Tabell’s Market Letter – August 03, 1979

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 OIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – DA'I'-E ,.,.,-;– DiHA 4/10/79 5/14/79 5/22/79 6/01/79 7/09/79 7/23/79 8/01/79 878.72 825.02 845.37 821. 21 852.99 825.51 850.34 DATE 4/10/79 5/14/79 5/22/79 6/01/79 7/09/79 7/23/79 8/1l1/79 -DJI-A '878,72 825.02 845.37 821. 21 852.99 825.51 850.34 – ,- 233.25 104.26 222.15 98.61 233.49 100.41 233.10 101. 83 251. 56 107.75 247.52 107.31 256.72 108.49 ASE NASDAQ NASDAQ INDEX COMPOSITE BANKS 181. 53 176.17 181. 75 188.00 201. 71 195.28 198.74 134.22 128.99 131. 90 131. 76 139.15 137.57 141. 90 108.19 105.06 105.83 105.21 109.36 110.87 112.31 August 3, 1979 -500 '- 103.34 115.34 98.06 109.40 100.51 112.04 99.17 110.23 47 115.68 101. 59 112.31 104.17 115.17 NASDAQ VALUE LINE INSURANCE COMPOSITE 143.13 136.43 139.09 137.69 152.94 149.79 155.17 110.8'8 107.10 109.42 109.29 114.83 113.60 116.52 NYSE CE 60.30 57.68 59.48 59.47 65.51 63.78 66.35 CUM INDEX 756.10 716.00 731. 35 731. 01 771. 04 756.31 778.19 This letter has often been accused, with some justification, we must admit, of attempting to stupefy the reader with numbers. Despite this, we hope that our beginning this week's exercise with a solid panoply of such numbers will be forgiven. We think array of figures above tells a story, if the reader will take the time glance at it. A Bubtitle for these comments, we suppose, could be What Average Do You Like We have above the history of a dozen at'selected-dates over the past ,four months, – trying to include most market indicators that possess any regular following plus our own Cumula- tive Index. (We have included the Dow in both halves of the table for ease of comparison.) The point of the whole exercise is really quite simple. The msrket, we are told regularly, has been locked in a trading range ever since mid-April and remains well below its April high. This state- ment is quite true for the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. It is, however, false for every single one of the other averages listed above. ' Indeed, the most significant thing the table above shows is that almost all of the market indi- cators were, as of Wednesday's close, well above their highs' of last April and at new highs for 1979. The only exceptions to this rule were three widely-followed barometers, the two Standard 81 Poors indices and the ASE index. All three of these, however, had attained new high territory on July 9 and had moved, as of the middle of this week, to within an ace of achieving still higher peaks. In other words, what shows up as a series of swings within a trading range on the Dow turns into an almost uninterrupted uptrend when other indicators are inspected. We think this point should be emphasized only becuase, as a preliminary to figuring out where one is going, it is necessary Ilrst to ascertain where one is at the moment. In terms of the Dow, we are in a market that has been faltering for the best part of a year. The last new high on this index was made last September; its high of April was below that peak, and as the table shows, it has spent all summer swinging back and forth below the April high. Yet almost any other indica- tor one chooses to inspect has spent the best part of the year moving ahead to new peaks. It should be unnecessary to have to restate the rather simple fact that a market that is making new highs is a bull market. The awesome array of numbers abtlve shows, it seems to us, that that is precisely the market environment we were in as of this Wednesday. Now another obvious fact is, of course ,-that all bull'markets top and the pres- ent one will be no exception. However, as noted above, it is important to take note of where we are. If a process of market deterioration has begun—a contention that is at least debatable— it should be in a much earlier stage if we recognize the fact that the market, as measured by the bulk of indicators, is attaining new peaks and has been doing so for some time, rather than lan- guishing as the Dow and other widely followed indices might suggest. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 846.16 S & P Composite (1200 PM)- 103.88 Cumulative Index (8/2/79) 780.53 AWTsla …. – , No statement or expressIon of oplnlon or any other matter hereIn contained IS, or to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCItation of on offer to buy or sell any secUrity referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converllenee of the subsCilber While Ne believe the sources of aur information 10 be reliable, we 1M no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude heretn Any action to be token by the subscnb('r should be oosed on hiS own tn\leshgatlon and Infarmahan Janney Montgomery Seoll, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler toke, poSitions or trades In respect to any S!unhes mentioned In thIS or any luture Issue, and such POSItIon l1'l(ly be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISSue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS regIstered With the SEC as on Investment adVIsor, may give adVice to Its nwestmenl adVisory and othel customers tndependently of any statements mode In or In ony other ISsue Further tnformatlon on any secvnty mentioned herein IS available on request