Tabell’s Market Letter – August 28, 1970

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 28, 1970

Tabell's Market Letter - August 28, 1970
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.. – ' . ! iJ.. f-… .. .,..,… ………,. …… .. … .Oil &TATE ROAD. rnINCc;TON, N.VI .UruU.y oe,.o CIIVI.,Off 9,',,1, 0.. p, .. e., .. Nrw ,0.1l, 'TQCOI l;.eUAHOIE 1U111. '''''.'C'''' II.H…,.11 ., .' t, – .Tn Memoriam August 28, 1970. ' Born Dcccrr.bcr 3, 1968 THE 1968-1970 BEAil. MARKET Dic.d MJY 26, 1970 Flnnl Rites August, 1970 R. I. P. The epitaph, we think, c..n finally be pronounced. The broad and convincing rally on of la!t wee;' a-.d ),.ondJ.Y of this, with g.l!ns holdwg In the I,tter part of this trc'!!i.,),h.-. f'xtor!.!cd -CC'()'C!'l 1n thr, Dc.\',' to 13S pomts rl,lil.t-.C MrlY 2(,th cr eln advollce of To an advance of thls Mngr.ltudc as an crdl1aT'l fully within a hC'.tr marJet is, In our OP1'llOn, totJ1!y to ignore all historical cxpcncnCE. Let 1..5 r.L.lmmNize the evicence. The lOTI';; meorket d'.cline could be described by L1 100- polnt-\.. lac trend wiilct, for IS months, hJ.d Lcen dc!'ccl1dlng the rate o( .G7 r-omts per doy on the Dow. Just lbout every Dow-Jones fIgure SInce December, 19GB hQd !olJcn ….merc within that channel. ThIs week, the upper 11mit of the dwnncJ, r,owat eround 738, '.'J3S decisl\,(..'ly penet!lltC'd. AL the same tii.1C, a nurr.ber of typlcn of boaoln;, cm!rgIng. The rat'lo of short interest to nYc! age dolly trQd- 10g volumC ;)s of August 14th clhr,bca to a fIgure of 2.08—a level thut has been with culminltlons E'VE'r Since the edrly 1930';.. Cash in the hcmds of muttlll fLHld; rof,C' in JL1ly to In astronomical 11. of assets with the funds having dizposcu of ovm 500 mUlion worth of stock in the June-July period. The reinvestment demand thu. crcatcc. cannot he ignored. The udvoTlcc, as we noted a of weeks ago, has lasted longer than any bear-mark.ct rally nincc the Spring of 1930. The p'.!rccntagc risc far vutstdppec. that of any such r(llly -in the entIre postwar PCI.iOJ.. In .ther words I 1n the- (ontext of forty years of fin.lnc1el expcrJcncc, we have ;.C'en no bear mmkct rally with the stlcngth and Igor dIsplayed over the P.lst thrce months. There lie, to be sure, caveats, il1d th'y will he otlly noted here. No market trend revcrsal thut VIC arc c……;!rc of hos ever tuken place with al1 technical indicators pointing with crytal c.1any in the airectlon. In the p'cscnt car-e a number of lu'';llllC Indlcutors wluch,in the past, heve major have not yet turned positIve, although it Viould not tbke much for then to do 0. 1hc Stand.a.d & Poor's SaO-Stock Index un!. other hroader inl1ces not yet ollo;-cd the Do\ in brcckmg out of thcJr d)\'nttcnd channel.; — v' Cl1though the Cl1rre;!t upG1dc ohJC'ctivc for the S& would indicatc that It could do so !.hortly. rclttlvely better -r\arkct pcrformuncc on the purt of the stable blue cl)lps rcprc- cntt'd hi' the DJIA Is u nortf'ul cnartctcllst!C of markets dt H.lS stage. Vic therefore, fer the lmg-tcrm. Lut we thin\';' it would be the hclCJht of folly ilt lIds polnt to succumb to overoptimism. It is one thillCJ to prOllounct! thc pJllcnt on the road to rccov('ry and quile unothcr to sUljgest he Is completely cured. It WtlS notcri h,;ore ju;.t t ….o .'C'cks ago that t1,c tccnillCill p1ttcrns of the great bulk of listed pr.!!;cnt no r('deem1n,) fCNurcs wnC'ltsC'evcr. hclS not oecuned In tl-.c (o,tnlght. VIC' continue to (cel, 1n other ….ord!., tli(lt the procv;s o( b.Jsc bu!ldlllf) 110 (JoIn') to r''-f'ulre a Cc.J of tfrllC, 'lI1d it to remind the fCr'def th.lt such il requiP'!' vn-ll Uf)\\'i-'Js. Only 1 nworiry of J;uJI','Jdllul (;'lll, .11 thc mOIJ'cnt, bc to h.J./,,) citced Lito k,n!) tpfra Ui'liC';,CIS. 1ht. ;.('n;lhc C(lllff.-, ….. c think, Is not to g('t cel,Jed tl.-ny bi' tIle CUi'hLlr!'1 of tIll' CH1','ni. . but to the '-,lr'-IlQtli d cl1rn!1.Jtc t1l0'–c 1.!.uc!. .. – .)11 too prcc,cnt, \C' 11 c'/cry — \'/nCH' the- IflInwdlltc cipJtcJl orC! IIIcdloCIC. If cur the;I!. J; (.(lITCct, tlll' rhort-term clccltnc cliJo\'dflCJ for clccufOlul.;lt1on o( mOle Cv('Irduly .1tuLllcd 1!;5l1c''; wJII, tncvltduly, …. ('Iccur i)(w-)onco Ind. (1100.10.) 7GI.S7 se.!' (1100 a.m.) 61.2G , /I.\VTmn … ANTIIONY \'I. l,',ml.L PI.I.AfIf.LD, flflRVI\', Ti,OEI.L , 1 I j. ! I …..

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