Tabell’s Market Letter – November 29, 1974

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMlte NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE November 29, 1974 -'Often anencoufaging signinth'EistocK ma-rKeifis'theaoility to'llOldih'tJ1e-dbwiiSldeonJectTve – of a previous distributional top rather than exceeding that objective by a considerable margin. For the time being, at least, the stock market did just that last week, reaching the 610-580 level which had been the downside objective of the distribution formation at 680-630 and rebounding sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday to close reaching a Wednesday intraday high of 633.45. While mildly encouraging, the week's action does not alter the uncertainties outlined in last week's letter. Although we can reaffirm the probability that the market, as of early October. entered a basing phase, it is still too early to predict what the shape of that base will be or where its lower limit will ultimately wind up. Equally difficult to predict is the eventual timing of the ul- timate ups ide breakout. One possible set of grounds for optimism, however, lies in the season into which we are en- tering, i. e., December. The table below gives the closing Dow-Jones Industrial Average for December 10, December 20 and December 31 of each year from 1926 to 1973, expressed as a per- centage of the November close. (Where the market was closed on the date, the previous close is used.) There is, as can be seen, a pronounced tendency toward an upside market in the month of December, particularly in the first third and the latter third of the month. In 37 cases out of the 48, the market closed higher in December than it had in November, and in 38 cases out of 48 it was higher at the close than it had been on December 20. In 31 instances the market was up between the November close and the tenth of December. However, there is sgme,ten.cie!H;yt9't1ar(t.YI'ea!c!ls.. q1 Itlid-month .'fItth .tlle .mSlIkethaying,.been dO'l1 from the tentlL!Q…. the twentieth in almost half of the cas'es .'- ' Year 12/10 12/20 12/31 Year 12/10 12/20 12/31 1926 101.96 102.68 100.42 1950 99.87 101.58 103.43 1927 99.08 101.37 102.11 1951 102.34 102.37 103.05 1928 89.97 96.12 102.26 1952 100.31 101.01 102.91 1929 109.73 96.63 103.99 1953 99.12 100.77 99.83 1930 94.87 92.38 89.74 1954 100.86 102.73 104.56 1931 87.84 86.02 82.99 1955 100.91 99.71 101.06 1932 108.70 104.31 106.35 1956 104.32 103.74 105.65 1933 104.87 97.09 101.79 1.957 97.64 94.96 96.85 1934 99.83 96.75 101.07 1958 101.36 102.96 104.89 1935 99.97 98.00 101.25 1959 102.06 102.65 103.06 1936 99.43 96.94 98.19 1960 102.29 102.95 103.13 1937 102.62 104.54 97.87 1961 100.92 100.13 101.32 1938 98.99 100.43 103.30 1962 99.35 99.88 100.43 1939 101.54 102.36 103.12 1963 102.50 101.54 101.66 1940 1941 1942 100.28 95.43 101.31 98.37 94.38 103.71 100.10 97.14 104.28 1964 1965 1966 98.60 100.64 102.71 99.23 100.58 100.38 99.85 102.38 99.25 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 104.22c 102.70 102.18 103.55 98.99 103.04 101.63 105.04104.88 102.21 103.39 98.90 100.76 104.69 104.30 100.93 100.98 103.29 103.56 102.96 104.48 –1967,' -,-101.3L 1968 99.25 1969 96.51 1970 103.40 1971 103.06 1972 101.47 1973 103.51 Average 100.77 ,101.27 98.16 97.24 103.61 106.46 98.69 100.71 100.28 103.35 95.80 98.53 105.65 107.08 100.18 103.48 101.37 Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 616.16 S & P Compo (1200 p. m.) 69.70 Cumulative Index (11/27/74) 382.12 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No statement or expression of opInion or cny other motler herem contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the SOllellolion of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred 10 Or mentioned The moiler 1 presented merely for the converlence of the subSCriber While oNe believe the sources of our informatIOn 10 be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy Ihereof nor of the stotemenls mude herein Any action 10 be laken by Ihe subscriber should be bosed on hiS own inVestigation and Informotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, 05 (I corpoml1on, and 11s officers or I!mploye-es, moy now have, or may later lake, pos.hons or Ifodes In respect to any seUrlt.cs menlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such positIOn may be d,ffl!rent from any views now or hereoftl!r eypreued In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which .s registered With the SEC as on Investment OdVIS(H, may give adVice 10 Its Investment advlory and other customers Independen11y of clOy stalements mode ,n this or In any olher Inue Further information on any security mentIOned herein IS aVOIlable on request