Tabell’s Market Letter – May 27, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 27, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - May 27, 1983
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,————- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROA.D, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMseR NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – May 27. 1983 It is impossible to publish a market letter for 37 years without developing a few presentations whichseemtQ. recwi!h acertdegre'hofregularity.The..aPQeJlranceofthe tble.belowtends to coincide' with the rhododendron season. since it is generally issued as a prelude to a discussion of the summer-rally phenomenon. The table shows the number of times the Dow advanced and declined for each of the 57 one-month and two-month periods since 1926 and also the average percentage advance for each period. As can be seen. the market advanced in 36 of 57 years in both July and August. or in considerably more than 60 of the instances in question. By contrast. for all months. the market has advanced only 56 of the time. The average percentage advance for the 684 months since 1926 has been 0.45. whereas July has averaged a 1. 84 advance and August a 1. 44 advance. The two-month period ended August shows a similar upside bias. It is our custom to point out that this tendency toward a summer rise is not the most statistically significant item in the table. December is more likely to show an advance than either July or August. and the tendency toward a decline in September is likewise greater than the summer-rally probability. However. the predisposition of the market to advance in July-August and decline in September. is. as always. of interest. OoeMoo1berods !12261282) IwoMoo1berods !122612821 EDdMoo1b Adllaoces IJeclioes AeraSeCbS dacces Declioes Aerage&CbS Januar! 36 21 1. 00 Februar! 29 28 -0.19 March 31 26 -0.06 Aprll 32 25 1.12 M-a9 28 29 -0783 June 28 29 0.86 Jul! 36 21 1.84 August 36 21 1.44 September 22 35 -1.36 October 30 27 -0.37 November 35 22 0.70 December 42 15 1.21 —– TOTAL 385 299 0.45 37 20 32 25 27 30 35 22 -32 25 – 26 31 35 22 39 18 33 24 26 31 34 23 40 17 396 288 !.28 0.81 -0.34 1.14 0. 50 -0.02 2.65 3.42 0.05 -1.690.37 –1-.9-40.93 As noted at the outset. we have been -publishing the figures above for some time. It is one thing to publish figures and another to interpret them. At this time last year. the Dow found itself probing for a bottom in the low 800's. We. therefore. suggested that. due to the tendency toward a summer rally. the market's low was likely to occur either in June. prior to the rally. or sometime in the fall. after the rally took place. This was based on the theory that there was no case on record of a major cycle low's having occurred in July or August. Suffice it to say there is now. Despite our previous wildly unsuccessful attempt at interpretation we are perfectly willing to assay another one. The market is. of course. in a totally different position than that of a year ago. having posted a 60 rise since last year's first-on-record -August low. Under these condition the emergence of the usual rallying tendency this summer would.appearto be,. it anything, more likely than usual. The pronounced summer-rally tendency. it seems to us. mitigates against the immediate emergence of the sort of deep correction which some analysts ,still seem to expect. If such a correction does in fact emerge. existing seasonal patterns. as noted at the beginning of this letter. would seem to argue that it might occur sometime in the early fall. It will be interesting to see if summer. 1983 conforms to the usual case or. like 1982. presents an entirely new configuration. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1221. 36 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m. ) 165.36 Cumulative Index (5/26/83) 1949.07 No ltalement or e)(prelon 01 opinion or any other matter herein ontomed IS, or 1 to be deemed to be, dlfeClly or ,nd,rectly. on offer or the sollcllotron of on offer 10 bvy or ell any sec\.lrlty referred to Or menlloned The matter IS preented merely for the convenience of The subcrober While oNe believe the sources of our 'nformolion 10 be reliable, we ,n no woy represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any octlon to be token by The subSCriber should be boed on hiS own InvesilgaTlon ond information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or moy laTer toke, positions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or ony fuTure Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter el'pressed In' thl or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS regisTered With the sEC as on Investment adVisor, may give odvlce to ItS ,vestment odvlOry and othel customers mdependently of any statements mode in thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secunty mentioned herem IS aVailable on request

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