Tabell’s Market Letter – September 28, 1948

Technical Market Action This letter is of necessity a short one as it is being dictated from a hospital bed to which an infected foot has consigned me. Some unkind people may say that I stubbed my toe on the 450 average, but I assure you it was just caused by a tight shoe. Monday's market, by reaching an intra-day low of 175.84 on the industrials and 57.42 on the rails, jointly penetrated the August lows of 177.40 and 58.24 respectively. However, today's market recovered from the opening and the penetration was fractional. I consider this action merely a continuation of the secondary downtrend and while at this time it is problematical whether or not the market will work somewhat lower than yesterday's levels, I strongly feel that we are in or approaching a very favorable buying area. The worst that can be envisioned at this time would be the lower part of the 176-171 range mentioned in my letter of September 22nd. My opinion as to what will be the leading groups on the recovery remains unchanged. The steels and the rails look particularly attractive. This continues to be an almost entirely psychological market in my opinion. A sidelight on this fact is the circumstance that over the last fifteen weeks the market has declined on 14 Mondays and recovered on 10 of the Tuesdays following. This can only be accounted for by the state of mind engendered by the weekend papers and Sunday night commentators. Despite the continuous alarums and ecursions of the last two months, yesterday's lows were only 3.74 and .97 lower, industrials and rails respectively, than the intra-day lows reached on July 19th. To summarize, I feel that we are at or approaching the end of this intermediate downtrend and the turn when it comes will result in much higher prices over the next few months. September 28, 1948 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 65-Stock Average 177.54 58.17 66.27 Th. opinion. expressed In this letter are the pananol Interpretation. of chert. by Mr. Edmund W. Tab.1I end are no' presented as Ihe opinion. of Shield. & Company.