia Pittston Co.,Plymouth Oi1,Proctor & Gamble,Pure 01l,Rayonier,Reo Motors,Ruberoid, Seaboard Oil,Shamrock Oil, Sharon Steel,She11 Union Oil,Si1ver King,Sinclair Oil, Skelly Oil,8l06s Sheffield Steel,Socony Vacuum,So.Pacific,Spencer Kellogg,Standard Oil of Calif.,Standard 011 of Ind.,Standard Oil of N.J. ,Standard Oil of OhiO, L.S. Starrett,Superior Oi1,Texas Co. ,Texas Gulf Prod. ,Texas Gulf Sulphur,Texas Pac.Coal & Oil,Texae Pacific Land Trust,Tidewater Associated Oil,Timken Roller Bearing,TruaxTraer Coal,Union Bag & Paper,Union carbide,Union Oi1,Union Pac. R.R., United'Aircraf United-Carr Fastener,United Elec.Coal,United Frult,U.S.& Foreign Sec., U.S.Freight, U.S.Lines,U.S.Pipe, U.S.Steel,Victor Chemical,Va.Carolina Chem.,Warren Pipe &Foundry Wesson Oil & Snowdrift,W.Va.Pulp &Paper,Westinghouse Air Brake,Westinghouse Elee., wesQ Chlorine, Wheeling Steel,ilcox Oil,Woodward Iron,Youngstown Sheet & Tube. / I t will be noted that the vast majority of these issues are in the groups that this letter has conSistently recommended all during the year in the 160-170 buying range. The groups are oils, stee1s,ehemicals,rails,building,farm implement, machinery, metals,papers. Such action points up to the opinion that the narrow trading of the past 17 months is an accumulation range. However, it is a patience tr,ring market. Recent action has been discouraging. The market sold off again on Tuesday and pene- trated last week's lows of 177.78 and 51.54. Tuesday's lows were 177.25 and 51.41. Penetration of the September low of 174.02 would indicate that the 187-175 range of the past six months was an intermediate top area and necessitated a dip to the top of the 170-160 buying range to about 171-167. On the other hand, ability to hold above 174.02 would indicate a triple bottom and would be extremely constructive. No matter which action takes place, it iD no.way alters the basic accumulation pattern. In fact, a penetration to the top of the 170-160 buying range would enlarge the potential base. As the base pattern now stands, the upside objective is 210-215 if the ranGe is penetrated upside. A dip to 171-167 would enlarge the potantial upmove 25 to 30 points. Would use weakness down to 175 for buying. If 174.02 is penetrated, would resume buying in the 171-167 area. January 1.3, 1948 m.ruND 1'1. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Thi opinkms expressed in thls leher ora th. persoQaI interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabel! .nd are not pr.s.nted as the opinions of StMelds & Company. .—-