Viewing Month: April 1958

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1958

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 03, 1958

Tabell's Market Letter - April 03, 1958
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Mern ben New Y o,'k Stock El'change NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Fort Myers Beach, Florida, April 3,1958 The warm sands of a Florida beach far from the ring of the telephone make Ion range thinking much easier. This is particularly true when one considers what these sands were worth ten years ago and what they are worth today. In our investments as well as in our speculations we are often much more con- cerned about the nearer term outlook than we are in long range planning. The shorter and intermediate term fluctuations are important, but the great majority of really large stock market profits have been made by first judging the long term trend correctly and then uSing.the shorter-range m.ovements as a c9rollary t9 the.main.objective… The longer range trend of stock market prices, in my opinion, is toward higher levels. If this reasoning is correct, the main objective of the investor or long range speculator today is to slowly accumulate stocks in companies where the longer term out look favors continued growth and where prices are temporarily depressed by lower immediate earnings. I say that the longer range trend of prices is toward higher levels because of two main reasons. First, because the favorable longer-term trends of population growt , rising standards of living and new research products have produced a growing population with increasing desires and the ability to obtain these desires. These developments are fundamentally sound and while they probably were overdiscounted at the stock market highs of 1956 and 1957, the longer term trends in population, standard of living and research continue to indicate growth. The second reason is inflation. Whether we facts must be faced. In my opinion, facts indicate that a slow i i i continue. At times there will be slight temporary deflationary cks' e present, but the main trend is inflationary. Governmental po 'cies 'ate a certain extent by political reasons are partially responsible. nee finance a growing economy, .' –cIevelopmenf of new'markets in'und 'inorderto ob'tiiinou'r dePleted raw materials are other r on. t6itneet the challenge of Soviet Russia While e 0 ok for stock market prices is favorable, I do not anticipate any im t' te advance nor do I expect all stocks at a later date to participate in a oad market rise. There will be many stocks selling much lower ten years fro w, just as there are many stocks today selling much lower than ten years ago despr e the fact that the stock market averages have advanced more than 2000/0. I continue to look for a trading range for the balance of 1958 and probably into 1959. The Dow-Jones Industrials, now 440.50, will probably continue to range in about the 480-420 area and the Standard & Poor 500-Stock Index, now 41.48, will probably range in the 45-39 area. Best immediate price action will be shown by the consum er goods stocks like utilities, tobaccos, food chains, drugs, soft drinks, etc. The reason for their strength is ,obvious. The soft goods companies have shown in- creasing earnings in 1957 and will continue a favorable showing in 1958. Other groups are slowly basing out and, while 1958 earnings may still be in a declining trend, a reversal hoped for in 1958. Bugding papers, would, be among the groups in this category. The heavy industry groups probably will need a longer period of time to consolidate and base out and might in the meantime reach new low territory on unfavorable earnings reports. However, if the long term trend is toward higher levels, price weakness should be welcomed as an opportunity to buy sound, growth equities at attractive price levels. The next eighteen months may be the last opportunity to buy stocks on the present 525-415 range before they advance to a higher plateau. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Tlml tn!ll k('t lctt('T , .. not. nnd unner no is to be construcd IS, an afl'eT to sell or n sohCltahon to huy nny securItIes referred to hereIn The wfO! mahan (nnlnmcd n'll'w 15 not ,nmruntced liS to aCCUlIlC Of find the furnishIng- thereof IS not, find undel no clnumsutllcc,q to be construed as, n rcprChcnta ('Ill hy \\'nl'ltoll & Co lnc All expresSIOns of OPinIOn nrc IlllhJcct to \\lthout notlCe. Walston & Cu. IIIC, anti OITlcerll, Stockholders alld l'.llll'luycc'l iherc)f, )ulchn;e. sell and mny havc an interest III the mentIOned ht'IClIl ThiS markC't letter mtended and merely as a general, llIflmnl commcntllry II d,ll' to day mdrket news and not ns n complete Ad.htwllul ,nfolmatioll ,th respect to nny !'ccurlttCB referred to herem wlll bc fUIIII'.. h('lj IlPn rCIlllcst X 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1958

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1958

Tabell's Market Letter - April 18, 1958
View Text Version (OCR)

NEW YORK W—-d–l-s–tlonnc–&—C-o. Members New Ymk Stock Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Fort Myers Beach, Florida, April 18,1958 Under the stimulus of a cut in the rediscount rate and a further lowering of requirements, the market was up sharply on Friday. The Dow-J ones Industrials reached of 450.75 and the Standard & Poor 500-Stock Index touched 42.87. Friday's strength been preceded by firmness in the rails on Thursday and the Dow-Jones Rail average ached an intra-week high of 111.05. So far, the Dow Industrials have continued to hold in a range bounded by the Fehrmlr and low of 459.77 and 434.04. The ultimate breakout from this range will determine direction of the next intermediate move. Upside objective would be 470-480 and down- side objective 425. The Standard & Poor 500-Stock average reached a new high and if fol- 45 Ability toreach a new'high-on'theDow-J one indicate 116. The theme that this letter has consistently stressed since last August – namely e advisability of switching from cyclical, heavy industry type stocks into the defensive consumer goods category – has proven profitable for the individual interested in capital tion over a six months or longer period. Most of the consumer goods issues are selling well above the 1957 highs and in many instances have reached all-time highs. Fur ore, technical and fundamental work would appear to indicate that this action will continue over the foreseeable future. It has been difficult for the average investor or trader to realize that the cum;unrrerl goods issues have appreciation possibilities. Memories are short, however, and it is that dairy stocks, bakeries, grocery chains, retail stores, liquors, containers, to- ccos, finance and soft drink issues were the leaders of the 1942 to 1946 advance. Of , the main reason for the advance at that time – obconsumer goods – es not exist today but the present fundamental bac),grou fo \hfiere t reasons favors consume r goods issues. Furthermore, most of ds ps are selling to- at much lower price/earnings ratios than the 6 tops. This does not to the foods, food chains and utilities &ei1'il higher pte ratios because ear-nings stabilityand-a-slowbut- ' ever, othe-r-soft goods is sues- – are not selling IC(lmlp,mlles, containers, tobac s evW– lOnS of 1946. Soft drinks, finance were selling at over twenty time s earnings in e 0 1 a below that ratio today. I still favor continued InolOlmg of select d sues despite the sharp advances of the past six Im'Dn1ths. Among the s s c . ue to favor are Current Price Indicated Div. Yield Ameri n Can Anchor Hocking Glass Container Corp. Carolina Power & Light Family Finance First National Stores Lily Tulip Cup Philip Morris United Biscuit Wilson & Co. 45 52 19 30 27 59 71 50 33 20 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.32 1.60 2.50 1.80 3.00 1. 60 1.00 4.4 3.8 5.3 4.4 5.9 4.2 2.5 6.0 4.8 5.0 not in the consumer or soft goods.category.'rother issues that appear should be accumulated for longer term holding include Current Price Indicated Div. Yield Hoffman Electronics International Min. & Chern. Pan-Amero World Air National Gypsum Raytheon Zenith Radio 26 28 14 47 26 74 1. 00 1. 60 .80 2.00 stock 2.50 3.8 5.7 5.7 4.8 3.4 EDMUND W TABEP, ThiS market letter IS not. and under no Clrcumstnnci!S IS to be as, an offer to 1iI\J.y to herem The informatIon ('untamed hel em 15 not (!unrllnt('((1 as to accuracy or completeneJs and the furnlshlllg therH)A'nUt;' Jh\'l-1inllePho tJ to be construed as, a representa tH.n b)' \\'nl'lton & Co, Inc All c(prCSSIOIlS of OlHnlon nre subject to chnnge Without notice & Co, Inc, flnd Officers, Dln'ctors. Stockholders and t,mploecs thereof, )lUrcha'lc, sell and mny hn\e an Interest In the 'lecUritH'S mentlonerl herem ThiS mflrket letter IS mtended and prcsented merely as a general, mrUl mal commcntm y nil .Iny to rillY mnrket news and not ns a complete analYSIS Additional mformntlon v.lth respect to any securities referred to herem Will he upon reQuest. \\ N 30l

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1958

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 25, 1958

Tabell's Market Letter - April 25, 1958
View Text Version (OCR)

NEW YORK Wdlston &Co. Inc. Members New York Stocle Exchange SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGElES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM CHICAGO TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 25, 1958 From a technical point of view, the stock market is putting up quite a remarkable performance. The varIOUS averages have held well above the October lows despite the fact that first quarter earnings reports are extremely poor with a great many institutionally here stocks failing to show sufficient earnings to cover the last quarterly dividend payment. In the face of all of this, the market is close to a six-month high. This action indicates that investor confidence continues at a high level with the prevailing opinion that present poor earnings are only temporary and will be followed, after a consolidating and adjusting perie d by a renewed uptrend. If this proves to be the case, the market should continue to hold in – the' 9–45 -area in- the Standard & Poor 500-Stock Index for a considerably longer period of time. Some lightening of commitments in intermediate term trading accounts is indicated as the upper limit of the expected trading range is reached, in anticipation of replacing sales near the lower part of the range. As we have noted in previous letters, the general market can be divided roughly into four groups, all showing diver se action. The soft goods groups and special situations have shown above average action. The semi-durables and heavy goods stocks have acted poorly in comparison. We have tried in our recommended list to confine most of our com- mitments to the first two categories. A brief technical review of the twenty issues in our recommended list follows AMERICAN CAN (46) continues to hold in the broad 38-49 trading area in which it has held since 1954. The long term potential is 75-85 with 55-57 as an intermediate term possibility. Hold and buy on weakness into the 43-40 support level. ANCHOR HOCKING GLASS,(51) has risen quite sharply since its but con- tinued retention is advised. Long term potential is e ort at 48-45. BELL & HOWELL (56) has shown excellent technic 0 in e market uncertain- ty of the past year. At its present level it is near , but the long term po- e. CAROLINA POWER & iwaicate a slow uptrend to the 40-45 po- tential. Would co mit n e support level. CONTAINER CORP. (19) has held in the narro 9 the star't of the year. Appears to be slowly forming a strong an eventual 27 objective. Continue to hold and buy on minor weakn (27) has broken out on the upside of the 25-2 trading area and has a I erm upside potential of 43. At present levels the yield is 4.7/0. Would contin 0 hold and buy on minor weakness. FIRST NATIONAL STORES (60) has a most interesting long term projection with an initial 70-75 followed by 85. Continued retention is advised. GENERAL RAILWAY SIGNAL (25) is one of the few issues in our list in the heavy goods category. The stock has held in the 20-26 range with an upside potential of 34, but may need some further consolidation. First quarter earnings may be below average so would suggest intermediate term traders switch into other issues in recommended list on strength. Patient long term holders may continue with this issue. HOFFMAN ELECTRONICS (26) is one of our favorite issues. Relative strength has been good and the stock has reached a new high since 1955. There is some overhead supply between 26 and 30 that may slow action, but the longer term potential is 45. Would continue to hold and buy on minor. dips. INTERNATIONAL MINERALS & — CHEMICAL (29) has held since early 1956 in the 25-31 range. An upside penetration of his area would indicate the possibility of an advance to the 45-50 range. LILY TULIP CUP (75) has also had a sharp advance since its original recommendation. Would continue o hold, however, as the longer term obJective is over 100. NATIONAL GYPSUM (46) Action may be slow but would continue to hold. Long term objective higher. PAN AMERIC WORLD AIRWAYS (15). Relative strength continues to show improvement while action be slow. Would continue to hold. PANHANDLE EASTERN PIPE LINE (45) has reached upper part of 36-47 trading area. Suggest intermediate term traders sell on cur- rent strength. PHILIP MORRIS (50) Technical action excellent. Intermediate term object- 've 70-75. Support at 48-46. Of the remaining issues in list we would continue BUY- HOLD recommendations on RAYTHEON (26), UNITED BISCTTTT (32) WIT ..sON & CO (20) r– r\'oI1\lSon & Co. lne All (''I(preSSlOns of OPIniOn are subject to change! Without notice Walston & Co. lne, and Officers, Directors. Stockholders and purchase, sell and mny hrl\e an mterest in the ruw-ketr1Jj;1\'QtlJJtcllJ'led and presented merely as a general, Informal commentllry nn day to day market new'S and not as a complete analysIS f\nnhhetiupon re(luest. UIl!J. T r n secullhes referred to herem Will be R. Tl\Tr' \\l\ 301

Download PDF