Tabell’s Market Letter – August 02, 1974

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 02, 1974

Tabell's Market Letter - August 02, 1974
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y – – -L — – – — – – – -. . — TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – — – – !!eIaf. .Y'&y, .7akll 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF 71'1U;! 4,l1lrmry !//ott fi.C. MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE AUgust 2, 1974 -,,,,….I – -Tust seve-n sliortwe-eks'ago; -on TuIie-14 I we wrotT-a -ilter which mcludf'th-e'tole' lov.- -Tt-tab-ulated the performance of two groups of stocks, the so-called Vestal Virgins or growth favontes, and the Sex- less Spinsters, largely basic-industry, historically-cyclical companies. The table, which has been up- dated to show today's prices, shows the approximate price of the stocks in each group at five points in recent market history, the January 1973 high, October 1973 high, December 1973 low, April-May low, and Thursday' 5 close. The percentage change between points is also shown together with the average for each group and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Jan Oct Dec Apr-May …li.!Jlh High Change Low Change Low Change 8/1/74 Change DJlA 1067.20 997.59 – 6.5 783.56 -21.4 788.80 0.6 751.10 – 4.7 Avon Products 132 98 -25.7 58 -40.8 40 -31.0 29 -27.5 Purroughs 115 121 5.2 92 -23.9 96 4.3 90 – 6.3 Coca-Cola 145 145 – 115 -20.6 98 -14.7 84 -14.2 Disney 115 82 -28.6 41 -50.0 41 – 37 – 9.7 Eastman Kodak 145 135 – 6.9 108 -22.9 100 – 3'.8 86 -14,0 IBM 360 280 -22.2 235 -16.0 210 -10.6 202 – 3.8 Int'l Flavors/Fragrances 48 47 – 2.0 34 -27.6 32 – 5.8 30 – 6.3 Johnson & Johnson 132 125 – 5.3 100 -20.0 105 5.0 94 -10.4 McDonald's Corp 78 74 – 5.1 44 -40.5 50 13.6 38 -24.0 Polaroid 130 125 – 3.8 65 -52.0 53 -18.4 27 -49.0 Procter & Gamble 120 106 -11.6 89 -16.0 85 – 4.5 93 9,4 Sears, Roebuck & Co. 124 100 -19.3 78 -22.0 80 2.5 64 -20.0 Xerox 156 150 – 3.8 115 -23.3 106 – 7.8 94 -11.3 – . -Average — – – –9-9 – 21l–S– — – 5.5- '-14.4 Alcan Alumimum Ltd 26 40 53.8 36 -10.0 27 -25.0 29 7.4 Allied Chemical 28 48 71.4 43 -10.4 39 – 9.3 36 – 7.6 Alcoa 40 54 35.0 44 -18.5 43 – 2.2 46 6.9 Bethlehem Steel 30 36 20.0 27 -25.0 29 7.4 30 3.4 Int'l Paper 42 57 35.7 43 -24.5 42 – 2.4 46 9.5 Kennecott Copper 26 38 46 . I 31 -18 .4 31 – 35 12 . 9 Monsanto 55 74 34.5 43 -41.8 60 39.5 60 – Phelps Dodge 44 50 13.6 39 -22.0 35 -10.2 37 5.7 U. S. Steel 34 37 8.8 30 -18.9 40 33.3 45 12.5 Westvaco 28 40 42.8 27 -32.5 27 – 27- Weyerhaeuser 28 41 46.4 34 -17.0 40 17.6 34 -15.0 Average 37.1 -21.7 4.4 3.2 We pointed out In Tune that we thought the figures were Intereshng. In the first nine months of 1973, the Dow posted a 6.5 decline, while the cyclical Issues advanced 37, vs. a 9.9 average dechne for the growth stocks. The cyclica1s matched the performance of the Dow on the downside In the decline from the October hIgh to the December low, whereas the growth issues declined cons1derably more sharply. Likewise, on the move to the Apnl-May lows, the growth issues dropped another 51/2 while the cyclical issues advanced. It is in the last column that the major difference eX1sts between the table above and the earlier version of it published last June. When we published that letter, the Dow was at 844.81, some 90 points higher than it is today. At that point the growth stocks had, for the first time, been able to show superior per- formance over a short period. They were up almost twice as much from April-May lows as were the – – cyclical issues and.had'conslderably-bettered the-ris-e of the Dow-We'concluded the June 14-1ette'r-by saying, We think 1t is premature to conclude that the superior growth stock performance Wh1h charac- terized 1971 and 1972 and then disappeared abruptly in 1973, is about to burst out again in ltS old refulgence. Such has certainly not been the case, as the last column above shows. Of the 13 growth stocks, 12 are below their April-May lows and the average 14.4 decline IS considerably worse than the Dow declIne of 4.7. By contrast, only two of the cyclicals are down, and this group, on average, remains 3.2 above its prior low. We think, In sum, that the conclusions drawn in our June 14 letter are still valid. Dow-Jones Industrials (12'00 p.m.) 750.39 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (I200 p.m.) 78.57 DELAFIELD, HARVEY TABELL Cumulative Index (8/1/74) 447.43 AWT/jb No statement or expressIon of OP!nIOn or ony other moiler herem contCl!ned IS, or u to be deemed to be, directly or mdHectly, on offer or the sol!c!tatlon 01 on offer to buy or sell ony setunty referred to or menltoned The motler !s presenlcd merely for the convef'!enCE of the subscrIber Wh!le oNe bel!eve the sources of our mformot!on to be rel!Oble, we In no way represent or guorantee the occurocy thereof nor of the stotemenl mode herc!n Any oct!on to be token by the subKnber should be bosed on h!s own Investlgotlon and mformohon Janney Montgomery Scotl, Inc, os 0 corporot,on, ond !ts offIcers or employees. moy now hove, or may loler toke, pOSItIons or trodes In respcct to ony seturot!es mentIoned In th!s or any future Issue, ond such posItIon may be different from ony vIews now or hereafter expressed In thIs or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whIch IS regIstered WIth the SEC os on Investment adVIsor, moy glVc odvlce to !ts Investment odvlsory and other customers mdependently of any statements mode In thiS or !n any other Issue Further mformotlon on any securIty mentIoned herem !S ovalloble on request

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