Viewing Year: 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 07, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 07, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - November 07, 1955 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - November 07, 1955 page 2
View Text Version (OCR)

', 11onday,. November 7, 1955 ALL WmES DUE TO THE FACT THAT MR. EDMUND W. TABELL IS OU'l' OF TOWN, THERE WILL BE NO BLUE MARKET LETTER ISSUED THIS WEEK. FOR MR. TECHNICAL f1ARKET OPINION SEE TODAY'S EDITION OF THE WALSTON LETTER. Anthony W. Tabell, N.X. HovelIlber 7.1955 !abell's Technical Market Opinion After a period ot Sidewise action. the market moved sharply ab.ead this week reaching an intra-day I11gh of 468.70 In the Dow-Jones Industr1al Average and 152.95 1n the rallo. As prevlouol noted, this strength could continue through the rest of November \tUh the objective being somewhere 1n the 465-475 zone. Toward the end ot the month. cross-currents .' cauaeli by tax-losa aell1ns could oome into the market caUSing some Irregularity-. Until there 16 8 testing of the recent there should be no change in basic investment policies 8S outlined 1n recent letters and current strength should be used to sw1tch out Of volatlle, unfavorabl1 situated holdings. . ./ '… , T , ,' , \

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - November 11, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

— Walston &eo. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw,h.d) OFFICES COAST TO C'JAST CONNECHC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 11, 1955 Last week, both the industrial and rail averages reached the highest territory since the Eisenhower break. The industrials, at 478.70, were with- in shooting distance of the 489.94 high of September and the rails, while showing less favorable action, were also not too far away from the 165.00 high at last week's peak of 160.19. The strength of the past six days brings up the possibility that the market may have reached its low in October at 433.19 and 144.07. This would imply that the uptrend from October, 1953 is still intact and that the almost 12 decline of September-October was-an term,de- , cline in a yet to be completed bull market. There is something to be said in favor of this contention from both a technical and fundamental viewpoint. At 433, the industrials had practically reached the 430-420 area mentioned in this letter since late Summer as the initial support level. Certainly, business news and earnings and dividends are excellent and the continuance of these favorable trends at anywhere near the present rate could support a higher stock market level, particularly if investor confidence remains high. It is investor confidence that may become the deciding factor in whether the bull market will continue on to new heights or whether a downtrend carrying to new lows has already started. Recent strength seem- ingly indicates that the confidence factor has improved, but it is much too soon to be certain. It appears doubtful that enough time has elapsed to build up a new base for a sizeable extension of the advance. Our technical work a few weeks ago indicated a rise to the 465-475 area with an outside possibility of 480-482. These objectives have been about reached and a testing of the 463-450 support level may be the next move after a mild extension of the present rise. This may be brought about by the coming year-end tax loss selling. The recent rise in the averages has been spearheaded by a small number of issues like Standard Oil of New Jersey, duP,ont- and -Qeneral-MGtDI's anG–there-a-re–sti'B.-a- large-number''of- issues that are selling 10 or more below the 1955 highs. Also, while improving slightly recently, the internal action of the market is not very impressive. In the main, the breadth-of-the-market graphs of the 10-week and 25-week advances and declines, volume and new highs and ne lows constructed by Market Action,Inc., remain on the unfavorable side for the longer term. Also, some of my technical graphs indicate lower levels on some individual issues and that other issues have potentially vulnerable patterns. All in all, a cautious attitude is still indicated and I would continue the policy recommended before the September break of taking profits in long term trading accounts on strength. Over the past four months, the industrial average has built up a large congestion area in the broad 489-433 range. A breakout of this range could be very important marketwise and until the direction of the penetration is clearer than it is today, a cautious attitude and the building up of some cash reserves appears to be a wise precaution. Of course, as this letter has been repeating for years, the action of any average is a very poor indicator of the action of individual stocks. Over the next several months, I can easily visualize a downward move in the averages with some individual stocks advancing. lith this possibility in mind, I advise the following policy under present market conditions. (1) Definite elimination from all accounts of marginalyspeculative issues that are of steep price rises. Would also eli- minate on strength, better-grade issues that appear to have temporarily advanced too rapidly and are selling above normal price/earnings ratios and yields. It is from these two groups that a cash reserve should be built. (2) Continue to hold and add to holdings in defensive issues that are still selling at reasonable price-earnings ratios and still offer good yields. Issues of this type could advance ,while the averages are declining. (3) Continue to hold and add to holdings on minor weakness issues that are slowly bettering their quality and are still selling on a reasonable basis. Our recommended list contains quite a few issues like Allegheny Ludlum, American Potash, Dresser Ind., Eagle Picher,Joy Mfg., and Simmons Co. that have reached new high territory since the September market break. EDMUND W.TABELL ,I

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - November 15, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston 5- Co. MEMBERS NEW 'fORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw,herl.,d) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM EDMUND W. TABELL INSTITUTIONAL LETTER November 15, 1955 In my letter of late October I expressed the opinion that the market was showing improving technical action and, with the issuance of favorable third-quarter earnings and–dividends, could show advancing tendencies into November with the Dow-Jones industrial averages reaching possibly the 475-480 level. The advance has occurred and has carried semewhat further than I anticipated. The industrials have reached an intra-day high of 490.35 as compared with the September high of 489.94 and have closed the opening gap of September 23rd. The rail average has also advanced sharply to 163.20, as compared to the 165.00 reached in December. I would be inclined to believe that the market has advanced about far enough for the time being. The rise in the averages has been brought about mainly by a relatively few stocks in the averages such as duPont, General Motors and Standard Oil of New Jersey in the industrials and Union Pacific in the rails. Admittedly, these stocks are of prime quality, but their influence on the averages has been disproportionate. A large number of stocks are still selling considerably below their respective 1955 highs. Breadth-of-the-rnarket action continues relatively unfavorable. The number of weekly highs is illustrative and shows how selective the market has been and how deceptive the averages can become if used as a broad barometer. The following figures are from Market Action, Inc. The figures used are the largest number of weekly highs reached during the month and the highest price the industrial ayerage has reached monthly. Dow-Jones Weekly I Month Industrials Highs April 432.76 280 July 471.15 225 September 489.94 187 November 478.70 68 The November figures, of course, were for last week.Other breadth-of-the- market data, such as upSide-and downside volume and advances and declines – on both ten-week and twenty-five week moving averages also continue able from a longer term point of view. These indicators could reverse them- selves, of course, but until they do, a continued cautious attitude is ad- visable. These same indicators performed just about as they are doing now in 1946. In May, 1946, the industrials reached a new high of 213 as with the February high of 207 at the same time that the breadth-of- the-market indices were reaching new lows. If similar action were to occur now, it would be an unfavorable development. In other words, a new-high at this stage, unless accompanied by an abrupt reversal in breadth-of-the- market data, would be an unfavorable rather than a favorable development. In my opinion, the following course of investment action should be followed at this stage of the market pattern in order to assume a more de- fensive position. – (1) All issues that have sharply should tre ri- quidated. Also would avoid low-yielding and high price-to- earnings issues that have advanced too sharply. (2 ) New purchases should be concentrated in defensive issues that are selling at reasonable price-to-earnings ratios to yield close to 5. (3) On minor price weakness, add to holdings in issues of secondary- companies that are 'slowly improving in quality and growth possi- bilities. There a few issues of this type available at reasonable price-to-earnings ratios and yields. Market action could be diverse over- the next few months. It is entirely possible that market averages could decline while the issues of the last two types mentioned above could be in an advancing phase. EDMUND VI. TABELL WALSTON & CO. This may memorandum n not to be hae an Interest in lome construed or all of , an offer or the securities 101l(lloilllon of offen to mentioned here.n The b IIY or a II any secur, t'In From foreqo,,,gd m,hrllli h,U bej tiamt'e,dtonb1,.mu,setetWInSd!eaIhdlomntoat&tfeorCreoc01l.oso'enrioIarnnmdyaeplploeanlr'dltneoennrt lytheIet ol1,5 bil5ed upon informatIon betleved reliable but not necusanly complete, IS not gUdran ee as accura e or Ina,

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - November 18, 1955 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - November 18, 1955 page 2
View Text Version (OCR)

' . , ' '.' J;' i, Walston &- Co.Inc. ' NEW YORK MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE ANO OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (SWITZERLAND I , TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 18, 1955 . -; Statistics AMERICAN CAN COMPANY With the industrial average . Current Market 46 ing at a relatively high price , )Current Dividend 2.00 earnings ratio, it seems wise to ,, .' 'Current Yield '.. . Long Term Debt . 1.75 Cum.Pfd.Stock -( 25;-Par) – – . Common 4.4 65,000,000 – 1,649,332 ' shs. '- 10,885,591 shs. recommend that new equity be limited to high quality stocks.ip companies with long unbroken records of stable earnings and dividends .. adding . to our recommended list, is an JNet Per Share, 1955 Net Per Share, 1954 3.00 (E) 2.53 issue of this type. , American Can is the largest or in the metal container industry ';Sales, 1955 700,000,000 (E) and, together with its principal, . JSales, 1954 652,400,000 competitor, accounts for over 70 '' of the total market. Its al'lnual '. rr…3;'1Mkt. Range 1955-54 49 1/4 – 35 3/4 sales volume ranks it among the ' fifty largest United States in- -; , !',dustrial corporations. Its favorable trade position in a basic industry ., it to maintain a steady, growing volume of sales. At its current price,American Can is selling at about 13 times earnings to yield atrout 4t. On an earnings basis, this is not too far out of line iwith a ten-year average PIE ratio of 12.7 times and from a yield viewpoint,' .;lthe income is extremely generous when compared to a ten-year average 4 ,. yield. This would seem to be a low price to pay for-a company which has '(, lbeen able to multiply sales better than two and one-half times since 1945 ;and at the same time suffer only a small shrinkage in profit margins. , Perhaps the reason that American Can is still on the bull market, is a tendency to regard 1952-1954 re- .' suIts as indrcative of the' company I i-future earn-ing-power -It ;- that this is not the case. In 1954 especially, results were hampered by an , ;iunusually poor crop year and an unusually cold summer which affected be&r During this period,hmerican Can was faced with heavy capital out- . ; 11ays which in 1954 ran to 36 million. As of this writing,a great deal of – rthis capital expenditure has been completed and should begin to be reflect- ed in expanded sales and earnings. This reflection should commence with .'; 1955 earnings which totaled 2.46 for the first nine months and should .. better 3.00 for the year. Further advances are expected in 1956. v .'.! r a t An ion e xpr las e t ssion mont h of o f Ma a nage 5eJ ment J s quart c er on ly fidence dividen in d i the ndi c future ating a was its 2.00 dec laannuai- 1rate.Since,based on 1952-1954 results, this would exceed the normal pay- ;, tout ratiO, the indication would be that Management feels confident that ,.i future earnings will cover the dividend by a wide margin. It is interes'B– f. ;, .'j ing age to of note that,except tin,American Can for has the war years with their never been forced to cut accompanying its dividend shortsince . It is true that kmerican Can faces a number of basic problems. First , of these is the ever-present possibility that the supply of tin may be -, t cut off. It is estimated that ) entire free world, and if the only 20 years J supply of tin exists Far East sources of supply were cut in the off thIs ,j . ; would be decreased to 5 years.To meet this threat the company has organ- ; ;.' ized an Operation Survival. Under this operation constant research is – ..; V ,being undertaken to cut down the amount of tin being used in metal This has progressed to the point where the amount of tin in the average . can has been lowered considerably and in certain specialized uses, such r,',;. as motor oil cans, enamel lining. It tin has is to be been entirely expected that eliminated in the packaging favor of industry an will be !,/'., able to cope with the problem of a depleted tin supply as the need arises. ; il',.'j On the plus With supermarkets contain but also side is the growth in use of all types of packaging. dominating the retail scene, a package must not only sell its product. Furthermore, with high consumer difr- , '1 , 'posable income, the consumer is more disposed to pay a premium for con- W, –; J letter 1.5 not. and under no clrcurntances IS to be eonatMled .., an offer to totll or .. aolicitabon to buy any referred to herein The Information erelft 1.5 not uar.. as to &.eO!uracy or et'lmpietenf'!!!!1 and the (urnlShlng thereof IS not, and under no cU'cuml!ltanees 1.3 tn beeonstf'ued M a representation r Wal'lt,m A C(j. lnf All or 0plnwn an t.ubjt to ehangt!' ',ltil.out notloe Walaton II; Co., Inc., or any Officet', Dlrt!'Ctor ot' thereof. may nve Iln IntRre'lt In the seeuntle mentIOned herein. ThIll market letter it. and -pt'esented merely B.l!I a It'eneral, In(ot'mal O!ommentary on dllY to day market and not a eomplett!' analYSL!ll Adilt.\ona\ Lnfonn&tIOD With respect to any t.unties refened to herein 1IVl1l bot fUrnl.Shed UDOn reql,le!Lt. WN 301 J J. 's . … …..d -2- venience, such as that afforded by aerosol bomb cans for insecticide, shaving cream and other products. – Another plus factor for American Can lies in the inroads which metal containers ,may be-expected -to makeonother-typesofpackaging. Perhaps one of the most important of these inroads may be in the soft drink field. There has been disappointment recently over difficulties which have been encountered by canned soft drinks. In many cases, these have been due to the fact that the product marketed was unknown or even inferior. Another block to consumer acceptance of soft drinks in cans is and has been the excessive cost of a can as compared to a reusable bottle. With the recent general rise in the price of soft drinks, however, this cost becomes a smaller percentage of purchase price and is more liable to be borne by the consumer as a premium for convenience. It is easy to be disappointed by the progress which has been made so far and to forget the fact that development of a pew market is a slow, gradual process. Pn historical comparison would be the growth of beer cans which has taken almost 20 years to reach its current status as the major beer container. It is quite possible that canned soft drinks will enjoy the same slow steady growth. Meanwhile, research by American Can and its competitors is constantly developing new markets which, added together, present sub- stantial growth potential. Among these are the aerosol bombs mentioned above, cans for frozen foods, fiber and metal biscuit containers and a host of others. These and new products still in the development stage .. From a technical-point of view, the present upside objective for American Can is 6-3-70 with excellent support just below the current market at 42-40. The pattern could broaden and point to eventual much higher levels. On this basis, the stock would seem to be an excellent comrnitment for all types of investment accounts. AWT/amb EDMUND 'II. T..BELL vlHSTON & CO.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - November 25, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. —…… – MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw,'wld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST cO…. NEcnt. BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER November 25, 1955 The market may be in the process of building a gradual broadening top in the form of expanding highs and lows, For example, the July high in the Dow-Jones industrials was 471.13 and the September high was 489.94. The hUgUSt low was 445.67 and the October low was 433.19. This potential top formation usually is completed in five phases – three of advance and two of decline. Four phases have been completed and we now may be in the last advancing phase. This advance could continue to a new high at the 505-515 high-is made the .a-moderate,-g;ip to the 470 support level is problematical. The rails have a similar pattern and also appear to be in an upward move to at least the 170-172 area. The average reached a new high at 168.69 on Friday. Of course,individual issues will have moves entirely independent of this general pattern. One of the poorer-acting industrial groups over recent months has been the air transport industry. Without exception, the leading stocks in the group are substantially below their 1955 highs and most of them have conti- nued to be rather listless market performers. After reaching a June, 1955 high of 668.9, the Standard & Poor Air Transport average reacted to 520.0, a decline of 22 from the high and a 38 retracement of the advance from the September, 1953 low of 274.1. ' The ostensible reason for this weakness lies in the huge capital ex- penditures which are going to become necessary as airlines enter the jet and turbo-prop age. To gain an idea of the magnitude of this it is only necessary to look at the announced expenditures versus the present stated capitalization of the airlines. Eastern Airlines,for example, has announced it will spend 350 million on jets and turbo-props. Eastern's present capitalization is under 100 million. Pan will spend 269 million versus a capitalization of 140 million; United 175 million ver- sus 145 million. It is bertainly true that the above expenditures may havec-a somewhat res tric t-ive–e-f-f'ect-ever–the-nearerc'1e-rm-. -To -1-0ok only a t- the less salutory effects is taking a rather short-sighted and one-sided view, however. This view fails to take into account the one basic fact which is fundamental to the entire expansion program, — the fact that if the new planes can earn money at a better rate than the cost of the capital which pays for them, the expansion will be of benefit to the present stockholders. There is no way of being certain at this point whether they will be able to earn at such a rate, but the facts seem to indicate that the possibility is excellent. The Civil Aeronautics administration recently issued a staff study forecasting the expected growth in the airline in- dustry over the next decade. It forecasts a doubling of passenger traffic and a tripling of freight traffic. It estimates that airlines will account for 50 of the total public transportation market as compared with about 29 presently.It estimates that U.S. airlines will carry 6 million tra- velers overseas in 1965 versus 2,400,000 in 1954. And many analysts feel that these estimates are It becomes evident that the present expansion and modernization programs are necessities and carry with them the strong probability of substantial earnings growth. It is also worthy of note that American's banks and insurance companies have been enthusiastic enough about the airline's expansion to provide senior capital freely. Eastern has recently arranged-for-90 million and American for 75 million of credit with two large insurance companies. It would thus appear that the current weakness in airline stocks may well be regarded as only a temporary factor. This would mean that at current PIE ratios of around ten times earnings, air transport equities provide attractive prospects for longerterm capital growth. Two outstanding vehicles for participation in this growth are, in our opinion, Pan 'irways (17), which has a long term ob- jective of 45 and, in the domestic field, United Airlines (37, with a long-term objective of 125. EDMUND W. TJ,BELL WALSTON & CO. . TM, Th., m.mor,ndum ,s not to be (ol'l1tru.d .1 ,n off.r or lOh clt.t,on 0f off,'1 t0 b U'/' 0r I.11 n'I' u..uhd.1tiuM,nFromr,pti.mr,.dto timul. UW.h lomn .tIt.rCo0 I 0In, fo'nr'ml' .tpio,rntnolnt lyth , r,of It me, h…..n ,nt,rul ,,. 101'1'1' or .11 of th, Mu,I,i m.ntloned h.,.ln. b.n.d IIDon ;nfo,I,o b.h ….d r.Ibl. but not neee…,lIy complete, flot qfuore.rCelOt','e''. m.t.tI … e. IICCW 0' fin.f , .nd ,. not ,nt,nd,d to for,elolt ,nd'D.nd,nt ,Mll/orV

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 02, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 02, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - December 02, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. Inc MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND' COMMODlTY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,Id) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER December 2J 1955 The market held in a narrow trading area during most of the week with only a few individual issues showing much price movement in either direction. Normal December action would indicate a continuation of ir- regularity and cross currents until the later part of the month. Tax loss selling has been of no great importance as yet, but could increase mode rately from her'e on. Any price declines should meet support in the 470- 465 area. normal technical action should call for rallying tenden- c ies later in the month, carrying over into January. — On such an advance, the Dow-Jones industrial average might reach the area. 1,s for distributional top 'I .belieye…… 'n6t -yet -be-'compl'eted.' Ir-it proceeds -a-long–'- the present course of slowly expanding tops and bottoms, it would be ex- pected that the present advancing phase would continue to a new high in the 510-520 zone. This should be the final phase of the advance and be followed by either a decline of at least intermediate term proportiDns or the alternative of a long consolidation period – similar to 1951-1953. Under the circumstances I believe it advisable to continue the policy ad- vocated in this letter of taking profits on strength, as individual issues reach their upside objectives. I advise long term capital appreciation accounts to build a 25 to 30 liquid reserve on strength into early January. Would not disturb long term investment accounts. Listed below are the issues remaining in my recommended list. All of these issues still indicate higher levels over the longer term, – despite the quite sizeable advances already witnessed. Continued reten- tion is advised. Robertshaw-Fulton, recommended at 21 and now selling at 28, is dropped from the list. Present Price Frice Recom. Yield Advice J..lleghany Corp. . AItegheny-Ludlum hllied Stores 9 – 0,. 61 3 3/4 – -473- 38- 5.0 Objective 12-17 . Sup .at 87 Ob-Ject. 85';Support at,-60-5S-, -Object. 98.Support at 55-53. American Chain 42 30-33 6.0 Hold for income.Sup.at Amer.Potash B 107 40 2.3 Object.12&-150.Support at 95-(\0. Assoc.Dry Goods 35 26 5.1 at 32-30 Barber Oil 56 59 5.3 Object.80-115.Support at -50-4c . Black & Decker Calgary & Edmonton 36 18 Ib – 2.8 Object.-68 .. Support at 32-30. 0.6 Buy for long term specuration Celanese 20 2.5 Object.34.Support at 20-18. Chain Belt 56 30-35 5.6 Object.78.Support at 50-.'t8. Cities Service 58 38 4.1 Object.81. Support at 52-5'0. Coca COra 125 122 4.0 Object.20&.Support at 125-lr5 Colgate-Palm. 57 60 4.4 Object.73-100.Support at 54-5 . Cornell Dubilier 35 21-22 6.8 Hold for income.Support at 3C Cutler Hammer 77 57' 4.7 Object.120-140.Support at 65-( Dow Chemical 56 38-40 1.8 Hold for growth.Support at-52 -'0. Dresser Ind. 51 33 5.0 Object.70-85.Support at Eagle Picher 37 22 4.9 Object .61-7-7 .Support at 36-33 Gen'l Rwy.Signal 66 59- 4.5 Object.140-150.Support at 60-) Hall Printing 23 1617 6.1 Hold for income.Support -at 20 Hewitt-Robins , Joy Mfg. 37 . 25-30 5.4 Object.85;-5upport at 35-33.– 23 -5.4 — Object.'37'75.Support Magma Copper 107 75 – Object.200.Support at 90. Monsanto Chem. 47 31 2.1 Hold for growth.Support at–43 O. Mont.Dakota Util. 27 26 3.7 Object.45-60.Support at 26-24 Pacific Petrol. 12 11- – Buy as long term speculaticm. Pan Amer.World h Raybestos-Man. 18 11-13 4.5 Object.27-45.Support at i,fi 42 6.1 Hold for i-ncome.Support at-53 1. Simmons Co. .'\8 36 6.3 Object.7196.Support at 4340 Sinclair Oil 57 46 – 5.4. Object.65-89.Support at-53-50 United Fruit 54 47-50 5.6 Object.86.Support at 53-52.- Auto 30 25 5.3 Hold for income. Support 28-27 Yale & Towne .merican Can 67 45 48 46 Object.1050Support at 60-58 . 4 ' nh ;,,.1-. hn,hC; .c,. ,,- I, -,0 market letter 19 not, and under no Til to be coratrued …. an offer to HI or contallJ.E'.1 here1n 1'1 not I(uaranteeri as to accuracy or and the turnlShmg by Wailtun & Co, Inc All nprellllonll of opinion are sub,)ed to ehan..e- Wlthout notll!e have an Intere-.t In the mentIoned Tba market letter III intended and news and nut a complete .nalnll. AdditIOnal InIormatlOD With raped. to any lecunbes lOiLcltation to buy any HCUrltIe! The mfornatwn- u .4er IS to beeonstlued .Q…'1, R representatIOn IrtI. . . Director or St.oC'kholder thereof, may .. Informal commentary on day to day market Mil g… Wnl13hed upon requeat.. WN 3111

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 08, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 08, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - December 08, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

,… – — Walston &Co. —-Inc —- ,, …. EMBERS NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER lEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw;',Id) OFFICES COAST TO COAST BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM –. EDMUND W. TABELL INSTITUTIONAL LETTER December 8, 1955 There has been little change in the technical pattern since ast letter. The rail average managed to reach new high territory at .68.79 on November 28th, as compared to the September high of 165.00,but .las since failed to follow through. The industrial average has so far unable to better the September and November highs of 489.94 and 90.35. Breadth-of-the-market action continues below average as far as iTolume, advances and declines, new highs and lows and other date is conerned. I still remain of the opinion that the. general market is slowly up a broad distributional top pattern that may still require some time to complete. Just what form the pattern will eventually take s, of course, not certain, but the evidence at hand appears to favor the of an expanding top and bottom reversal. Patterns of this oype usually take five steps to complete and, if my hypothesis is correct, fle are now in the fifth and final phase. This last phase may carry the Dow-Jones industrial average into new high ground before it is completed. This pattern has been in the process of formation since early Sumner. The first step was the advance to the July high of 471.73. The second step or phase was the decline to the August low of 445.67. The third step flas the advance to the September high of 489.94, which was above the July high. The fourth step was the October decline to 433.19 which, in turn, was below the August low and thus created the pattern of expanding highs nd lows. If the pattern follows the normal course, the fif.th and last should carryon to a new high before the top is reached. The advance could continue to the uptrend line connecting the July and September highs. This uptrend line now stands at 504, but will advance to 510 by the end of the year and to 520 by early February. Thus, the high will depend on when the next phase of the advance starts. Present indications favor a period of further consolidation for most of December with support at around 470 followed by an advancing phase into January or possibly early ,ebruary. After the high is reached, the pattern should follow a series of contracting highs and lows creating a diamond pattern followed by a downside breakout. Just how far the decline might carry is not ascertainable until the pattern is completed, but it would appear that the broad 400-350 area is the approximate downside possibility. This would envision a 20 30 decline from whatever top is reached. Another possible pattern is a broadening top without a penetration 00 new high territory by the industrial average, but the probabilities at he moment appear to favor the expanding top pattern. In any event, it nay take some further time to complete the formation. It seems difficult to enVision a decline of such proportions in view of the present favorable bUSiness picture and expanding earnings and dividends. However, stock prices depend on four factors. The first three are comparatively easy to evaluate. They are earnings,dividends and money rates. The fourth factor is the very intangible element of investor confidence. It is the thing that causes a stock to sell atuflelve times earnings at stage an at six times earnings at another. In many cases of individual issues,price to earnings ratios are relatively high. Listed below, the last column, are the prices at which five leading issues would sell at present earnings if the average 1953 PIE ratios prevailed at the moment. Stock Current Est.1955 Price Earnings Present 1953 PiE Ratio PiE Price at 1951 Ratio General Motors General Electric duPont Pacific 48 54 228 59 185 4.30 2.55 9.15 5.60 17.00 11.1 21.1 24.9 10.5 10.9 9.1 12.8 lY.9 5.2 7.2 39 33 182 29 123 These prices appear ridiculous at the present level of investor ponfidence and there is no evidence at hand to indicate a drastic change, piEpeut i t i s interesting to note the difference of r a t i o s in only twoletter !.!II riot. Ilnd untie!' no cJrI!umlltanceti III to be eon..tnIed as, aD oftII!!' to aT IOllcltaUon to btl,. any MC'Uritie5 referred to herem. The lnforrnallO,, not guaranteed lUI to ..eeurll.Cl' or cmnpletet\eg and the furnaslllnif is to Meo.nnrued &3, a representatum by Wahl ton II (;1), Je. AU teXprIUIOD!I or opInion are sub;eet. to change- WJt.hoa.t aotln. .lJlnCJo OT St.oe1cholder thereot. may have an Intere-t In the Heuntle'l mentioned 'h6etn. Tha multet. lrtter 11 iatornded and a commentary on day to day market news and not !\q a anal1'3ls. AddltJonal mtormaUOD 'llrith respect. to any ucuriues rWrt!l, 9Q;I request. WN 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 09, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 09, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - December 09, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

, Walston &Co. Inc – – – – MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY e;.cHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,hedd) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEr; BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER December 9, 1955 The Dow-Jones industrial average is again at the top of the broad fifty-point trading range in which it has held sjnce July. This week's high of 490.56 compares with a July high of 489.94 and a November high of 490.76. If our theory that the market is forming a broad top formation consisting of expanding highs and lows is the correct one, the present advance should reach new high territory somewhere between 505 and 520. The timing is not certain. There could be some preliminary consolidation followed by an advance later in the month or the market could attempt to push through immediately. -lJ'he present Oc-tuber low -of- 433–19 be the- c final phase of the broad distributional top which has taken six months to form. If normal technical procedure is followed, the advance could be led by speculative, low-priced issues on sharply increased volume. During this period, the better-grade issues might do little marketwise. I con- tinue to advocate a policy of building up liquid reserves of 25 or 30 during periods of market strength. ALLEGHENY LUDLUM STEEL, originally recommended by this letter in the low 30s, reached a new high of 70 5/8 this week. The 9-months earnings were 5.92 vs. 1.29 last year, re-enforcing our estimate that the company will be able to earn better than 8.00 for the year 1956. Depreciation for the first nine months amounted to almost 5.00 a share, indicating the huge cash flow being generated by this specialty steel producer. In the face of this strong earnings, the company increased the dividend for the second consecutive quarter from to Based on earnings potential, it would appear, however,that this 3.00 rate is still conservative and could be raised again. The stock continues to have an intermediate term objective of 85. JOY MJ,NUFACTURING also reached a new high this week at 71 1/4 after reporting earnings of 6.36 for the fiscal year ending. September 30th, bdteri,J)gQur Q.zs earningscompare YIitl4. 24 in 1954. -Especially worthy- of note is the- 2.15 earned in the final quarter, – indicating the possibility of 8.00 earnings for next year. This was fur- ther indicated by the statement of the President, Mr. J. D. L. Morrow, – that sales were expected to increase further in 1956. The long term ob- jective still remains 150 on the old stock and 75 on the new stock. COLGATE PALMOLIVE declared an extra dividend of 501 on the com- mon, bringing the total paid this year to 3.00. At the same time the Board of Directors announced its intention to maintain the 3.00 rate by raising the quarterly dividend to at the January meeting. The stock continues to have an intermediate term objective of 73 and a long term objective of 100. At its current price of 59, it yields more than 5. AMERICAN CAN, recommended only two weeks ago, has continued to attract a good deal of investor interest. One of the latest develop- ments on the part of this company's astute researchers is an aluminum coated can with welded instead of soldered side seams. This constitutes another step toward the eventual elimination in the use of tin in metal containers and the reduction of American Can's dependence on this metal. DRY GOODS recently reported earnings of 1.44 vs. 1.10 for the first-nine months of should report better than 3.50 vs. 3.15 with record Christmas sales. The stock was originally recommended by this letter at 26 and has a long term objective of 55-65, with support at 32-30. At its current price of 34, it yields 5.3. its CITIES dividend toSE6R0V1ICfEr,omwh5ic0h/, entered our list thus indicating at 38, recently raised a 2.40 annual rate and a 4 yield at its present price of 58. A 2 stock dividend was also de- clared. EDMUND \'1. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO., INC. – — .. . i..,al.. Ii. –

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 16, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 16, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - December 16, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

– Walston &Co. —-Inc.—- II ' MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw,t,ldl r OFFices COAST TO COAST CO'lNECTECi BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER , December 16, 1955 The usual year-end irregularity has taken over the market and continued ross-currents are to be expected until later in the month. Technical ction still indicates the possibility of another attempt to penetrate he 1955 high in the averages early in 1956 led by the more speculative ssues. Would continue to use strength to lighten holdings in longer-term apital appreciation accounts. There may be some excellent trading moves ver the next month. UTILITIES Statistics Market Dividend Yield 27 1.90 3,7 ong Term Debt 43,566,416 fd. Stock (100 Par) 150,000 shs ommon 2,000,221 shs et Per Share, 1955 et Per Share, 1954 1.45 E 1.46 perating Revenue, 1955 perating Revenue, 1954 'arket Range 1955-54 22,000,000 21,961',000 E 32t-19 Montana-Dakota Utilities was first recommended in this letter almost a year ago. At that time it was stated that the common stock represented a rare combination of the investment appeal provided by a fine growth utility plus a speculative land play by reason of the company's extensive leaseholdings in the oil-rich Williston Basin. Since that time, numerous developments have taken place which tern to improve both aspects of MontanaDakota's position. Despite this fact, the stock has done little marketwise and still appears att-' ractive for purchase close to current levels. To get a true picture of Montana-Dakota it is necessary to split it into its component parts. First and largest, of course, is the utility business, .seryingone ofthe ,rno st imp.o.I'.tant-.grnw.thareas,pf….thecoountry.. -,,;I'hisgen- erated 1.46 per share of earnings in 1954 and should earn about the same his year, although a' portion of the properties have been sold and a larger umber of shares are outstanding. Capitalizing these earnings at 15 times, a conservative p!e ratio compared with other growth utilities, gives a curent value of 22t for MDK's utility operation. A pie ratio of 17-18, not nduly optimistiC considering the long-term potential, gives a price equal vO the current market. Therefore, a price of nothing to 4 is being paid for the land play involved. This is provided by mineral rights which MDK holds under lease or perating agreement on 220,000 Williston Basin acres. Immediate interest ies in the 90,000 acres on the Cedar Creek Anticlir,e in Montana, which has een drilled extensively by Shell Oil. Since the original recommendation f Montana-Dakota in this letter, the crude-oil pipeline connecting eastern ontana to midwest refining centers has been completed, thus .providing a arket for the oil. Under leasing arrangements, Shell receives its orignal exploration and drilling costs before any accruals-to MDK. This '.(,1l1d be completed in two years, at which time ana–Dakota would be- in to participate in oil royalties. Earning from this source should pro- uce 40 to 50 per MDV 3hare initially followed by possible much higher evels as exploration progresses. A spin-off of the oil holdings to ontana-Dakota shareholders is, course, .always a possibility. As was stated above, Montana-Dakota's utility business possesses consic- rable investment attraction in its own right. The company serves almost he entire Williston Basin growth territory which has a sound agricultural ase and is expanding at a tremendous clip due to oil and industrial act- 'vities. MDK provides both gas and electrical service for these territories nd during the period 1950-54 was able to expand gas revenues almost 75 nd electric revenues almost 35, at the same time imprwiing the balance heet position. In summary, Montana-Dakota at present prices seems to combine true in- estment value, plus promising possibilities for additional capital gain hrough oil production. From a technical point of view,-the long-term ndication cont to be 45, followed by a ossible 60-65. There is eontamel herein 1'1 not by & Co Ine have an lntere-t In tM news and not a ehaanodre …, ',. letter w With rnped. to any .untles Stockholder may commentary on day to day market upon request. WN 30t —

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 22, 1955

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 22, 1955

Tabell's Market Letter - December 22, 1955
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE ANO OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw …I..dJ OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTfC BY OIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER December 22, 1955 Traditional year-end strength has shown up right on schedule and it would appear that the trading shelf between 476.42 and 490.75 in which the Dow-Jones industrial average has held for twenty-seven trading days will be penetrated on the upside. Such an upside penetration would confirm the indication of 505-520 on the industrials mentioned in recent letters. I continue to believe that the advance will be spearheaded by the lower priced speculative issues on sharply increased volume. Such price action of the lower-priced issues would complete the cycle of the distributional top that, from a technical viewpoint, has been slowly building up since July. Timing is not exact, but the strength could carryover well into January. Would use – strength to' lighten l5-otn'trading a.nd longer term -c-apit-al appre- ciation accounts. PACIFIC PETROLEUMS,LTD. Statistics Current Market Current Dividend 12 1/2 None The recent technical action of some of the better Canadian oil producers indicates that these equities may be of interest to the investor who is Cemmon Stock 4,457, 563 shs. Net Fer Share,19S6 Net Fer Share,195S O.l'l E 0.06 D willing to hold for the long term and to assume a certain amount of specula- tive risk. Calgary & Edmonton, which entered our recommended list at 16, Mkt. Range -1955-51 13 5/8 Fiscal Year ends Feb.28. moved to a high of this week. Our other recommended Canadian oil, Pacifi Petroleums, also shows good promise based on its participation in plans to import Canadian natural gas to serve the fast-growing Pacific northwest area This gas will be imported under a three-way agreement between Pacific Northwest Pipeline, El Paso Natural Gas and a company called West Coast Transmission which will build a pipeline to the Canadian border. There it will connect with Pacific Northwest Pipeline which the gas—Lnto E1- F-asols-system.-The gas- to a large part of the Peace River area of Canada. Of the major producers in this area we feel that Pacific Fetroleums currently represents the best long term participation in Peace River production. Our feeling is based on the fact that Pacific Petroleums provides the broadest coverage of the field. It is (1) The owner of substantial natural gas reserves in its own right; (2) a holder of approximately 50 of the stock of another major natural gas producer; (3) a major holder in the high- ly leveraged pipeline which will carry natural gas from the Peace River field to the Canadian border, and (4) a holder of promising oil and producing oil wells in addition to its gas holdings in the Peace River area. Pacific Petroleums' gas reserves alone would justify its current market price. It tural gas is estimated to reserves which, have approximately one valued at the standard tfrigilulrieonofcu51bicpefreethtouosfannda- cubic feet, is worth 50 million, or more than the current value of Pacific Petroleums' entire common issue. The company is also the holder of 1,433,050 shares or 52 of the stock of Peace River Natural Gas which is estimated to have a total of trillion cubic feet of proven reserves. Pacific will offer participation in transportation of River gas as well as production since it will own a substantial interest in West Coast Transmission. Since this company will have million of senior capital, its leverage possibilities are tremendous-and could result In substal),tial additions to Pacific Petroleums' earnings. In addition to the above, further potential is provided by varying in- terests held by the company in seme 75 oil wells,entirely apart from the gas development. In summary, it can be seen that Pacific Petroleums is worth close to its market value on its own natural gas reserves alone and that nothing is being paid for the half interest in Peace River Natural Gas, the interest in West Coast Transmission or the possibilities inherent in oil From the technical point of view, the stock appears to be building a strong base with a present upside potential of 40. This pattern could broadeh EDMUND W.TABELL market letter 13 not, and under no IS to c.eon\alneol heulf'l UI not Sl'Wlranteed u to a.eeuracy or b,. Walton 10 , lne. All UpreMIOnl of opinIOn arn1l ,ed.kteosa WiilJMf6rIedas an or .. tltUtSJItJiiivthe't nolftS'eh'Ii'nto tNhtft!'eof ill not. and under no &; cU'cuml'ltanCf!! 1lI tn to herem becon9trued TahreepInrtels')ernmtaattliOolnt WallIton C(). Inc or any Officer Dlreetor or St.oekholtier thereof, may tended aDd' proe'flUd me'l'ely as gene1'al, eommentary on da,. to day market have aannd nut aInctohmeplleeeteunantlael!pmlleI ntAIOddnleudohnearleIInnt.orma'IStlOmlIaor..-tth l'ClIIpeet ……n,. .unti ref erred. to herein WlII be furnished ulXln request. WN 301

Download PDF