Tabell’s Market Letter – April 13, 1973

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCk eXCHANGE April 13, 1973 We have been attempting in recent letters to show that the averages, over the past three years, have — -pElrformed- a-great dEla1-better thanth-eavera-gestock- An- examination-of-the-individua1-ts sues in the Dow– Jones Industrials shows an even more unusual situation. The average, since the May 1970 lows, has actually outperformed most of the stocks contained in it. Over the period May 26, 1970- January 11, 1973 the Dow rose from 631. 16 to 1051. 70 for a total rise of 420.54 points. The first column of the table below shows how many of the 420.54 pOints were contributed by mh company. The second column expresses the point-rise contributed by the stock as a percent of the total rise, and the third column accumulates those percent figures. Finally, the last three columns show the price of each stock on the two dates together with the percent change. Before discussing the implications of the table it is necessary to point out some of the statistical properties of the Dow. The method of computation causes higher-priced stocks to have a greater weight than lower-priced ones. Thus a 10 rise in duPont would cause a 10 .4-point rise in the Dow while 'a 10 rise in Anaconda would cause only a 1. 3-point rise. This property accounts for the interesting fact that General Foods, which was lower at the end of the period than at the beginning, actaully contributed two points to the rise in the averages. The table raises some interesting points. The average was up 66 over the period, but only ten ofthe thirty components managed to post a percentage rise better than this figure. The lesser weight given low- priced stocks is made apparent by the table. Allied Chemical, for example, has performed better than duPont but it contributed less than eight points to the rise in the averages while duPont contributed 48. Most graphically, however, the table demonstrates the narrowness of the advance. One-third of the entire rise in the Dow was due to the action of three stocks, one-half of it due to the action of five, almost two- thirds to seven issues and three-fourths to ten. Quite clearly the phenomenon of relatively narrow leader- —!;shipexists-,–within;!heaIJC!geitself. Points Rise . – 4' ,,- — -of – – Cum-'- — Price Stock Eastman Kodak QQDtrUll.ltsg 51. 35 Total Rise 12.2 lative 12.2 5/26/70 575/8 1/11/73 1473/4 Change 156 Dupont 48.00 11.4 23.6 1001/4 1841/2 84 Proctor and Gamble General Electric 42.45 41. 79 10.1 9.9 33.7 43.6 401/4 301/4 (A) 1143/4 73 5/8 185 143 Sears Roebuck Standard Oil California 39.88 25.43 9.5 53.1 513/8 1213/8 136 6.0 59.1 393/4 843/8 112 Exxon Westinghouse Electric 22.65 19.86 5.4 64.5 513/8 4.7 69.2 27 (A) 911/8 461/4 77 63 Chrysler General Motors Union Carbide United Aircraft Texaco American Brands Swift Allied Chemical International Harvester International Pa per American Telephone Alcoa Goodyear Bethlehem Steel General Foods Woolworth Owens Illinois U.S. Steel Johns Manville International Nickel Anaconda American Can 13.82 13.39 11. 89 9.62 8.83 8.76 8.26 7.91 7.83 7.69 6.55 5.48 5.27 4.13 2.24 2.14 1. 78 1. 71 1.64 1.35 .36 -1. 50 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 1. 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 (0.3) 72.5 75.7 78.5 80.8 82.9 85.0 87.0 88.9 90.8 92.6 94.2 95.6- – 96.8 97.8 98.3 78.8 99.2 99.6 100.0 100.2 100.3 100.0 19 5/8 59 1;2 29 1/2 27 241/8 295/8 223/4 16 1/4 283/8 333/4 431/8 50 211/2 22 1/4 333/8 (A) 26 1/2 383/4 303/4 263/4 333/4 223/8 35 43 7/8 83 50 3/8 437/8 395/8 45 371/4 30 1/8 417/8 361/8 545/8 59 5/8 303/4 29 1/2 291/2 301/4 417/8 333/4 295/8 361/8 23 323/8 124 39 71 63 64 52 64 85 48 7 26 19 43 32 – 12 14 8 10 11 ., 3 8 Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.)956. 73 S&P Comp.(1200 p.m.) 111.83 AWTrk ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No statement or expression of opinion or any OTher molter herein (onTomed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrectly, on offer or the sollCltoTlon of 07 offer 10 buy or sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the converlenCE of the subscrIber While He belleve the sourcbs of our hn'ldmb' han to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any actIon to be token by the su sen ber s. au e bosed on h.s own poslllons or trodes Invesllgotlon In respect to and mformatlon Janney Montgomery any seCUrities menhoned In thl5 or any Seoll, future Inc, as a lssue, cnd corporatIon, and Its offICers or such pos,t,on may be dIfferent employees, may from cny v,ews now now ohravhee,reoorJtmerayeJlopr,eersetodkhe,n, thl or any other lssue Janney Montgomery s.cotl, tnc , whICh l5 regIstered w,th the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIve adVICe to ,ts ,nvjstment a VIOryon 01 er customers Independently of cny statements mode ,,\ th.s or In ony other Issue Further Informa'lon on any securtty mentioned herein IS avcI able on request '