Viewing Month: October 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 04, 1946
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Technical Market Action The market continuos to back fill and, in the .rriter's is in the process of forming a bas, or accumulati.on aren prior to a !'uly -.,hat rill retrrce one-third to two-thirds of the decline frOl the bull market hlghs. This process may take some further timc bafore emelging out of the posfible base formation on the tipddc. The background u5ulllly found in nccumulatior, periods is pn'sent today, namely, nervousness and general bearishness, lOll volume and lck of )Jublie interest. In the process, some further time may be consumed tmd prices may work r. little lower. However, continuod backing and filling within the con1'ins; of thG nccumulation increc.ses ,.he rally possibili ttl'S. The patt.';rn not yet bC' complete and, therefore, it is not possible t.o suggGst upside objectives for indiVidual issuc.;G. Ho,lever, a great mnny issues have built up sizeable (lreaS thnt have the l1pjJoarance of Dr.Se formations. /,merican Rolling Mills is a case in point. . The high for the y,e.r is 42 3/8. Tha stock spEnt considerable time in the 41-39 Illld built l.'P hat turned out to be a dlstributional are!) around pricEs. The top count of t.hiG distri- bution zona indico.ted a decline to the 32-26 IU0a and the previous TJattern aIM ,indicated support at 29. ThE' stock's buying i.n our list of early September \las 32-29. The low of the reCGn t d(3cline ,12.5 30 1/8. The fluctuations of recent flo'eks ha'te built up a pattern betwPGn tho full figure points of 35 and 31 thlJ.t st.ggests a strong formation. At 'the mompnt, oi.lity to rench 36 be bullish signal e.nd confirm the opinion that the pattun in re-accuffiulation n.rea. If the stock continues to hold abovc 32, the pattm is especiall, as the head and shouloGrs form2t.ion nO\7 prEs!'nt El posslble rE.lly, if 36 is reached, to a ne'l high in the 45-47 area. Even if tile stock declines i.o the 32 or 31 arce., the base vould still suggest a rally to 39-41 if 3( is reached. Of course, a contilluance of fluctuations in above areas ';,olud furthar broaden the ba.sc and suggest even !1ic;her rally pos5ibilit.j.e3 if 36 were penetrat.ed. A dedi8 below the recent low of 30 lis would nocessitate Ie. new base puttern at lower levels. This probably would delay the for a consLdcrable tim period. There are l.1any other iSSues thai, he.ve, in the last few wueks, built' up si.milar pll.tterns t.o AmErican Rollirlg 1,1Uls. In fact most of the issues th&t reached the buylng are'l.S aentioned in the SPoptember lutt.crs hlwe such patterns thcugh in many cases 'they do not suger-t qui. to as much percc.n te ge appreciation, October 4, 1946 Closing Doye-Jone L!1dustrials Dow-Jones RD.ils 65-Stock EDMUND Ii. TABELL SHIELllS &. ANY 169.80 47.10 61.09 Th. opinionpressed in this letter ere the personal interpretation of chtll' by M,. Edmund W. Teb.II lind e'. nof presenfed as tfle opinion. of Shield. & Complny. . -.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 07, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 07, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 07, 1946
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Technical Market Action market continues to back and fill and gives the appearance of building up a area between the recent high of 175.45 and the September low of 164.08. These two figures are the important points to watch for the moment. Abili ty to rally above the 175.45 level woul.d indicate an intermediate uptrend in the primary bear market. A reaction below the 164.08 level would indicate a continuation of the downtrend to the Last week ..e mentioned the technical pattern of American Rolling Mills and its possible base pattern. The confirmation of the base and the indication of an uptrend would be a sale at 36. Listed belon are a number of issues with formations somewhat similar to that of American Rolling Mills, together with their favorable pen8tration point and their recent low. All of these issues suggest possible accumulation – AAllegheny Ludlum Allied Stores Allis Chalmers American Foreign Pro 2nd pfd. Anaconda Copper Bliss (E.W.) Crane & Company Jones & Laughlin Locr.heed Mead Corporation National Distillers Rayonier Republic Steel Revere Copper Reynolds Metals Union Bag U. S. Rubber u. S. Steel Recent Low 38 36 36 5/8 19 35 1/8 181/2 33 1/2 33 1/4 26 1/2 18 3/8 21 1/2 171/4 25 18 24 1/2 23 51 5/8 66 Favorable At 45 42 42 24 40 23 39 40 33 22 26 21 30 23 31 30 62 73 Last Sale 42 1/2 39 1/8 37 21 1/4 37 1/4 201/2 35 1/2 35 3/4 28 1/4 22 1/4 231/2 18 26 1/2 19 3/4 26 1/4 27 1/4 571/4 68 3/4 A very small group of issues have already penetrated favorable upside levels, but the number is so small that there is the possibility of a false signal, Prominent in this select group is Bethlehem Steel which penetrated upside resistance at 96. Its base pattern suggests a rally to the 109-111 area. EDMUND Fl. TABELL october 7, 1946 SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials DOIJ-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 168.87 46.65 60.71 The opinions expressed in thiS letter are the perlonal interpretation of cherh by Mr. Edmund W. iebell end are not presented liS the opinions of Shield. & Company

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 08, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 08, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 08, 1946
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Technical Market Action After an early morning rally led by the stGels, weakness in General Motors and Chrysler startGd another selling wave on Tuesday and the industrial -laverage sold off shnrpl,v'to close 1.53 10Vier at 167.34. Tne rail average at 46.32, off 33 cents, acted relatively better thnn the industrials. Volume was 1,220,000 shares Vii th trading increaSing on the last hour sell-off. Tuesday's action was discouraging for the near term inasmuch as it casts some doubt on the ability of the averages to hold at the September 10Vis. The market has closed in seven of the last trading days and, volume has been low, the market has sho\m little ability to rally. The pickup in volume in the hour suggests the possibility of a renewal of liquidating pressure. HoV/ever, would consider any sharp sell-off from this level as a buying opportunity. A break below the September lovls of 164.013 Vlould undoubtedly some discouraged selling into the market and might cause a sharp break to the figures we have often mentioned as the ultimate downside objective, namely, 160-157 in the Dow-Jones industrial average, 107-100 in the New York Times average and 112-110 in the New York Herald-Tribune average. Would be in- clined to follow the last two averages as they both are combined averages and may more truly reflect the general picture. In other words, I7hile the market may work somewhat lower if the September lows are lJroken, would expect long term support near the figures men tioned above and 1V0uld buy on further \leruness. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY October 8, 1946 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials 167.34 Dow-Jones Rails 46.32 DoV/-Jones 65-Stock 60.20 The opInions expressed in this letter ate the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the op1nions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 09, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 09, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 09, 1946
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Technical Market Action The decline continued on Wednesday and the industrial average closed at a new 10Vi' of J.63.12, 0.ovm (1 22 compared with the 80ptember 10Vi closing of 165.17. The Sptemb(;r intra.day low of L64.09 rIll.S alsc pen9tre.ted at slow ef 162.80. Th. rail !lVOregb 111so clos(;0. at a 'lew 10Vl at 1.4.69, dOHn comparGd with tj',e September low closing of 45.69. The intra- dey low \IUS 44.50 IIhile til(; Sept.eL\ber low lveS 1,.4.76. Volume increftGed to 2,020,000 shares. Wednesday' ,,ctiOll suggests b. declir.e to t!1c oftm ment.ioned 10'/-100 area in the Ne; Times average. While \'!ednesday's closing is not availa!le at present I.Titing, believe t.i1e avercge closed firOlmc J.09-110. A compamble figure is 112-110 in the Herald-Tribune avcrllf.e hich believe closod around 116. i, compareble fj gure in he Ilol'!-Jones indJstr.al aVErat;e would be around 'rhes fi;uro8 arc the top count indications of the n1,ire FebruurJ to r,!ay dist.ribution period. In'li vidual issues sho a Sl.muar pat.tern. ,\ gr6rtt ,Jony have reached t.heir dormsido objectives. j, list, of these objectives or Ollying r('s was listed earl;, in Septon,br. A study of thE' list. 11111 shm thpt -Lhe majori. t.y liuvE' hold lilt thin tl,e) aonfincs of obj ecti.vfJ levels. Other indi- vidual. issues suggest some'fhat lower prices Dnd declines in these issues, while otlJrs aro holdin!s, could carry the averages do;m to the figures INmtiolled above. \'iould usc, further 'IIcamess into the 112-110 anon of the Hemld- Tribune or 107-100 in Nev, York nmes everage, to buy issups mentioned, togtlther Vlith their buying ranr.;or, in lett.ers. The decline C'f Wednesdc..'1 wal the sixth successi'e d,W of ,',eli., anu the nint.h out of thE tEn past trading days. Early wealmess on 'l'hursrl,l,\' could be foJ.loHed by at. lRst a technical rally. outsta.1ding indi.vidual issures suegt'st I.nerican Rolling Mills, Doehler-J..T'vis and Revre Copper .f t.h( averages rch t.he 2.bove mentioned areas. October 9, 1946 EDiAUN D i TABELL SHIELDS & CO;,lPAl'IY l l i l.. ! l . DoV/-J Olle S Industrials D017-J OnE'S RailS Dow-Jones 65-Stock 163.12 44.69 58.53 The opinions pressed in this letter ere the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tebel! end ate not pres,,'nted as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 10, 1946
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Technical Market Action After six days of the anticipated rally took place on Thursday. The industrial after rec.ching a low of 161. 61, closed at 164.94 – up on the day. The rail averago cl.osed 1.00 h.ighcr at 45.69 after reaching a 10w of 44.00. Volume was just equal to the previoun day at 2,220,000 shares. the averages broke out of the 175-165 truding range on the dovmside, a majori ty of the individual i SSlles still have , pc.ttern that could turn out to be It buse pattern. These patt.erns llsually take It long pcriud of time to form and cover a wide price range. l'or instance, t.he distribu- tional on averages and on individual issues for this decline Has formed betVlGon January and If/ay of this year. During thi.s period the indus- trial average fluctuated between 213 mid 185. Individual stocks in the 50 price range fluctuated in a ten point area in a buildJng up of a distribu- tional zone. It mus b be expected that the same process \li11 tlUce place in building up an base period. It is a bit too early at the moment to attempt to name the limits of this range. This mUCh, hOl'mver, can be said. In the paGt, the New York 100-Stock average has the best of price objectivee for the longer term while tho other Uleruges have been excellent in forecasting pri.ce ob,jectives for the shortrlr swings. On Wednesday, this aver;ge reached a low of 1l6.12 and presumably was somewhat lOVier on Thursday. The I'lri.ter's technical work indicates that the downside objective for the preS81T, bear markt on this average is the 112-109 ,rea. Obviously, per- . fect acwracy is not to be expected and the ultirate' l017 may be a point or two em either si.de. ,lhether this objectivb .is to be reached immediately or after a further rally is not indicated. However, the important thing to be borne in mind is that the average has reacted from a hi gh of approxima- tely 137. Thus the has already reacted 21 pain ts. It is possible thilt a furthr.r correction of frol'l 4 to 7 points may be seen but, at l16, the average has already completed 75 to 85 of the correction. In indivi- dual issues, undoubtedly mmy have reached or are 'fGry close to their lo\'/s. It is these issues that have been ment.Ioned in previous buying rnnge letters. Other stocks hav\) somewhat further to go. 'rhE.ir b1\yingrnnges vlill be listed as the levels are approached. Would use periods of t.o accumulate recommended issues as buying ranges nre reached. Expect a wide trading over the next few as individual issues and the av('rages l'lLlild up bas!) at'8RS in a yet to be defined rnnge. EDMUND VI. TABFLL October 10, 1946 SHIELDS & Closing Do\,,-Jones Industrials DOO7-JQne s Rails Don-Jones 65-Stock l64.94 45.69 59.34 The opinions e.pressed in this letter are the personal interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tbeli and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 14, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 14, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 14, 1946
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Technical Market Action The market the 1'0 1evel on Monday, Q rdly of hpproxi- 8jgh1.. points i'ram tho Ions of the .oast YlOek. Tho I.tde fluctuc..tions of thtl past month DIld e half c,mtinue to buij,d up a bro,,-d t1'Ild4.ng which, in my Opillion, 'Pill f)vGntue.Uy turn OHt to be a base forlnut.ion. Considbrably mor,o time maybe sppnt in the 'n'ea and would expect the outer limits t.o bo Ilider than til(' nt 1'75-162 ranp,8. lJe118'lG lIe -1'8 in a period the rnv()rse of' to ,qay heY1 th& jndustrid aVerHO fludullted ill tj'8 v;id(J 213-185 .. .in building up , d..lstribut,ional vho.sIJ. \ i 11 t, cftcr ..' (.If In builaing 'IP tuthe p.cosant Gyral.;ions 'lccumu2.a t.i on aroa moaf''nre thE. 6xtent ()f t.bo., nct lont. term riso. Prc.'sent il1dications POiEt to the 112-109 levl of the New Y,)rk lkrald-Tl'lbuuC' cver8.ge as the extr8f18 low but ..u extr8mf.ly sll&rp rally could take place bE-fo.tc these prices are seen. In individual l.be steel group seems to be sharline; the bGst tecmicll actic.'ll. 1'Ollld look to thi. group to funich tht clUE to the dir()ctio!l ()f th; next intermcdic'.te rnOV0. Ability of i1lnoricrul Rolling jLUlls La rend, 36, of Beth ehem 2t1)(1 t-J 100 and U. S. SteeJ to rc,ach 73, would imllca– a bl'oa-l extellGion of tilL 1'l.11y. Hc.ve compiled a list of sti –;ks togc t.J1;r with tbei.r indi.catcd reactl'Jn ll''1(,18 ao technically ',-,easnrd by the to dif-trtbution11 or()2… This lisl. 'Idll lJ,.;\ sent yo.. requ8st. . Tl'JJELL October 14, 16 DOil-jones Industrinls DOVJ-lTol1es Rai1s Dow-J 011('S 65-St0C 169.86 46.e6 61.01 1lte opiniOftS nprened iI. this I.tter ere the personel interpretetion of cherb by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell end ar. not p'Mented .s the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 15, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 15, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 15, 1946
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Technical Market Action The industrial average closed 6.08 higher on Tuesday, in thfJ sharpst rally since the start of the decline. closing level of 175.94 was above the September rally closing of l74.9h. The also rallied sharply to gain 2.14 at 49.00. This closing level was-also above the comparable September high. The market looks higher. Ability of Bethlehem and U. S. Steel to rally above their former resistance is teclmically reassuring. The steels, as a group, show the best technical action. Other favorable groups are the metals, building stocks and utilities. other important penetration points are stores at 42, American Bank Note at 32, American & Foreign Fouer 2nd pfd. at 24, American Rolling Mills at ;6, Anaconda at 1.0, Bliss at 23, Jones & I,augr,lin at 40, Kc;mnecott at 48, R8public Steel at 30, Reynolds Metals at 31, \\heeling Stepl at 1.3. l'.'hile the market looks higher, would expect a consol id3tion somewhere along the line before the top is reached. The market has rallied ovet' 13 points in less than a week. EDMUND H. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY October 15, 1946 II Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 175.94 49.00 63.26 – ———, The opinions flxpreued in this letter ere the perOnel interpretation of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabn and arl1 not presented a. the opinion. of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 17, 1946
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Technical Market Action Weakness in commodittes, with both cotton and hec.t off the allon' able limits for th6 dcy, cunsed wealmes's in t,l1(' market on Thursduy. Prices rallied from the mid-day lows ,end at the the industrial aver'age lost 2.59 e.nd the rails Viere down ),1.05 at pl.76 and 47.59, respectively. Volume f't 1,JIO,000 shares ms 1dow the of week. V/hil8 the decline came someuhat mor'e rapidly than expected it hs still held wi thin normal corl'ecti VEo bounds. From the low of 161. 61 rcuhed last Thul'sda, the industrial c.yerage rebolmded to a high of 177.05 on I!edn.esday of this This is c. rully of 15.L.1. in five tl'uding da;rs. This is an extremely rl'.pid advance which, as mentioned in s lettor, left the market somewhat vulnerable from a technical vleVipoint. At s loVi of 170.47, the industrial avera go had reacted iro;', the high 'cI' 'h rotrttCeulent of F.DDr,ox'L- mately 42 of the advance. \ Another technical element that might be menti.oned this time is the theory of gap openings. 'i'his subject is extrcmely technical and the int&r- , pretations of it vary widely according to the different methods used. However, ohIO Dverages opened IIi th a gap on 'lUesda;) ce.uscd by th.' fact thut the high of the previous day Vias 170.60 ,hile the 10\, of TuesuEcy was 173.08 – thuf' leaving a gap of betwcc'1 the runges of the tHO days. Thursday's ref.ction to tt lOll of 170.47 closed thio gap. In SODe ci.rcles, the theory is that these gaps must he even tuslly cloSed. From this viewpoint, the rapid clolling of the gap is constructive. However, it mi.ght 8.1so lle arued that a differGnt of , thought may be dlsapPinted by the fact that the gap was not of thD breakaway type that uEually dEno teo an extremely shttrp raJ ly before. the gap is closed at some remote future time. ThE' si tl.!ation is further cornplicat8d by the fact thc.t the average also 0pEmed with a do\'msidc gap on Thursday ,vhen the high of the day was 173.61 agdnst a 101 of 174.03 on V;ad.'18sday – thU8 leav1.ng a s,naller gcp of 43 cents. This fact is also subject -L,' diffGrcnt iuLerprctcLi'Jlls. It. could be argued th.t this gap should bG filled Shortly 01' thnt PQSGibly th,a !s.p, wi th 1,h3.t of, Tuflsday' s, denotes an island revrsal, ler.vi.ng the of TuesdllJ' and Wednesday detached from tho main formation. This Hould be inter- preted bearishly. As I said be-fore, the sub,i ect ,xtrmnely complicr, ted and of doubtful tecp.nicul vuiue and, at the moment, I nm sorr;y I brought it up. Of groatcr value, may be the fact th1tt individual situations are able to move hif,lHr agaipst the treml as ,laS evidenced by Pepl,i-Coln on ThursdlY. ThE. stock rnoved up two Joints in a reactionary general l!lDxket. Thin is quit& tho reverse of the action of the past few months whon ilfdividunl issues were selling off in days .,hen tho gcntlral market Vias advunci.ng. This latter warJ one warning indication of tho decline. Ponsibly, the action of. Pepsi-Cola may be a harbinger of better thing3 to come. Still believe the market can bo bought on noft spots. Particularly like Rolling li!ills, Bethlehem Certain-t.eed, Doehler-J.J.rvis, International Minorals, Penn-Dixie Cemont, Revere Copper, Reynolds If.etds, Union Bag and I'/heeling Steel. october 17, 1946 EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing DOH-Jones Industri.als \ Dow-Jones Rails DO;I-J ones 65-Stock 171.76 47.59 61.72 Th. opinions alp,…ed in this letter are the penonal interpretation of cll.rh. by Edmund W. labell and ara not presented as the opinions of Shield. & Comp.y.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 21, 1946
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Technical Market Action The market was a rather tame affair for tbc first four hours of Monday's session. Frices were irregular and volume was extremely small at 530,000 shares or an hourly rate of approximately 130,000 shares for the four hours. In the final hour, howover, prices firmed on an increased turnover of 290,000 sharos for the hour and the averages finished fractionally higher on the day with the industrial av('ra!e showing a gain of 59 cents at 171.93 and the rails cloRing 1 cents hjgher at 47.68. Technically, the market is excellently. Weak- ness in commodities has slight effect on stock prices and the de- creased volume and sidewise movement shows DO renewal of the selling so evident in September. Believe the market hus been jn are-accumulation area for the past month and believe the jntermediate trend will shortly be signalled as higher. Continue to like the teclmical e,ction Df recently mentioned issues, particularly American Rolling Mills, Bethlehem Steel, Doehler-Jarvis, International Minerals, Cement, Revere Copper, Reynolds Metals, Union Bag and Wheeling Steel. As a short term speculation, Sohenley also seems to be building up a sizeable base area. October 21, 1946 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industri&ls Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 171.93 47.68 61.90 The opinions expressed in this letter are the person..l interpretation of chorts by Mr. Edmund W. labell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1946

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1946

Tabell's Market Letter - October 24, 1946
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Technical Market Action Cantinue to. like the teclmical actian af the market and believe the n6xt mave af lIill be on the upside. For the past fev/ days, valur.tf, nes beer. bolaw the Ir.j L! ian sharn mark and s'll- ing pressure appf'crs to be lift'ng. The c.l.csi.l!g pric0s of the in- dustrials hr.v8 hld Vii .hin a ran;e af tllDCl o'vo Joints far the last seven tretding days e-cron tloough the na.r'cet bus h,A wide int.ra-day swings. Thi s bOicKing fill ir.g b.l'; las 11., v''der baee farma. tians af Vlhich there 'l.re now en increasjng nt'mber. When the 11.1 move \'fill start is open to question, but the fact thE'. t the aVE'r!f,s have dEc.in ';!d fer se7en out of the last eight trading days to the that et tl'rn nojght h, qui.te near. Also the fae t t, en ' t.'1C u ve.rages l',d G. eliVG-rgecl t, c10s1ng with the rC1.ils gc..ini!lg 88 CB!lt.S v.'hlle the industrirls lost 69 cents, may turn out to. oe tnlHsh development. This type of action often precedes a change of orondo Continue to. like the teclmical patterns of the indtvidual issues recently mentioned. of these stocks have built up able base patterns and,in most instances, are quite close to. upside breakouts. October 24r 1946 EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Clasing Industrials DaVl-J'Jlles Rails Dal'l-J ones 65-Stock 169.98 47.93 61.48 The opini…, upreued i.. thi.. I.M., are the personal interpretation of cham -by Edmund W. label! and ar. not presented .s the opinion. of Shields & Company.

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