Viewing Year: 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 17, 1946
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Technical Market Action Weakness in commodittes, with both cotton and hec.t off the allon' able limits for th6 dcy, cunsed wealmes's in t,l1(' market on Thursduy. Prices rallied from the mid-day lows ,end at the the industrial aver'age lost 2.59 e.nd the rails Viere down ),1.05 at pl.76 and 47.59, respectively. Volume f't 1,JIO,000 shares ms 1dow the of week. V/hil8 the decline came someuhat mor'e rapidly than expected it hs still held wi thin normal corl'ecti VEo bounds. From the low of 161. 61 rcuhed last Thul'sda, the industrial c.yerage rebolmded to a high of 177.05 on I!edn.esday of this This is c. rully of 15.L.1. in five tl'uding da;rs. This is an extremely rl'.pid advance which, as mentioned in s lettor, left the market somewhat vulnerable from a technical vleVipoint. At s loVi of 170.47, the industrial avera go had reacted iro;', the high 'cI' 'h rotrttCeulent of F.DDr,ox'L- mately 42 of the advance. \ Another technical element that might be menti.oned this time is the theory of gap openings. 'i'his subject is extrcmely technical and the int&r- , pretations of it vary widely according to the different methods used. However, ohIO Dverages opened IIi th a gap on 'lUesda;) ce.uscd by th.' fact thut the high of the previous day Vias 170.60 ,hile the 10\, of TuesuEcy was 173.08 – thuf' leaving a gap of betwcc'1 the runges of the tHO days. Thursday's ref.ction to tt lOll of 170.47 closed thio gap. In SODe ci.rcles, the theory is that these gaps must he even tuslly cloSed. From this viewpoint, the rapid clolling of the gap is constructive. However, it mi.ght 8.1so lle arued that a differGnt of , thought may be dlsapPinted by the fact that the gap was not of thD breakaway type that uEually dEno teo an extremely shttrp raJ ly before. the gap is closed at some remote future time. ThE' si tl.!ation is further cornplicat8d by the fact thc.t the average also 0pEmed with a do\'msidc gap on Thursday ,vhen the high of the day was 173.61 agdnst a 101 of 174.03 on V;ad.'18sday – thU8 leav1.ng a s,naller gcp of 43 cents. This fact is also subject -L,' diffGrcnt iuLerprctcLi'Jlls. It. could be argued th.t this gap should bG filled Shortly 01' thnt PQSGibly th,a !s.p, wi th 1,h3.t of, Tuflsday' s, denotes an island revrsal, ler.vi.ng the of TuesdllJ' and Wednesday detached from tho main formation. This Hould be inter- preted bearishly. As I said be-fore, the sub,i ect ,xtrmnely complicr, ted and of doubtful tecp.nicul vuiue and, at the moment, I nm sorr;y I brought it up. Of groatcr value, may be the fact th1tt individual situations are able to move hif,lHr agaipst the treml as ,laS evidenced by Pepl,i-Coln on ThursdlY. ThE. stock rnoved up two Joints in a reactionary general l!lDxket. Thin is quit& tho reverse of the action of the past few months whon ilfdividunl issues were selling off in days .,hen tho gcntlral market Vias advunci.ng. This latter warJ one warning indication of tho decline. Ponsibly, the action of. Pepsi-Cola may be a harbinger of better thing3 to come. Still believe the market can bo bought on noft spots. Particularly like Rolling li!ills, Bethlehem Certain-t.eed, Doehler-J.J.rvis, International Minorals, Penn-Dixie Cemont, Revere Copper, Reynolds If.etds, Union Bag and I'/heeling Steel. october 17, 1946 EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing DOH-Jones Industri.als \ Dow-Jones Rails DO;I-J ones 65-Stock 171.76 47.59 61.72 Th. opinions alp,…ed in this letter are the penonal interpretation of cll.rh. by Edmund W. labell and ara not presented as the opinions of Shield. & Comp.y.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 21, 1946
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Technical Market Action The market was a rather tame affair for tbc first four hours of Monday's session. Frices were irregular and volume was extremely small at 530,000 shares or an hourly rate of approximately 130,000 shares for the four hours. In the final hour, howover, prices firmed on an increased turnover of 290,000 sharos for the hour and the averages finished fractionally higher on the day with the industrial av('ra!e showing a gain of 59 cents at 171.93 and the rails cloRing 1 cents hjgher at 47.68. Technically, the market is excellently. Weak- ness in commodities has slight effect on stock prices and the de- creased volume and sidewise movement shows DO renewal of the selling so evident in September. Believe the market hus been jn are-accumulation area for the past month and believe the jntermediate trend will shortly be signalled as higher. Continue to like the teclmical e,ction Df recently mentioned issues, particularly American Rolling Mills, Bethlehem Steel, Doehler-Jarvis, International Minerals, Cement, Revere Copper, Reynolds Metals, Union Bag and Wheeling Steel. As a short term speculation, Sohenley also seems to be building up a sizeable base area. October 21, 1946 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industri&ls Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 171.93 47.68 61.90 The opinions expressed in this letter are the person..l interpretation of chorts by Mr. Edmund W. labell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 24, 1946
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Technical Market Action Cantinue to. like the teclmical actian af the market and believe the n6xt mave af lIill be on the upside. For the past fev/ days, valur.tf, nes beer. bolaw the Ir.j L! ian sharn mark and s'll- ing pressure appf'crs to be lift'ng. The c.l.csi.l!g pric0s of the in- dustrials hr.v8 hld Vii .hin a ran;e af tllDCl o'vo Joints far the last seven tretding days e-cron tloough the na.r'cet bus h,A wide int.ra-day swings. Thi s bOicKing fill ir.g b.l'; las 11., v''der baee farma. tians af Vlhich there 'l.re now en increasjng nt'mber. When the 11.1 move \'fill start is open to question, but the fact thE'. t the aVE'r!f,s have dEc.in ';!d fer se7en out of the last eight trading days to the that et tl'rn nojght h, qui.te near. Also the fae t t, en ' t.'1C u ve.rages l',d G. eliVG-rgecl t, c10s1ng with the rC1.ils gc..ini!lg 88 CB!lt.S v.'hlle the industrirls lost 69 cents, may turn out to. oe tnlHsh development. This type of action often precedes a change of orondo Continue to. like the teclmical patterns of the indtvidual issues recently mentioned. of these stocks have built up able base patterns and,in most instances, are quite close to. upside breakouts. October 24r 1946 EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Clasing Industrials DaVl-J'Jlles Rails Dal'l-J ones 65-Stock 169.98 47.93 61.48 The opini…, upreued i.. thi.. I.M., are the personal interpretation of cham -by Edmund W. label! and ar. not presented .s the opinion. of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 28, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 28, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 28, 1946
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Technical Market Action The market on Monday continued its disappointing action of last week and the industrials closed 2.40 lower at 166.04 while the rails were down 71 cents at 47.09. Volume was 900,000 shares. The industrial average has declined for ten out of the last cleven trading days and at Monday's low of 165.98 had declined 11.07 from the decontrol high of 177.05. By contrast, the rails have acted much better and reacted only a little more than 2.00 from their comparable high. From tape action, it is very easy to become discouraged at the market's action but, at the risk of being bromidic, the market always looks the worst near the bottom and best near the top. A glance at the graphs shows no change, as yet, in the possible base formation. The issues that preViously reacted to their indicated reaction levels have held at these points and have broadened out their possible base formations. Other issues which indicated lower levels have worked closer to their indicated reaction levels. In fact, if the industrials hold above the 164 level, the market forma- tion would suggest a complex head and shoulders bottom. That is a rather terrifying phrase, but in language would indicate that the lows had been reached and a very substantial rally could ensue. Still believe the odds favor the possibility that the action of the past few weeks is the forming of a base pattern. With the imminence of several possibly excellent earnings reports and the possibility of favorable elections, plus the fact that the market has declined for ten out of the last eleven days, it would seem a rather poor time to sell even though the market may work a little lower. Would rather buy at around present levels, confining purchases to issues that have reached indicated levels on the master list of October 14th. EDMUND W. TABELL October 28, 1946 SHIELDS & OOMPANY Closing Dow-.Jones Indl strials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 166.04 47.09 60.24 The opinions exprened in this letter ere the personal Interpretation of c;harts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell end ere not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 29, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 29, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 29, 1946
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Technical Market Action Continued weakness in cotton brought selling into the market agdn on Tuesday. Most of the selling was concentro.t8d in thE final hour with a turnover of 400,000 shares during that period as compared with volume of 1,210,000 for -the entire dll;Y. The industrial average finished 1.83 lower at 164.21 and the ralls closed 57 cents lower at 46.52. The sharp hreak in cotton has undoubtedly caused some forced liquidation in the stock murket and has contributed to the weakness which has carried the industrial average lower for seven Successive trading days and lower for eleven of the last twelve trading days. However, the market still remnins in the broad arev. which it has occupied since mid-Seotcmber. Thio area is bounded roughly by 177-162 in the Dow-Jones industrials and roughly 121 and 116 in the HeraldTribune average (now v.bout 117) and between 120 nncl 109 in the New York Times average (noVi about 110). If that ra.nge holds, II substantial rally could ensue. Still believe, although the averages are close to the lows, that this range may hold. If the range is hroken, somewhat lower priceu would be indicated. In terms of the Herald-Tribune average, this would mean a possible decline to the 112-109 area which Vlould be the entire top count of the early 19L.8' distribution period. Individual issues still remain in trading rc.ngr.s that may turn out to be base areas. These individual areas ;lay hold even though the averages work lOVier. Favor purchase of issues that have built up base areas and have also declined to about their indicated reaction levels as noted in master list of October 14th. October 29, 1946 EDMUND IV. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-J ones Industrials DOVi-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 164.21 46.52 59.64 The opinions expressed in this letter ore the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell end ere not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 30, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 30, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 30, 1946
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Technical Market Action After a sharp sell-off durjng tile middle of th8 day, Wednesday's market rallied sharply in the final'hour and regained the majority of the day's losses. The rally in the industrial averages from the two a' clock price of 161.10 Vias 3.10 at the closing price of 164.20, off one cent on the day. The rails rallied 1.09 in the final hour, from 45.54 to a closing level of 46.63,up eleven cents on the day. for the day was 1,940,000 shares with 580,000 shares traded in the last hour. At Wednesday's low of 160.49, the industrial !lVerage penetrated the October lOth low of 161.61. However, the rails failed to confirm by holding above theil' comparable low of 44.00. The rails intra-day Iowan Wednesday was 45.26. Based on closing prices, both averages held above their previous lows of 16).12 and 44.69. Believe Wednesday's action definitely encouraging as the possible base formations are still intact. /rt has been rather difficult to remain bullish during the last few days in the face of general bearishness and nervousness. However, in following the technical approach the action of the graphs is the thing that counts rather than one's feelings and emotions. So far,nothing has happened to alter the possibility that the formation since early has been a re-accumulation period. This is particularly true of individual issues which, if the formation holds, have built up some very formidable bases. It must bo remembered that as early as September lOth, the industrial averages reached a low of 166.56. At Wednesday's low, fifty days later, the was only about six points lower. During this period the market has fluctuated widely and in spite of general peSSimism has not worked very much lower./, Still believe tile market a better purchase than sale at current levels. Still the odds favor the possibility that a base is being formed, particularly in individual issues. Even if the base formation is penetrated dovmside, would not expect ally worse t.han 112-109 in the Herald-Tribune average, in wrich the recent 10Vi was arolmd However, believe a substantial rally could take place before these figures are reached,. if they are ever reached in this phase. October 30, 1946 EDMUND IV. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing DOVi-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Davt-Jones 65-Stock 164.20 46.64 59.64 The opinions in this letter ere the perM)n61 interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - November 01, 1946
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Technical Market Action The Market continued its pn Friday With the rails leading the parade. The rail average has penetrated the previous resistance levels and now indicates an intermediate uptrend. The rail average cdvanced 1.57 to close at 50.63. This is the first time in almost a year thct the rails have shown better than market action. All during the February-May distribution, the rail average hEd been the laggo.rd. The industrials also close.d higher at 171.76, up 2.61 on the day. This averv.ge has rallied over 11 points in 11 hours and it would be normal to expect soml) slowing up shortly. . It would appear that we are in an intermediate uptrend. The rails have already confirmed this. Expect the industrials, after further backing and filling, to follow. Objectives for the rally on the Dow-Jones averages are not clear. However, expect the New York Herald-Tribuna-average, now about 120, to reach 126-129. The 1946 high was 137 1/2. Expect a selective adVtlllCie with some issues showing much better than average action.; , each is sue Listed has buHt below are tVlenty-five stockl. up a strong base pattern wi.th They were indications os ef l ea.cltaerdg ebercaaul lsye , percentagewise if the formation is penetrated on the upside. In a number of a cases this has already happened. If so, it is noted b,y next to the upside penetration pOint. From a technical viewpoint, these issUes' appear to offer better profit possibilities than the average iepue and would suggest switching other issues into this group. Most of them ha've already been recommended as they reached their downside objectives during the past few weeks. Purchase is advised on soft spots. Technical developments in each issue will be noted in this letter from hereon. American o.r anamid Amer. & Foreign Pro 2nd pf American Rolling Mills Atchison Baltimore &OhiO, pfd Bethlehem Steel E. W. Bliss J. I. Case CertBin-teed Cities Service Doehler Jarvis Eagle Picher Evans Products General Cable Illinois Central Inter. Minerals Mead National SUpply Rayonier Revere Copper Reynolds Metals Simmons Union Bag U. S. RUbber U. S. Steel 1946 High 63 3/4 44 1/8 42 3/8 121 47 1/4 . 114 3/4 33 1/4 55 25 7/8 41 7/8 37 7/8 30 1/8 33 3/4 16 3/8 45 1/2 45 30 5/8 25 33 31 3/4 45 1/2 56-7/8 39 80 97 3/8 Recent Low 41 1/4 18 29 5/8 78 18 1/2 88 1/4 18 1/4 33 15 1/2 20 1/4 23 3/4 19 15 1/4 8 1/2 18 1/8 27 18 '3/8 12 1/8 17 1/4 18 24 1/2 33 1/4 23 51 1/2 65 1/8 Upside Breakout Point 50 23 36 91 25 102 23 41 20 27 29 23 22 12 24 34 21 18 21 23 31 42 31 62 75 Last 47 24 35 7/8 90 1/4 24 96 2l 1/4 363/4 18 1/4 26 1/4 28 2l 1/2 19 11 24 3/4 30 5/8 22 14 1/4 19 5/8 22 30 7/8 37 1/2 28 5/8 56 1/4 73 5/8 November 1, 1946 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock EDMUND W,. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY 171.76 50.63 62.94 The opinions ezpreqed this letter ete the personal interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. rebell, end er. not presented as the opinion. of Shield. Company. —, '.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - November 04, 1946
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Technical Market Action The market continued to move ahead on Mondayalthough profit taking shaded some of the gains in the final hour of trading. The pace of the advance has been rapid and it would seem only normal if at least some consolidation took place at or around present levels. Both the rail and utility averages have signalled inter- mediate uptrends and the industrial average is close to its decontrol rally high of 177.05. The New York Times and Herald-TribuDe averages are also close to signalling intermediate uptrends, if already have not done so on Monday. Figures on these &terages for Monday's market are not available at present writing. . Neex term price movement may be influenced b,y the results of Tuesday's election, but it would appear that the technical action of the market indicates that we are in an intermediate uptrend Jith the New York Herald-Tribune apprQX1matoly 121, showing a price objective of 126-129. The action of individual stocks remains favorable and continued retention of the twenty-five issues recently recommended is advised. All of these issues have substantial base patterns and indicate higher price levels. November 4, 1946 EIMJND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 174.40 51.10 63.86 The opinions exprer;sed in this letter are the personel interpretetioD of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. Tobell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 06, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 06, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - November 06, 1946
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Technical Market Action The oarket opened fractionally higher Wednesday on the over- night election news but profit taking soon in lower prices. Vleakness in commodities broug11t in further hcaV'J selling and ot the close, the industrial was do.vn 5.52 at 168.88 and the rails were 2.48 lower at 1.8.62. Volume was 2,000,000 shares On the surface, Wednesday's action was discouraging. However, it must be borne in mind that the industrial average rallied over 16 points in 1 trading hours, one of the sharpest rallies on record. At Wednesday's close, the average had lost about half of this rf'.pid gain. The market for the past six or seven weeks has been felO.tured by extremely sharp dips and recoveries with the averlO.ges moving up li.nd dOm four or five pointn in a single trading session. While this action is not conducivE. to ease of mind, i t does build up possible base areas very rapidly. So far, nothing has happened to alter this pattern of possible re-accumulation. This is parti- cularly true of individual issues that hlO.vC' already reached their longer term downside objectives and have continued to fluctuate in a na.rroVi trading range near these lovls. Still am of the opinion that these areas will prove to be re-accumulation bases and believe t!1e present weakness can be used to purchase the twenty-five issues recently recommended. Particu.a.rly like the rails and steels along with Cities Service and Reynolds Metals. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY November 6, 1946 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 168.88 LJ3.62 61.55 The opinions expressed in this letter are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabel! and are net presented as the opinions of Shields & Company

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 12, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 12, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - November 12, 1946
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Technical Market Action Written Francisco Good news for the market has in the past few weeks met with discouraging response marketwise. Tuesday's action followed the usual pattern after an initial rally, with the industrial averages opening approximately a point and a half higher. The market dragged lower for the balance of the session and closed off on the day. Volume, except for the first hour vlhen prices were advancing, was small. This sort of 8 ction is obviously depressing. However, it is the usual' procedure of an accumulating phase and alters in no way the basic pattern of the market. Irregularity of the sort recently witnessed may continue for a while longer. Patterns of individual issues show quite diverse formations with some stocks indicating moderately lower prices while others appear ready to start up on an intermediate move of fairly sizable proportions. Selectivity may well be a feature of the market. With that thought in mind continue to advise accumulation of the twenty-five issues recently selected as having interesting profit possibilities for the intermediate term. However, would await periods of weakness for buying. Recent action of the paper and pulp issues has been favorable, Two issues, Rayonier and Union Bag, are on our list and merit consideration in any buying program. EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Novembel\. 12, 1946 . Closj.!).g Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 170.87 50.12 62.56 The opinions expressed in this letter' the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabel! and are not presented tIS the opinions of Shields & Company.

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