Viewing Month: November 1956

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1956

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 02, 1956

Tabell's Market Letter - November 02, 1956
View Text Version (OCR)

.' . ! NEW YORK Walston &Co. Inc. Members New YOk Stock Exchange PHILADELPHIA' LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE ISw,h.dd) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER . November 2, 1956 The unexpected developments in the Middle East brought about a quick testing of the October 1st lows. After reaching a new intra-day high for the month on Monday at 494.11, on the Dow-Jones Industrials, the news announcement before the close of the market brought about a sharp decline to a closing level of 486.94 and the average declined further to reach a low of 476.83 on 1I1ednesday. This was followed by a quick recovery that brought the industrials back to an intra-day high of 493.40 on Friday. Nerv.ousness .relatilTeto the pr.ofit- taking and a closing price level of 490.47. October 1st Low October High October 31st Low Industrials Ralls 65-Stock 463.83 149.81 164.09 494.11 163.49 174.35 476.83 155.17 168.72 As can be seen from the above, the in all three averages held well above the October 1st lows and, at Friday's highs were again close to the October highs. An upside penetration on the industrials to 495 would indicate another attempt to push through the heavy over- head supply at 500-525 that halted the advance in April and again in August. This may be a difficult job to accomplish, but ability to pene- trate this resistance would indicate a possible new high at around 550. The rail pattern is not quite clear, but ability of the 65-Stock average (combined industrials, rails and utilities) to reach 175 would indicate a testing of the overhead supply at 180-185 followed by 203 if the supply is penetrated. It is interesting to note that my technical indicator, a purely mechanical device, Israili invasion; The pr a buy at.the evious signal was calos e on Monday afterthe late . The important pOints to watch on the downside in case of further unfavorable news developments are, of course,the October 1st lows. It is probable, however, that my technical indicator would give a signal before that level is reached. A decisive penetration of the October 1st lows would indicate a further decline to 440-420 in the Dow-Jones . Industrials and to 147 in the 65-Stock Average and to 140-137 in the Rails. The reason for the direction of the next Sixty-point move will undoubtedly turn on the news from Europe and the Middle East. Vlhat will happen there is, of course, impossible to predict. The other news developments appear to be on the favorable side. BUSiness should be good for the balance of 1956 and into the first quarter of 1957. Year-end extra diVidends will be large. As far as the Election is concerned, four years ago I went all out and predicted that Eisenhower would win by a landslide greater than anything since 1936. This was distinctly a minority viewpoint as far as most analysts were concerned. This year I swing along with the majority. I believe Eisenhower is certain to be elected. A month 0- JKQI,felt ,thi . the present circumstances 3 the Eisenhower Victory may possibly be again of landslide proportions. Any advance, if it occurs, will be selective. The best acting groups include steels, shipping and shipbuilding, machinery, natural gas, cement, coal, sugar, aircraft, auto eqUipment, 'drugs, railroad equipment and selected rails. In the event of a decline, these groups should also show above average action. EDMUND VI. TABELL i'lJ'. LSTON & CO. INC. i, \ Thl' market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to he construed as, an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy any secuf1hes referred to herem The mformatlon contained herem istfot Rull,ranteed us to accuracy or completeness and the iurmshmR thereof IS llot, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed DS, a representation loy W llslon & Co Inc All 1'lI,rC''lons of opmIOn arc subJect to change WIthout notIce & Co, Inc, or any Officer, Dlrcewl or StockholoJer thereof, may lntcrcst sC(urltlCs mentlOneoJ herein ThIS market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a gcneral, mformal Lommcnt..ary on day to day market Ilc…. s and not as n complcte analySIS AdditIonal informatIOn With respect to nny BecuntlCs referred to herem will be furnished upon request. WN 301 . .. . ….. t

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1956

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 09, 1956

Tabell's Market Letter - November 09, 1956
View Text Version (OCR)

-W—a–l–s-tInocn.–&—-C-o. Members New YOk Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Sw,',laod) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER November 9., 1956 The Eisenhower rally reached a Wednesday high of 500.52 before the heavy overhead supply in the 500-525 area and a continuance of either bad or uncertain news from abroad halted the advance. The week's low was reached on Thursday at 483.21. This low point was above the October 31st low of 476.83, which in turn was above the 463.83 low of October Ist.Also, Monday's high of 500.52 was above the mid-October high of 493.01. Thus despite the ominous foreign developments, the industrial average has in a slow uptrend channel since the October,lst lows. This also applies to – the rail-average, the average . From a purely technical pOint of view, the market has acted very well in the face of nervous tensions. As far as the crisis in Europe and the Middle East is concerned it is impossible to even attempt to guess what is going to happen over the near term. To properly assess foreign developments, it is necessary to look at the broad picture rather than at day-to-day developments. The first step in any program of positive thinking is to rule out the ICssibility of a full-scale atomic war, for if any such war were to take place,what might happen to the stock market would be of very little consequence. If we are to rule out this possibility we are faced only with a continuance of the present situation — of wars and rumors of wars.It is the height of futility to try to guess what will happen next, just as it would be futile to try to guess more than two or three moves ahead in a master chess game. In a broader sense, however, what does appear likely is a renewal of the cold-war, defense-spending psychology. What does this psychology mean to the stock market Very simplY,it underscores the attractiveness of common stocks as investment media, as any full-scale renewal of defense spending would probably mean continued inflationary pressures. This is the main point which must be kept in mind, through any momentary ups and downs which may take place due to sudden . -news t-nervQus 'reac t-ions-1Yonews-event s are quite often wrong as witness the drastic liquidation which occurred on the initial announcement of the Korean inva0ion in 1950. Basically, the nervousness due to the foreign situation does nothing more than reinforce the theory so often promulgated by this letter – that the next year will see a highly selective, sideways market with wide advances and declines, after which a resumption of the major, long term uptrend will take place. Owning the right stocks will continue to be of much greater impor- tance than the gyrations of the general market averages. This is 'especially true in times like these when news developments can alter the course of individual industries and companies. The aircraft manufacturing companies engaged in the guided missile and jet program appear to have favorable prospects both from a fundamental and technical viewpoint. Two of these companies, Glenn L. Martin (41 1/4) and General Dynamics (51 1/8) are in my recommended list. The steel group continues to show excellent relative strength. U.S. Steel (70) and two specialty steel issues, Allegheny Ludlum (57 and Crucible Steel (60 3/4) are part of our recommended list. The metal group also should react favorably to a renewal of in- flationary pressures. Magma Copper (95 1/4) is on our recommended list for capital appreciation. Kennecott Copper (130 3/8) combines a high yield with prospects of substantial long term price appreciation. International-Nickel (104) also American, South American and Canadian oils should also benefit from possible fur- ther curtailment of Middle East oil deli'pries. Amerada cor). (101 5/8), Calgary & Edmonton (26 7/8) ,- Internationc..J. Petroleum (39 V2, Richfield Oil (69 3/4) and Sunray Mid-Continent (26) are all on my recommended list. Continued neEVOUS market action can result in whipsawing swings in both directions. Price weakness should be used to add to holdings in the issues listed above and other issues in our recommended list. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. k I r is not anti unJer no IS to he construed as, an oITer to sell or a sohcitntlon to buy any secuntIes referred to herein The Information not as to .tccuracy or completeness and the !Ilrmbhlng thC1WOO', 1; not& .Cd ulnder no b WIt & Co Inc All C'I(preS!LOns of opmIOn nrc subJect to change v,lthout noble aston 0, nc., or any Icer, k 31the seeuntles mentIoned herem ThIS market letter IS mtendcd and presented mereh as a general, mform.!.l commentnry on dalo to day m.Jr news and not as a completc analysIs AddItIOnal mformatlOn wIth rcspect to any seculltlCs refcrred to hercm \\111 be f\lrmshed upon request \VN 3 ' . i \ I

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 16, 1956

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 16, 1956

Tabell's Market Letter - November 16, 1956
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. Inc. -..;,.-….;;.– Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE ISw,h.dd) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRI …. ATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET lEnER November 16; 1956 The market turned reactionary after reaching a high of 490.71 on We nesday. The week's low was reached on Friday at 478.15. This was still above the October 31st low of 476.83 before the current Middle East crisis appeared on'the horizon. The market has now held for six weeks in a broad trading area bounded by roughly 500 and 464. A decline below 476 would probably indicate a return to the 470-460 support area, where the market has met support on three occasions since the start of the year. Ability to hold above this level would indicate another attempt to penetrate the heav overl'lead suppl-y at 500-525 with the pro'babB.ity-of-a-suc cessful penetration to atleast a modest new high. On the unfavorable side, my technical indicator registered a sell signal on Wednesday, thus reversing the buy signal given a little more tha two week's ago. This could be a whipsaw signal that often occurs in mar kets influenced by uncertainty and by news developments. Although the sign should not be ignored,it should be viewed in the context of the cross- currents effecting the market. It is possible that another buy signal could be given in the next week or two. Of much greater importance than the action of the averages,(which could remain in a wide trading area for a year longer) is the action of individual issues. Here relative strength is an excellent indication of the trend. By relative strength we mean the ability of a stock to act better than the market. Once this action appears it is liable to continue for quite some time. As an example, U.S. Steel was selling at 62-63 in mid-August when the industrial average was 515. A month and a half later it was selling at 64,despite the fact that the average had dropped over fifty points to 464. Now it is selling at 170 with the average still thirty pOints belol1 the mid-August level. Of the 50 or more stocks on our recommended list, I have tried to select a small number that combine excellent relative strength together wi th a much higher longer term potent.ial and. near term support. -The – -'- following appear to be the most interesting. CRUCIBLE STEEL (63) combines excellent relative strength with a very strong technical pattern in one of the best acting groups – the steels. The stock has an initial objective of over 80 with a long term potential of 140-150 from a technical viewpoint. Support is at the 60-55 area. EAGLE PICHER (44 3/4) should earn close to 5.50 in 1956, so it certainly does not appear overpriced. Initial objective is 53-55 and the long term objective is 80-85. Support at 40. GENERAL DYNAMICS (51 7/8) has. an initial 70 objective and a long term technical potential of 90, with support at 47-45 combined with good rela- tive strength. GENERAL RAILWAY SIGNAL (29 3/4) still has a 50 upside potential and support at 29-27. INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM (42 5/8) has just penetrated the wiJe 33-40 'area and has a 67 upside potential over the long term. Support now at 40-38. MARTIN, GLENN L. (41 1/2) has broken out of the 31-40 'area in which it has held since early 1956. Potential is an initial 55-60 followed by a long term 80. TIMKEN ROLLER BEARING (89 3/4) has shown excellent relative strength and has a long term objective of over twice the current level. Support should be encouhtered in the area, according to-our technical'indications.- U.S. LINES (31 1/2) has an initial objective of 60 followed by a long term 90 and support at 30-27. U.S.STEEL (71 1/8) has no nearer term indication, but an eventual 90-97 pro'jection. Support level is 65-63. Other issues with favorable relative strength include American Cyanamid (72 1/4), International Nickel (102), National Distillers (26 1/8), Northern Natural Gas (49 7/8), Pittston Company (69), Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line (94 1/4) and Tennessee Corp. (56 1/4) EDMUND vi. TABELL Thlll market letter 111 not, and under no Clrcumstnnce'O g to be cuntalned herein IS IloL to nccurucy or completeness hl!'.pn o.fi'hLnr tht e r to !lj to bu)r'a''hrtc'c'!frft.lCs referred to herem The information orf RS 'nu&t . wd 'Co under Inc no or Circumstances to be construed as, a representatlOn uny Offlcer Director or Stockholder thereof. may hy & Co, Inc All of ar.rubJec\tot as; g-encral, (.ommcntary on day to nnen1vole.s an ll dnd lntoerteasst 1n11ctohmepsleectueTaintalelYs SmISentlAddn tlOna mIn ,o r ma, mar IOn e WI ' h r '…,pect to any SCCUlltlCS referred to herem will be (urmshed upon requesL

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 23, 1956

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 23, 1956

Tabell's Market Letter - November 23, 1956 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - November 23, 1956 page 2
View Text Version (OCR)

Ir; -. NEW YORK Walston &Co. – – – – – – – – I n c . – – Members New York Stock Exchange PHILADELPHIA' LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Sw,h.d I OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LmER November 23, 1956 As noted in last-week's letter, the breaking of the October low of 476.83 on the Dow-Jones Industrials indicated a return to 470– 460 support level. The week's low on Wednesdaywas466.16. The Indus- trial average is now near the strong support that has held on two past occasions. The May low was 463.85 and the October 1st low was Whether these two lows will again hold is, of course, a matter of con- jecture. The last signal given on my technical indicator was a sell signal on Wednesday, November 14th at 482.36. If this signal were rever- penetration occurs,it-would-be development. If the support level is broken, a decline to the 440-420 ' level would be indicated. There is a great deal of bearishness about, but I see no reason to change the prediction I made almost a year ago of market action for 1956. I expected a highly serective 1951-53-type of market ranging from a high of 520 to a low of 440-420 in the Dow-Jones Industrial average. The high so far this year was about 524 reached in April and August. The low was 458.21 reached in It is, of course, possible that the support level around the 460 level wilT hold. The acton of the market since mid-1955 has been very similar to that of 1951-1953. At that t7ime the market held in roughly an 18 trading range for about thirty-two months. So far, the present market has held since July 1955 between 524 and 433.19 (the Eisenhower heart attack low of October, 1955). This also has been roughly an 18 trading range, but for only months. If we applied the same time element that applied in 1951-1953, this trading range could continue for another fifteen or until February, 1958. Just as in 1951-1953, there will be extreme selectivity with individual issues-advancing while others are declining or consolidating. Ju1L8.S in ,951-)953, thE!re n ,'. issues on price weakness to an upside breakout of the long con- solidation period of 1955-1957. Below is my recommended list together with support levels. As several new issues have been added to the list recently, it seems advisable to eliminate a few issues that have shown below average action. The following replacements are suggested Sell C'EII'IRA.l XT'd buy either CRUCIBLE STEEL or WESTERN PAC IF IC Sell KAISER ALUMINUM and. buy EAGLE PICHER. Sell MONSANTO CHEMICAL and buy AMERICAN CYANAMID. Sell SCOTT PAPER and buy TIMKEN ROLLER BEARING. Sell WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE and buy GENERAL RAILWAY SIGNAL. I am also eliminating Alleghany Corp. from the list. The amended list follows – — – Present — – Price Price Recom. Yield – Advice Allegheny Ludlum Amerada Petroleum American Cyanamid Bell & Howell Bristol Myers Calgary & Edmonton Carborundum Corp. 56 112 72 44 37 26 37 16 103 67 42 37-35 16 42-40 3.6 BUYfHold.Support 54-52. 1.8 105-95. 4.2 at-65. 2.3 .o4. 3 1,. Buy–Hold .Support BuyHold.Support 2524. 5.4 Buy-Hold.Support 37-35. -. ThIS market letter 15 lIot, and under 110 CIrcumstances IS to be construed as, an OffCl to sell or a soliCitatIOn to IJU)' .W)' secuTities I dcrrcd to herem The information contained herem 1'1 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness Ilnd the thl'lcr IS not, and under 110 Clrcum,tanees IS to be construed ru., a representatIOn hy Walston & Co. Inc All cpresSlOn!; of OPllllon are subJcct to changc 'Ithout notice Walston & Co, lnt', or allY Officer DllectOi or Stockholder thercor, rna) hn\c an Interest III the IIccUrlhes mcntlOned herein ThiS mllrket letter Intended ,\nrl mcre!' ns .1 )!cneral. mfornloli comrncnt,lTY on day to OilY malket ne…. s and not as n complete ana!sls AdditIOnal Information …..Ith respect to any seClilltlCS I cferred tu herem Will be Iurtllshed upon request. W'N 301 -2- Present Price Carrier Corp. 51 Chicago Corp. 25 Columbian Carbon 45 Crucible Steel 67 Eagle Picher 44 Eastern Airlines 47 — 50'— Food Machinery 62 General Dynamics(new) 55 General Electric 59 General Rwy Signal 30 Gulf Oil 105 Hewitt-Robins 34 International Nickel 97 Intern'l Petroleum 46 Johns Manville 47 Joy Mfg 65 Kansas City South. 79 Kennecott Copper 130 Magma Copper 92 Martin,Glenn L. 41 Masonite 32 Minerals & Chemicals 28 National Distillers 26 North.Natural Gas 49 Northern Pacific 38 Pacific Petroleums 16 -Pan-AmerIDT3d Air – Panhandle East Pipe. 92 Penn-Dixie Cement 39 Pittston Co. 69 Rayonier 30 Richfield Oil 69 Royal McBee 30 Sperry Rand 23 Sunray Mid-Continent 27 Sylvania Electric 48 Tennessee Corp. 57 Timken Roller Bear. 90 United Airlines u. S. Steel 40 70 Western Pacific 62 Yale & Towne 30 Price Recom. Yield Advice 60-58 ' 4.7 24 4.0 50 5.3 60-58 4.5 22 5.0 47 2.1 2.0'-'- 51 3.2 50-48 3.6 56 3.4 19 4.3 107 2.4 25 5.9 90 3.9 34 2.9 50 4.5 4.6 85-83 130 5.1 6.-9 75 40 4e 32-30 24 48–47 40-39 11 3.9 5.3 0.7 3.8 5.3 4.-7 –4.7- 92 39-37 45 40–38 75-74 31 25-24 25 49 50 90 50 65 73 18 3.3 2.6 1.7 4.7 5.1 4.7 3.5 4.4 4.2 3.5 1.1 3.8 3.7 4.8 5.0 49-46. 23-22. Buy-Hold.Support 45-44. 4340. BuyHold.Support 47-44. -,BuYHoldSupport4643-. '- ,-, Buy-Hold.Support 60-55. Buy-Hold.Support Buy-Bold.Support Buy-Hold.Support Buy-Hold.Support 97-94. Buy-Hold.Support 33-32. BuyHold.Support 44-42. BuyHold.Support 78-r4. BuyHold.Support 4037. 3432. BuyHold.Support 2725. Buy-Hold.Support 2524. Buy-Hold.Support 46-45. Buy-Hold.Support 36-33. BuyHold.Support 1514. '3.-715. – , Buy-Hold.Support 8885. Buy-Hold.Support 38-35. BuyHold.Support 60-55. BuyHold.Support 30. BuyHold.Support 6864. BuyHold.Support 2927. 2221. 2524. BuyHold.Support 4745. BuyHold.Support 5550. Buy-Hold.Support 3735. BuyHold.Support 6966. BuyHold.Support 60-55. Buy-Hold.Support 28. EDMUND VI. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. ..;-

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 30, 1956

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 30, 1956

Tabell's Market Letter - November 30, 1956
View Text Version (OCR)

NEW YORK Walston t,.Co. – – – – I n c . – M embeTS New YOk Stock Exchange PHILADELPHIA' LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO BASLE (Sw;hld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET lEnER November 30,1956 Friday's rapid rebound from the Thursday intra-day low of 460.41 to an intra-day high of 474.59 was most impressive and, if it is carried thro will again underscore the E'gl'( '-'c2.r,; e of the important demand area around 4 in the Dow-Jones Industrials. Thursday'marked the fourth time this year th this area has been an important support area. The first such occurrence wa in January when a low of 45S.21 was reached. A low of 463.S5 was reached i May and a low of 463.83 in nctober. It is,of course, possible that this 10 may decisively be penetrated on the downside, in which case a return to th 440-420 area, as has been mentioned before in this letter, would be indi- cated. It appears, however, that for the time being this quadruple bottom' will hold. ' 'TO — ' The action mentioned above is very much in line with the forecast made by this letter at the end of 1955, at which time it was stated that probable 1956 action would call for the market to hold in a narrow trading range. This is exactly what has taken place. And indeed, at Thursday's low the market,' as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial average, was at just about the same level it had been at in January. It is interesting to note therefore, what stocks have consistently out-performed a lackluster stock market through all of 1956. Out of the entire list of 1300 stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange; only 36 have been in a continued uptrend based on their prices at each consecutive market bottom. This list of elite issues is set out below. The criteria used in compiling this list were (1) At its May low the stock was 10 above the January-February low, (2) At its October low the stock was 10 above its May low and, (3) at Thursday's low it was not lower than its October low. The 36 issues listed below are the only issues listed on the New York Stock Exchange that meet this criterion. Issues marked with an () were recommended by this letter in January. Issues marked v.ith an () are currently recommended by this letter. Jan.Feb. May 28th Stock Low Low legheny Lu(llum 30 35 1/8–,., Amer.European Sec. 35 3/8 Amer.Mach & Fdy 24 1/8 40 26 5/8 Amer.Shipbuilding 56 66 1/4 Boeing Airplane 34 1/2 Caterpillar Tractor 55 1/2 38 3/4 70 ll- Chicago Pneu.Tool Curtiss-Wright 44 1/2 26 3/4 55 1/4 30 5/8 26 1/4 30 Dresser Ind. 49 5/8 63 1/2 East.Stain.Steel Gardner Denver 29 1/8 23 33 1/8 27 1/2 Garrett Corp. 38 43 7/8 General Cable 24 5/8 28 1/4 Gen'l Rwy Signal 20 1/2 Halliburton Oil Well 58 1/2 25 5/8 71 Island Creek Coal 33 1/8 40 1/2 Jaeger Machine 15 3/4 20 1/4 Joy Mfg. Link Belt LukensSteel –Mack Truck McGraw Elec. McGraw Hill Natl Cylinder Gas 35 1/8 47 1/2 42 26 1/4 47 23 3/4 20 45 1/2 62 723/4 31 61 1/2 29 1/8 24 3/4 National Supply Pittston Co. Simonds Saw Square D Sunbeam 47 3/4 36 51,8 55 11,2 17 1/8 32 63 I/,4 45 5/8 64 20 3/8 1/4 Timken Roll.Bear. Trane Co. u.S.Freight .S.Lines 62 1/4 29 5/8 18 October Low 48' VIr ' 45 31 5/8 74 1/2 50 5/8 84 64 36 3/8 35 3/8 82 41 5/8 31 49 32 28 1/4 81 1/4 44 5/8 23 55 1/4 68 1/4 -84 1/4 32 27 1/4 B 3/8 44 1/4 3/8 2 Nov. 29th Low ;O5lj'l/-S45 36 5/8 85 55 3/4 88 69 1/2 45 3/4 41 3/4 89 3/4 43 1/2 37 3/4 49 5/8 39 29 3/4 84 3/4 50 5/8 23 1/4 62 1/2 70 1/2 143 1/8 3370 53;/S8 82 1/4 63 79 27 1/4 46 1/4 2 h, -I I I Ullon Ir ii. ii . 'lAd Ii

Download PDF