Tabell’s Market Letter – March 27, 1992
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, eN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 March 27, 1992 Since dramatically breaking the 3,000 level in the fall of 1991, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after a decline of been6.93, has continued to advance, albeit at a slower rate, to a recent high of3,290.on March 3—Fithin t!lis-nrltime''-I frame from'last flill to-date coiiStinitiilg ito tradfug days,- there-lillie someobvioushortte;m–;'han in the group and sector leadership of the market. As these shifts continue to unfold they should be monitored closely and should be of interest to all of us. The table below enables us to compare fhis period from October 1991 to date with the most recent twelve-week changes for Standard & Poor's Industry Group Indexes as of fhis Wednesday. The start of the October 1991 period is coincident with the then record October 18 high of 3,077.15 on the DJIA. The figures on the left show the 33 best performing groups out of a total of 95 from October 1991 to date and is ranked in that order. The table on the right is ranked on the past twelve-week changes, or from the start of fhis year, and shows the best performing groups for that period. PRCM Dec ll. u n umt t CEI'J. 1 41..121 I 40.364 1 31.387 … 35.609 5 30.738 Ii 26.231 '7 25.8 8 12.197 51 21.364 10 Z0.6517 11 20.376 CSQ.PIlCIM OCt 115 lnl RARX … 37.983 z 55.215 1 61..742 22 16.832 8 21'.735 42 8.818 11 l2.41U , 29.137 16 21.364 6 30.368 11 2.. ..016 ..,.,. .- BL'BCT'RO'lrCOICOS',msi.s.'.aa.a.s.. OIf ….. BUILl BZCUIDDQ GBlf. !IJ'l'OU AD'l'O PUTS- ArrBIl IGRIB'l' RLBCft01ttcs ,SBMlcarmtJCTORS BIlAVT D'I1l'f 'l'BlJCQ PA2'1'S …………,.,. '.S..O..'….,T.O,.U..D …. 'lIDnCM OCt 16 1991 1 61.7U 2 5'.llS 3 52.280 .. 37.983 5 30.710 , 30.'68 ,. 251.137 8 27.735 II 25.370 10 24.850 11 24.096 PRall Dec 31 1991 RARX t CB3 3 37.387 2 40.36 14 17182 1. 41.l.l1 20 11.900 10 Z0.6'7 8 3.l.191 5 30.738 53 O.7!i19 62 -3.U7 11. 20.376 fIJOSBIIOU) P 10 A BIm Ma.TEIlIALS 12 18.'182 II 17.370 15 31.52.5 26 PUBloUlBDIJ umwsPAPBJlS) 2 24.003 13 22.288 lt 22.048 15 16.186 7 25.968 11..377 ii J Jc ,'LDIIG 24.003 A 15 11.S2S 21.364 TKS i ; i PAPEIlPORBST PR.ODaCTS 18 13.389 n l.1.!il67 SDUPBRABOLPD PDRQ.DIJCfS 17 19.337 18 11.149 18.407 BICLtll)DQ I.B.H 7.10 -; 19 13.200 45 8.1'73 –L– '; –ii5lO. IlRS'l'1lD2Am'R I.&zstmB-TIHl''''''''''-'''' -ig,– 2 18.783 21.3' 1.659 U.468 70 -5.840 25… t– i it; – POBI.XSBIm nmfSPUBRS) 22 11.377 At11'CMlBILB 16.832 35.609 IIJRBY cmrrmr. BARJlI ,. ..AB8TMJRARl'!I t.BIBURB TIMR BMU (CCIG'09IT8) OFFICI RQOIPMEm' 10 BlJlIPLUS aMGDlC1AL SBRVICBS ALUMNUM ,…,..,.,. ..ptlBLISHIPO CKEMICALS HBTALS MISCllLLMBOOS ' YDIVBRBIFIBD 23 11.112 Zt 10. ,fifi 25 10.126 26 10.018 27 SI.llS 28 7.051 29 6.867 30 6.396 11 6.221 32 6 .172 33 5.667 7.541. 20 l.7.660 1.7.056 9.883 16.101 3.915 4.123 16.509 50 6.962 00 '2.622 57 5.659 PIJIILISBIRJ OrPIa BQUlJIMBIff strPPLIBS 1QIIOAQ IILl)Q MTBIlDILS CCIMPO'l'D. BOP'l'IWllI SBRYICBS GBNBRAL MBRCHANDISB CBJUlCS IIDTBL/..,…. ll2'1'AXL1 SPBcrALT!-UPARBL PAPER POUST ftODtJC'l'S 16.509 16.101 15.418 15,011 11.838 13.858 12.768 30 U.646 31 12.436 12.132 J3 U.t67 6.396 9.31.5 4.354 13 17,370 35 5.328 56 -1.368 15.621 5. -1.658 ..746 9.353 1.3.389 An inspection of the left-hand table shows the list has been dominated by the consumer-durable, transportation and natural resource sectors of the market. Not surprising, is the under representation on fhis list of the consumer non-durable sector, last year's place to be. Also conspicuously absent is the entire energy sector. Substantial gains in groups related to machine tools, electronics and autos from October 1991 to date have relatively outperformed the S&P 500 Average by a significant amount. Other groups, however, have dropped in rank when measured from the first of this year. These groups would include soft drinks, toys, cosmetics and retail related groups. – The right-hand table, while continuing to favor the consumer-durable sector, shows an interesting number of new names to the list. These groups would include aluminum, chemicals, and metals, to name a few. Many of these groups were among the worst performers last year, but have, in the last twelve weeks, moved into the top fhird of the list and certainly bear watching. The central theme to be developed from this type of periodic exercise is to monitor group and sector rotation onan ongoing basis ill order to refleCt iDteal changes occurring within-tii k market. The importance of these internal changes will continue to help us identify new leadership in a maturing bull market and, conversely, will show potential sector and group deterioration which would signal a correction or significant change in the stock market. Robert J. Simpkins, Jr. Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) Standard & Poor's 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/23/92) RJSaa 3252.91 406.36 7379.92 No slalcmenl or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matler IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and Information Delafield, Harvey Tabel1lnc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posilions or trades In respect to any securrtles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS regIStered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVIce to Its Investment adVlSory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further informatIOn on any security mentioned herlln IS avaltable on requesl