Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1946

Technical Market Action The market continuos to back fill and, in the .rriter's is in the process of forming a bas, or accumulati.on aren prior to a !'uly -.,hat rill retrrce one-third to two-thirds of the decline frOl the bull market hlghs. This process may take some further timc bafore emelging out of the posfible base formation on the tipddc. The background u5ulllly found in nccumulatior, periods is pn'sent today, namely, nervousness and general bearishness, lOll volume and lck of )Jublie interest. In the process, some further time may be consumed tmd prices may work r. little lower. However, continuod backing and filling within the con1'ins; of thG nccumulation increc.ses ,.he rally possibili ttl'S. The patt.';rn not yet bC' complete and, therefore, it is not possible t.o suggGst upside objectives for indiVidual issuc.;G. Ho,lever, a great mnny issues have built up sizeable (lreaS thnt have the l1pjJoarance of Dr.Se formations. /,merican Rolling Mills is a case in point. . The high for the y,e.r is 42 3/8. Tha stock spEnt considerable time in the 41-39 Illld built l.'P hat turned out to be a dlstributional are!) around pricEs. The top count of t.hiG distri- bution zona indico.ted a decline to the 32-26 IU0a and the previous TJattern aIM ,indicated support at 29. ThE' stock's buying i.n our list of early September \las 32-29. The low of the reCGn t d(3cline ,12.5 30 1/8. The fluctuations of recent flo'eks ha'te built up a pattern betwPGn tho full figure points of 35 and 31 thlJ.t st.ggests a strong formation. At 'the mompnt, oi.lity to rench 36 be bullish signal e.nd confirm the opinion that the pattun in re-accuffiulation n.rea. If the stock continues to hold abovc 32, the pattm is especiall, as the head and shouloGrs form2t.ion nO\7 prEs!'nt El posslble rE.lly, if 36 is reached, to a ne'l high in the 45-47 area. Even if tile stock declines i.o the 32 or 31 arce., the base vould still suggest a rally to 39-41 if 3( is reached. Of course, a contilluance of fluctuations in above areas ';,olud furthar broaden the ba.sc and suggest even !1ic;her rally pos5ibilit.j.e3 if 36 were penetrat.ed. A dedi8 below the recent low of 30 lis would nocessitate Ie. new base puttern at lower levels. This probably would delay the for a consLdcrable tim period. There are l.1any other iSSues thai, he.ve, in the last few wueks, built' up si.milar pll.tterns t.o AmErican Rollirlg 1,1Uls. In fact most of the issues th&t reached the buylng are'l.S aentioned in the SPoptember lutt.crs hlwe such patterns thcugh in many cases 'they do not suger-t qui. to as much percc.n te ge appreciation, October 4, 1946 Closing Doye-Jone L!1dustrials Dow-Jones RD.ils 65-Stock EDMUND Ii. TABELL SHIELllS &. ANY 169.80 47.10 61.09 Th. opinionpressed in this letter ere the personal interpretation of chtll' by M,. Edmund W. Teb.II lind e'. nof presenfed as tfle opinion. of Shield. & Complny. . -.