Tabell’s Market Letter – September 23, 1977

– -… – — TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – . 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE September 23, 1977 Following an attempt to bottom at around the 850 level, the Dow slid on Wednesday and —Thursday-to yet-another- newlow-;-reachlng- whbelw–the'840 level-.-,…Slnce .Its,hlgh,of last-September ' (a year ago this week), the average Is now down more than 17 and, on the record, if the phrase bear market does not soon become widely heard, It probably should be. And yet, what we have here appears to be a somewhat unique beast. This can be documented, we think, by asking our readers to bear with us through the following table of numbers. The table shows every one of the 24 declines of 10 or more that have taken place since 1946 and, In the last three columns, the percentage decline, the number of days the decline required and, finally, the average decline per day expressed In hundredths of percentage points. This latter figure Is not nearly as esoteric as It sounds, since It Is an accurate measure of the speed with which the market Is going lower — In other words, the steepness of the drop. Start Date May 29 1946 Feb 8 1947 Jul 24 1947 Jun 15 1948 Jun 12 1950 Jan 5 1953 Scp 23 1955 Apr 6 1956 .\ug 2 1956 Jul 12 1957 Aug 3 1959 Jan-5-16-o Dec 13 1961 May 14 1965 Feb 9 1966 Scp 25 1967 Dec 3 1968 Apr 28 1971 Jan 11 1973 Oct 26 1973 Mar 13 1974 Nov 5 1974 Jul 15 1975 Sep 21 1976 DJIA End Date 212.50 Oct 9 1946 1fl4.49 May 17 1947 186.85 Mar 16 1948 193.16 Jun 13 1949 228.38 Jul 13 1950 293.79 Sep 14 1953 487.45 Oct 11 1955 521. 05 t1ay 28 1956 520.95 Feb 12 1957 520.77 Oct 22 1957 678.10 Nov 9 1959 b-8-5 o-4/-Oc t-251'96-0 – 734.91 Jun 26 1962 939.62 Jun 28 1965 995.15 943.08 Oct 7 1966 Mar 21 1968 985.21 May 26 1970 950.82 Nov 23 1971 1051.70 Aug 22 1973 987.06 Dec 5 1973 891.66 Oct 4 1974 674.75 Dec 6 1974 881. 81 Oct 1 1975 1014. 79 Scp 21 1977 – DJIA 163.12 163.21 165.39 161. 60 197.44 255.49 438.59 468.81 454.82 419.79 550.92 566-05 535.76 840.59 744.32 825.13 631.16 797.97 851. 90 788.31 584. 56 577. 60 784.16 840.78 decline No.of Days Per Day -23.24 93 25.0 -11. 53 81 14.2 -11. 49 182 6.3 -16.34 281 5.8 -13.55 22 61. 6 -13.04 176 7.4 -10.02 12 83.5 -10.03 36 27.9 -12.69 132 9.6 -19.39 71 27.3 -18.76 68 -17-'42–2-05 27.6 . -B;-5- -27.10 134 20.2 -10. 54 30 35.1 -25.21 167 15.1 -12.51 122 10.3 -35.94 367 9.8 -16.08 146 11. 0 -19.00 154 12.3 -20.14 27 74.6 -34.44 143 24.1 -14.40 22 65.5 -11. 07 55 20.1 -17.15 252 6.8 – Let us look first at the column which shows the percentage decline for each of the 24 drops. The present dip of 17.15 has been exceeded by only nine previous downswings over a 31- year period, most of those now recognized as having been major bear markets. It seems quite clear that,ln terms of the Dow at least, what has happened over the past year Is approaching reasonably serious proportions. What Is strange about the current Instance, however, Is the number of days which It has taken the present stock market to arrive at Its present level. The decline has been exceeded In number of trading days by only two markets In the past, those of 1968-70 and 1948-49, and, If the market continues lower, that last record will be exceeded In another month. Even If one chooses to – -vlenlfecentlre perloa'January;1973-Decembe-;-t974'a's'one'ofcontinuousdeClIne-; It totals OiiJy-43'j days. We are rapidly, In the present case, g'ettlng Into that league. In terms of steepness, however, we have quite clearly at the moment one of the flattest drops In three decades of market hlsOry. Only two declines have moved downward at a slower rate those within the basing period of the late 1940' s. Almost every decline that has come to be known as a major bear market has Involved a considerably steeper drop than the current case,and,even for the first 252 days of the 1970 decline, the rate was a good deal steeper than the current one. A glance at the table quite clearly demonstrates, as far as we are able to see, that this sort of flatness appears characteristic of Intermediate-term drops rather than major downswings. Dow-Jones Industrials (1100 p.m.) 841.48 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Composite (1l00 p.m.) 95.23 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (9/22/77) 654.45 AWT/jb No statement or epreSlon of opinion or any other matlcr herem contaIned Is, or , to be deemed to be, dorectly or tndtrecily, on offer or the 101l(llollon of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The molter ., presented merely for the conve,cn of the subcrlber WhIle we believe the sources of our Information 10 be reliable, we In no way represent Of guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of Ihe stolcmenls mude herein Any odlcn to be toen by Ihc subKrlber should be bosed on hiS own Invcsllgolron and Information Janney Montgomery ScalI, Inc. 0 0 corporation, and .IS offIcers or employees, may now hove, or may loler toke. POSitions or Irades In respect 10 any securities mentioned In Ihls or ony future IUe, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter e,.prcsscd In thiS or any other issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVISor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVisory and othel C\Jslomers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other ISsue Further Information on ony seo,mty mentioned herein IS ovallable on request