Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1964

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 17, 1964

Tabell's Market Letter - April 17, 1964
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W—-d–l-s–tloncn–&—C–o–. Melli/leIs Sell' Yo)'l. Stock Echa11ye NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES .' PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO toOfFICES COAST COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 17, 1964 .. Looking at th.e in' a broad, long term sense, we find little reason to change the op1OlOn expressed 10 thiS letter on several occasions. We believe the market reached a ma- jor top in the period between 1956 and 1961, and a major bottom in the period between 1960 1962, and is now in a broad pattern that will result in much higher levels 10 the latter part of the 1960's. The price action of the averages does not appear to conform to this pattern. This is because all stocks do not reach their highs or lows on the same day. Actually, if the individual action of each of the 30 stocks in the DJ Industrial average is broken down and the time element reconciled, the pattern is quite different from that shown in the overall average. The table below shows the price action of each of the 30 stocks in the DJ Industrial average from 1956 to date. The-figures in parentheses indicate-the year in which the high or low was reached. 1956-61 1960-62 1963-64 0/0 4/17/64 High Low Decline High Advance Clos.e Allied Chemical 66 ('61) 35 ('62) 47 58 65 55 Alum. Co.Amer. 133 ('56) 45 ('60) 66 82 82 82 American Can 52 ('58) 31 ('60) 41 47 51 43 Amer. Tel & Tel 139 ('61) 99 ('60) 29 50 143 Amer. Tobacco 55 ('61) 26 ('60) 53 38 36 Anaconda Co Bethlehem Steel 87 ('56) 59 ('59) 36 ('62) 28 ('62) 58 53 50 43 42 37 Chrysler Du Pont Eastman Kodak General Electric 25 a 249 ('59) 134 ('60) 99 ('59) 19 ('60) 160 ('60) 85 ('62) 55 ('62) 62 400 68 55 0 65 49 262 128 86 General Foods 107 ('61) 58 ('60) 58 90 General Motors 59 ('59) 40 ('60) 127 Goodyear Intern'l Harvester Intern'l Nickel Intern'l Paper Johns Manville Owens Ill. Glass Procter & Gamble Sears Roebuck Stand. Oil of Calif. Stand. Oil of N. J. Swift & Co. Texaco 51 ('59) 57 ('59) (fi)86 ('61) 48 ('56) 75 1 ' ('5 8 a 59 ('61) 25 ('62) B39 ('60f\\ I 3 v- . if) , 52 ( 48 64 '6'2) '60) 45 34 59 ('60) 38 40 ('60) 35 38 ('60) 26 b 44 50 45 ('60) 24 – 47 72 36 63 100 87 110 69 87 50 77 88 84 56 61 56 30 86 72 129 92 71 Union Carbide 150 ('59) 85 ('62) 43 130 53 United Aircraft 80 ('59) 33 ('60) 59 54 63 U. S. Steel 108 ('59) 38 ('62) 65 61 60 Westinghouse Elec. 65 ('60) 25 ('62) 62 42 68 Woolworth 93 ('61) 55 ('62) 41 83 51 Dow-Jones Average 911 a – Made high in 1955. 504 -45'70 b-Made low in 1957. 863 ll7 Sold above 1956-1961. 82 43 7J 77 34 59 98 83 109 62 87 46 78 128 48 56 35 85 827 It will be noted from the above that if all 30 stocks reached their 1956-61 highs on the same day, the high would have been 911 instead of 741. Subsequently, each of the 30 stocks declined sharply to reach-a low some time in the period between 1960 and 1962. The average decline was 450/0. 16 of the 30 stocks did not sell below their 1960 lows in 1962. If all stocks reached their 1960-62 low on the same day, the low would have been 504 instead of 525. Th advance since 1962 has been roughly 60 in terms of the average. If all of the 30 stocks reached their 1963-64 highs on the same date, the high would have been 864 instead of 830. Only 9 of the 30 stocks have reached new highs above the 1956-61 highs. The recent highs of 21 of the 30 are lower than the highs reached three to eight years ago. At a rough estimate 800/0 of all the common stocks listed on the NYSE are still below the 1956-61 highs. This leads to the thought that the market, in a very broad sence, is in a major reaccu mulation period between the 911 and 504 extreme s. The ultimate result will be an upside breakout, but probablya longer.period of consolidation is necessary before this occurs. Dow-Jones Ind. 827.33 Dow-Jones Rails 197.07 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter \s not. and under no circumstnnces IS to he construed as nn offer to bell 01 U sohcltntlnn to bu)' nny 1derr ctIln hel em. The In(m mntlOn contained herein IS nol Juarant.ccd as to accuracy or cOnllllctcnc&s lind the f1ll lh('l(,J( I.. not. nnd Ilnd('l no 1\1 to bE' eunbtl lied ab, n tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc. All C'IIllreSblOnS of OPllllOlI arc subJE'Ct to chnnlte wlth,,t ntlct' Wnl-;ton & Co, IIC, and DITI('N. DUectors, Stockholders anti Employees tbereof, purchase, seJl and may hnvc all lntere'lt 11\ tbe SeCUrities mentume,) bClcln ThiS marhet letter II JIItenllcd Hild prftlcntca mE'rely n!J II J!cncraJ inrormnl commentary on day to doy market news aud not as a complete analYbh A.!thtlOoal infO! matloll \\ Ith I CII-Cct to .my CClIllhe. I cferl cd to hel em will furnl'lhed uPon requesL \ \ ' .301

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