Viewing Month: July 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1953
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Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,t,ld I OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEG BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM l'ABELLT'She MmAaRrKkEeTt LcEonntEiRnued its creeping advance during the week on small trading. On only one day did the volume of transactions reach the million share mark. At the week's high, the industrial average was approaching a one-third retracement of the thirty-five point decline from the January hi.ghs. The rails, of course, have already recovered half of tlJeir compar- al)le losses. I would expect a mild continuation of the advance over the 'lear term with, as usual, extreme selectivity. The building supply stocks have done little marketwise for over four years, despite the fact that the building industry has been experiencing a Gerrific boom both in the residential and industrial sectors and 1953 volume 1B expected to top that of 1952. The fear of an anticipated decline in con- st;ruction has held back building supply issues to the point where they cer- tainly do not appear overvalued. From a technical viewpoint, quite a number of building issues appear relatively attractive. They have done little marketwise since we included them in my recommended list over two years ago, but, on the other hand, they have acted very well defensively and the yields have been excellent. The present technical patterns are still constructive. Sizeable potential accu- mulation areas have been formed and most issues appear to be not too vul- nerable in case of a general market decline. The table below illustrates I;he present technical patterns of a number of selected building supply iEsues. The upside potentials and percentage advances are obviously for the long term and not for immediate act jon – Downside Upside Possible Possible Price Yield Support Potential Advance Decline 'American Radiator 14 7.1 13-12 22-25 78 14 Crane Co. Johns Manville 29 6.8 29-27 60 6.6 60-55 50-60 85-100 100 66 10 10 Na.tional Gypsum 21 6.6 1918 35-42 100 15 Otis Elevator U. S. Gypsum 40 6.2 39-37 45-65 106 7.0 100-96 170-180 62 70 10 10 Ya.le & Towne 36 6.9 33-32 60-66 82 10 These issues are recommended for patient long term holding and for good yield. A technical synopsis of these issues are outlined below. AMERICAN RADIATOR (14) This stock appears to be building up a strong potenlal base pattern in the 10-17 area. While no immediate move is indicated, the eventual objective is 25 foJlowed by 35. There is some temporary supply i1' the 20-22 range. Would buy on all price declines. Action may be very slow. Tbere is support at 13-12. eoCRANE COMPANY (29) The upside objective was attained at the high of 42 reach in 195. Stock held in 38-42 area. Downside penetration indicated 29. 1952 low was 29. Buy on all dips. Stock appears to be forming wide head and shoulders bottom with upside objective of 60 or better. The 29..34 potential base indicates a possible 38-43. There is support at 29-27. 7JO8H-7N3S MANVILLE (60'Stock reached its first objective at 78 in 1952. Held in area. The downside penetration indicates 63-58 where stock should be taught. Recent low was 60. Would buy on price declines as long term object- ive is 85 to 100. NATIONAL GYPSUM (21) While there is no indication of an immediate move, stock appears to have formed a strong base pattern in 12-25 area. There is an i!'1'itial objective of 32-35 followed by a later 42. Buy on all price dips. Tbere is support at 19-18. 01'IS ELEVATOR (40) Stock has been in a slow uptrend since 1950. Held in the 3539 range. The upside penetration indicates 45-49. Long term objective is 60-65. 1953 high was 45. Buy on dips. There is support at 39-37. U. S. GYPSUM (106) Stock appears to be building a strong potential base pattern in the broad 90-135 area. Upside implications are not clear,but are Substantial. Would buy on declines to 107-101 area. Recent low was 106. YALE & TOWNE (36) At 1951 high of 48 stock had about reached objective. Th cp formed indicated 36-34. 1952 low was 33. There is possibility of a broad head and shoulders bottom pattern at 33-20-33, with an indication'of 66 fo1 lowed by 82. Recently held in 33-40 area. An upside penetration would indi- cae 45-51 over the intermediate term. EDMUND W. TABELL Jl11y 3. 1953 WALSTON & CO. Thl memorandum IS not 10 be construed as an offer or 50 licitation of offers to buy or sell any SeCUrities From time to time Wahlon & Co, r any artner thereof, may have an Interest ,n !orne or all of the securities mentioned herein The foregOing material has been prepo!Ired by U as a matler of Information, only II IS boned upon ,nformatlon believed reliable but not necessarily complete, n not guaranteed as accurate or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose Hldepenoent Inq\nry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 10, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 10, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - July 10, 1953
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i——— — ————– Walston &- Co. — MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISwH,Id) OfFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM -rABELL'S MARKET LETTER At the week's high of 272.83, the Dow-Jones industrials had regained .approximately one-third of the roughly 35-point decline from the January bigh of 295.06 to the June low of 260.75. This is the minimum normal retra- ac e mb ee nt tt eirn gaa i nd oawnndt rhe na vde. The rails, at the week's high of retraced 61 of their comparable 108.34, have shown 15-point decline. his is near the maximum two-thirds retracement of the previous decline. Thus, both averages are in a position to furnish a clue to near term action .. Strength in the rails that could carry to 110 would probably indicate at least a testing of the January high of 113.94. Failure of the industrials to- pU8h above the one-third minimum retracement would indicate definite weak- ne8S that would most likely carry over to the rails. Neither the short term or the intermediate term indicator is near overbought territory, so the mar- .ket could advance further without either index becoming vulnerable. Both in- dicators signalled a buy in June. At the moment, a sell signal would be given only by a decline or an inability to move ahead over the next two or three weeks. It would appear that news developments are needed to break the resent stalemate. Despite the fact that the averages are at historically high levels, a -gre,;.t many individual stocks are selling lower than in May, 1946 when the DOI-Jones industrial average was at 213 as compared with 270 at the present 1;ime. Out of 941 of the more activily traded issues on both the New York Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange, only 327 or 35 were selling above their 1946 highs. 65 are selling lower. Furthermore, 41 are selling l)eow their 1951 lows when the industrial average reached a low of 240. Only 26 of the total, or 27, show they are in a long term uptrend by holding above both the 1946 highs and the 1951 lows. A partial list of these issues is appended below. This is not necessarily a recommendation for purchase, despite the fact that several of these issues are in my recommended list. However, issues in this list have shown above average long term action and should be watched closely during periods of general market weakness for ad- vantageous buying levels. The partial list follows .Alpha Port .Cement Admiral Corp. Allied Chemical Aluminium,Dtd. Aluminum Co.Amer. Amerada AmErican Can Amer.Gas & Elec. Amer.Hawaiian S.S. ArneI'. Republics Arvin Industries ilteh.Top. & S.F. Atlantic Coast L. l3abcock & Wilcox l3arber Oil Bell Aircraft Bendix Aviation Bethlehem Steel Boden Borg Warner Brldgeport Brass B'Lwyrus Erie Buffalo Forge Carrier Corp. CaterpJllar Central & So.W. Champion Paper ChLcago Corp. Chic .East Ill. Chic.Pneu. Tool Cht'ysler Cincinnati Gas C .LT.Financial Clark Equipment Clevite Corp. Combustion Eng. Commercial Credit Consolo Edison Continental Can Continental Ins. Corning Glass Crown Zellerbach Denver & R.G.West. Dow Chemical DuPont Eaton Mfg. El Paso Natl.Gas Ex-Cell-O Corp. Federated Dept.S. Fidelity-Phenix Firestone Tire First -Natl.Stores Florida Power Food Fair Stores Gamewell Garrett Corp. General Electric GenerarMotors Gillette Co. Goodrich Gulf,Mobile & O. Hazeltine Corp. Hershey Chocolate Houston Lighting Illinois Central Ingersoll-Rand Radio Corp . I ns. Co. 0 f NA . Republic Steel LB.M. Revere Copper Intern'l Paper Safeway Stores Johns Manville St. Regis Paper Joy Mfg. Scott Paper Kansas City So. Seaboard Airline Kroger Co. Sears Roebuck Libbey-Owens F. Shamrock Oil Lone Star Gas So. Natural Gas Louisiana Gas So. Pacific R.R. McGraw Hill Pub. Southern Rwy. Mead Corp. Sperry Corp. Minn.-Honeywell Stand.Oil Calif. Minn. Mining Stand.Oil N. J. Mission Corp. Superior Oil M-K-T, pfd. Texas Pac.Coal & O. Motorola Texas Pac. Rwy. Nat'l Cash Reg. Transamerica Nat'l Dairy Union Bag Nat'l Lead, Union Pac. Rwy. New Mex.& Ariz. Union Carbide N.Y.,Chic.& St.L. United Aircrat No.Amer.Aviation United Biscuit North.Nat'l Gas United Gas Corp. Otis Elevator U. S. Steel Panhandle E.Pipe Warren Petroleum Penn- Dixie C. Western Mar;y-land Phelps Dodge Western Paclfic Philco Corp. Westinghouse Elec.' Phillips Pete. Worthington Corp. Pitts.Con.Coal Zenith Radio Pitts.Plate G. July la, 1953 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. ThIS memorandum IS not to be construed as an offer or solicihtion of offefs to buy or sell any securities From time to time Walston & Co. or any partner Thereof, m,)y have … n Hlterut in some Of all of the secuflties mentioned herein The foregOing material has been prepared by us as a m…tter of information only It Ii bUed upon information believed reliable but not lIecessarily complete, is not guaranteed as accurate or filial, and IS not intended to foreclose independent Inquiry .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 17, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 17, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - July 17, 1953
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— -….. – – Walston &Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY eXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,hed) OfFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEr; BY OIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM 'rABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 17, 1953 In my opinion, last week's market action was quite impressive despite the lack of volume. From the July 8th highs of 272083 in the Dow-Jones industrials and 108.34 in the rails, the averages declined to 266096 and .103069. This was a loss of about half of the advance from the June lows. At the week's lows, selling dried up and the market was able to recover a good portion of the losses by the end of the weeko The Friday intra-day highs were 271059 and 106026. Both the short-term and intermediate-term teGhnical indicators are showing favorable action and I would expect the ..advance to be resumed next week 0 Just how far it will continue is problematical. The industrials will run into heavy supply around 280 and it would seem unlikely that the January highs will be bettered by this average. The rails, however, could very easily work into new high territory above th December, 1952 high of 113.94. The action of individual issues and groups, however, is much more important than that of the averages. Starting with this letter T propose to review,in alphabetical order, the technical outlook for the various groups and some of the individual issues in each groupo AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENTS. This group reached its high in late 1951 and has been in a slow. downtrend ever since. The' decline has been quite severe i'1 scme instances. J.lo Case has dropped from 39 to a low of 17 and Deere & Co. declined from 36 to a low of 240 International Harvester, the 'qua.lity issue in the group, dropped from 37 to 270 These issues,at the June IONS, were close to their downside objectives and near strong support levels, IoNever, they will need considerable time to form new base patterns and the('e is heavy supply not too far above the market. The same thing applies to the smaller companies such as Gleane…. Harvester, Minneapolis Moline and 9l1ver cOkRoration. These issues should be bought only during periods of pr.lce wea eSs1iy patient holdel's 0 Would not follcw strength. The one ex- )eption is Allis Chalmers. This company is a leading maker of farm ma- chtnery, but this division accounts for only 60 of sales. The remainder is in electrical, metallurgical and heavy industial machinerx. Unlike the other companies mentioned above, it reached its high of 59 1/2 early this year rather than in 1951 ..'I'he stock has declined but, at present levels aound 48, the stock is in a strong support level. The other farm issues all J'eached their long term upside objectives late in 1951 but Allis Chalmers hal a pattern that still indicates considerably higher levels. Allis Chal- meJS pays a 4 annual dividend which was amply covered by the 7098 earned jn 1952. The president recently stated that 1953 earnings might be 10 to J.5j lower in 1953, out the 4 dividend would still be well covered in such an event. The yield of 8.3 and the attractive technical pattern suggests 'that other farm implement issues might well be switched into Allis Chalmers 0 AIR CONDITIONING. There are only two issues in this group – Carrier SQrporation and York Corporation. Carrier has long been one of my favoritee. LC was originally recommended in the 12-15 area and later at around 22-25. It had an upside objective of 45 which was reached at the early 1953 high of 45 1/4. Since that time the stock has been resting and has held in the 40,,44 area. From a technical viewpoint, ability to break out on the upside 'of this trading shelf would indicate a further advance to 50-52. A downside br'eakout to 39 would presumably indicate a decline to the 36-34 support area. may take some further time for this pattern to clarifyo York Corporation has a slightly different pattern than Carrier. It has been iD a slow uptrend from the 1949 low of 8. The early 1953 high was .230 A small top was formed with a downside indication of a possible 18. 'rl1e June low was around 18 1/2. There is strong support in the 19-17 area. Stock should be bought on dips as the long term indication is for higher levels 0 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. Thi. memorandum is not to be construed ,fit lin offer or solicitation of offers to buy or sell any securities From time to time Walston & Co, or any p.!lrtner Thereot, mat have an interest in 50me or all of the securities mentioned herel The foregoing material has been prepared by us as a matter of infrmatlon only It IS bllled upon Information believed reliable but not neeenanly complete, is not guaranteed lIS accurate or final, and IS not intended to foreclose Independent IIUjuiry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 24, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 24, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - July 24, 1953
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Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw;t,ld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 24, 1953 I still feel that the market will continue its selective uptrend. Last week's lows of 267.95 on the Dow-Jones industrials and 104.57 on the 'rails were above the previous week's lows of 266.96 and 103.69 which, in turn, were above the June lows of 260.75 and 99.06. Of course, a decline below 266.96 and 103.69 would destroy the constructive pattern of rising correction lows. On the bullish side, ability to move above the rally highs of 272.83 and 108.34 would be of considerable importance. The week's highs ,were 271.14 and 106.10. None of my other technical indicators show parti- cularly vulnerable patterns at the moment. Continuing my review of the various groups brings us to the AMUSEMENTS & AMUSEMENTS SUPPLIES. This is a grollp of diversified tec/1nical patterns. ihe out8tandllig quality issue in the group is, of course, Eastman Kodak. A quick glance at its graph would indicate that it appears to have done little marketwise. Its range from 1946 to date has 'been 54 and 38. However, if the graph is adjusted for the various 5 and 10 stock dividends, the graph shows a slow uptrend from about 20 to the present price of around 42. I would expect this slow growth trend to conti- 'nue and the stock appears to be a pllrchase for long term holding despite the low cash dividend payments. Other issues'in this group are of lower quality. General Precision Equipment, however, has a very interesting technical pattern. It has a long term upside potential considerably above the present level of 22. The stock reached a high of 27 both in 1951 and 1953. The 1.00 dividend is attractive to those in the higher income 'brackets because of its tax-free status. There is good support at the 22-20 level and the stock appears to be an interesting speculation. Decca Records at the current price level around 9, also pears to have speculative attraction. The stock has 801d as high as 12 l/ this year but has been depressed by the recent issue of rights. The company owns a 48 interest in Universal Pictures. From a technical point of view, the pattern on Decca shows considerably higher levels over the longer term. Bell & Howell, manufactQers of high quality photographic eqUipment, also 'has a constructive Jong term technical pattern. The stock, now around 20, sold as high as 37 in 1946 and 28 in 1952. No immediate move is indicated, 'but the stock should prove to be a worthwhile long term holding. Lionel ,op has reacted from 27 to 22 and meets support at 22-20. Some time may 'be needed to form a new base, however. The stock has been in an uptrend 'since 1948 and may need a little I'esting spelL Other issues in the group ,are Brunswick Balke at 18, Madison Square Garden at around 8, and U. S. , .Playing Card at 6L None of these issues show particularly outstanding patterns. APPAREL-CLOTHING & HOSIERY. There are very few outstanding issues in chis group. Some appear to be building up potential base patterns but, in the main, more work appears needed. Possibly the most interesting issue is Cluett, Peabody & Co. This stock appears to be slowly forming a strong technical pattern. It has advanced from a 1952 low of 25 to recent levels around 32. The 1951 high was 36 and the stock sold above 60 in 1946. Would advise purchase on minor price dips. Hart, Schaffner & Marx, now around 23 3/4, has an interesting upside potential and yields 6.6. There is no indication of an immediate move. Another interesting situation in the group is Manhattan Shirt Company now at 23. The stock has held in the 20-25 area . for a considerable period of time and appears to be under slow accumUlation. Reliance Mfg. at 11 also appears relatively attractive but slow. GoodallSanford, now at around 13, has most likely reached its low at 12, but may need considerable time to form a new pattern. In the hosiery group, MoJud Hosiery (13 1/2), Real Silk Hosiery (21) and Wayne Knitting Mills, (22), have potentially interesting patterns and should be held . Would switch AdamS-Millis, Gotham HOSiery and Phoenix. HOSiery into issues with more favorable patterns. Next week, Automobile and Truck issues will be reviewed. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON &, CO. Prospectus available on request. Tmhiys memorandum Is not to be have an Intered In some construed or all of III 4n, oHr or solic!tatton of oHers to buy or sell any securities From time to time the securities mentioned herein The fore!jlolng mtlteritll htls been prepared by us Wahton & Co, tiS tI mtltter of or any partner thereof, Information only It is btl sed upon Inform4tlon believed reliable but not necessarily complete, h not guartlnteed as accurtlte or !intll, tlnd is not Intended to foreclose indep&ndent Inquiry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 31, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 31, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - July 31, 1953
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r MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY .EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISwihed.,dj OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LETTER July 31, 1953 , On increasing volume. the Dow-Jones industrial average attained new , 'high territory since the low of 260.75 on June 15th. Friday's high was ,' '2(5.85 on vo,ume of 1,320,000 shares. The industrials have now retrac;!u approximately 43 of the decline from the January high of 295.06. A two- 'J;hird recovery would be about 283. There is considerable supply in the in- 'dlstrial average between 280 and 285. ' , The rail average, while it also has advanced during the past week, was still below the July recovery high of 108.34 which was a two-third re- , i;;acement of the decline from the December 1952 highs. Friday's high on tile rails was 106.23, , The intermediate term technical indicators, which gave a buy signal .., on June 23rd, are still not in a vulnerable position so it would appear ,hat the advance can carry f'urther. The objectives on my work indicate the , ;,'()babili ty of an advance to 280-285 in the industrial average. Ability to ,.'.''nach 109 in the rail aversge would indicate at least a testing of the high ,.)1' 113.94. ., …,.,.', AUTOMOBILES – PASSENGER – TRUCK AND BUS. There has been considerable 'Ja!'isi'mess voiced recently on the outlook for automobile production for '-,he balance of 1953. Reports are that the used car market has backed up ,,,and that production would be curtailed sharply in the new-car field. Of '()LlrSe, these reports are not new and have been present at recurring inter- .. '''hIs for t.he last three years. That is why it has been possible to buy , '-eneral Motors and Chrysler at, the generous yields and ,price-times-earnings ,'c,ios prevailing Since 1949. Both these stocks, particularly Chrysler, l'ave had severe declines from the 1953 highs. Chrysler, at last week's ,lew 0 f 69 1/8, had suffered a 28 dec line from 96 3/4 and General Mot ors, .. a the week's low of around 58, had declined 16 from 69 3/4., From a tech,' ,',Lcal viewpoint, neither of these issues appear particularly vulnerable at ,a'01md prese'1t levels. Chc'sler meets strong support in the 69-65 area .' 1,;'JDeral Motors l'1'!d a downside objective, of about 58 which has been reached 8'10. there is also very strong 'support in the 58-55 area. On the other hand, 'nE!lther issue has built up a sufficient base to indicate very much of ari upward move. This may take some further time. Of the two issues, General 'lVi()';o'!'s appears the more attractive for 'investment portfolios. The best ' 'p,asible upside objective-a't the moment-.on' Chrysler appears to be about the ',7tl–80'level and would be inclined to reduce 'commitments in this issue if .., ',rlut level were reached. . , Two of the secondary motor stocks, Studebaker' and Nash Kelvinator, cc'LS appear to have reached strong support levels at last week's lows of 'c9 3/8 for Nash and 28 5/8 for Studebaker. /.i-,reo'e.-, of the two issues I PH, fer Nash Kelvlnator as the upside objective seems to be greater .than in , S ,'.lebaker. Studebaker will run into a heavy supply of s.tock at 34-35 and w\.I.cld advise lightening commitments at that level. In fact, a switch from ,sh in';o Studebaker would appear advisable in accounts concerned mainly w'L'r capital appreciation. The other automobile issues, namely Hudson r;,!,'rs, Kaiser Mfg., and Packard, have mediocre technical patterns and in my ;)p!Lnicn should be avoidedo ,,', a goup, the truck stocks also appear unattractive. They appear ') offer little chance of price appreciation. ACF Brill, Diamond T, Divco, ,der'al Fawlck and Mack Truck have all suffered severe declines and are iiii)s-t likely near their lows. However, this also appl'les to Twin Coach. !,;wever, there are no indications of any im!nediate muves and better opporc'.l,nities for price appreciation are available in other groups. The long tErll' patterns also are not particularly favorable. ,White Motors, Which has hEld up bette'r than the average truck issue, has a pottmtially vulnerable p',ti;ern and would advise switching out of it into such situations as Blaw- Rcx, Bucyrus, Ell '-ott, etc, 'Rea Motors, which is heavy in defense orders, ,i.E! a speculative issue and here also there is a technical pattern that is p,tentially vulnerable and switching appears advisable. St.Regis Paper, for pT.mp!e, appears more attractive technically. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTO!i & CO. This memorandum h not to b. construed as an offer or solicitation of offers to buy or 14!!1I oIIny seCUrltl1ll From time to time W.,lston & Co. or any partner thereof, mlly hav, an interest in some or all of the securities mentioned herein Thill foregOing material hu been prepared by us as a matter of information only It is bued upon information believed reliable but not necenarlly comDlete, is not guaranteed as accurate or final, and IS not intended to foreclose Independent InqulfY

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